Inflation, currency substitution and dollarization: The case of Argentina

This dissertation discusses the relationship between inflation, currency substitution and dollarization that has taken place in Argentina for the past several decades.^ First, it is shown that when consumers are able to hold only domestic monetary balances (without capital mobility) an increase in the rate of inflation will produce a balance of payments deficit. We then look at the same issue but with heterogeneous consumers, this heterogeneity being generated by non-proportional lump-sum transfers.^ Second, we discussed some necessary assumptions related to currency substitution models and concluded that there was no a-priori conclusion on whether currencies should be assumed to be "cooperant" or "non-cooperant" in utility. That is to say, whether individuals held different currencies together or one instead of the other.^ Third, we went into discussing the issue of currency substitution as being a constraint on governments' inflationary objectives rather than a choice of those governments to avoid hyperinflations. We showed that imperfect substitutability between currencies does not "reduce the scope for rational (hyper)inflationary processes" as it had been previously argued. It will ultimately depend on the parametrization used and not on the intrinsic characteristics of imperfect substitutability between currencies.^ We further showed that in Argentina, individuals have been able to endogenize the money supply by holding foreign monetary balances. We argued that the decision to hold foreign monetary balances by individuals is always a second best due to the trade-off between holding foreign monetary balances and consumption. For some levels of income, consumption, and foreign inflation, individuals would prefer to hold domestic monetary balances rather than foreign ones.^ We then modeled the distinction between dollarization and currency substitution. We concluded that although dollarization is necessary for currency substitution to take place, the decision to use foreign monetary balances for transactions purposes is largely independent from the dollarization process.^ Finally, we concluded that Argentina should not fully dollarize its economy because dollarization is always a second best to using a domestic currency. Further, we argued that a fixed exchange system would be better than a flexible exchange rate or a "crawling-peg" system because of the characteristics of the political system and the possibilities of "mass praetorianism" to develop, which is intricately linked to "populist" solutions. ^

Historical analysis of two contemporary issues at the International Community School of Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire: Local -hired and overseas -hired teacher relationships. Community perceptions of the U.S. Embassy at ICSA

This study was a qualitative investigation to ascertain and describe two of the current issues at the International Community School of Abidjan, examine their historical bases, and analyze their impact on the school environment.^ Two issues emerged during the inquiry phase of this study: (1) the relationship between local-hired and overseas-hired teachers in light of the January 1994 devaluation which polarized the staff by negating a four-year salary scale that established equity, (2) the school community's wide variance in the perceived power that the U.S. Embassy has on school operations based on its role as ICSA's founding sponsor.^ A multiple studies approach was used in gathering data. An extensive examination of the school's archives was used to reconstruct an historical overview of ICSA. An initial questionnaire was distributed to teachers and administrators at an educational conference to determine the scope of the 1994 devaluation of the West and Central African CFA and its impact on school personnel in West African American-sponsored overseas schools (ASOS). Personal interviews were conducted with the school staff, administration, school board members, and relevant historical participants to determine the principal issues at ICSA at that time. The researcher, an overseas-hired teacher, also used participant observations to collect data. Findings based on these sources were used to analyze the two issues from an historical perspective and to form conclusions.^ Findings in this study pertaining to the events induced by the French and African governments' decision to implement a currency devaluation in January 1994 were presented in ex post-facto chronological narrative form to describe the events which transpired, describe the perception of school personnel involved in these events, examine the final resolution and interpret these events within a historical framework for analysis.^ The topic of the U.S. Embassy and its role at ICSA emerged inductively from open-ended personal interviews conducted over the course of a year. Contradictory perspectives were examined and researched for accuracy and cause. The results of this inquiry presented the U.S. Embassy role at ICSA from a two-sided perspective, examined the historical role of the Embassy, and presented means by which the role and responsibility of the U.S. Embassy could best be communicated to the school community.^ The final chapter provides specific actions for mediation of problems stemming from these issues, implications for administrators and teachers currently involved in overseas schools or considering the possibility, and suggestions for future inquiries.^ Examination of a two-tier salary scale for local-hired and overseas-hired teachers generated the following recommendations: movement towards a single salary scale when feasible, clearly stated personnel policies and full disclosure of benefits, a uniform certification standard, professional development programs and awareness of the impact of this issue on staff morale.^ Divergent perceptions and attitudes toward the role of the U.S. Embassy produced these recommendations: a view towards limiting the number of Americans on ASOS school boards, open school board meetings, selection of Embassy Administrative Officers who can educate school communities on the exact role of the Embassy, educating parents through the outreach activities that communicate American educational philosophy and involve all segments of the international community, and a firm effort on the part of the ASOS to establish the school's autonomy from special interests. ^

