Use of Bayesian geostatistical prediction to estimate local variations in Schistosoma haematobium infection in western Africa

Objective We aimed to predict sub-national spatial variation in numbers of people infected with Schistosoma haematobium, and associated uncertainties, in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, prior to implementation of national control programmes. Methods We used national field survey datasets covering a contiguous area 2,750 × 850 km, from 26,790 school-aged children (5–14 years) in 418 schools. Bayesian geostatistical models were used to predict prevalence of high and low intensity infections and associated 95% credible intervals (CrI). Numbers infected were determined by multiplying predicted prevalence by numbers of school-aged children in 1 km2 pixels covering the study area. Findings Numbers of school-aged children with low-intensity infections were: 433,268 in Burkina Faso, 872,328 in Mali and 580,286 in Niger. Numbers with high-intensity infections were: 416,009 in Burkina Faso, 511,845 in Mali and 254,150 in Niger. 95% CrIs (indicative of uncertainty) were wide; e.g. the mean number of boys aged 10–14 years infected in Mali was 140,200 (95% CrI 6200, 512,100). Conclusion National aggregate estimates for numbers infected mask important local variation, e.g. most S. haematobium infections in Niger occur in the Niger River valley. Prevalence of high-intensity infections was strongly clustered in foci in western and central Mali, north-eastern and northwestern Burkina Faso and the Niger River valley in Niger. Populations in these foci are likely to carry the bulk of the urinary schistosomiasis burden and should receive priority for schistosomiasis control. Uncertainties in predicted prevalence and numbers infected should be acknowledged and taken into consideration by control programme planners.

Peripheral ocular monochromatic aberrations

Aberrations affect image quality of the eye away from the line of sight as well as along it. High amounts of lower order aberrations are found in the peripheral visual field and higher order aberrations change away from the centre of the visual field. Peripheral resolution is poorer than that in central vision, but peripheral vision is important for movement and detection tasks (for example driving) which are adversely affected by poor peripheral image quality. Any physiological process or intervention that affects axial image quality will affect peripheral image quality as well. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of accommodation, myopia, age, and refractive interventions of orthokeratology, laser in situ keratomileusis and intraocular lens implantation on the peripheral aberrations of the eye. This is the first systematic investigation of peripheral aberrations in a variety of subject groups. Peripheral aberrations can be measured either by rotating a measuring instrument relative to the eye or rotating the eye relative to the instrument. I used the latter as it is much easier to do. To rule out effects of eye rotation on peripheral aberrations, I investigated the effects of eye rotation on axial and peripheral cycloplegic refraction using an open field autorefractor. For axial refraction, the subjects fixated at a target straight ahead, while their heads were rotated by ±30º with a compensatory eye rotation to view the target. For peripheral refraction, the subjects rotated their eyes to fixate on targets out to ±34° along the horizontal visual field, followed by measurements in which they rotated their heads such that the eyes stayed in the primary position relative to the head while fixating at the peripheral targets. Oblique viewing did not affect axial or peripheral refraction. Therefore it is not critical, within the range of viewing angles studied, if axial and peripheral refractions are measured with rotation of the eye relative to the instrument or rotation of the instrument relative to the eye. Peripheral aberrations were measured using a commercial Hartmann-Shack aberrometer. A number of hardware and software changes were made. The 1.4 mm range limiting aperture was replaced by a larger aperture (2.5 mm) to ensure all the light from peripheral parts of the pupil reached the instrument detector even when aberrations were high such as those occur in peripheral vision. The power of the super luminescent diode source was increased to improve detection of spots passing through the peripheral pupil. A beam splitter was placed between the subjects and the aberrometer, through which they viewed an array of targets on a wall or projected on a screen in a 6 row x 7 column matrix of points covering a visual field of 42 x 32. In peripheral vision, the pupil of the eye appears elliptical rather than circular; data were analysed off-line using custom software to determine peripheral aberrations. All analyses in the study were conducted for 5.0 mm pupils. Influence of accommodation on peripheral aberrations was investigated in young emmetropic subjects by presenting fixation targets at 25 cm and 3 m (4.0 D and 0.3 D accommodative demands, respectively). Increase in accommodation did not affect the patterns of any aberrations across the field, but there was overall negative shift in spherical aberration across the visual field of 0.10 ± 0.01m. Subsequent studies were conducted with the targets at a 1.2 m distance. Young emmetropes, young myopes and older emmetropes exhibited similar patterns of astigmatism and coma across the visual field. However, the rate of change of coma across the field was higher in young myopes than young emmetropes and was highest in older emmetropes amongst the three groups. Spherical aberration showed an overall decrease in myopes and increase in older emmetropes across the field, as compared to young emmetropes. Orthokeratology, spherical IOL implantation and LASIK altered peripheral higher order aberrations considerably, especially spherical aberration. Spherical IOL implantation resulted in an overall increase in spherical aberration across the field. Orthokeratology and LASIK reversed the direction of change in coma across the field. Orthokeratology corrected peripheral relative hypermetropia through correcting myopia in the central visual field. Theoretical ray tracing demonstrated that changes in aberrations due to orthokeratology and LASIK can be explained by the induced changes in radius of curvature and asphericity of the cornea. This investigation has shown that peripheral aberrations can be measured with reasonable accuracy with eye rotation relative to the instrument. Peripheral aberrations are affected by accommodation, myopia, age, orthokeratology, spherical intraocular lens implantation and laser in situ keratomileusis. These factors affect the magnitudes and patterns of most aberrations considerably (especially coma and spherical aberration) across the studied visual field. The changes in aberrations across the field may influence peripheral detection and motion perception. However, further research is required to investigate how the changes in aberrations influence peripheral detection and motion perception and consequently peripheral vision task performance.

