Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

Simulation of soybean growth and yield under northeastern Amazon climatic conditions

The objective of this work was to parameterize, calibrate, and validate a new version of the soybean growth and yield model developed by Sinclair, under natural field conditions in northeastern Amazon. The meteorological data and the values of soybean growth and leaf area were obtained from an agrometeorological experiment carried out in Paragominas, PA, Brazil, from 2006 to 2009. The climatic conditions during the experiment were very distinct, with a slight reduction in rainfall in 2007, due to the El Niño phenomenon. There was a reduction in the leaf area index (LAI) and in biomass production during this year, which was reproduced by the model. The simulation of the LAI had root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.55 to 0.82 m² m-2, from 2006 to 2009. The simulation of soybean yield for independent data showed a RMSE of 198 kg ha-1, i.e., an overestimation of 3%. The model was calibrated and validated for Amazonian climatic conditions, and can contribute positively to the improvement of the simulations of the impacts of land use change in the Amazon region. The modified version of the Sinclair model is able to adequately simulate leaf area formation, total biomass, and soybean yield, under northeastern Amazon climatic conditions.

Simulation of soybean growth and yield under northeastern Amazon climatic conditions

O objetivo deste trabalho foi parametrizar, calibrar e validar uma nova versão do modelo de crescimento e de produtividade da soja desenvolvido por Sinclair, em condições naturais de campo no nordeste da Amazônia. Os dados meteorológicos e os valores de crescimento e de área foliar da soja foram obtidos em um experimento agrometeorológico realizado em Paragominas, PA, de 2006 a 2009. As condições climáticas durante o experimento foram muito distintas, com uma ligeira redução na precipitação em 2007, em virtude do fenômeno El Niño. Houve redução no índice de área foliar (IAF) e na produção de biomassa neste ano, a qual foi reproduzida pelo modelo. A simulação do IAF apresentou raiz do erro quadrado médio (REQM) de 0,55 a 0,82 m2 m‑2, de 2006 a 2009. A simulação da produtividade da soja para os dados independentes apresentou um REQM de 198 kg ha‑1, ou seja, uma superestimativa de 3%. O modelo encontra-se calibrado e validado para as condições climáticas da Amazônia e pode contribuir positivamente para a melhoria das simulações dos impactos da mudança de uso da terra na região amazônica. A versão modificada do modelo de Sinclair simula adequadamente a formação de área foliar, a biomassa total e a produtividade da soja, nas condições climáticas do nordeste da Amazônia.

Radial variation of anatomical features, wood density and decay resistance in teak (Tectona grandis) from two qualities of growing sites and two climatic regions of Costa Rica

The objective of this study was to show the radial variation of some anatomic characteristics, wood density and natural durability of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) growing in Costa Rica. Samples of trees 13 years old were obtained from two growing sites (high and low growing) of plantations established in a humid tropical climate (CHT) and dry tropical climate (CST). The variables measured of the fibers as well as for the rays were not affected by the climate or the type of growing site, except for the length of the fibers. The fibers of teak wood from the best growing site were significantly larger. Vessels were found with a greater frequency for the CST but mostly solitary in comparison with the CBT. Average density, maximum density and the variation within the ring presented a light higher magnitude for the CST. The quality of the growing site did not affect these variables. The resistance of fungus attack was similar in the area of heartwood near the pith compared to the heartwood near the sapwood for all the conditions evaluated. Nevertheless, it was observed in some trees a similar resistance of fungus attack for areas of sapwood compared to similar areas of heartwood.

Can the Insulin Sensitivity Index (ISI) in Association with Insulin-like Growth Factor Binding Protein-1 Identify Insulin Resistance Early in Overweight Children?

Association between insulin resistance (IR) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been reported. This prompted us to evaluate the power of the insulin sensitivity index (ISI) in association with IGFBP-1 to identify IR early in obese children/adolescents. OGTT was performed in 34 obese/overweight children/adolescents. Glucose, insulin and IGFBP-1 were measured in serum samples and ISI was calculated. Considering the presence of three or more risk factors for IR as a criterion for IR, ISI <4.6 showed 87.5% sensitivity and 94.5% specificity in diagnosing IR. IGFBP-1 was lower in the group with ISI <4.6 (p <0.01). In this group, three patients had higher than expected IGFBP-1, suggesting hepatic IR, while three patients with ISI >4.6 showed very low IGFBP-1 levels. Conclusion: ISI <4.6 is a good indicator of early peripheral IR and, associated with IGFBP-1, can identify increased risk of hepatic IR. Low IGFBP-1 levels among non-IR children may indicate increased portal insulin levels.

Genotype and environment effects on dynamics of harvest index during grain filling in sorghum

An approach based on a linear rate of increase in harvest index (141) with time after anthesis has been used as a simple means-to predict grain growth and yield in many crop simulation models. When applied to diverse situations, however, this approach has been found to introduce significant error in grain yield predictions. Accordingly, this study was undertaken to examine the stability of the HI approach for yield prediction in sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]. Four field experiments were conducted under nonlimiting water. and N conditions. The experiments were sown at times that ensured a broad range in temperature and radiation conditions. Treatments consisted of two population densities and three genotypes varying in maturity. Frequent sequential harvests were used to monitor crop growth, yield, and the dynamics of 111. Experiments varied greatly in yield and final HI. There was also a tendency for lower HI with later maturity. Harvest index dynamics also varied among experiments and, to a lesser extent, among treatments within experiments. The variation was associated mostly with the linear rate of increase in HI and timing of cessation of that increase. The average rate of HI increase was 0.0198 d(-1), but this was reduced considerably (0.0147) in one experiment that matured in cool conditions. The variations found in IN dynamics could be largely explained by differences in assimilation during grain filling and remobilization of preanthesis assimilate. We concluded that this level of variation in HI dynamics limited the general applicability of the HI approach in yield prediction and suggested a potential alternative for testing.