Inflation, currency substitution, and dollarization : the case of Argentina

This dissertation discusses the relationship between inflation, currency substitution and dollarization that has taken place in Argentina for the past several decades. First, it is shown that when consumers are able to hold only domestic monetary balances (without capital mobility) an increase in the rate of inflation will produce a balance of payments deficit. We then look at the same issue but with heterogeneous consumers, this heterogeneity being generated by non-proportional lump-sum transfers. Second, we discussed some necessary assumptions related to currency substitution models and concluded that there was no a-priori conclusion on whether currencies should be assumed to be "cooperant" or "non-cooperant" in utility. That is to say, whether individuals held different currencies together or one instead of the other. Third, we went into discussing the issue of currency substitution as being a constraint on governments inflationary objectives rather than a choice of those governments to avoid hyperinflations. We showed that imperfect substitutability between currencies does not "reduce the scope for rational (hyper)inflationary processes" as it had been previously argued. It will ultimately depend on the parametrization used and not on the intrinsic characteristics of imperfect substitutability between currencies. We further showed that in Argentina, individuals have been able to endogenize the money supply by holding foreign monetary balances. We argued that the decision to hold foreign monetary balances by individuals is always a second best due to the trade-off between holding foreign monetary balances and consumption. For some levels of income, consumption, and foreign inflation, individuals would prefer to hold domestic monetary balances rather than foreign ones. We then modeled the distinction between dollarization and currency substitution. We concluded that although dollarization is necessary for currency substitution to take place, the decision to use foreign monetary balances for transactions purposes is largely independent from the dollarization process. Finally, we concluded that Argentina should not fully dollarize its economy because dollarization is always a second best to using a domestic currency. Further, we argued that a fixed exchange system would be better than a flexible exchange rate or a "crawling-peg" system because of the characteristics of the political system and the possibilities of "mass praetorianism" to develop, which is intricately linked to "populist" solutions.

Devaluation, competitiveness and new business formation in emerging countries

In September 2010, Brazil’s Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, used the term “currency war” with reference to monetary policies implemented by different countries to generate an artificial devaluation of their currency and achieve a cheaper, more competitive domestic economy that may be attractive to foreign investors. Similar cases have been documented since the 1930s Great Depression, when several countries abandoned the gold standard as backing for their currencies. More recently, a large-scale asset purchase by Japan’s Central Bank in 2013 was singled out as a strategy aimed at generating devaluation of the yen. This research uses statistics of new business formation density reported by Doing Business for 30 emerging countries in the period 2004-2011 to evaluate the impact of devaluation measured by the behavior of the real effective exchange rate (REER) on the rate of new business formation (NBF). It is determined how variables associated with competitiveness affect the relationship between devaluation and business formation. Results show that devaluation has a positive effect on NBF in the short term, which gets diluted in the long term. Countries with greater competitiveness have less dependence on devaluation to increase the number of businesses.

The Origins and Legacy of a Currency Board in Argentina

This is a qualitative case study of the adoption of a currency board in Argentina in 1991. It presents a discursive analysis and intellectual history of four overlaying and mutually influencing stories of Convertibility’s adoption. It is (1) the story of how Menem aligned himself to the Washington Consensus as a means to win a Presidential election. This ideological alignment influences and is influenced by a (2) reconstitution of the Peronist Party’s historically entrenched identity. This in turn re-fashion the whole system of interest articulation and relative power of interest groups in Argentina. The adoption of a currency board also marks the pace of (3) the entrenchment neoliberal interests across a domestic network of neoliberal think-tanks, technocrats, politicians, and “technopoles” articulating neoliberal interests outside of the Washington Consensus, within an International Neoliberal Network. Argentina’s adoption of a currency board falls in line with the Corner Solutions, a neoliberal doctrine promoted to influence developing countries to adopt two forms of exchange rate regimes that allow for less government involvement, including a currency board. Argentina starts as a test country and then becomes (4) an ideological stepping stone to help promote the creation of currency boards across more “developing” countries. These stories are not sequential but concurrent, and they help advance an alternative critique of neoliberalism that focuses on specifics to induce case-specific lessons versus a theory claiming to provide any universal truth.

