Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hotel Valuation Software, Version 4.0

[Updated August 2016] The Hotel Valuation Software, freely available from Cornell’s Center for Hospitality Research, has been updated to reflect the many changes in the 11th Edition of the Uniform System of Accounts for the Lodging Industry (USALI). Version 4.0 of the Hotel Valuation Software provides numerous enhancements over the original tool from 2011. In addition to a significant increase in functionality and an update to reflect the 11th edition of the USALI, Version 4.0 takes advantage of the power of the latest release of Microsoft Excel®. Note that Version 4.0 works only on a PC running Microsoft Windows, it does not work on a Mac running OS X. Users desiring an OS X compatible version should click here (Labeled as Version 2.5). 酒店评估软件手册和三个程序（点击这里 ) Users desiring a Mandarin version of the Hotel Valuation Software should click here The Hotel Valuation Software remains the only non-proprietary computer software designed specifically to assist in the preparation of market studies, forecasts of income and expense, and valuations for lodging property. The software provides an accurate, consistent, and cost-effective way for hospitality professionals to forecast occupancy, revenues and expenses and to perform hotel valuations. Version 4.0 of the Hotel Valuation Software includes the following upgrades – a complete update to reflect the 11th edition of the USALI – the most significant change to the chart of accounts in a generation, an average daily rate forecasting tool, a much more sophisticated valuation module, and an optional valuation tool useful in periods of limited capital liquidity. Using established methodology, the Hotel Valuation Software is a sophisticated tool for lodging professionals. The tool consists of three separate software programs written as Microsoft Excel files and a software users' guide. The tool is provided through the generosity of HVS and the School of Hotel Administration. The three software modules are: Room Night Analysis and Average Daily Rate: Enables the analyst to evaluate the various competitive factors such as occupancy, average room rate, and market segmentation for competitive hotels in a local market. Calculates the area-wide occupancy and average room rate, as well as the competitive market mix. Produce a forecast of occupancy and average daily rate for existing and proposed hotels in a local market. The program incorporates such factors as competitive occupancies, market segmentation, unaccommodated demand, latent demand, growth of demand, and the relative competitiveness of each property in the local market. The program outputs include ten-year projections of occupancy and average daily rate. Fixed and Variable Revenue and Expense Analysis: The key to any market study and valuation is a supportable forecast of revenues and expenses. Hotel revenue and expenses are comprised of many different components that display certain fixed and variable relationships to each other. This program enables the analyst to input comparable financial operating data and forecast a complete 11-year income and expense statement by defining a small set of inputs: The expected future occupancy levels for the subject hotel Base year operating data for the subject hotel Fixed and variable relationships for revenues and expenses Expected inflation rates for revenues and expenses Hotel Capitalization Software: A discounted cash flow valuation model utilizing the mortgage-equity technique forms the basis for this program. Values are produced using three distinct underwriting criteria: A loan-to-value ratio, in which the size of the mortgage is based on property value. A debt coverage ratio (also known as a debt-service coverage ratio), in which the size of the mortgage is based on property level cash flow, mortgage interest rate, and mortgage amortization. A debt yield, in which the size of the mortgage is based on property level cash flow. By entering the terms of typical lodging financing, along with a forecast of revenue and expense, the program determines the value that provides the stated returns to the mortgage and equity components. The program allows for a variable holding period from four to ten years The program includes an optional model useful during periods of capital market illiquidity that assumes a property refinancing during the holding period

Organização flexível do conhecimento : estratégias para a retenção e transmissão do conhecimento e do saber-fazer nas empresas do sector metalúrgico, metalomecânico e electromecânico

Trabalho de projecto de mestrado, Ciências da Educação (Formação de Adultos), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Educação, 2011

Desenvolvimento de um modelo para avaliar o nível lean de uma organização: caso de estudo

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica Perfil de Manutenção e Produção

App mobile “My Corine de Farme”

Trabalho de projeto apresentado à Escola Superior de Comunicação Social como parte dos requisitos para obtenção de grau de mestre em Publicidade e Marketing.

Centro de incubação empresarial como facilitador de empreendedorismo

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Empreendedorismo e Internacionalização, sob orientação da Professora Doutora Maria Clara Ribeiro

Desenvolvimento do Filme Plástico Paper Like

A indústria de transformação de material plástico contribui de forma relevante para o desenvolvimento da economia mundial. Com o objetivo de desenvolvimento dessa indústria, a empresa Pentaplast S. A., situada em Água Longa, Santo Tirso, desenvolve a conceção de novos produtos para novas aplicações. Esta empresa para continuar na posição de destaque que possui, tem que conduzir a sua existência na melhoria contínua e atualização fase ao mercado. Na indústria termoformadora existe uma procura constante de novos materiais, visto ser um mercado muito competitivo. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver um filme plástico com o aspeto de papel para a indústria termoformadora, criando desta forma um impacto no consumidor para a preocupação ambiental. De forma a encontrar soluções para o problema mencionado, conduziu-se ao estudo e desenvolvimento de um novo produto – Paper Like, sendo este, um produto reciclável e adotado às necessidades da termoformação. Para isso, desenvolveu-se o projeto utilizando o processo de termolaminação, com a adição de um aditivo na camada externa, permitindo incorporar ao filme plástico, o aspeto e textura de papel. Foram testados, separadamente, dois aditivos, X e Y, base PET e PE, respetivamente, com diferentes percentagens de incorporação. O aditivo X foi desenvolvido especialmente para este projeto, tendo como base politereftalato de etileno, no entanto com a sua incorporação não se obteve os resultados esperados, somente dava um aspeto mate ao filme extrudidos. O aditivo Y, já existe no mercado mas nunca utilizado em extrusão plana, tem como base polietileno e a sua incorporação permitiu obter um filme com aspeto de papel, comprovando-se a sua compatibilidade com pigmentos, os quais dão diversas cores aos filmes, permitindo assim competir com os filmes tradicionais. Infelizmente a termolaminação do filme com o aditivo Y não foi possível, o que inviabiliza a selagem da embalagem.

