Optimal design for model discrimination and parameter estimation for itraconazole population pharmacokinetics in cystic fibrosis patients

Optimal sampling times are found for a study in which one of the primary purposes is to develop a model of the pharmacokinetics of itraconazole in patients with cystic fibrosis for both capsule and solution doses. The optimal design is expected to produce reliable estimates of population parameters for two different structural PK models. Data collected at these sampling times are also expected to provide the researchers with sufficient information to reasonably discriminate between the two competing structural models.

Activity-based life cycle costing model for cost estimation and monitoring – Case: manned and autonomous dry bulk carrier

Recent developments in automation, robotics and artificial intelligence have given a push to a wider usage of these technologies in recent years, and nowadays, driverless transport systems are already state-of-the-art on certain legs of transportation. This has given a push for the maritime industry to join the advancement. The case organisation, AAWA initiative, is a joint industry-academia research consortium with the objective of developing readiness for the first commercial autonomous solutions, exploiting state-of-the-art autonomous and remote technology. The initiative develops both autonomous and remote operation technology for navigation, machinery, and all on-board operating systems. The aim of this study is to develop a model with which to estimate and forecast the operational costs, and thus enable comparisons between manned and autonomous cargo vessels. The building process of the model is also described and discussed. Furthermore, the model’s aim is to track and identify the critical success factors of the chosen ship design, and to enable monitoring and tracking of the incurred operational costs as the life cycle of the vessel progresses. The study adopts the constructive research approach, as the aim is to develop a construct to meet the needs of a case organisation. Data has been collected through discussions and meeting with consortium members and researchers, as well as through written and internal communications material. The model itself is built using activity-based life cycle costing, which enables both realistic cost estimation and forecasting, as well as the identification of critical success factors due to the process-orientation adopted from activity-based costing and the statistical nature of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. As the model was able to meet the multiple aims set for it, and the case organisation was satisfied with it, it could be argued that activity-based life cycle costing is the method with which to conduct cost estimation and forecasting in the case of autonomous cargo vessels. The model was able to perform the cost analysis and forecasting, as well as to trace the critical success factors. Later on, it also enabled, albeit hypothetically, monitoring and tracking of the incurred costs. By collecting costs this way, it was argued that the activity-based LCC model is able facilitate learning from and continuous improvement of the autonomous vessel. As with the building process of the model, an individual approach was chosen, while still using the implementation and model building steps presented in existing literature. This was due to two factors: the nature of the model and – perhaps even more importantly – the nature of the case organisation. Furthermore, the loosely organised network structure means that knowing the case organisation and its aims is of great importance when conducting a constructive research.

DYNAMIC MODEL BASED STATE ESTIMATION IN A HEAVY DUTY DIESEL AFTERTREATMENT SYSTEM FOR ONBOARD DIAGNOSTICS AND CONTROLS

Estimating un-measurable states is an important component for onboard diagnostics (OBD) and control strategy development in diesel exhaust aftertreatment systems. This research focuses on the development of an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) based state estimator for two of the main components in a diesel engine aftertreatment system: the Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC) and the Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) catalyst. One of the key areas of interest is the performance of these estimators when the catalyzed particulate filter (CPF) is being actively regenerated. In this study, model reduction techniques were developed and used to develop reduced order models from the 1D models used to simulate the DOC and SCR. As a result of order reduction, the number of states in the estimator is reduced from 12 to 1 per element for the DOC and 12 to 2 per element for the SCR. The reduced order models were simulated on the experimental data and compared to the high fidelity model and the experimental data. The results show that the effect of eliminating the heat transfer and mass transfer coefficients are not significant on the performance of the reduced order models. This is shown by an insignificant change in the kinetic parameters between the reduced order and 1D model for simulating the experimental data. An EKF based estimator to estimate the internal states of the DOC and SCR was developed. The DOC and SCR estimators were simulated on the experimental data to show that the estimator provides improved estimation of states compared to a reduced order model. The results showed that using the temperature measurement at the DOC outlet improved the estimates of the CO , NO , NO2 and HC concentrations from the DOC. The SCR estimator was used to evaluate the effect of NH3 and NOX sensors on state estimation quality. Three sensor combinations of NOX sensor only, NH3 sensor only and both NOX and NH3 sensors were evaluated. The NOX only configuration had the worst performance, the NH3 sensor only configuration was in the middle and both the NOX and NH3 sensor combination provided the best performance.