Strategies for comparing decimal numbers with the same whole-number part

The strategies employed by 130 Grade 5 Brisbane students in comparing decimal numbers which have the same whole-number part were compared with those identified in similar studies conducted in the USA, France and Israel. Three new strategies were identified. Similar to USA results, the most common comparison errors stemmed from the incorrect whole-number strategy in which length is confused with size. The findings of this present study tend to support Resnick et al.’s (1989) hypothesis that the introduction of decimal-fraction recording before common-fraction recording seems to promote better comparison of decimal numbers.

Construction of multiplicative abstract schema for decimal-number numeration

This paper reports on an intervention study planned to help Year 6 students construct the multiplicative structure underlying decimal-number numeration. Three types of intervention were designed from a numeration model developed from a large study of 173 Year 6 students’ decimal-number knowledge. The study found that students could acquire multiplicative structure as an abstract schema if instruction took account of prior knowledge as informed by the model.

Fractions, reunitisation and the number-line representation

Centre for Mathematics and Science Education, QUT, Brisbane, Australia This paper reports on a study in which Years 6 and 10 students were individually interviewed to determine their ability to unitise and reunitise number lines used to represent mixed numbers and improper fractions. Only 16.7% of the students (all Year 6) were successful on all three tasks and, in general, Year 6 students outperformed Year 8 students. The interviews revealed that the remaining students had incomplete, fragmented or non-existent structural knowledge of mixed numbers and improper fractions, and were unable to unitise or reunitise number lines. The implication for teaching is that instruction should focus on providing students with a variety of fraction representations in order to develop rich and flexible schema for all fraction types (mixed numbers, and proper and improper fractions).

The Green Falcon - Solar Powered Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

In recent months the extremes of Australia’s weather have affected, killed a good number of people and millions of dollars lost. Contrary to a manned aircraft or a helicopter; which have restricted air time, a UAS or a group of UAS could provide 24 hours coverage of the disaster area and be instrumented with infrared cameras to locate distressed people and relay information to emergency services. The solar powered UAV is capable of carrying a 0.25Kg payload consuming 0.5 watt and fly continuously for at low altitude for 24 hrs ,collect the data and create a special distribution . This system, named Green Falcon, is fully autonomous in navigation and power generation, equipped with solar cells covering its wing, it retrieves energy from the sun in order to supply power to the propulsion system and the control electronics, and charge the battery with the surplus of energy. During the night, the only energy available comes from the battery, which discharges slowly until the next morning when a new cycle starts. The prototype airplane was exhibited at the Melbourne Museum form Nov09 to Feb 2010.

Industrial design in endoscopy : the development of a tissue and organ extractor

Throughout history, developments in medicine have aimed to improve patient quality of life, and reduce the trauma associated with surgical treatment. Surgical access to internal organs and bodily structures has been traditionally via large incisions. Endoscopic surgery presents a technique for surgical access via small (1 Omm) incisions by utilising a scope and camera for visualisation of the operative site. Endoscopy presents enormous benefits for patients in terms of lower post operative discomfort, and reduced recovery and hospitalisation time. Since the first gall bladder extraction operation was performed in France in 1987, endoscopic surgery has been embraced by the international medical community. With the adoption of the new technique, new problems never previously encountered in open surgery, were revealed. One such problem is that the removal of large tissue specimens and organs is restricted by the small incision size. Instruments have been developed to address this problem however none of the devices provide a totally satisfactory solution. They have a number of critical weaknesses: -The size of the access incision has to be enlarged, thereby compromising the entire endoscopic approach to surgery. - The physical quality of the specimen extracted is very poor and is not suitable to conduct the necessary post operative pathological examinations. -The safety of both the patient and the physician is jeopardised. The problem of tissue and organ extraction at endoscopy is investigated and addressed. In addition to background information covering endoscopic surgery, this thesis describes the entire approach to the design problem, and the steps taken before arriving at the final solution. This thesis contributes to the body of knowledge associated with the development of endoscopic surgical instruments. A new product capable of extracting large tissue specimens and organs in endoscopy is the final outcome of the research.

