Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Consumer perception of CSR in Portugal: The aftermath of the financial crisis

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) literature has largely neglected consumers’ perceptions in the debate regarding the role of CSR in the aftermath of the financial crisis. In that context, this study aims to test the possibility that consumers’ perceptions of CSR level, firm reputation and brand trust, might depend on the type of industry sector of a firm, the level of fit of an initiative or both. By conducting a survey on Portuguese consumers and running a two-way analysis of variance, it suggests that solely the type of industry sector has an effect on consumer perception and that consumers are less tolerable of controversial industries.

Empirically testing the dimensions of consumer trust in e-commerce

In the fields of marketing and general management, many are the contributions of literature relating trust and e‐commerce. Trust is perceived as an issue that concerns the consumers’ intention to purchase. As so, in this research, a path model is empirically tested in order to develop solutions for Internet vendors on how to deal with consumers and increase their trust. The path model measures how the dimensions of trust, named as competence, integrity and benevolence positively influence the overall trust of the consumers and at the same time how the sources of trust – consumer characteristics, firm characteristics, website infrastructure and interactions influence those dimensions. The data used to test the model was collected in Portugal, through 365 valid cases. Findings revealed that consumers, which have high level of overall trust, are more likely to intent to purchase online.

Automatic eye blink detection using consumer web cameras

This research aims to advance blinking detection in the context of work activity. Rather than patients having to attend a clinic, blinking videos can be acquired in a work environment, and further automatically analyzed. Therefore, this paper presents a methodology to perform the automatic detection of eye blink using consumer videos acquired with low-cost web cameras. This methodology includes the detection of the face and eyes of the recorded person, and then it analyzes the low-level features of the eye region to create a quantitative vector. Finally, this vector is classified into one of the two categories considered —open and closed eyes— by using machine learning algorithms. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology was demonstrated since it provides unbiased results with classification errors under 5%

Contribution to an efficient transmission of information to the textile fashion consumer and the influence in sustainable attitudes

The concepts involved in sustainable textile fashion, demanding good knowledge about raw materials, processes, end use properties and circuits amongst others, are able to determine the way the textile product is designed and the behavior of the consumer, regarding life style and buying decisions. The textile product`s life integrates raw materials, their processing, distribution, use by the consumer and destination of the product after useful lifetime, this is, his complete life cycle. It is very important to recognize the power of the consumer to influence parameters related to sustainability, namely when he decides how, when and why he buys and afterwards by the attitudes taken during and after use. The conscious act of consumption involves ethical, ecological and technical knowledge in which the concern is overall lifecycle of the fashion product and not exclusively aesthetic and symbolic values strongly related with its ephemeral nature. The present work proposes the classification of textile products by means of an innovative label aiming to establish a rating related to the Life of Fashion Products, by using parameters considered with especial impact in lifecycle, as textile fibers, processing conditions, generated wastes, commercialization circuits, durability and cleaning procedures. This label for sustainable fashion products aims to assist the stakeholders with informed attitudes and correct decisions in order to promote the objectives of sustainable fashion near designers, consumers and industrial experts.

Recommender System Based on Consumer Product Reviews

Consumer reviews, opinions and shared experiences in the use of a product is a powerful source of information about consumer preferences that can be used in recommender systems. Despite the importance and value of such information, there is no comprehensive mechanism that formalizes the opinions selection and retrieval process and the utilization of retrieved opinions due to the difficulty of extracting information from text data. In this paper, a new recommender system that is built on consumer product reviews is proposed. A prioritizing mechanism is developed for the system. The proposed approach is illustrated using the case study of a recommender system for digital cameras

Consumer Satisfaction with Websites of Banks - The Moderating Effect of Consumer Technology Attractiveness