Auditoria de recursos humanos nas PME portuguesas

Ao longo dos tempos que a economia tem sofrido mudanças a nível global, e é possível verificar que as empresas estão constantemente a adaptar-se a essa mudança. Fruto dessa adaptação, os recursos humanos, que são uma das partes fundamentais de uma empresa pois representam a sua mão-de-obra, têm tido um papel junto da mesma significativamente alterado ao longo do tempo. De facto, não só o papel dos recursos humanos tem sido diferente ao longo do tempo, a própria gestão de recursos humanos evoluiu significativamente, a par da própria evolução das várias estruturas organizacionais. Tudo isto se relaciona com a necessidade de encontrar métodos de diferenciação, de adquirir vantagem competitiva, ou de conseguir obter mais valor num mercado cada vez mais competitivo a todos os níveis. Assim, embora hoje em dia se assuma de um modo geral que os recursos humanos são realmente uma fonte de valor, capazes de fazer com que a sua empresa se diferencie, e capazes de criar vantagem competitiva, a verdade é que para que tal seja possível é necessário uma gestão dos mesmos que o possibilite. A gestão de recursos humanos traduz-se sobretudo nas suas práticas, tais como o recrutamento ou a formação, e para que essas práticas tenham o melhor efeito possível é necessário que as mesmas sejam avaliadas de forma imparcial, ou seja, independente. É neste contexto que surge a Auditoria de Recursos Humanos, que se pode resumir a uma avaliação aos recursos humanos e à sua gestão dos pontos de vista legal, funcional, e estratégico. Com o objectivo de verificar se, no contexto português, as empresas pensam nos seus recursos humanos como um recurso que acrescenta valor se gerido adequadamente, e se apostam neste tipo de auditoria como forma de avaliar o paradigma dos seus recursos humanos, foi elaborado um questionário e enviado a empresas distinguidas com os estatutos PME Líder 2014 e PME Excelência 2014 pelo IAPMEI. As conclusões do estudo indicaram que embora as empresas acreditem que os recursos humanos acrescentam valor, apostando na sua motivação, formação, avaliação de desempenho e satisfação, as mesmas não fazem questão em obter a certificação dos seus sistemas de gestão de recursos humanos e não utilizam a auditoria de recursos humanos como uma ferramenta de gestão.

Criação de um negócio de comércio electrónico com base em marketing de rede

Projeto de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto, para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Empreendedorismo e Internacionalização, sob orientação da Professora Doutora Ana Azevedo

Imparidades em inventários

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação da Doutora Albertina Paula Monteiro Esta versão contém as críticas e sugestões dos elementos do júri.

Pricing strategies of the supermarket sector

The food retail industry is a very competitive market. Supermarkets use a combination of price, quality of products and service to lure consumers and increase their profit. This work project draws upon both empirical and theoretical literatures to understand the different pricing strategies that the supermarket sector uses. Everyday Low Price, Promotional, Zone Pricing and Loyalty Programs are the most common pricing strategies in this industry. By using data from the Portuguese supermarket leader – Pingo Doce - , this work project conclude that Pingo Doce uses a combination of Loyalty Program and Promotion to attain the desired outcomes

Students' choice of a master in management in Portugal: A means-end chain approach

In the increasingly competitive market of higher education introduced by the Bologna Declaration, understanding the decision-making of master in management students is at the center of institutional management and marketing efforts on its mission to attract prospective students in a less costly, more efficient manner. The means-end chain approach, applied to the choice of a Portuguese institution in which to pursue a master in management, points to the position in rankings and to the non-specificity of the program as the most important attributes. Additionally, results show that students with distinct demographic, household, or background characteristics choose in significantly different manners.

Contracts, Reference Points, and Competition - Behavioral Effects of the Fundamental Transformation

In this paper we study the role of incomplete ex ante contracts for ex post trade. Previous experimental evidence indicates that a contract provides a reference point for entitlements when the terms are negotiated in a competitive market. We show that this finding no longer holds when the terms are determined in a non-competitive way. Our results imply that the presence of a "fundamental transformation" (i.e., the transition from a competitive market to a bilateral relationship) is important for a contract to become a reference point. To the best of our knowledge this behavioral aspect of the fundamental transformation has not been shown before.

Application of the european customer satisfaction index to postal services. Structural equation models versus partial least squars

Customer satisfaction and retention are key issues for organizations in today’s competitive market place. As such, much research and revenue has been invested in developing accurate ways of assessing consumer satisfaction at both the macro (national) and micro (organizational) level, facilitating comparisons in performance both within and between industries. Since the instigation of the national customer satisfaction indices (CSI), partial least squares (PLS) has been used to estimate the CSI models in preference to structural equation models (SEM) because they do not rely on strict assumptions about the data. However, this choice was based upon some misconceptions about the use of SEM’s and does not take into consideration more recent advances in SEM, including estimation methods that are robust to non-normality and missing data. In this paper, both SEM and PLS approaches were compared by evaluating perceptions of the Isle of Man Post Office Products and Customer service using a CSI format. The new robust SEM procedures were found to be advantageous over PLS. Product quality was found to be the only driver of customer satisfaction, while image and satisfaction were the only predictors of loyalty, thus arguing for the specificity of postal services