Spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery in China from 1990 to 2009: What is the driver behind?

BACKGROUND Little is known about the spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery (BD) in China. This study assessed the geographic distribution and seasonality of BD in China over the past two decades. METHODS Data on monthly BD cases in 31 provinces of China from January 1990 to December 2009 obtained from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and data on demographic and geographic factors, as well as climatic factors, were compiled. The spatial distributions of BD in the four periods across different provinces were mapped, and heat maps were created to present the seasonality of BD by geography. A cosinor function combined with Poisson regression was used to quantify the seasonal parameters of BD, and a regression analysis was conducted to identify the potential drivers of morbidity and seasonality of BD. RESULTS Although most regions of China have experienced considerable declines in BD morbidity over the past two decades, Beijing and Ningxia still had high BD morbidity in 2009. BD morbidity decreased more slowly in North-west China than other regions. BD in China mainly peaked from July to September, with heterogeneity in peak time between regions. Relative humidity was associated with BD morbidity and peak time, and latitude was the major predictor of BD amplitude. CONCLUSIONS The transmission of BD was heterogeneous in China. Improved sanitation and hygiene in North-west China, and better access to clean water and food in the big floating population in some metropolises could be the focus of future preventive interventions against BD. BD control efforts should put more emphasis on those dry areas in summer.

The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: An epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China

Background Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China. Method We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities. Results Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050). Conclusion Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature.

Pheromone-trapping of Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) in stone fruit orchards near Gosford, New South Wales: Fauna, seasonality and effect of insecticides

Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromones of Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), Carpophilus mutilatus Erichson and Carpophilus davidsoni Dobson and fermenting bread dough were used to identify the fauna and monitor the seasonal abundance of Carpophilus spp. in insecticide treated peach and nectarine orchards in the Gosford area of coastal New South Wales. In four orchards 67 178 beetles were trapped during 1994–1995, with C. davidsoni (82%) and Carpophilus gaveni (Dobson) (12.2%) dominating catches. Five species (C. hemipterus, C. mutilatus, Carpophilus marginellus Motschulsky, Carpophilus humeralis (F.) and an unidentified species) each accounted for 0.2–3.2% of trapped beetles. Carpophilus davidsoni was most abundant during late September–early October but numbers declined rapidly during October, usually before insecticides were applied. Spring populations of Carpophilus spp. were very large in 1994–1995 (1843–2588 per trap per week). However, despite a preharvest population decline of approximately 95% and 2–11 applications of insecticide, 14–545 beetles per trap per week (above the arbitrary fruit damage threshold of 10 beetles per trap per week) were recorded during the harvest period and fruit damage occurred at three of the four orchards. Lower preharvest populations in 1995–1996 (< 600 per trap per week) and up to six applications of insecticide resulted in < 10 beetles per trap per week during most of the harvest period and minimal or no fruit damage. The implications of these results for the integrated management of Carpophilus spp. in coastal and inland areas of southeastern Australia are discussed.

Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry

The Gascoyne-Murchison region of Western Australia experiences an arid to semi-arid climate with a highly variable temporal and spatial rainfall distribution. The region has around 39.2 million hectares available for pastoral lease and supports predominantly catle and sheep grazing leases. In recent years a number of climate forecasting systems have been available offering rainfall probabilities with different lead times and a forecast period; however, the extent to which these systems are capable of fulfilling the requirements of the local pastoralists is still ambiguous. Issues can range from ensuring forecasts are issued with sufficient lead time to enable key planning or decisions to be revoked or altered, to ensuring forecast language is simple and clear, to negate possible misunderstandings in interpretation. A climate research project sought to provide an objective method to determine which available forecasting systems had the greatest forecasting skill at times of the year relevant to local property management. To aid this climate research project, the study reported here was undertaken with an overall objective of exploring local pastoralists' climate information needs. We also explored how well they understand common climate forecast terms such as 'mean', median' and 'probability', and how they interpret and apply forecast information to decisions. A stratified, proportional random sampling was used for the purpose of deriving the representative sample based on rainfall-enterprise combinations. In order to provide more time for decision-making than existing operational forecasts that are issued with zero lead time, pastoralists requested that forecasts be issued for May-July and January-March with lead times counting down from 4 to 0 months. We found forecasts of between 20 and 50 mm break-of-season or follow-up rainfall were likely to influence decisions. Eighty percent of pastoralists demonstrated in a test question that they had a poor technical understanding of how to interpret the standard wording of a probabilistic median rainfall forecast. this is worthy of further research to investigate whether inappropriate management decisions are being made because the forecasts are being misunderstood. We found more than half the respondents regularly access and use weather and climate forecasts or outlook information from a range of sources and almost three-quarters considered climate information or tools useful, with preferred methods for accessing this information by email, faxback service, internet and the Department of Agriculture Western Australia's Pastoral Memo. Despite differences in enterprise types and rainfall seasonality across the region we found seasonal climate forecasting needs were relatively consistent. It became clear that providing basic training and working with pastoralists to help them understand regional climatic drivers, climate terminology and jargon, and the best ways to apply the forecasts to enhance decision-making are important to improve their use of information. Consideration could also be given to engaging a range of producers to write the climate forecasts themselves in the language they use and understand, in consultation with the scientists who prepare the forecasts.