The websites are becoming the firms’ first contact interface with their clients. Hence, understanding customers’ online attitudes and behaviors have been capturing increased research attention. The extant research has pointed customers’ satisfaction with the websites as the main reason for customers’ online behaviors. This research has used mostly variables related to the characteristics of the websites as the predictors of customers’ website satisfaction. However, recent research shows that groups of individuals displaying distinctive characteristics react differently to the same context. Therefore, behavior may be considerably different among groups of customers. In this study, we develop a conceptual model of the influence of individual characteristics on the traditional website quality – website satisfaction relationship. We propose a model based on the construct of consumer technology attractiveness (CTA) to represent the genuine positive propensity of individuals toward technology. We further test the moderating effect of this construct on the commonly used predictors of customer’s website satisfaction using Hierarchical Multiple Regression. The empirical study was based on websites of banks operating in Portuguese market. The commercial banking industry is one of the Portuguese industries that better uses the Internet to establish relationships with clients. Data were collected through an online website satisfaction survey, participated by the lecturers and postgraduate students from four Portuguese Universities and Polytechnic Institutes. Our final sample comprised 276 valid questionnaires. Our study permits to conclude that the most commonly used antecedents of website overall satisfaction are still relevant for analyzing consumer’s satisfaction with the banks websites. We also conclude that CTA has a significant moderating effect on almost all customers’ website satisfaction variables used in the study. This study contributes to highlight the theoretical importance and significant influence of consumers’ personal characteristics on their online behavior. Moreover, for the practitioners, a better understanding of these individual characteristics will assist them in developing customized websites that will meet customers’ expectations. O estudo dos comportamentos dos consumidores em ambientes online tem vindo a ter um crescente interesse, uma vez que os websites estão a transformar-se num importante ponto de contacto entre as empresas e os seus clientes. A satisfação dos clientes com os websites tem sido apontada pela Literatura como o principal condicionante dos comportamentos online dos consumidores. No entanto, a investigação científica tem conseguido provar que grupos de indivíduos com características distintas reagem de forma diferente quando submetidos a contextos idênticos, o que poderá levar a diferenças significativas no comportamento online de consumidores pertencentes a diferentes grupos. Neste estudo desenvolvemos um modelo conceptual que reflecte a influência de características individuais na relação entre a qualidade e a satisfação com os websites. Propomos um modelo assente na atractividade tecnológica do consumidor (CTA), que representa a propensão genuína que os indivíduos possuem em relação à tecnologia. Testamos o efeito moderador deste conceito sobre as variáveis mais utilizadas nos estudos sobre a satisfação dos consumidores com os websites, utilizando a Regressão Múltipla Hierárquica. O estudo empírico baseou-se nos websites dos bancos que operam no mercado português, uma vez que este sector é um dos que melhor utiliza a Internet na sua relação com os clientes. Os dados foram recolhidos através de um questionário sobre satisfação com os websites, colocado online e dirigido a docentes e estudantes de programas de pós-graduações, mestrados e doutoramentos de quatro universidades e instituto politécnico portugueses, tendo resultado numa amostra final de 276 questionários validados estatisticamente. Este estudo permitiu concluir que as variáveis que são mais utilizadas como antecedentes da satisfação dos consumidores com os websites, continuam a ser igualmente válidas para a análise dos websites dos bancos. Também concluímos que a CTA tem efeitos moderadores significativos na grande maioria das variáveis utilizadas neste estudo. Assim, conseguimos realçar a importância teórica das características pessoais dos consumidores no seu comportamento online. Para os gestores, uma melhor compreensão destas características individuais permitir-lhes-á desenvolver websites customizados que irão satisfazer as expectativas dos seus clientes.

Pressure to change and resistance against it: consumer perceptions and acceptance of nutritionally modified foods

Selostus: Muutospaineet ja muutosvastarinta: kuluttajien suhtautuminen ravitsemuksellisesti muunnettuihin elintarvikkeisiin

Spanish E-Consumer Segmentation and Positioning in Virtual Supermarkets Sector

This article analyses different factors that influence the purchasing behaviour of online supermarket customers. These factors are related to both the appearance of the website as well as the processes that take place when making the purchase. Based on these analyses, the various groups of consumers with homogenous behaviour are studied and positioned according to their attitudes. The analysis also allows the quality of the service offered by this kind of establishment to be defined, as well as the main dimensions in which it develops. In the conclusions, factors which should influence the manager of an online supermarket to improve the quality of its service are given

Drivers and Barriers of Collaboration in the Value Chain of Paperboard-Packed Consumer Goods

