Bwembya Chikolwa interviewed by Nicole Lindsay for Herald Sun 20th August 2009, Property trusts hit hard by US crash,

Listed Australian property companies wrote off more than $8.5 billlion from their ill-fated US investment adventures during this reporting season.

An investigation of differences in crash characteristics between males and females involved in a fatigue-related crash or close call event

There is consensus among community and road safety agencies that driver fatigue is a major road safety issue and it is well known that excessive fatigue is linked with an increased risk of a motor vehicle crash. Previous research has implicated a wide variety of factors involved in fatigue-related crashes and the effects of these various factors in regard to crash risk can be interpreted as causal (i.e. alcohol and/or drugs may induce fatigue states) or additive (e.g. where a lack of sleep is combined with alcohol). As such, the purpose of this investigation was to examine self-report data to determine whether there are any differences in the prevalence, crash characteristics, and travel patterns of males and females involved in a fatigue-related crash or close call event. Such research is important to understand how fatigue related incidents occur within the typical driving patterns of men and women and it provides a starting point in order to explore if males and females experience and understand the risk of diving when tired in the same way. A representative sample of (N = 1,600) residents living in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and New South Wales (NSW), Australia, were surveyed regarding their experience of fatigue and their involvement in fatigue-related crashes and close call incidents. Results revealed that over 35% of participants reported having had a close call or crash due to driving when tired in the five years prior to the study being conducted. In addition, the results obtained revealed a number of interesting characteristics that provide preliminary evidence that gender differences do exist when examining the prevalence, crash characteristics, and travel patterns of males and females involved in a fatigue-related crash or close call event. It is argued that the results obtained can provide particularly useful information for the refinement and further development of appropriate countermeasures that better target this complex issue.

The effectiveness of using a simple ARIA based geographical classification to identify road crash patterns in rural and urban areas of Queensland

Research has noted a ‘pronounced pattern of increase with increasing remoteness' of death rates in road crashes. However, crash characteristics by remoteness are not commonly or consistently reported, with definitions of rural and urban often relying on proxy representations such as prevailing speed limit. The current paper seeks to evaluate the efficacy of the Accessibility / Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA+) to identifying trends in road crashes. ARIA+ does not rely on road-specific measures and uses distances to populated centres to attribute a score to an area, which can in turn be grouped into 5 classifications of increasing remoteness. The current paper uses applications of these classifications at the broad level of Australian Bureau of Statistics' Statistical Local Areas, thus avoiding precise crash locating or dedicated mapping software. Analyses used Queensland road crash database details for all 31,346 crashes resulting in a fatality or hospitalisation occurring between 1st July, 2001 and 30th June 2006 inclusive. Results showed that this simplified application of ARIA+ aligned with previous definitions such as speed limit, while also providing further delineation. Differences in crash contributing factors were noted with increasing remoteness such as a greater representation of alcohol and ‘excessive speed for circumstances.' Other factors such as the predominance of younger drivers in crashes differed little by remoteness classification. The results are discussed in terms of the utility of remoteness as a graduated rather than binary (rural/urban) construct and the potential for combining ARIA crash data with census and hospital datasets.

Crash Risk Assessment with Cooperative Systems

Crash risk is the statistical probability of a crash. Its assessment can be performed through ex post statistical analysis or in real-time with on-vehicle systems. These systems can be cooperative. Cooperative Vehicle-Infrastructure Systems (CVIS) are a developing research avenue in the automotive industry worldwide. This paper provides a survey of existing CVIS systems and methods to assess crash risk with them. It describes the advantages of cooperative systems versus non-cooperative systems. A sample of cooperative crash risk assessment systems is analysed to extract vulnerabilities according to three criteria: market penetration, over-reliance on GPS and broadcasting issues. It shows that cooperative risk assessment systems are still in their infancy and requires further development to provide their full benefits to road users.

Applying data mining to assess crash risk on curves

The wide range of contributing factors and circumstances surrounding crashes on road curves suggest that no single intervention can prevent these crashes. This paper presents a novel methodology, based on data mining techniques, to identify contributing factors and the relationship between them. It identifies contributing factors that influence the risk of a crash. Incident records, described using free text, from a large insurance company were analysed with rough set theory. Rough set theory was used to discover dependencies among data, and reasons using the vague, uncertain and imprecise information that characterised the insurance dataset. The results show that male drivers, who are between 50 and 59 years old, driving during evening peak hours are involved with a collision, had a lowest crash risk. Drivers between 25 and 29 years old, driving from around midnight to 6 am and in a new car has the highest risk. The analysis of the most significant contributing factors on curves suggests that drivers with driving experience of 25 to 42 years, who are driving a new vehicle have the highest crash cost risk, characterised by the vehicle running off the road and hitting a tree. This research complements existing statistically based tools approach to analyse road crashes. Our data mining approach is supported with proven theory and will allow road safety practitioners to effectively understand the dependencies between contributing factors and the crash type with the view to designing tailored countermeasures.