Climatic-requirements models of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae) to prioritise areas for exploration and release of biological control agents

Climate matching software (CLIMEX) was used to prioritise areas to explore for biological control agents in the native range of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae), and to prioritise areas to release the agents in the introduced ranges of the plant. The native distribution of cat's claw creeper was used to predict the potential range of climatically suitable habitats for cat's claw creeper in its introduced ranges. A Composite Match Index (CMI) of cat's claw creeper was determined with the 'Match Climates' function in order to match the ranges in Australia and South Africa where the plant is introduced with its native range in South and Central America. This information was used to determine which areas might yield climatically-adapted agents. Locations in northern Argentina had CMI values which best matched sites with cat's claw creeper infestations in Australia and South Africa. None of the sites from where three currently prioritised biological control agents for cat's claw creeper were collected had CMI values higher than 0.8. The analysis showed that central and eastern Argentina, south Brazil, Uruguay and parts of Bolivia and Paraguay should be prioritised for exploration for new biological control agents for cat's claw creeper to be used in Australia and South Africa.

Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM's maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ≤ 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. I. Gradients in the radiation environment and atmospheric demand

In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1-7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.

Timing of infection of macadamia fruit by Pseudocercospora macadamiae and climatic effects on growth and spore germination.

Pseudocercospora macadamiae causes husk spot of macadamia. Husk spot control would be improved by verifying the stages in fruit development susceptible to infection, and determine some of the climatic conditions likely to lead to high disease pressure periods in the field. Our results showed that the percent conidia germination and growth of germ tubes and mycelia of P. macadamiae were greatest at 26 degrees C, with better conidia germination associated with high relative humidity and free water. The exposure of match-head-sized and pea-sized fruit stages to natural P. macadamiae inoculum in the field led to 2 5-fold increases in husk spot incidence, and up to 8.5-fold increases in premature abscission, compared with unexposed fruit. Exposure of fruit stages later than match-head-sized and pea-sized fruit generally caused no further increases in disease incidence or premature abscission. Climatic conditions were found to have a strong influence on the behaviour of P. macadamiae, the host, oil accumulation, and the subsequent impact of husk spot on premature abscission. Our findings suggest that fungicide application should target fruit at the match-head-sized stage of development in order to best reduce yield losses, particularly in seasons where oil accumulation in fruit is prolonged and climatic conditions are optimal for P. macadamiae.

