Optimal choice of electoral preference data

Electoral researchers are so much accustomed to analyzing the choice of the single most preferred party as the left-hand side variable of their models of electoral behavior that they often ignore revealed preference data. Drawing on random utility theory, their models predict electoral behavior at the extensive margin of choice. Since the seminal work of Luce and others on individual choice behavior, however, many social science disciplines (consumer research, labor market research, travel demand, etc.) have extended their inventory of observed preference data with, for instance, multiple paired comparisons, complete or incomplete rankings, and multiple ratings. Eliciting (voter) preferences using these procedures and applying appropriate choice models is known to considerably increase the efficiency of estimates of causal factors in models of (electoral) behavior. In this paper, we demonstrate the efficiency gain when adding additional preference information to first preferences, up to full ranking data. We do so for multi-party systems of different sizes. We use simulation studies as well as empirical data from the 1972 German election study. Comparing the practical considerations for using ranking and single preference data results in suggestions for choice of measurement instruments in different multi-candidate and multi-party settings.

Estudio comparado de las barreras o umbrales electorales implícitos y explícitos en el sistema electoral

"...En el presente estudio se parte, en primera instancia, de la necesaria conceptualización del término, en general y particular, y en función de ello, posteriormente, a su tipificación, sistematización y análisis especifico en Latinoamérica, mientras que ofrece un panorama general de la aplicación de las barreras electorales explicitas en diferentes regiones del mundo, para luego analizar el caso colombiano en general y visualizar el impacto de la implementación de las barreras electorales explícitas a través del acto legislativo 01 de 2003 y sus efectos en los comicios nacionales de 2006."--introducción

Cleavage Politics in Changing Times. Political Realignment Processes in Western European Countries

The dissertation fits the political realignment literature and aims to pro-vide further insights into cleavage politics by investigating voting behaviour in the Western European countries’ national elections. In particular, the dis-sertation focuses on the class and value voting patterns and on the change of these patterns in different countries and over the course of time. Peculiar pro-cesses affected all Western European party systems: whilst the «traditional» cleavage theory accounts for National and Industrial revolutions, those pro-cesses assumed to constitute the «societal modernization» determined chang-es in electoral competitions that questioned the relevance of individuals’ so-cial positions to study electoral preferences. Since the associations between social positions and voting behaviour underpin the so-called political cleav-age, the dealignment perspective assumes them to have been eroding since the second half of the XX century. On the other hand, the realignment perspective argues that the cleavage theory still accounts for individuals’ vote choices: of the four «traditional» cleavages, this perspective hypothesizes new class vot-ing patterns and alignments between electoral preferences and a new line of conflict, that is based on values. The dissertation provides a theoretical ac-count of the realignment of the class cleavage and a new conceptualization of value voting. Then, class and value voting patterns are explored. The analyses employ European Social Survey data and detect general and country-specific patterns. The dissertation adopts a mediation perspective and aims to observe how class voting patterns change when controlling for value orientations. The results are provided with a sensitivity analysis, indeed two versions of the measures computed for value orientations are compared. The findings show that social class continues to affect voting behaviour and that value orienta-tions both mediate this effect and affect electoral preferences.

Too difficult to manage, too big to ignore: party choice in multiparty presidential systems

In consensual (proportional) highly fragmented multiparty settings, political parties have two historical choices to make or pathways to follow: i) playing a majoritarian role by offering credible candidates to the head of the executive; or ii) playing the median legislator game. Each of those choices will have important consequences not only for the party system but also for the government. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role played by median legislator parties on coalition management strategies of presidents in a comparative perspective. We analyze in depth the Brazilian case where the Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB) has basically functioned as the median legislator party in Congress by avoiding the approval of extreme policies, both on the left and on the right. Based on an expert survey in Latin America, we built an index of Pmdbismo and identified that there is a positive correlation between partisan fragmentation and median legislator parties. In addition, we investigate the effect of having a median legislator party in the governing coalition. We found that it is cheaper and less difficult for the government to manage the coalition having the median legislative party on board.