Value chain collaboration has been a prevailing topic for research, and there is a constantly growing interest in developing collaborative models for improved efficiency in logistics. One area of collaboration is demand information management, which enables improved visibility and decrease of inventories in the value chain. Outsourcing of non-core competencies has changed the nature of collaboration from intra-enterprise to cross-enterprise activity, and this together with increasing competition in the globalizing markets have created a need for methods and tools for collaborative work. The retailer part in the value chain of consumer packaged goods (CPG) has been studied relatively widely, proven models have been defined, and there exist several best practice collaboration cases. The information and communications technology has developed rapidly, offering efficient solutions and applications to exchange information between value chain partners. However, the majority of CPG industry still works with traditional business models and practices. This concerns especially companies operating in the upstream of the CPG value chain. Demand information for consumer packaged goods originates at retailers' counters, based on consumers' buying decisions. As this information does not get transferred along the value chain towards the upstream parties, each player needs to optimize their part, causing safety margins for inventories and speculation in purchasing decisions. The safety margins increase with each player, resulting in a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. The further the company is from the original demand information source, the more distorted the information is. This thesis concentrates on the upstream parts of the value chain of consumer packaged goods, and more precisely the packaging value chain. Packaging is becoming a part of the product with informative and interactive features, and therefore is not just a cost item needed to protect the product. The upstream part of the CPG value chain is distinctive, as the product changes after each involved party, and therefore the original demand information from the retailers cannot be utilized as such – even if it were transferred seamlessly. The objective of this thesis is to examine the main drivers for collaboration, and barriers causing the moderate adaptation level of collaborative models. Another objective is to define a collaborative demand information management model and test it in a pilot business situation in order to see if the barriers can be eliminated. The empirical part of this thesis contains three parts, all related to the research objective, but involving different target groups, viewpoints and research approaches. The study shows evidence that the main barriers for collaboration are very similar to the barriers in the lower part of the same value chain; lack of trust, lack of business case and lack of senior management commitment. Eliminating one of them – the lack of business case – is not enough to eliminate the two other barriers, as the operational model in this thesis shows. The uncertainty of the future, fear of losing an independent position in purchasing decision making and lack of commitment remain strong enough barriers to prevent the implementation of the proposed collaborative business model. The study proposes a new way of defining the value chain processes: it divides the contracting and planning process into two processes, one managing the commercial parts and the other managing the quantity and specification related issues. This model can reduce the resistance to collaboration, as the commercial part of the contracting process would remain the same as in the traditional model. The quantity/specification-related issues would be managed by the parties with the best capabilities and resources, as well as access to the original demand information. The parties in between would be involved in the planning process as well, as their impact for the next party upstream is significant. The study also highlights the future challenges for companies operating in the CPG value chain. The markets are becoming global, with toughening competition. Also, the technology development will most likely continue with a speed exceeding the adaptation capabilities of the industry. Value chains are also becoming increasingly dynamic, which means shorter and more agile business relationships, and at the same time the predictability of consumer demand is getting more difficult due to shorter product life cycles and trends. These changes will certainly have an effect on companies' operational models, but it is very difficult to estimate when and how the proven methods will gain wide enough adaptation to become standards.

Consumer Attitudes on Aroma Printing

Olfactory packaging is an emerging technology which uses the aromatic capsules to release various scents. Normally, manufacturers add these aromatic capsules in the printing ink, the label or packaging material itself. When the aromatic capsules meet suitable release triggers, the scents will be released. The common release triggers are external forces, temperature changes, humidity changes and so on. The aim for this Masters of Science Thesis is to understand the aroma printing technology from literature and make market research for this kind of technology. The main target is to collect the current technology principle of aroma packaging and figure out how they are implemented on products with those. In addition, an investigation is made about consumers' attitudes from Chinese and Finnish market through the questionnaire, and the market potential is analyzed as well. The key points researched in this work are: the general attitudes on aroma printing technology, market potential and economic possibilities. This thesis specifies the main technologies used in aroma printing, the solutions of products with aroma packaging and the original results of the questionnaires. It also includes analysis of the acceptance of Chinese and Finnish consumers, what are their opinions of the aroma printing technology and the products packed by aroma printing technology. In addition, various factors which impact the market is discussed in the thesis. At last, some comparisons are made from the point of views of similarities and differences between Chinese and Finnish market.

The Brazilian consumer's understanding and perceptions of organic vegetables: a Focus Group approach

Focus Group is a tool which generates, through interview sessions with a small number of participants, preliminary data to be used in subsequent quantitative stages. Many consumer studies use qualitative research with the aim of obtaining information and opinions on a specific product or situation. The objective of the present study was to obtain knowledge on the opinion, understanding and perception of the Brazilian consumer with respect to vegetables, focusing on organic products, using Focus Group Sessions. Four Focus Group Sessions were held with men and women in different environments, following a previously elaborated interview guide. In this study, it was observed that the consumers demonstrated being interested in having a healthy diet, based on fruit, vegetables and natural products. However, only a few declared consuming organic foods. Some participants did not know what the term organic meant, and most of them think that organic products are still very expensive, are not easily available in the supermarkets, do not have a good appearance, mainly in terms of size and packaging, and their certification is not always trustworthy. Almost all participants stated that they read package labels and among the items most observed were best-before date, nutritional information, production system and price. This study has identified important vegetable attributes perceived by the consumer, favouring the planning of a subsequent quantitative research. The results suggest that more information on the benefits of organic agriculture has to be passed on to consumers in order to contribute to a higher consumption of such products.

A method to determine volatile contaminants in polyethylene terephthalate (PET) packages by HDC-GC-FID and its application to post-consumer materials

A simple and low cost method to determine volatile contaminants in post-consumer recycled PET flakes was developed and validated by Headspace Dynamic Concentration and Gas Chromatography-Flame Ionization Detection (HDC-GC-FID). The analytical parameters evaluated by using surrogates include: correlation coefficient, detection limit, quantification limit, accuracy, intra-assay precision, and inter-assay precision. In order to compare the efficiency of the proposed method to recognized automated techniques, post-consumer PET packaging samples collected in Brazil were used. GC-MS was used to confirm the identity of the substances identified in the PET packaging. Some of the identified contaminants were estimated in the post-consumer material at concentrations higher than 220 ng.g-1. The findings in this work corroborate data available in the scientific literature pointing out the suitability of the proposed analytical method.