Mining patterns and factors contributing to crash severity on road curves

Road curves are an important feature of road infrastructure and many serious crashes occur on road curves. In Queensland, the number of fatalities is twice as many on curves as that on straight roads. Therefore, there is a need to reduce drivers’ exposure to crash risk on road curves. Road crashes in Australia and in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) have plateaued in the last five years (2004 to 2008) and the road safety community is desperately seeking innovative interventions to reduce the number of crashes. However, designing an innovative and effective intervention may prove to be difficult as it relies on providing theoretical foundation, coherence, understanding, and structure to both the design and validation of the efficiency of the new intervention. Researchers from multiple disciplines have developed various models to determine the contributing factors for crashes on road curves with a view towards reducing the crash rate. However, most of the existing methods are based on statistical analysis of contributing factors described in government crash reports. In order to further explore the contributing factors related to crashes on road curves, this thesis designs a novel method to analyse and validate these contributing factors. The use of crash claim reports from an insurance company is proposed for analysis using data mining techniques. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to use data mining techniques to analyse crashes on road curves. Text mining technique is employed as the reports consist of thousands of textual descriptions and hence, text mining is able to identify the contributing factors. Besides identifying the contributing factors, limited studies to date have investigated the relationships between these factors, especially for crashes on road curves. Thus, this study proposed the use of the rough set analysis technique to determine these relationships. The results from this analysis are used to assess the effect of these contributing factors on crash severity. The findings obtained through the use of data mining techniques presented in this thesis, have been found to be consistent with existing identified contributing factors. Furthermore, this thesis has identified new contributing factors towards crashes and the relationships between them. A significant pattern related with crash severity is the time of the day where severe road crashes occur more frequently in the evening or night time. Tree collision is another common pattern where crashes that occur in the morning and involves hitting a tree are likely to have a higher crash severity. Another factor that influences crash severity is the age of the driver. Most age groups face a high crash severity except for drivers between 60 and 100 years old, who have the lowest crash severity. The significant relationship identified between contributing factors consists of the time of the crash, the manufactured year of the vehicle, the age of the driver and hitting a tree. Having identified new contributing factors and relationships, a validation process is carried out using a traffic simulator in order to determine their accuracy. The validation process indicates that the results are accurate. This demonstrates that data mining techniques are a powerful tool in road safety research, and can be usefully applied within the Intelligent Transport System (ITS) domain. The research presented in this thesis provides an insight into the complexity of crashes on road curves. The findings of this research have important implications for both practitioners and academics. For road safety practitioners, the results from this research illustrate practical benefits for the design of interventions for road curves that will potentially help in decreasing related injuries and fatalities. For academics, this research opens up a new research methodology to assess crash severity, related to road crashes on curves.

Philanthropy for Indigenous causes : more than a 'cup of tea'?

In the face of improved First Nation outcomes in many western nations, Australia is still dealing with a seemingly intractable gap between the quality of life of its Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and the non-Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Philanthropy in Australia provides a smaller proportion of funding for community projects than is the case in other countries and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander causes have been significantly under - represented as recipients. This paper reports on a qualitative study aimed at understanding the issues affecting the decisions and actions of grantmaking organisations and individuals who wish to support Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander causes in the current Australian context. The aims were to build on the limited research in this arena, add to the future research agenda and contribute to practice and policy insights for Australia and beyond. The study found that while government funding programs are perceived as output driven, inflexible and dogmatic - ‘a cup of tea mob’- participants see the Australian philanthropic sector as capable of addressing the complex Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander ‘problem’ with more innovative and independent thinking. From the point of view of contextual impacts, success criteria, barriers, structural imposts and emotional involvement, the practical experience in grantmaking for Indigenous causes of participants in this study reflects that found elsewhere. However the focus of many grantmakers on organisational rather than community capacity and the potentially elitist emphasis on established relationships continues to hamper Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander access to philanthropic funding in Australia. Further, if the strategic changes currently visible in the sector are unsupported by a depth of policy and a proactive transfer and distribution of skill and knowledge they may be unsustainable.

What causes childhood leukaemia? Some beliefs of parents of affected children

The theories of parents about the cause of their children's leukaemia have been documented in the course of a case-control study. From a sample of 175 children who were diagnosed as having acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 91.4% of their parents put forward their theories. Some of these theories were related clearly to material that had been published and therefore had some scientific validity. Other theories often had no apparent scientific basis. Persons who are involved in the care of children with leukaemia should be aware of the wide variety of theories that are held by their parents so that they may provide counselling which could be of help in the relief of feelings of anxiety or guilt among the parents. Parents should always be afforded the opportunity to put forward their own theories so that they may be discussed on a rational basis. It is conceivable that some parents might put forward new hypotheses about leukaemogenesis that could be tested scientifically.

The influence of fatalistic beliefs on risky road use behavior in developing countries

There is little discussion of fatalism in the road safety literature, and limited research. However, fatalism is a potential barrier to participation in health-promoting behaviours, particularly among the populations of developing countries and to some extent in developed countries. Many people still believe in divine discretion and magical powers as causes of road crashes in different parts of the world. Fatalistic beliefs and beliefs in mystical powers and superstition appear to influence perceptions of crash risk and consequently lead people to take risks and neglect safety measures. Fatalistic beliefs may cause individuals to be resigned to risks because they cannot do anything to reduce these risks.