Community-managed forests and wildlife-friendly agriculture play a subsidiary but not substitutive role to protected areas for the endangered Asian elephant

Global conservation policy is increasingly debating the feasibility of reconciling wildlife conservation and human resource requirements in land uses outside protected areas (PAs). However, there are few quantitative assessments of whether or to what extent these `wildlife-friendly' land uses fulfill a fundamental function of PAs-to separate biodiversity from anthropogenic threats. We distinguish the role of wildlife-friendly land uses as being (a) subsidiary, whereby they augment PAs with secondary habitat, or (b) substitutive, wherein they provide comparable habitat to PAs. We tested our hypotheses by investigating the influence of land use and human presence on space-use intensity of the endangered Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) in a fragmented landscape comprising PAs and wildlife-friendly land uses. We applied multistate occupancy models to spatial data on elephant occurrence to estimate and model the overall probability of elephants using a site, and the conditional probability of high-intensity use given that elephants use a site. The probability of elephants using a site regardless of intensity did not vary between PAs and wildlife-friendly land uses. However, high-intensity use declined with distance to PM, and this effect was accentuated by an increase in village density. Therefore, while wildlife-friendly land uses did play a subsidiary conservation role, their potential to substitute for PAs was offset by a strong human presence. Our findings demonstrate the need to evaluate the role of wildlife-friendly land uses in landscape-scale conservation; for species that have conflicting resource requirements with people, PAs are likely to provide crucial refuge from growing anthropogenic threats. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluación de la política de Espacios Naturales Protegidos: una propuesta metodológica para la Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco

395 p.

Oil and gas projects in the Western Amazon: threats to wilderness, biodiversity, and indigenous peoples.

BACKGROUND: The western Amazon is the most biologically rich part of the Amazon basin and is home to a great diversity of indigenous ethnic groups, including some of the world's last uncontacted peoples living in voluntary isolation. Unlike the eastern Brazilian Amazon, it is still a largely intact ecosystem. Underlying this landscape are large reserves of oil and gas, many yet untapped. The growing global demand is leading to unprecedented exploration and development in the region. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We synthesized information from government sources to quantify the status of oil development in the western Amazon. National governments delimit specific geographic areas or "blocks" that are zoned for hydrocarbon activities, which they may lease to state and multinational energy companies for exploration and production. About 180 oil and gas blocks now cover approximately 688,000 km(2) of the western Amazon. These blocks overlap the most species-rich part of the Amazon. We also found that many of the blocks overlap indigenous territories, both titled lands and areas utilized by peoples in voluntary isolation. In Ecuador and Peru, oil and gas blocks now cover more than two-thirds of the Amazon. In Bolivia and western Brazil, major exploration activities are set to increase rapidly. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Without improved policies, the increasing scope and magnitude of planned extraction means that environmental and social impacts are likely to intensify. We review the most pressing oil- and gas-related conservation policy issues confronting the region. These include the need for regional Strategic Environmental Impact Assessments and the adoption of roadless extraction techniques. We also consider the conflicts where the blocks overlap indigenous peoples' territories.

Tree species-area and species-diameter relationships at three lowland rain forest sites in Sumatra

Data from three forest sites in Sumatra (Batang Ule, Pasirmayang and Tebopandak) have been analysed and compared for the effects of sample area cut-off, and tree diameter cut-off. An 'extended inverted exponential model' is shown to be well suited to fitting tree-species-area curves. The model yields species carrying capacities of 680 for Batang Ule, 380 species for Pasirmayang, and 35 for Tebopandak (tree diameter >10cm). It would seem that in terms of species carrying capacity, Tebopandak and Pasirmayang are rather similar, and both less diverse than the hilly Batang Ule site. In terms of conservation policy, this would mean that rather more emphasis should be put on conserving hilly sites on a granite substratum. For Pasirmayang with tree diameter >3cm, the asymptotic species number estimate is 567, considerably higher than the estimate of 387 species for trees with diameter >10cm. It is clear that the diameter cut-off has a major impact on the estimate of the species carrying capacity. A conservative estimate of the total number of tree species in the Pasirmayang region is 632 species! In sampling exercises, the diameter cut-off should not be chosen lightly, and it may be worth adopting field sampling procedures which involve some subsampling of the primary sample area, where the diameter cut-off is set much lower than in the primary plots.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds

Predicting how species distributions might shift as global climate changes is fundamental to the successful adaptation of conservation policy. An increasing number of studies have responded to this challenge by using climate envelopes, modeling the association between climate variables and species distributions. However, it is difficult to quantify how well species actually match climate. Here, we use null models to show that species-climate associations found by climate envelope methods are no better than chance for 68 of 100 European bird species. In line with predictions, we demonstrate that the species with distribution limits determined by climate have more northerly ranges. We conclude that scientific studies and climate change adaptation policies based on the indiscriminate use of climate envelope methods irrespective of species sensitivity to climate may be misleading and in need of revision.