Effects of growth reducer and nitrogen fertilization on morphological variables, SPAD index, interception of radiation and productivity of wheat

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of growth reducer and nitrogen fertilization on morphological variables, SPAD index, radiation interception, and grain yield of three cultivars of wheat. The experimental design was a randomized block in factorial scheme 3x5x2, with three cultivars (Mestre, Iguaçú and Itaipú), five nitrogen doses (0, 40, 80, 120, 160 Kg ha-1), and application or no application of a growth reducer, with three replications. The following characteristics were evaluated: plant height, SPAD index, leaf area index (LAI), Global Radiation Interception (GRI) and grain yield. The Tukey test (p < 0.05) was used for the comparison between the means of cultivar and growth reducer factors, and for a regression analysis to evaluate N levels. Increasing the dose of nitrogen promotes an increase in LAI of plants of wheat crops differently among cultivars, which leads to a greater degree of global radiation interception. At doses higher or equal to 120 Kg ha-1 of nitrogen, there are significant differences in grain yield between treatments with and without the application of the growth reducer. The significant interaction between growth reducer and nitrogen dose, showed that applications of growth reducer increase the GRI at doses above and below 80 Kg ha-1 of nitrogen. Nitrogen rates of 138 and 109 Kg ha-1 are responsible for maximum grain yields of wheat, which is 4235 and 3787 Kg ha-1 with and without the use of growth reducer, respectively.

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions

The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

Recent droughts and the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation in Iberia; a spatiotemporal analysis based on vegetation temperature condition Index (VTCI)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Growth of semi-polar GaN on high index silicon (11h) substrates by metal organic vapor phase epitaxy

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Naturwiss., Diss., 2014

Simulation of growth and development of irrigated cowpea in Piauí State by CROPGRO model

The objective of this work was to adapt the CROPGRO model, which is part of the DSSAT system, for simulating the cowpea (Vigna unguiculata) growth and development under soil and climate conditions of the Baixo Parnaíba region, Piauí State, Brazil. In the CROPGRO, only input parameters that define crop species, cultivars, and ecotype were changed in order to characterize the cowpea crop. Soil and climate files were created for the considered site. Field experiments without water deficit were used to calibrate the model. In these experiments, dry matter (DM), leaf area index (LAI), yield components and grain yield of cowpea (cv. BR 14 Mulato) were evaluated. The results showed good fit for DM and LAI estimates. The medium values of R² and medium absolute error (MAE) were, respectively, 0.95 and 264.9 kg ha-1 for DM, and 0.97 and 0.22 for LAI. The difference between observed and simulated values of plant phenology varied from 0 to 3 days. The model also presented good performance for yield components simulation, excluding 100-grain weight, for which the error ranged from 20.9% to 34.3%. Considering the medium values of crop yield in two years, the model presented an error from 5.6%.

Spatiotemporal variability in radial growth of trees in the Central Pyrenees: climatic and site influences.

To understand how tree growth has responded to recent climate warming, an understanding of the tree-climate-site complex is necessary. To achieve this, radial growth variability among 204 trees established before 1850 was studied in relation to both climatic and site factors. Seventeen forest stands were sampled in the Spanish Central Pyrenees. Three species were studied: Pinus uncinata, Abies alba, and Pinus sylvestris. For each tree, a ring-width residual chronology was built. All trees cross-dated well, indicating a common influence of the regional climate. For the 1952-1993 period, the radial growth of all species, especially P. uncinata, was positively correlated with warm Novembers during the year before ring formation and warm Mays of the year the annual ring formed. Differences in species-stand elevation modulated the growth-climate associations. Radial growth in P. uncinata at high elevation sites was reduced when May temperatures were colder and May precipitation more abundant. In the 20th century, two contrasting periods in radial growth were observed: one (1900-1949) with low frequency of narrow and wide rings, low mean annual sensitivity, and low common growth variation; and another (1950-1994) with the reverse characteristics. The increased variability in radial growth since the 1950s was observed for all species and sites, which suggests a climatic cause. The low shared variance among tree chronologies during the first half of the 20th century may result from a"relaxation" of the elevation gradient, allowing local site conditions to dominate macroclimatic influence. These temporal trends may be related to the recently reported increase of climatic variability and warmer conditions. This study emphasizes the need to carefully assess the relationships between radial growth and site conditions along ecological gradients to improve dendroclimatic reconstructions.

The effects of depleted, current and elevated growth [CO2] in wheat are modulated by water availability

Drought is the main constraint on wheat yield in Mediterranean conditions. The photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence and plant growth parameters of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum, L. var. durum) were compared at three [CO2] (i.e., depleted 260 ppm, current 400ppm and elevated 700 ppm) in plants subjected to twowater regimes (i.e.,well-wateredWW, and mildwater stress by drought orwater deficit WS), during pre-anthesis, post-anthesis and the end of grain filling. We showed that [CO2] effects on plants are modulated by water availability. Plants at depleted [CO2] showed photosynthetic acclimation (i.e., up-regulation) and reduced plant biomass and Harvest Index, but depleted [CO2] combined with WS has a more negative impact on plants with decreases in C assimilation and biomass. Plants at elevated [CO2] had decreased plant growth and photosynthesis in response to a down-regulation mechanism resulting from a decrease in Rubisco and N content, but plants exposed to a combination of elevated [CO2] and WS were the most negatively affected (e.g., on plant biomass).