Application of nonlinear filtering to credit risk

Merton's model views equity as a call option on the asset of the firm. Thus the asset is partially observed through the equity. Then using nonlinear filtering an explicit expression for likelihood ratio for underlying parameters in terms of the nonlinear filter is obtained. As the evolution of the filter itself depends on the parameters in question, this does not permit direct maximum likelihood estimation, but does pave the way for the `Expectation-Maximization' method for estimating parameters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New Ventures’ influence on the Growth of SME Employment, Production and Exports in India: Does Institutional Credit matter?

New ventures are considered to be a major source of small firm growth. In Indian context the contribution of new ventures in terms of new employment, production and exports has largely remained unexplored. It is equally important and unexplored, the significance of the contribution of bank credit to the growth of new ventures in India. This paper is an attempt to throw light on these two aspects. The research is based on secondary data of the liberalized period provided by Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India. To analyze the influence of bank credit growth on new ventures and the influence of new ventures on growth of additional employment, additional production and additional exports, we used a Bi-Variate Vector Auto Regression. Based on the model generated, Granger causality tests are conducted to obtain the results. The study found that rate of growth of bank credit causes the number of new ventures, implying any increase in the rate of growth of bank credit will be beneficial to the growth of new ventures. The study also concluded that new ventures are not causing the growth of additional employment or additional production. However new ventures cause the growth of additional exports. This is reasonable as entrepreneurs start their new ventures with minimum possible employment and relatively low rate of capacity utilization and they come up to take advantage of the process of globalization by catering to the international market.

Pricing credit derivatives

The financial crisis set off by the default of Lehman Brothers in 2008 leading to disastrous consequences for the global economy has focused attention on regulation and pricing issues related to credit derivatives. Credit risk refers to the potential losses that can arise due to the changes in the credit quality of financial instruments. These changes could be due to changes in the ratings, market price (spread) or default on contractual obligations. Credit derivatives are financial instruments designed to mitigate the adverse impact that may arise due to credit risks. However, they also allow the investors to take up purely speculative positions. In this article we provide a succinct introduction to the notions of credit risk, the credit derivatives market and describe some of the important credit derivative products. There are two approaches to pricing credit derivatives, namely the structural and the reduced form or intensity-based models. A crucial aspect of the modelling that we touch upon briefly in this article is the problem of calibration of these models. We hope to convey through this article the challenges that are inherent in credit risk modelling, the elegant mathematics and concepts that underlie some of the models and the importance of understanding the limitations of the models.

Consumer Expertise or Credit Risk? An empirical analysis of mortgage pricing

Loan mortgage interest rates are usually the result of a bank-customer negotiation process. Credit risk, consumer cross-buying potential, bundling, financial market competition and other features affecting the bargaining power of the parties could affect price. We argue that, since mortgage loan is a complex product, consumer expertise could be a relevant factor for mortgage pricing. Using data on mortgage loan prices for a sample of 1055 households for the year 2005 (Bank of Spain Survey of Household Finances, EFF-2005), and including credit risk, costs, potential capacity of the consumer to generate future business and bank competition variables, the regression results indicate that consumer expertise-related metrics are highly significant as predictors of mortgage loan prices. Other factors such as credit risk and consumer cross-buying potential do not have such a significant impact on mortgage prices. Our empirical results are affected by the credit conditions prior to the financial crisis and could shed some light on this issue.

Credit financing of aquaculture programmes -- a review

A discussion is presented on the role of credit financing in the development of aquaculture programmes in Nigeria. The constraints militating against credit availability to aquaculture vis-a-vis the competition between aquaculture and other agricultural and industrial sectors for the allocation of available credit facilities are examined. Possible ways of enhancing preferential allocation of capital to the aquaculture industry from the various sources of credit available to the Nigerial agricultural economy are suggested

O credit scoring em apoio ao risco de crédito: a identificação de variáveis que contribuem no sucesso da implantação de empresas franqueadas

A concessão de crédito a empresas que participam do mercado consiste na entrega de um ativo em determinado momento, com a promessa de pagamento deste bem ou direito em data futura. Tal situação se configura como um evento incerto, pois existe a possibilidade de que tal obrigação não seja honrada pela promitente compradora, originando desta forma, o risco de crédito. Cabe à parte concessora do ativo que origina o risco de crédito, verificar a capacidade de seu cliente em cumprir o compromisso futuro assumido, analisando as variáveis que sugerem o sucesso da operação de crédito. As empresas que se encontram em fase de implantação caracterizam-se não somente pela ausência de histórico das variáveis acima, como também pelo aumento considerável do risco de continuidade. Tal situação é comprovada por pesquisas realizadas em empresas com até cinco anos de atuação. A impossibilidade na mensuração da capacidade de crédito proporcionada por este cenário, ocasiona severa restrição creditícia às empresas novas, principalmente ao crédito de longo prazo, imprescindível nesta fase de investimentos. Entretanto, esta restrição não se verifica em empresas de franquia, cujo empreendedor tem o privilégio de iniciar seu negócio com linhas de crédito de investimentos já prontas no mercado com esta finalidade. Este estudo objetiva identificar quais as características presentes em empresas franqueadas que permitem a concessão de crédito segura na fase de implantação por parte das instituições financeiras e se tais características podem discriminar variáveis que são determinantes no sucesso da franqueada proponente ao crédito bancário. A aplicação de análise fatorial em banco de dados com empresas de franquia permitiu identificar com sucesso um grupo de sete principais variáveis principais, que serviram de base a um modelo de regressão logística e análise discriminante. O modelo de regressão logística mostrou-se bom para a melhora da probabilidade de acerto de empresas solventes ao passo que a análise discriminante não apresentou melhora nesses resultados.