Contributos para um Plano de Preservação no Arquivo Intermédio da Câmara Municipal de Sintra

Os aquivos municipais preservam a documentação definida legalmente como de conservação permanente, a memória e a experiência da Administração Local e, como tal, são agentes imprescindíveis à preservação dos direitos municipais. A preocupação com a preservação da documentação deve constituir um dos pilares principais do arquivo desde o início da sua criação. E não somente quando a documentação é transferida para o Arquivo Histórico, deve estar presente durante todo o ciclo de vida da documentação. Com a criação do PARAM (Programa de Apoio à Rede de Arquivos Municipais), os arquivos municipais ganham um novo incremento, não só a nível técnico como a nível financeiro, sendo-lhe reconhecido o seu devido valor e importância, na sua dupla dimensão, administrativa e cultural. Uma das funções do arquivo é disponibilizar a documentação que têm à sua guarda e que se encontra armazenada nos depósitos. Para tal é fundamental criar condições a curto, a médio e a longo prazo, implementando toda uma política integrada de preservação, envolvendo os demais serviços da instituição, fazendo-se o controlo do estado de conservação da documentação, aplicando uma metodologia da manipulação de documentos para disponibilizá-los tanto aos clientes internos como externos. O Arquivo Intermédio da Câmara Municipal de Sintra não possui plano de preservação documental, nem ações de preservação extensíveis aos objetos digitais, daí que a presente tese de mestrado pretenda ser um proposta de um contributo de um plano de preservação, que tenha em consideração os demais aspetos desde a localização e construção ou manutenção do edifício onde se encontra o arquivo, questões de segurança, de controlo ambiental, de luz/fotodegradação, o controlo integrado de pragas, danos causados por água, os desastres naturais, a poluição, a limpeza e vigilância na zona de depósitos e armazenamento e manuseamento dos documentos.

An objective, niche-based approach to indicator species selection

1. Species-based indices are frequently employed as surrogates for wider biodiversity health and measures of environmental condition. Species selection is crucial in determining an indicators metric value and hence the validity of the interpretation of ecosystem condition and function it provides, yet an objective process to identify appropriate indicator species is frequently lacking. 2. An effective indicator needs to (i) be representative, reflecting the status of wider biodiversity; (ii) be reactive, acting as early-warning systems for detrimental changes in environmental conditions; (iii) respond to change in a predictable way. We present an objective, niche-based approach for species' selection, founded on a coarse categorisation of species' niche space and key resource requirements, which ensures the resultant indicator has these key attributes. 3. We use UK farmland birds as a case study to demonstrate this approach, identifying an optimal indicator set containing 12 species. In contrast to the 19 species included in the farmland bird index (FBI), a key UK biodiversity indicator that contributes to one of the UK Government's headline indicators of sustainability, the niche space occupied by these species fully encompasses that occupied by the wider community of 62 species. 4. We demonstrate that the response of these 12 species to land-use change is a strong correlate to that of the wider farmland bird community. Furthermore, the temporal dynamics of the index based on their population trends closely matches the population dynamics of the wider community. However, in both analyses, the magnitude of the change in our indicator was significantly greater, allowing this indicator to act as an early-warning system. 5. Ecological indicators are embedded in environmental management, sustainable development and biodiversity conservation policy and practice where they act as metrics against which progress towards national, regional and global targets can be measured. Adopting this niche-based approach for objective selection of indicator species will facilitate the development of sensitive and representative indices for a range of taxonomic groups, habitats and spatial scales.