Is there timing ability in currency markets? Evidence from ADR issuances

Is there timing ability in the exchange rate markets? We address this question by examining foreign firms' decisions to issue American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). Specifically, we test whether foreign firms consider currency market conditions in their ADR issuance decisions and, in doing so, display some ability to time their local exchange rate market. We study ADR issuances in the U.S. stock market between 1976 and 2003. We find that foreign firms tend to issue ADRs after their local currency has been abnormally strong against the U.S. dollar and before their local currency becomes abnormally weak. This evidence is statistically significant even after controlling for local and U.S. past and future stock market performance and predicable exchange rate movements. Currency market timing is especially significant i) for value companies, relatively small (yet absolutely large) companies issuing relatively large amounts of ADRs, companies with higher currency exposure, manufacturing companies, and emerging market companies, ii) during currency crises (when mispricings are rife) and after the integration of the issuer's local financial market with the world capital markets, iii) when the ADR issue raises capital for the issuing firm (Level III ADR), and iv) regardless of the identity of the underwriting investment bank. Currency market timing is also economically significant since it translates into total savings for the issuing firms of about $646 million (or 1.86% of the total capital-raising ADR issue volume). In contrast, we find no evidence of currency timing ability in a control sample made of non-capital raising ADRs (Level II ADRs). These findings suggest that some companies may have, at least occasionally, private information about foreign exchange.

Nursing and competencies - a natural fit : the politics of skill/competency formation in nursing

The last two decades have seen a significant restructuring of work across Australia and other industrialised economies, a critical part of which has been the appearance of competency based education and assessment. The competency movement is about creating a more flexible and mobile labour force to increase productivity and it does so by redefining work as a set of transferable or ‘soft’ generic skills that are transportable and are the possession of the individual. This article sought to develop an analysis of competency based clinical assessment of nursing students across a bachelor of nursing degree course. This involved an examination of a total of 406 clinical assessment tools that covered the years 1992-2009 and the three years of a bachelor degree. Data analysis generated three analytical findings: the existence of a hierarchy of competencies that prioritises soft skills over intellectual and technical skills; the appearance of skills as personal qualities or individual attributes; and the absence of context in assessment. The article argues that the convergence in nursing of soft skills and the professionalisation project reform has seen the former give legitimacy to the enduring invisibility and devaluation of nursing work.

An economic overview of the fish and shrimp production of the Nigeria fish trawling industry under the structural adjustment programme

Over the years, Nigeria have witnessed different government with different policy measures. Against the negative consequences of the past policies, the structural adjustment was initiated in 1986. Its aims is to effectively altar and restructure the consumption patterns of the economy as well as to eliminate price distortions and heavy dependence on the oil and the imports of consumer goods and services. Within the period of implementation, there has been a decreasing trend in yearly fish catch landings and sizes but the reverse in shrimping. There is also a gradual shift from fishing to shrimping, from the vessels purchased with 83.3% increase of shrimpers from 1985 to 1989. Decreasing fish catch sizes and quantity aggravated by the present high cost of fishing coupled with the favourable export market for Nigeria shrimp tend to influence the sift. This economic situation is the result of the supply measures of SAP through the devaluation of the Naira. There is also overconcentration of vessels on the inshore waters as majority of the vessels are old and low powers hence incapable of fishing on the deep sea. Rotterdam price being paid for automotive gas oil (AGO) by fishing industries is observed to be discriminating and unhealthy to the growth of the industry as it is exceedingly high and unstable thus affecting planning for fishing operation. Fuel alone takes 43% of the total cost of operation. The overall consequences is that fishing days are loss and therefore higher overhead cost. It was concluded that for a healthy growth and sustainable resources of our marine fishery under the structural adjustment programme licensing of new fishing vessels should be stopped immediately and the demand side of SAP should be employed by subsidizing high powered fishing vessels which can operate effectively on the deep sea

US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of 'Cheap Money'

In this paper, we employ a unique dataset of actual US dollar (USD) forward positions against a number of currencies taken by so-called Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). We investigate to what extent these positions exhibit a pattern of USD carry trading or other patterns of currency trading over the recent period of the ultra-loose US monetary policy. Our analysis indeed shows that USD positions against emerging market currencies are characterised by a pattern of carry trading. That is, the USD, as the lower yielding currency, is associated with short positions. The payoff distributions of these positions, moreover, are found to have positive Sharpe ratios, negative skewness and high kurtosis. On the other hand, we find that USD positions against other advanced country currencies have a pattern completely opposite to carry trading which is in line with uncovered interest parity trading; that is, the lower (higher) yielding currency is associated with long (short) positions.

