Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Quantitative evaluation of route allocation solutions at large-scale passenger stations

Routing trains within passenger stations in major cities is a common scheduling problem for railway operation. Various studies have been undertaken to derive and formulate solutions to this route allocation problem (RAP) which is particularly evident in mainland China nowadays because of the growing traffic demand and limited station capacity. A reasonable solution must be selected from a set of available RAP solutions attained in the planning stage to facilitate station operation. The selection is however based on the experience of the operators only and objective evaluation of the solutions is rarely addressed. In order to maximise the utilisation of station capacity while maintaining service quality and allowing for service disturbance, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is highly desirable. In this study, quantitative evaluation of RAP solutions is proposed and it is enabled by a set of indices covering infrastructure utilisation, buffer times and delay propagation. The proposed evaluation is carried out on a number of RAP solutions at a real-life busy railway station in mainland China and the results highlight the effectiveness of the indices in pinpointing the strengths and weaknesses of the solutions. This study provides the necessary platform to improve the RAP solution in planning and to allow train re-routing upon service disturbances.

Channel-aware routing in MANETs with route handoff

In wireless mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs), packet transmission is impaired by radio link fluctuations. This paper proposes a novel channel adaptive routing protocol which extends the Ad-hoc On-Demand Multipath Distance Vector routing protocol (AOMDV) to accommodate channel fading. Specifically, the proposed Channel Aware AOMDV (CA-AOMDV) uses the channel average non-fading duration as a routing metric to select stable links for path discovery, and applies a preemptive handoff strategy to maintain reliable connections by exploiting channel state information. Using the same information, paths can be reused when they become available again, rather than being discarded. We provide new theoretical results for the downtime and lifetime of a live-die-live multiple path system, as well as detailed theoretical expressions for common network performance measures, providing useful insights into the differences in performance between CA-AOMDV and AOMDV. Simulation and theoretical results show that CA-AOMDV has greatly improved network performance over AOMDV.

A Raman and infrared spectroscopic study of the mineral delvauxite CaFe3+4(PO4,SO4)2(OH)8•4-6H2O- a ‘colloidal’ mineral

The mineral delvauxite CaFe3+4(PO4,SO4)2(OH)8•4-6H2O has been characterised by Raman spectroscopy and infrared spectroscopy. The mineral is associated with the minerals diadochite and destinezite. Delvauxite appears to vary in crystallinity from amorphous to semi-crystalline. The mineral is often X-ray non-diffracting. The minerals are found in soils and may be described as ‘colloidal’ minerals. Vibrational spectroscopy enables determination of the molecular structure of delvauxite. Bands are assigned to phosphate and sulphate stretching and bending modes. Two symmetric stretching modes for both the phosphate and sulphate symmetric stretching modes support the concept of non-equivalent phosphate and sulphate units in the mineral structure. Multiple water bending and stretching modes imply that non-equivalent water molecules in the structure exist with different hydrogen bond strengths.

A solvothermal route to crystalline lithium niobate

A solvothermal route for the preparation of crystalline state lithium niobate using Li2 CO3 and Nb2 O5 is developed. Oxalic acid is employed as solvent, which coordinates with niobium oxide to stimulate the main reaction. Scanning electron microscopy images show that the as-prepared sample displays a cubic morphology. X-ray diffraction and IR spectrum of the as-prepared sample indicate that the sample is well crystalline.

Facile synthesis of Lithium Niobate squares by a combustion route

A combustion synthesis of lithium niobate (LN) squares from activated niobium oxide (Nb2 O5.nH2O) and Li2CO3 was studied to understand all the chemical reactions involved, and the nucleation and square-growth mechanisms. It was found that first the lithium ions react with the fuel (urea), then niobium ions of Nb2 O5.nH2O begin a continuous reaction with the fuel to form metal-organic complexes. LN nuclei are formed by the solid-state reaction of Li- and Nb-organic complexes at 430 degrees celcius. Lithium niobate squares are obtained in the crystallization stasge at 700 degrees celcius, which go on the grow into larger squares at 850 degrees celcius because of the agglomeration effect.