A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes

1. The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. 2. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). 3. The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. 4. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

A review of terrestrial bird atlases of the world and their application

We reviewed 272 bird atlases (standardised surveys intended to document the distribution of birds) from around the world. Atlases we located were conducted in 50 countries from six continents with most (82.4%) from Europe and North America. Atlases were mostly run by ornithological societies (67.1%), had amassed at least 27.9 million records of birds over an area roughly 31.4% of the land area of the Earth, and had involved at least 108 000 contributors. They had a modal data collection period of 4 years (some ran over several decades) and varied greatly in scale, covering local areas to entire continents (21 km² – 10 390 000 km²); atlases that covered larger areas involved more observers and generated more records. Most atlases (88.3%) were constrained to particular seasons, and most of these focussed on the main local breeding period (81.0%). Spatial sampling units ranged from 0.02 km² (2 ha) to 3092 km² and temporal units of sampling varied from 20 minutes to several years. Little information is available on the application of data generated by atlases. We focussed on five major atlases for which information was available. We located 97 scientific publications drawing on data from these five major atlases; papers most frequently focussed on bird distribution (26.8%), ecology (20.6%) and land-use planning (17.5%). Atlas books were cited often, 7–31 times per year. Provision of data to third parties from two major atlases (one from Australia and one from Britain and Ireland) was frequent and remarkably similar. Data were requested mostly for environmental impact studies (almost half of all requests), conservation policy and planning (~20%), research (~20%) and other mapping (~13%). Despite the uses we describe, atlas data seem under-utilised.

Preserving the environment and traditional communities : a land use change modeling approach

Human populations can cause serious damage to the natural environment. This, however, depends on the type of society and its size. Many traditional communities have a balanced relation with the environment, using practices for managing the soil, water and natural resources in order to satisfy their needs that are compatible to the general goals of environmental preservation.

The most usual approach to environmental conservation in the world sees human beings as intruders, potentially destroyers of the nature and, as a consequence, generally requires local population to be expelled from the protected regions. This situation has generated social conflicts because many protected areas, particularly in developing countries, are inhabited by indigenous or other traditional communities.

The disagreement about expelling or maintaining traditional communities in environmental conservation areas is strengthened by the lack of diagnostics on which changes are produced or suffered by communities in the region where they live. This paper presents a methodology developed to analyse land use dynamics in region with environmental conservation and traditional communities. We seek a better understanding of the way traditional communities use their space, the spatial pattern of land uses, which factors drive land use change, which impacts can be seen in those regions and identify the effects of conservation policies on land use dynamics.

The application of the method to the National Park of Superagui, Brazil, has successfully performed characterisation, analysis and simulation of land use dynamics in a region of environmental importance. Testing different scenarios has suggested that the adoption of a less restrictive policy for environmental conservation would have resulted in less social conflict with the same environmental efficiency than the established current policy.

O processo de criação e implementação de unidades de conservação e sua influência na gestão local: o estudo de caso da área de proteção ambiental da ilha do Combu, em Belém/PA

Este trabalho é um estudo de caso que procura analisar o processo de criação da APA da ilha do Combu, unidade de conservação estadual da categoria de uso sustentável, localizada no estuário amazônico, na região insular do município de Belém, Estado do Pará. O objetivo do estudo foi demonstrar que aspectos relacionados ao processo de criação da APA da ilha do Combu impedem que a gestão da unidade se consolide. Para contextualização da área, estão disponibilizados os resultados de um levantamento realizado pelo Órgão gestor da unidade, no ano de 2010, com os responsáveis de uma amostra de 100 residências, distribuídas entre as quatro comunidades existentes na ilha. Em 2013 é realizada uma pesquisa de campo, com os mesmos responsáveis, para averiguar o nível de conhecimento dos entrevistados sobre o processo de criação da APA. Também são entrevistadas mais 10 pessoas relacionadas ao processo de criação, implantação e gestão da unidade, para maiores esclarecimentos sobre o tema e para confrontar ou validar os resultados da pesquisa de campo. Por se tratar de um estudo de caráter qualitativo, foram analisados também: a) o planejamento e gestão realizados na unidade; b) a trajetória histórica da política de conservação nacional; e c) a trajetória histórica da política de conservação na região amazônica e no Estado do Pará. Os resultados obtidos pela pesquisa de campo revelam que: a criação da APA da ilha do Combu foi consequencia de uma indicação científica proveniente de estudos desenvolvidos pelo Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi (MPEG) na década de 1980, sendo posteriormente apropriados pelo antigo Instituto de Desenvolvimento Econômico, Social e Ambiental do Estado do Pará (IDESP) na década de 1990, se constituindo no principal Órgão responsável pela criação da unidade; de que a maior parte dos entrevistados na ilha desconhece a existência da APA da ilha do Combu; que apenas uma pequena parcela dos entrevistados foi informada/consultada sobre o processo de criação da APA; e que essa consulta foi realizada de maneira informal. Parte-se do princípio de que em unidades de conservação de uso sustentável, a participação da população residente é essencial para o sucesso do planejamento e da gestão, ainda que o Órgão gestor não tenha muitos recursos a serem empregados na administração. A partir da análise de todos esses dados reunidos, concluiu-se que o processo de criação da APA da ilha do Combu, por ter acontecido de maneira apartada do conhecimento da população residente, se estabelece como principal entrave à consolidação da gestão da unidade.