Winter feeding strategies for suckler cows in cold climatic conditions

In Finland, suckler cow production is carried out in circumstances characterized by a long winter period and a short grazing period. The traditional winter housing system for suckler cows has been insulated or uninsulated buildings, but there is a demand for developing less expensive housing systems. In addition, more information is needed on new winter feeding strategies, carried out in inexpensive winter facilities with conventional (hay, grass silage, straw) or alternative (treated straw, industrial by-product, whole-crop silage) feeds. The new feeding techniques should not have any detrimental effects on animal welfare in order to be acceptable to both farmers and consumers. Furthermore, no official feeding recommendations for suckler cows are available in Finland and, thus, recommendations for dairy cows have been used. However, this may lead to over- or underfeeding of suckler cows and, finally, to decreased economic output. In Experiment I, second-calf beef-dairy suckler cows were used to compare the effects of diets based on hay (H) or urea-treated straw (US) at two feeding levels (Moderate; M vs. Low; L) on the performance of cows and calves. Live weight (LW) gain during the indoor feeding was lower for cows on level L than on level M. Cows on diet US lost more LW indoors than those on diet H. The cows replenished the LW losses on good pasture. Calf LW gain and cow milk production were unaffected by the treatments. Conception rate was unaffected by the treatments but was only 69%. Urea-treated straw proved to be a suitable winter feed for spring-calving suckler cows. Experiment II studied the effects of feeding accuracy on the performance of first- and second-calf beef-dairy cows and calves. In II-1, the day-to-day variation in the roughage offered ranged up to ± 40%. In II-2, the same variation was used in two-week periods. Variation of the roughages offered had minor effects on cow performance. Reproduction was unaffected by the feeding accuracy. Accurate feeding is not necessary for young beef-dairy crosses, if the total amount of energy offered over a period of a few weeks fulfills the energy requirements. Effects of feeding strategies with alternative feeds on the performance of mature beef-dairy and beef cows and calves were evaluated in Experiment III. Two studies consisted of two feeding strategies (Step-up vs. Flat-rate) and two diets (Control vs. Alternative). There were no differences between treatments in the cow LW, body condition score (BCS), calf pre-weaning LW gain and cow reproduction. A flat-rate strategy can be practised in the nutrition of mature suckler cows. Oat hull based flour-mill by product can partly replace grass silage and straw in the winter diet. Whole-crop barley silage can be offered as a sole feed to suckler cows. Experiment IV evaluated during the winter feeding period the effects of replacing grass silage with whole-crop barley or oat silage on mature beef cow and calf performance. Both whole-crop silages were suitable winter feeds for suckler cows in cold outdoor winter conditions. Experiment V aimed at assessing the effects of daily feeding vs. feeding every third day on the performance of mature beef cows and calves. No differences between the treatments were observed in cow LW, BCS, milk production and calf LW. The serum concentrations of urea and long-chain fatty acids were increased on the third day after feeding in the cows fed every third day. Despite of that the feeding every third day is an acceptable feeding strategy for mature suckler cows. Experiment VI studied the effects of feeding levels and long-term cold climatic conditions on mature beef cows and calves. The cows were overwintered in outdoor facilities or in an uninsulated indoor facility. Whole-crop barley silage was offered either ad libitum or restricted. All the facilities offered adequate shelter for the cows. The restricted offering of whole-crop barley silage provided enough energy for the cows. The Finnish energy recommendations for dairy cows were too high for mature beef breed suckler cows in good body condition at housing, even in cold conditions. Therefore, there is need to determine feeding recommendations for suckler cows in Finland. The results showed that the required amount of energy can be offered to the cows using conventional or alternative feeds provided at a lower feeding level, with an inaccurate feeding, flat-rate feeding or feeding every third day strategy. The cows must have an opportunity to replenish the LW and BCS losses at pasture before the next winter. Production in cold conditions can be practised in inexpensive facilities when shelter against rain and wind, a dry resting place, adequate amounts of feed suitable for cold conditions and water are provided for the animals as was done in the present study.

Impacts of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.

The Genetic Architecture of Climatic Adaptation of Tropical Cattle

Adaptation of global food systems to climate change is essential to feed the world. Tropical cattle production, a mainstay of profitability for farmers in the developing world, is dominated by heat, lack of water, poor quality feedstuffs, parasites, and tropical diseases. In these systems European cattle suffer significant stock loss, and the cross breeding of taurine x indicine cattle is unpredictable due to the dilution of adaptation to heat and tropical diseases. We explored the genetic architecture of ten traits of tropical cattle production using genome wide association studies of 4,662 animals varying from 0% to 100% indicine. We show that nine of the ten have genetic architectures that include genes of major effect, and in one case, a single location that accounted for more than 71% of the genetic variation. One genetic region in particular had effects on parasite resistance, yearling weight, body condition score, coat colour and penile sheath score. This region, extending 20 Mb on BTA5, appeared to be under genetic selection possibly through maintenance of haplotypes by breeders. We found that the amount of genetic variation and the genetic correlations between traits did not depend upon the degree of indicine content in the animals. Climate change is expected to expand some conditions of the tropics to more temperate environments, which may impact negatively on global livestock health and production. Our results point to several important genes that have large effects on adaptation that could be introduced into more temperate cattle without detrimental effects on productivity.

The Miocene of Western Asia; Fossil mammals at the crossroads of faunal provinces and climate regimes