A novel disposable electrochemical microcell: construction and characterization

An alternative technique for the fabrication of disposable electrochemical microcells containing working, reference and auxiliary electrodes on a single device is reported. The procedure is based on thermal-transfer of toner masks onto CD-R (recordable compact discs) gold surfaces to define the layout of the electrodes (contour). In a subsequent step, the layout is manually painted with a permanent marker pen. The unprotected gold surface is conveniently etched (chemical corrosion) and the ink is then easily removed with ethanol, generating gold surfaces without contamination. The final and reproducible area of the electrodes is defined by heat transference of a second toner mask. Silver epoxy is deposited on one of the gold bands which is the satisfactorily used as reference electrode. These microcells were electrochemically characterized by cyclic, linear, and square wave voltammetry, and several electroactive species were used as model systems. The area reproducibility of the electrodes for different microcells was studied and a relative standard deviation better than 1,0% (n = 10) was obtained. Disposable electrochemical microcells were successfully used in analysis of liquid samples with volumes lower than 200 µL and good stability and reproducibility (RSD less than 2.0%) were achieved. These microcells were also evaluated for quantification of paracetamol and dipyrone in pharmaceutical formulations.

Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation of default events in a CDX and estimation of the spread

The portfolio generating the iTraxx EUR index is modeled by coupled Markov chains. Each of the industries of the portfolio evolves according to its own Markov transition matrix. Using a variant of the method of moments, the model parameters are estimated from a data set of Standard and Poor's. Swap spreads are evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations. Along with an actuarially fair spread, at least squares spread is considered.

Polyglutamine diseases (PolyQ): construction and characterization of yeast models

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Genética Molecular e Biomedicina, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Construction and analysis of a new conditional ferritin H knockout mouse strain/

Résumé Le fer joue un rôle important dans la plupart des fonctions biologiques mais sa présence excessive provoque la production de molécules réactives d'oxygène (ROS) qui peuvent contribuer à diverses maladies. La protéine de stockage du fer, la ferritine H, capte l'excès en fer et le stocke sous forme non-toxique, ce qui empêche des dommages potentiels. La délétion de la ferritine H dans des souris knock-out a été essayée antérieurement, mais ces souris mouraient au stade précoce du développement embryonnaire. Pour étudier l'importance du fer, et en particulier son stockage dans la ferritine, et pour pouvoir mieux comprendre les fonctions de la ferritine H, nous avons créé un modèle de souris knock-out conditionnelles de la ferritine H, selon le système classique de Cre-LoxP. Le premier exon et la région du promoteur du gène de la ferritine H ont été entourés de sites loxP. La mortalité embryonnaire provoquée par la délétion constitutive du gène de la ferritine H a été confirmée en croisant nos souris avec des souris exprimant nestin-Cre1. En croisant nos souris avec des souris transgéniques Mx-Cre, nous avons observé que l'induction de Cre par injection de polyI-polyC provoque la délétion presque complète de la ferritine H dans le foie (> 99%) et la rate (> 88%). Ces tissus ont également perdu une grande partie de leur réserve de fer. Cette observation apporte pour la première fois la preuve in vivo que la ferritine H est indispensable pour le stockage du fer, que les fonctions de la ferritine H et de la ferritine L ne sont pas équivalentes, et que la ferritine L ne peut pas assumer seule la fonction de stockage du fer. Dans le foie des souris knock-out, l'expression de l'ARN messager de l'hepcidine a été induite après 10 jours. En même temps, l'expression de l'ARN messager des gènes codant pour des protéines de l'absorption de fer (DMT1, ferroportin, Dcytb1 et hephaestin) a été réprimée mais dans le duodénum seulement. L'expression d'hepcidine est inversément corrélée avec celle des gènes liés à l'absorption de fer. Cette observation corrobore des études antérieures. Mais, en plus, elle montre également que cette répression se produit seulement dans l'intestin. Nous pouvons ainsi tirer la conclusion suivante : ou bien l'hepcidine a un récepteur spécifique dans le duodénum ou bien les gènes liés à l'absorption de fer dans le duodénum ont un facteur spécifique de transcription sensible à l'hepcidine. Aucune répression de DMT1 et de ferroportin n'a été observée dans les macrophages de la rate après l'induction d'hepcidine. La délétion de ferritine H a entraîné une augmentation du taux de mortalité des cellules hépatiques, ainsi que des altérations dans l'architecture normale du tissu de la rate. Vu par l'immunohistologie, le nombre de lymphocytes B et T était réduit dans la rate, tendant à démontrer que la ferritine H et l'homéostase du fer jouent un rôle dans l'immunité. En conclusion, le modèle de souris knock-out conditionnelles de la ferritine H nous fournit un outil précieux pour l'étude in vivo du rôle joué par la ferritine dans l'homéostase du fer, dans les dommages créés par les ROS, ainsi que dans l'apoptose et l'immunité. Summary Iron plays an important role in most biological functions. However, excess of iron results in production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) which could substantially contribute to pathology of various diseases. Ferritin H scavenges excess of iron and stores it in non-toxic form and potentially prevents the damage. Fenitin H targeting in mice has been attempted before, however, straight knockout was lethal in early embryonic stage. To study the role of iron and its storage protein ferritin and to further elucidate ferritin H functions, we aimed at creating a conditional ferritin H knockout mouse model by classical Cre-LoxP system. First exon along with promoter region of the ferritin H gene was foxed. Embryonic lethality of the constitutive ferritin H deletion was confirmed by crossing the foxed mice with mice expressing nestin Cre-1 as transgene. Almost complete deletion was observed in liver (> 99%) and spleen (>88%) upon induction of Cre by injecting polyI-polyC in Fth Lox/Lox; MxCre mice. These tissues also lost substantial fraction of their iron stores. This provides first in vivo evidence that ferritin H is required for iron storage, ferritin H and L functions are not redundant and that ferritin L cannot perform iron storage function alone. Hepcidin mRNA expression was induced after 10 days in the livers of deleted mice and, simultaneously, mRNA expression of iron absorption related genes (DMT 1, ferroportin, Dcytb1 and hephaestin) was repressed in duodenum only. Hepcidin expression is inversely correlated with that of duodenal iron absorption related genes. This is in agreement with previous studies. However, we also show that this repression happens only in intestine. This leads to the conclusion that either hepcidin has a specific receptor in duodenum or the iron absorption related genes have duodenum specific transcription factor that is responsive to hepcidin. No repression of DMT1 and ferroportin was observed in spleen macrophages upon hepcidin induction. Ferritin H deletion showed increased cell death in liver and disruption of normal architecture of spleen. B lymphocytes were reduced in spleen on immunohistology which point towards a role of ferritin H and iron homeostasis in immunity. In conclusion, ferritin H conditional knockout mouse model provides us with an invaluable tool to study the in vivo role of ferritin H in iron homeostasis, ROS mediated damage, apoptosis and immunity.