Effects of protected area downsizing on habitat fragmentation in Yosemite National Park (USA), 1864 – 2014

Protected area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD) has been documented worldwide, but its impacts on biodiversity are poorly understood. To fill this knowledge gap, we reviewed historical documents to identify legal changes that altered the boundaries of Yosemite National Park. We identified two downsizes and five additions between 1905 and 1937 that reduced the size of Yosemite National Park by 30%. To examine the effects of these downsizing events on habitat fragmentation by roads, we compared protected, never-protected, and downsized lands at three spatial scales using four habitat fragmentation metrics: road density, fragment (land surrounded by roads) area-to-perimeter ratio, fragment area, and fragment density. In general, lands that were removed from protection, e.g., downsized, were more highly fragmented than protected lands and indistinguishable from never-protected lands. Lands where downsizes were reversed were less fragmented than lands where downsizes were not reversed. These results suggest that protected area downsizing may exacerbate habitat fragmentation, a key contributor to biodiversity loss globally. Furthermore, the case study in Yosemite National Park demonstrates that iconic protected areas in developed countries are not immune to downsizing. These findings underscore the need to account for PADDD and governance histories in ecological research, monitoring, and evaluation. As we move toward more evidence-based conservation policy, a rigorous understanding of PADDD is essential to ensure that protected areas fulfill their promise as a strategy for conserving global biodiversity.

Predicting bee community responses to land-use changes: Effects of geographic and taxonomic biases

Land-use change and intensification threaten bee populations worldwide, imperilling pollination services. Global models are needed to better characterise, project, and mitigate bees' responses to these human impacts. The available data are, however, geographically and taxonomically unrepresentative; most data are from North America and Western Europe, overrepresenting bumblebees and raising concerns that model results may not be generalizable to other regions and taxa. To assess whether the geographic and taxonomic biases of data could undermine effectiveness of models for conservation policy, we have collated from the published literature a global dataset of bee diversity at sites facing land-use change and intensification, and assess whether bee responses to these pressures vary across 11 regions (Western, Northern, Eastern and Southern Europe; North, Central and South America; Australia and New Zealand; South East Asia; Middle and Southern Africa) and between bumblebees and other bees. Our analyses highlight strong regionally-based responses of total abundance, species richness and Simpson's diversity to land use, caused by variation in the sensitivity of species and potentially in the nature of threats. These results suggest that global extrapolation of models based on geographically and taxonomically restricted data may underestimate the true uncertainty, increasing the risk of ecological surprises.

Of sets of offsets: Cumulative impacts and strategies for compensatory restoration

Biodiversity offsets are increasingly advocated as a flexible approach to managing the ecological costs of economic development. Arguably, however, this remains an area where policy-making has run ahead of science. A growing number of studies identify limitations of offsets in achieving ecologically sustainable outcomes, pointing to ethical and implementation issues that may undermine their effectiveness. We develop a novel system dynamic modelling framework to analyze the no net loss objective of development and biodiversity offsets. The modelling framework considers a marine-based example, where resource abundance depends on a habitat that is affected by a sequence of development projects, and biodiversity offsets are understood as habitat restoration actions. The model is used to explore the implications of four alternative offset management strategies for a regulator, which differ in how net loss is measured, and whether and how the cumulative impacts of development are considered. Our results confirm that, when it comes to offsets as a conservation tool, the devil lies in the details. Approaches to determining the magnitude of offsets required, as well as their timing and allocation among multiple developers, can result in potentially complex and undesired sets of economic incentives, with direct impacts on the ability to meet the overall objective of ecologically sustainable development. The approach and insights are of direct interest to conservation policy design in a broad range of marine and coastal contexts.