Being at the crossroads of the Old World continents, Western Asia has a unique position through which the dispersal and migration of mammals and the interaction of faunal bioprovinces occurred. Despite its critical position, the record of Miocene mammals in Western Asia is sporadic and there are large spatial and temporal gaps between the known fossil localities. Although the development of the mammalian faunas in the Miocene of the Old World is well known and there is ample evidence for environmental shifts in this epoch, efforts toward quantification of habitat changes and development of chronofaunas based on faunal compositions were mostly neglected. Advancement of chronological, paleoclimatological, and paleogeographical reconstruction tools and techniques and increased numbers of new discoveries in recent decades have brought the need for updating and modification of our level of understanding. We under took fieldwork and systematic study of mammalian trace and body fossils from the northwestern parts of Iran along with analysis of large mammal data from the NOW database. The data analysis was used to study the provinciality, relative abundance, and distribution history of the closed- and open-adapted taxa and chronofaunas in the Miocene of the Old World and Western Asia. The provinciality analysis was carried out, using locality clustering, and the relative abundance of the closed- and open-adapted taxa was surveyed at the family level. The distribution history of the chronofaunas was studied, using faunal resemblance indices and new mapping techniques, together with humidity analysis based on mean ordinated hypsodonty. Paleoichnological studies revealed the abundance of mammalian footprints in several parts of the basins studied, which are normally not fossiliferous in terms of body fossils. The systematic study and biochronology of the newly discovered mammalian fossils in northwestern Iran indicates their close affinities with middle Turolian faunas. Large cranial remains of hipparionine horses, previously unknown in Iran and Western Asia, are among the material studied. The initiation of a new field project in the famous Maragheh locality also brings new opportunities to address questions regarding the chronology and paleoenvironment of this classical site. Provinciality analysis modified our previous level of understandings, indicating the interaction of four provinces in Western Asia. The development of these provinces was apparently due to the presence of high mountain ranges in the area, which affected the dispersal of mammals and also climatic patterns. Higher temperatures and possibly higher co2 levels in the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum apparently favored the development of the closed forested environments that supported the dominance of the closed-adapted taxa. The increased seasonality and the progressive cooling and drying of the midlatitudes toward the Late Miocene maintained the dominance of open-adapted faunas. It appears that the late Middle Miocene was the time of transition from a more forested to a less forested world. The distribution history of the closed- and open-adapted chronofaunas shows the presence of cosmopolitan and endemic faunas in Western Asia. The closed-adapted faunas, such as the Arabian chronofauna of the late Early‒early Middle Miocene, demonstrated a rapid buildup and gradual decline. The open-adapted chronofaunas, such as the Late Miocene Maraghean fauna, climaxed gradually by filling the opening environments and moving in response to changes in humidity patterns. They abruptly declined due to demise of their favored environments. The Siwalikan chronofauna of the early Late Miocene remained endemic and restricted through all its history. This study highlights the importance of field investigations and indicates that new surveys in the vast areas of Western Asia, which are poorly sampled in terms of fossil mammal localities, can still be promising. Clustering of the localities supports the consistency of formerly known patterns and augments them. Although the quantitative approach to relative abundance history of the closed- and open-adapted mammals harks back to more than half a century ago, it is a novel technique providing robust results. Tracking the history of the chronofaunas in space and time by means of new computational and illustration methods is also a new practice that can be expanded to new areas and time spans.

The host specificity and climatic suitability of the gall flyCecidochares connexa(Diptera: Tephritidae), a potential biological control agent for Chromolaena odorata(Asteraceae) in Australia

The gall fly Cecidochares connexa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a potential biological control agent for Chromolaena odorata in Australia. Its host specificity was determined against 18 species in the tribe Eupatorieae (Family Asteraceae) in which C. odorata belongs, in quarantine in Brisbane, Australia. Oviposition occurred and flies developed on only C. odorata and Praxelis clematidea, both of which are in the subtribe Praxelinae. P. clematidea is considered a weed outside tropical America. In both multiple-species-minus-C. odorata choice tests and single-species no-choice tests, the mean number of galls/plant was significantly greater on C. odorata (48 and 41, respectively) than on P. clematidea (2 and 9, respectively). There were also significantly more adults emerging from C. odorata (mean 129 and 169, respectively) in the two types of tests than from P. clematidea (1 and 8, respectively). Paired choice, multiple generation (continuation) and time dependent tests further clarified the extent that C. connexa could develop on P. clematidea. In these tests, the mean number of galls formed and the mean number of emerging adults were consistently less for P. clematidea than C. odorata and populations of C. connexa could not be maintained on P. clematidea. Galls were not seen on any other plant species tested. This study supports the results of host specificity testing conducted in seven other countries and confirms that C. connexa poses little risk to other plant species in Australia. C. connexa has been released in 10 countries and an application seeking approval to release in Australia has been submitted to the Australian Government.

Phenology and seasonality in the tropical deciduous forest of Bandipur, South India

A long term study on the phenology of tree species of tropical dry deciduous forest ecosystem of Bandipur, South India has revealed patterns of strong seasonality with respect to leaf and fruit initiation as well as their abscission. The distribution of the duration of the various phenological events was observed to be skewed and there was little interannual variation in events such as flowering and fruiting. This suggests that there are, perhaps, no mast flowering or fruiting species present in the deciduous forests. The phenological changes appear to influence the food, feeding, movement patterns and sociality of the major mammals of this dry deciduous ecosystem.