Mind change complexity of learning logic programs

The present paper motivates the study of mind change complexity for learning minimal models of length-bounded logic programs. It establishes ordinal mind change complexity bounds for learnability of these classes both from positive facts and from positive and negative facts. Building on Angluin’s notion of finite thickness and Wright’s work on finite elasticity, Shinohara defined the property of bounded finite thickness to give a sufficient condition for learnability of indexed families of computable languages from positive data. This paper shows that an effective version of Shinohara’s notion of bounded finite thickness gives sufficient conditions for learnability with ordinal mind change bound, both in the context of learnability from positive data and for learnability from complete (both positive and negative) data. Let Omega be a notation for the first limit ordinal. Then, it is shown that if a language defining framework yields a uniformly decidable family of languages and has effective bounded finite thickness, then for each natural number m >0, the class of languages defined by formal systems of length <= m: • is identifiable in the limit from positive data with a mind change bound of Omega (power)m; • is identifiable in the limit from both positive and negative data with an ordinal mind change bound of Omega × m. The above sufficient conditions are employed to give an ordinal mind change bound for learnability of minimal models of various classes of length-bounded Prolog programs, including Shapiro’s linear programs, Arimura and Shinohara’s depth-bounded linearly covering programs, and Krishna Rao’s depth-bounded linearly moded programs. It is also noted that the bound for learning from positive data is tight for the example classes considered.

Quantitative evaluation of route allocation solutions at large-scale passenger stations

Routing trains within passenger stations in major cities is a common scheduling problem for railway operation. Various studies have been undertaken to derive and formulate solutions to this route allocation problem (RAP) which is particularly evident in mainland China nowadays because of the growing traffic demand and limited station capacity. A reasonable solution must be selected from a set of available RAP solutions attained in the planning stage to facilitate station operation. The selection is however based on the experience of the operators only and objective evaluation of the solutions is rarely addressed. In order to maximise the utilisation of station capacity while maintaining service quality and allowing for service disturbance, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is highly desirable. In this study, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is proposed and it is enabled by a set of indices covering infrastructure utilisation, buffer times and delay propagation. The proposed evaluation is carried out on a number of RAP solutions at a real-life busy railway station in mainland China and the results highlight the effectiveness of the indices in pinpointing the strengths and weaknesses of the solutions. This study provides the necessary platform to improve the RAP solution in planning and to allow train re-routing upon service disturbances.

Critical analysis of high particle number emissions from accelerating compressed natural gas buses

Compressed natural gas (CNG) engines are thought to be less harmful to the environment than conventional diesel engines, especially in terms of particle emissions. Although, this is true with respect to particulate matter (PM) emissions, results of particle number (PN) emission comparisons have been inconclusive. In this study, results of on-road and dynamometer studies of buses were used to derive several important conclusions. We show that, although PN emissions from CNG buses are significantly lower than from diesel buses at low engine power, they become comparable at high power. For diesel buses, PN emissions are not significantly different between acceleration and operation at steady maximum power. However, the corresponding PN emissions from CNG buses when accelerating are an order of magnitude greater than when operating at steady maximum power. During acceleration under heavy load, PN emissions from CNG buses are an order of magnitude higher than from diesel buses. The particles emitted from CNG buses are too small to contribute to PM10 emissions or contribute to a reduction of visibility, and may consist of semivolatile nanoparticles.

Derivation of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emission factors suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions and air quality assessments

Background, aim, and scope Urban motor vehicle fleets are a major source of particulate matter pollution, especially of ultrafine particles (diameters < 0.1 µm), and exposure to particulate matter has known serious health effects. A considerable body of literature is available on vehicle particle emission factors derived using a wide range of different measurement methods for different particle sizes, conducted in different parts of the world. Therefore the choice as to which are the most suitable particle emission factors to use in transport modelling and health impact assessments presented as a very difficult task. The aim of this study was to derive a comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations, covering the full size range of particles emitted, which are suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions. Materials and methods A large body of data available in the international literature on particle emission factors for motor vehicles derived from measurement studies was compiled and subjected to advanced statistical analysis, to determine the most suitable emission factors to use in modelling urban fleet emissions. Results This analysis resulted in the development of five statistical models which explained 86%, 93%, 87%, 65% and 47% of the variation in published emission factors for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 respectively. A sixth model for total particle mass was proposed but no significant explanatory variables were identified in the analysis. From the outputs of these statistical models, the most suitable particle emission factors were selected. This selection was based on examination of the statistical robustness of the statistical model outputs, including consideration of conservative average particle emission factors with the lowest standard errors, narrowest 95% confidence intervals and largest sample sizes, and the explanatory model variables, which were Vehicle Type (all particle metrics), Instrumentation (particle number and PM2.5), Road Type (PM10) and Size Range Measured and Speed Limit on the Road (particle volume). Discussion A multiplicity of factors need to be considered in determining emission factors that are suitable for modelling motor vehicle emissions, and this study derived a set of average emission factors suitable for quantifying motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions in developed countries. Conclusions The comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors presented in this study for different vehicle and road type combinations enable the full size range of particles generated by fleets to be quantified, including ultrafine particles (measured in terms of particle number). These emission factors have particular application for regions which may have a lack of funding to undertake measurements, or insufficient measurement data upon which to derive emission factors for their region. Recommendations and perspectives In urban areas motor vehicles continue to be a major source of particulate matter pollution and of ultrafine particles. It is critical that in order to manage this major pollution source methods are available to quantify the full size range of particles emitted for traffic modelling and health impact assessments.