Mythotextuality and the evolution of ideologies the reuse of the Epic of Gilgamesh in North American texts

When the scribes of ancient Mesopotamia rewrote the Epic of Gilgamesh over a period of over two thousand years, the modifications made reflected the social transformations occurring during the same era. The dethroning of the goddess Inanna-Ishtar and the devaluation of other female characters in the evolving Epic of Gilgamesh coincided with the declining status of women in society. Since the 1960s, translations into modern languages have been readily available. The Mesopotamian myth has been reused in a wide variety of mythic and mythological texts by Quebecois, Canadian and American authors. Our analysis of the first group of mythic texts, written in the 1960s and 1970s, shows a reversal of the tendency of the Mesopotamian texts. Written at a time when the feminist movement was transforming North American society, these retellings feature a goddess with her high status restored and her ancient attributes re-established. Another group of writers, publishing in the 1980s and 1990s, makes a radical shift away from these feminist tendencies while still basically rewriting the Epic. In this group of mythic texts, the goddess and other female characters find their roles reduced while the male gods and characters have expanded and glorified roles. The third group of texts analysed does not rewrite the Epic. The Epic is reused here intertextually to give depth to mythological works set in the twentieth century or later. The dialogue created between the contemporary text and the Epic emphasises the role that the individual has in society. A large-scale comparative mythotextual study of texts that share a common hypotext can, especially when socio-historical factors are considered, provide a window onto the relationship between text and society. A comparative study of how the Epic of Gilgamesh is rewritten and referred to intertextually through time can help us relativize the understanding of our own time and culture.

Testing for tail breaks in currency returns

In this work project we study the tail properties of currency returns and analyze whether changes in the tail indices of these series have occurred over time as a consequence of turbulent periods. Our analysis is based on the methods introduced by Quintos, Fan and Phillips (2001), Candelon and Straetmans (2006, 2013), and their extensions. Specifically, considering a sample of daily data from December 31, 1993 to February 13, 2015 we apply the recursive test in calendar time (forward test) and in reverse calendar time (backward test) and indeed detect falls and rises in the tail indices, signifying increases and decreases in the probability of extreme events.

"Welcome to my life" : the experiences of single mothers who are the recipients of multiple state provided benefits

Abstract This research takes the lens of social reproduction as a starting point for an examination of the effects of recent social welfare reforms on the lives o.fsingle mothers. As the cumulative effects o.f diminishing state provided benefits take hold, tensions are heightened as single mothers internalize the insecurity of earning an income in 11 capitalist labour market, while trying to carry out all that is involved in social reproduction with inadequate means of survival. Through interviewing single mothers who are the recipients of mUltiple state provided benefits (social assistance, student loans, subsidized housing and subsidized childcare), this thesis illuminates the cOl1linued regulation of women in an effort to assure that social reproduction is occurring at the lowest cost possible. State provided benefits are set lip in such a way that it is near impossible for single mothers to make ends meet without entering the labour force or entering into co-residential relationships. This push towards the labour force and/or marriage via punitive welfare policies illuminates the devaluation of the labour that is done at home. Through interviewing 5 single mothers, I will demonstrate the extensive labour that goes into maintaining their households. In addition .J case managers are interviewed. The employees of social assistance, subsidized hOllsing, subsidized childcare and student loans, have much agency in deeming who is worthy of receiving benefits. The employees of these agencies have the ability to make these women's lives easier or more complicated by how the workers interpret the policy regulations. Social policies are of paramount importance in the quest for women's equality and thus have consequences for how women's daily lives are organized. The rules and regulations that govern the individual policies are complex and bureaucratic and have implications for the ways in which women must organize their lives in order to survive. The shifts in social policy have been guided by neo-liberal assumptions with a focus on individual responsibility and a market-modeled welfare state. The caring work that is involved in raising children to be productive in a capitalist society is ignored or devalued in current policies. The emphasis in each polic.:v is on getting women who receive benefits into the paid work force, with little facilitation or investment into the caring work these women do on a daily basis that in turn supports capitalism. Policies, such as social assistance, subsidized housing, subsidized childcare and student loans, are set up in such a way that ignores the reality of women's day-to-day lives and devalues the necessary work done at home. It takes an abundance of labour and strategizing for women to seek out necessary means of survival, labour that is amplified when a woman is dealing with mUltiple slate provided benefits.