CLASSIFYING RADIUS FRACTURES WITH X-RAY AND TOMOGRAPHY IMAGING

Introduction: This study evaluated the interobserver reliability of plain radiograpy versus computed tomography (CT) for the Universal and AO classification systems for distal radius fractures. Patients and methods: Five observers classified 21 sets of distal radius fractures using plain radiographs and CT independently. Kappa statistics were used to establish a relative level of agreement between observers for both readings. Results: Interobserver agreement was rated as moderate for the Universal classification and poor for the AO classification. Reducing the AO system to 9 categories and to its three main types reliability was raised to a ""moderate"" level. No difference was found for interobserver reliability between the Universal classification using plain radiographs and the Universal classification using computed tomography. Interobserver reliability of the AO classification system using plain radiographs was significantly higher than the interobserver reliability of the AO classification system using only computed tomography. Conclusion: From these data, we conclude that classification of distal radius fractures using CT scanning without plain radiographs is not beneficial.

Handling mobility on a QoS-Aware servicebased framework for mobile systems

Mobile applications are becoming increasingly more complex and making heavier demands on local system resources. Moreover, mobile systems are nowadays more open, allowing users to add more and more applications, including third-party developed ones. In this perspective, it is increasingly expected that users will want to execute in their devices applications which supersede currently available resources. It is therefore important to provide frameworks which allow applications to benefit from resources available on other nodes, capable of migrating some or all of its services to other nodes, depending on the user needs. These requirements are even more stringent when users want to execute Quality of Service (QoS) aware applications, such as voice or video. The required resources to guarantee the QoS levels demanded by an application can vary with time, and consequently, applications should be able to reconfigure themselves. This paper proposes a QoS-aware service-based framework able to support distributed, migration-capable, QoS-enabled applications on top of the Android Operating system.

Scalable Intelligence for Scheduling Systems

A personalização é um aspeto chave de uma interação homem-computador efetiva. Numa era em que existe uma abundância de informação e tantas pessoas a interagir com ela, de muitas maneiras, a capacidade de se ajustar aos seus utilizadores é crucial para qualquer sistema moderno. A criação de sistemas adaptáveis é um domínio bastante complexo que necessita de métodos muito específicos para ter sucesso. No entanto, nos dias de hoje ainda não existe um modelo ou arquitetura padrão para usar nos sistemas adaptativos modernos. A principal motivação desta tese é a proposta de uma arquitetura para modelação do utilizador que seja capaz de incorporar diferentes módulos necessários para criar um sistema com inteligência escalável com técnicas de modelação. Os módulos cooperam de forma a analisar os utilizadores e caracterizar o seu comportamento, usando essa informação para fornecer uma experiência de sistema customizada que irá aumentar não só a usabilidade do sistema mas também a produtividade e conhecimento do utilizador. A arquitetura proposta é constituída por três componentes: uma unidade de informação do utilizador, uma estrutura matemática capaz de classificar os utilizadores e a técnica a usar quando se adapta o conteúdo. A unidade de informação do utilizador é responsável por conhecer os vários tipos de indivíduos que podem usar o sistema, por capturar cada detalhe de interações relevantes entre si e os seus utilizadores e também contém a base de dados que guarda essa informação. A estrutura matemática é o classificador de utilizadores, e tem como tarefa a sua análise e classificação num de três perfis: iniciado, intermédio ou avançado. Tanto as redes de Bayes como as neuronais são utilizadas, e uma explicação de como as preparar e treinar para lidar com a informação do utilizador é apresentada. Com o perfil do utilizador definido torna-se necessária uma técnica para adaptar o conteúdo do sistema. Nesta proposta, uma abordagem de iniciativa mista é apresentada tendo como base a liberdade de tanto o utilizador como o sistema controlarem a comunicação entre si. A arquitetura proposta foi desenvolvida como parte integrante do projeto ADSyS - um sistema de escalonamento dinâmico - utilizado para resolver problemas de escalonamento sujeitos a eventos dinâmicos. Possui uma complexidade elevada mesmo para utilizadores frequentes, daí a necessidade de adaptar o seu conteúdo de forma a aumentar a sua usabilidade. Com o objetivo de avaliar as contribuições deste trabalho, um estudo computacional acerca do reconhecimento dos utilizadores foi desenvolvido, tendo por base duas sessões de avaliação de usabilidade com grupos de utilizadores distintos. Foi possível concluir acerca dos benefícios na utilização de técnicas de modelação do utilizador com a arquitetura proposta.