Safety net or debt net?: ties between marketing and credit in coastal Bangladesh

Three fishing communities in coastal Bangladesh namely: 1) Hindu community near Chittagong; 2) Muslim community in Rehania; and 3) Bhuddist community of Rakhaipara were studied, and each shared the same credit marketing system.

Rural women's access to credit

To enhance the role of rural women in development, NGOs have assisted in the establishment of credit programs.

Credit and Debt in medieval England, c.1180-c.1350

Schofield, Phillipp, and N. J. Mayhew, eds., Credit and Debt in medieval England, c.1180-c.1350 (Oxford: Oxbow Books, 2002), pp.x+164 RAE2008

The Irish credit union movement: member participation and organisational effectiveness

This thesis explores the relationship between organisational effectiveness and member participation in Irish credit unions. It is hypothesised that a positive relationship exists between both variables. Co-operative literature suggests that co-operatives require the involvement of the members in identifying and meeting their own needs in order to be effective organisations. Previous research studies into the issue across a variety of organisational types have shown mixed results. Related research into credit unions is sparse. The primary research undertaken is both quantitative and qualitative in approach. Organisational effectiveness is examined in both quantitative and qualitative terms. Member participation, being an organisational process, is examined in qualitative terms. Indicators of organisational effectiveness, specific to credit unions, are drawn up and form a framework through which effectiveness is examined. A typology and indicators of member participation are also developed and form a framework through which member participation is examined. The case study method is used primarily, to examine organisational effectiveness and member participation in Irish credit unions. A case study of a theoretical credit union, which is based on a composite of good practice in credit unions in Ireland and internationally, is also drawn up to develop the analysis further. The case studies allow an analysis of both organisational effectiveness and member participation, as well as an exploration of the relationship between the two. The findings support the hypothesis that there is a direct relationship between the two variables. In order to be effective, credit unions must involve their members in identifying their needs and in designing services to meet these needs. At present, they do not do this to any large extent. In order to continue to meet the needs of their members and to compete in the financial services sector, credit unions will need to find ways of involving members, drawing on good practice in other co-operatives. This will be critical to their continued success.

The impact of saving and credit cooperatives on food security in the West Amhara Region of Ethiopia

In rural Ethiopia, among other things, lack of adequate financial service is considered as the basic problem to alleviate rural poverty and to solve the problem of food insecurity. Commercial banks are restricted to urban centres. Providing rural financial service through RUSACCO to the poor has been proposed as a tool for economic development and for achieving food security. Evidence from research in this regard has been so far scanty, especially in rural Ethiopia. The aims of this study are to analyze the determinants of membership, to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors that influence members’ participation in RUSACCOs and to quantify the impact of RUSACCOs on member households’ food security. The study was conducted in two purposely selected woredas in the Amhara region one from food insecure (Lay Gayint woreda) and the other from food secure (Dejen woreda). Six RUSACCOs were selected randomly from these two woredas. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected. Key informant interviews, focus group discussions and survey techniques were used to collect primary data. Collected data was then analyzed using mixed methods depending on the nature of data. For quantitative data analysis appropriate statistical models were used. The study result reveals that the number of members in each RUSACCO is very small. However, the majority of non-member respondents are willing to join RUSACCO. Lack of information about the benefits of RUSACCO membership is the main problem why many rural poor do not join RUSACCOs. Members participate in different aspects of the cooperatives, starting from attending general assembly up to board membership. They also participate actively in saving and borrowing activities of RUSACCO. The majority of the respondents believe the RUSACCO is a vital instrument in combating food insecurity. The empirical findings indicate that gender, marital status, occupation, educational level, participation in local leadership and participation in other income generation means determine the decision of rural poor to join a RUSACCO or not. The amount of saving is determined by household head occupation, farming experience and income level. While age of household head, primary occupation, farming experience, date of membership, annual total consumption expenditure, amount of saving and participation in other income generation activities influence members’ amount of borrowing by RUSACCO members. Finally, the study confirms that RUSACCO participation improves household food security. RUSACCO membership has made positive impact on household total consumption expenditure and food expenditure.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

Giving credit where it's due

Discusses the entitlement to occupation rent where one party to a relationship no longer lives in the matrimonial or family home in which he/she has an interest and a right of occupation. Describes the case law illustrating that forceful exclusion of the non-occupying party is not a prerequisite to entitlement to an occupation rent. Considers the calculation of the parties' respective credits where the occupying party has made mortgage repayments since the separation and the other is entitled to an occupation rent.