Waxing Ornamental : Reading a Poetics of Excess in Virginia Woolf’s Orlando and Djuna Barnes’s Nightwood

Ce mémoire de maîtrise porte sur une poétique de l’excès dans Orlando de Virginia Woolf et Nightwood de Djuna Barnes comme une stratégie combattant la tendance qu’a le modernisme à dévaloriser l’écriture des femmes comme étant trop ornementale. J’expose comment Ezra Pound, T.S. Eliot, et Wyndham Lewis tentent de récupérer la notion du détail afin d’affirmer une poétique masculin. Je fais appel également aux oeuvres de l’architecte autrichien Adolf Loos qui souligne sa dénonciation de l’ornement comme régressif. Dans Orlando et Nightwood, je considère l’excès associé au corps. Je soutiens que, dans ces textes, les corps dépassent les limites de la représentation moderniste. Je considère aussi comment Orlando et Nightwood font apparaître la narration comme ornement et écrivent excessivement l’histoire et le temps. Pour conclure, je propose une façon de lire l’excès afin de reconceptualiser le potentiel de production de la signification dans des textes modernistes.

A simple test of momentum in foreign exchange markets

This study proposes a new method for testing for the presence of momentum in nominal exchange rates, using a probabilistic approach. We illustrate our methodology estimating a binary response model using information on local currency / US dollar exchange rates of eight emerging economies. After controlling for important variables a§ecting the behavior of exchange rates in the short-run, we show evidence of exchange rate inertia; in other words, we Önd that exchange rate momentum is a common feature in this group of emerging economies, and thus foreign exchange traders participating in these markets are able to make excess returns by following technical analysis strategies. We Önd that the presence of momentum is asymmetric, being stronger in moments of currency depreciation than of appreciation. This behavior may be associated with central bank intervention

Análisis de perdurabilidad de las empresas que se acogieron a la ley 550 de 1999

A finales del Siglo XX, Colombia se encontraba en un escenario bastante complicado en relación con la situación del país en años anteriores. Todo esto, debido a que el país se vio afligido por una serie de situaciones adversas: el desempleo, la violencia y catástrofes naturales, fueron una de las muchas cosas que generaron un grave periodo de recesión en el país. Frente a estos desafortunados acontecimientos, y en búsqueda de propiciar y fortalecer la economía del país, el Gobierno decide en su momento, intervenir en la economía local, principalmente en el Sector Privado, con el fin de normalizar la actividad productiva del país en todos los sectores económico. Para esto, el Gobierno en conjunto con la Superintendencia de Sociedades y teniendo en cuenta la devaluación de la moneda, las altas tasas de interés que existían en ese entonces, y, la disminución de la demanda, deciden desarrollar mecanismos de conciliación tanto para los deudores como para los acreedores con el fin de reactivar la economía y mejorar la situación financiera y contable del sector productivo y de servicios, con el fin de superar la crisis en la que se encontraban sumergidos en ese entonces. La ley 550, constituida en el año 1999 y también conocida como la Ley de Insolvencia Económica, otorgo herramientas para la reestructuración de empresas que decidieron acogerse a dicha ley, a un total de 1.323 empresas que se encontraban en proceso de liquidación. Para poder acceder a este proceso de reestructuración, además de cumplir con ciertos requisitos que se mencionaran posteriormente, las empresas que podían acceder a esta ley, debían encontrarse en mora en el pago de 2 o más obligaciones por un periodo mayor a noventa días, o, se debían encontrar envueltas en por lo menos 2 demandas ejecutivas por mora en el pago de cualquier deuda adquirida en nombre de dichas empresas.