An alternative educational indicator for classifying secondary schools in Portugal

The purpose of this paper aims at carrying out a study in the area of Statistics for classifying Portuguese Secondary Schools (both mainland and islands: “Azores” and “Madeira”), taking into account the results achieved by their students in both national examinations and internal assessment. The main according consists of identifying groups of schools with different performance levels by considering the sub-national public and private education systems’ as well as their respective geographic location. For this, we developed an alternative educational indicator for the so-called Secondary Education indicator rankings released since 2001 by the Portuguese media.

Towards reusability and tailorability in collaborative learning systems using IMS-LD and grid services

CSCL applications are complex distributed systems that posespecial requirements towards achieving success in educationalsettings. Flexible and efficient design of collaborative activitiesby educators is a key precondition in order to provide CSCL tailorable systems, capable of adapting to the needs of eachparticular learning environment. Furthermore, some parts ofthose CSCL systems should be reused as often as possible inorder to reduce development costs. In addition, it may be necessary to employ special hardware devices, computational resources that reside in other organizations, or even exceed thepossibilities of one specific organization. Therefore, theproposal of this paper is twofold: collecting collaborativelearning designs (scripting) provided by educators, based onwell-known best practices (collaborative learning flow patterns) in a standard way (IMS-LD) in order to guide the tailoring of CSCL systems by selecting and integrating reusable CSCL software units; and, implementing those units in the form of grid services offered by third party providers. More specifically, this paper outlines a grid-based CSCL system having these features and illustrates its potential scope and applicability by means of a sample collaborative learning scenario.

Secondary Accident Data Fusion for Assessing Long-Term Performance of Transportation Systems, 2007

Secondary accident statistics can be useful for studying the impact of traffic incident management strategies. An easy-to-implement methodology is presented for classifying secondary accidents using data fusion of a police accident database with intranet incident reports. A current method for classifying secondary accidents uses a static threshold that represents the spatial and temporal region of influence of the primary accident, such as two miles and one hour. An accident is considered secondary if it occurs upstream from the primary accident and is within the duration and queue of the primary accident. However, using the static threshold may result in both false positives and negatives because accident queues are constantly varying. The methodology presented in this report seeks to improve upon this existing method by making the threshold dynamic. An incident progression curve is used to mark the end of the queue throughout the entire incident. Four steps in the development of incident progression curves are described. Step one is the processing of intranet incident reports. Step two is the filling in of incomplete incident reports. Step three is the nonlinear regression of incident progression curves. Step four is the merging of individual incident progression curves into one master curve. To illustrate this methodology, 5,514 accidents from Missouri freeways were analyzed. The results show that secondary accidents identified by dynamic versus static thresholds can differ by more than 30%.