Amine-sssisted route to fabricate LiNbO3 particles with a tunable shape

An ethylenediamine-assisted route has been designed for one-step synthesis of lithium niobate particles with a novel rodlike structure in an aqueous solution system. The morphological evolution for these lithium niobate rods was monitored via SEM: The raw materials form large lozenges first. These lozenges are a metastable intermediate of this reaction, and they subsequently crack into small rods after sufficiently long time. These small rods recrystallize and finally grow into individual lithium niobate rods. Interestingly, shape-controlled fabrication of lithium niobate powders was achieved through using different amine ligands. For instance, the ethylenediamine or ethanolamine ligan can induce the formation of rods, while n-butylamine prefers to construct hollow spheres. These as-obtained lithium niobate rods and hollow spheres may exhibit enhanced performance in an optical application field due to their distinctive structures. This effective ligand-tuned-morphology route can provide a new strategy to facilely achieve the shape-controlled synthesis of other niobates.

Removal of toxic arsenic and antimony from groundwater Spiro Tunnel Bulkhead in Park City Utah using colloidal iron hydroxide : comparison with reverse ssmosis

Verification testing of two model technologies in pilot scale to remove arsenic and antimony based on reverse osmosis and chemical coagulation/filtration systems was conducted in Spiro Tunnel Water Filtration Plant located in Park City, Utah, US. The source water was groundwater in abandoned silver mine, naturally contaminated by 60-80 ppb of arsenic and antimony below 10 ppb. This water represents one of the sources of drinking water for Park City and constitutes about 44% of the water supply. The failure to remove antimony efficiently by coagulation/filtration (only 4.4% removal rate) under design conditions is discussed in terms of the chemistry differences between Sb (III, V) and As (III, V). Removal of Sb(V) at pH > 7, using coagulation/filtration technology, requires much higher (50 to 80 times) concentration of iron (III) than As. The stronger adsorption of arsenate over a wider pH range can be explained by the fact that arsenic acid is tri-protic, whereas antimonic acid is monoprotic. This difference in properties of As(V) and Sb(V) makes antimony (V) more difficult to be efficiently removed in low concentrations of iron hydroxide and alkaline pH waters, especially in concentration of Sb < 10 ppb.

Diels-Alder reactions as an efficient route to high purity cyclic polymers

A simple and efficient route for the synthesis of cyclic polymer systems is presented. Linear furan protected α-maleimide-ω-cyclopentadienyl functionalized precursors (poly(methyl methacrylate) and poly(tert-butyl acrylate)) were synthesized via atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) and subsequent substitution of the bromine end-group with cyclopentadiene. Upon heating at high dilution, deprotection of the dieneophile occurs followed by an intramolecular Diels–Alder reaction yielding a high purity cyclic product.

Towards condition-invariant sequence-based route recognition

In this paper we present a novel algorithm for localization during navigation that performs matching over local image sequences. Instead of calculating the single location most likely to correspond to a current visual scene, the approach finds candidate matching locations within every section (subroute) of all learned routes. Through this approach, we reduce the demands upon the image processing front-end, requiring it to only be able to correctly pick the best matching image from within a short local image sequence, rather than globally. We applied this algorithm to a challenging downhill mountainbiking visual dataset where there was significant perceptual or environment change between repeated traverses of the environment, and compared performance to applying the feature-based algorithm FAB-MAP. The results demonstrate the potential for localization using visual sequences, even when there are no visual features that can be reliably detected.

ACE research vignette 008 : acquisitions - a route to new growth opportunities?

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team and other international Entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette, Professor Per Davidsson considers some of the dynamics associated with firm growth.

Visual route recognition with a handful of bits

In this paper we use a sequence-based visual localization algorithm to reveal surprising answers to the question, how much visual information is actually needed to conduct effective navigation? The algorithm actively searches for the best local image matches within a sliding window of short route segments or 'sub-routes', and matches sub-routes by searching for coherent sequences of local image matches. In contract to many existing techniques, the technique requires no pre-training or camera parameter calibration. We compare the algorithm's performance to the state-of-the-art FAB-MAP 2.0 algorithm on a 70 km benchmark dataset. Performance matches or exceeds the state of the art feature-based localization technique using images as small as 4 pixels, fields of view reduced by a factor of 250, and pixel bit depths reduced to 2 bits. We present further results demonstrating the system localizing in an office environment with near 100% precision using two 7 bit Lego light sensors, as well as using 16 and 32 pixel images from a motorbike race and a mountain rally car stage. By demonstrating how little image information is required to achieve localization along a route, we hope to stimulate future 'low fidelity' approaches to visual navigation that complement probabilistic feature-based techniques.