Setting the rules of the game: The choice of electoral systems in advanced democracies

The origins of electoral systems have received scant attention in the literature. Looking at the history of electoral rules in the advanced world in the last century, this paper shows that the existing wide variation in electoral rules across nations can be traced to the strategic decisions that the current ruling parties, anticipating the coordinating consequences of different electoral regimes, make to maximize their representation according to the following conditions. On the one hand, as long as the electoral arena does not change substantially and the current electoral regime serves the ruling parties well, the latter have no incentives to modify the electoral regime. On the other hand, as soon as the electoral arena changes (due to the entry of new voters or a change in their preferences), the ruling parties will entertain changing the electoral system, depending on two main conditions: the emergence of new parties and the coordinating capacities of the old ruling parties. Accordingly, if the new parties are strong, the old parties shift from plurality/majority rules to proportional representation (PR) only if the latter are locked into a 'non-Duvergerian' equilibrium; i.e. if no old party enjoys a dominant position (the case of most small European states)--conversely, they do not if a Duvergerian equilibrium exists (the case of Great Britain). Similarly, whenever the new entrants are weak, a non-PR system is maintained, regardless of the structure of the old party system (the case of the USA). The paper discusses as well the role of trade and ethnic and religious heterogeneity in the adoption of PR rules.

On the origins of electoral systems and political parties. The role of elections in multi-member districts

The old, understudied electoral system composed of multi-member districts, open ballot and plurality rule is presented as the most remote scene of the origin of both political parties and new electoral systems. A survey of the uses of this set of electoral rules in different parts of the world during remote and recent periods shows its wide spread. A model of voting by this electoral system demonstrates that, while it can produce varied and pluralistic representation, it also provides incentives to form factional or partisan candidacies. Famous negative reactions to the emergence of factions and political parties during the 18th and 19th centuries are reinterpreted in this context. Many electoral rules and procedures invented since the second half of the 19th century, including the Australian ballot, single-member districts, limited and cumulative ballots, and proportional representation rules, derived from the search to reduce the effects of the originating multi-member district system in favor of a single party sweep. The general relations between political parties and electoral systems are restated to account for the foundational stage here discussed.

Quantum nonlocality in two three-level systems

Recently a new Bell inequality has been introduced by Collins et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 040404 (2002)], which is strongly resistant to noise for maximally entangled states of two d-dimensional quantum systems. We prove that a larger violation, or equivalently a stronger resistance to noise, is found for a nonmaximally entangled state. It is shown that the resistance to noise is not a good measure of nonlocality and we introduce some other possible measures. The nonmaximally entangled state turns out to be more robust also for these alternative measures. From these results it follows that two von Neumann measurements per party may be not optimal for detecting nonlocality. For d=3,4, we point out some connections between this inequality and distillability. Indeed, we demonstrate that any state violating it, with the optimal von Neumann settings, is distillable.

A survey of transposable element classification systems--a call for a fundamental update to meet the challenge of their diversity and complexity.

The increase of publicly available sequencing data has allowed for rapid progress in our understanding of genome composition. As new information becomes available we should constantly be updating and reanalyzing existing and newly acquired data. In this report we focus on transposable elements (TEs) which make up a significant portion of nearly all sequenced genomes. Our ability to accurately identify and classify these sequences is critical to understanding their impact on host genomes. At the same time, as we demonstrate in this report, problems with existing classification schemes have led to significant misunderstandings of the evolution of both TE sequences and their host genomes. In a pioneering publication Finnegan (1989) proposed classifying all TE sequences into two classes based on transposition mechanisms and structural features: the retrotransposons (class I) and the DNA transposons (class II). We have retraced how ideas regarding TE classification and annotation in both prokaryotic and eukaryotic scientific communities have changed over time. This has led us to observe that: (1) a number of TEs have convergent structural features and/or transposition mechanisms that have led to misleading conclusions regarding their classification, (2) the evolution of TEs is similar to that of viruses by having several unrelated origins, (3) there might be at least 8 classes and 12 orders of TEs including 10 novel orders. In an effort to address these classification issues we propose: (1) the outline of a universal TE classification, (2) a set of methods and classification rules that could be used by all scientific communities involved in the study of TEs, and (3) a 5-year schedule for the establishment of an International Committee for Taxonomy of Transposable Elements (ICTTE).