Combining digital elevation model analysis and run-out modeling to characterize hazard posed by a potentially unstable rock slope at Turtle Mountain, Alberta, Canada

Turtle Mountain in Alberta, Canada has become an important field laboratory for testing different techniques related to the characterization and monitoring of large slope mass movements as the stability of large portions of the eastern face of the mountain is still questionable. In order to better quantify the volumes potentially unstable and the most probable failure mechanisms and potential consequences, structural analysis and runout modeling were preformed. The structural features of the eastern face were investigated using a high resolution digital elevation model (HRDEM). According to displacement datasets and structural observations, potential failure mechanisms affecting different portions of the mountain have been assessed. The volumes of the different potentially unstable blocks have been calculated using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) method. Based on the volume estimation, two and three dimensional dynamic runout analyses have been performed. Calibration of this analysis is based on the experience from the adjacent Frank Slide and other similar rock avalanches. The results will be used to improve the contingency plans within the hazard area.

Using tools to help cost estimating and pricing: examination of costing model's and cost breakdown's workability and their capability to cooperative work

Tämä diplomityö käsittelee työkaluja, jotka on suunniteltu kustannusten ennakointiin ja hinnan asetantaan. Aluksi on käyty läpi perinteisen ja toimintoperusteisen kustannuslaskennan perusteita. Näiden menetelmien välisiä eroja on tarkasteltu ja toimintoperusteisen kustannuslaskennan paremmin sopivuus nykypäivän yrityksille on perusteltu. Toisena käsitellään hinnoittelu. Hinnan merkitys, hinnoittelumenetelmät ja päätös lopullisesta hinnasta on käyty läpi. Hinnoittelun jälkeen esitellään kustannusjärjestelmät ja kustannusten arviointi. Nämä asiat todistavat, että tarkat kustannusarviot ovat elintärkeitä yritykselle. Tuotteen kustannusarviointi, hinnan asetanta ja tarjoaminen ovat erittäin merkityksellisiä asioita ottaen huomioon koko projektin elinkaaren ja tulevat tuotot. Nykyään on yleistä käyttää työkaluja kustannusarvioinnissa ja joskus myös hinnoittelussa. Työkalujen luotettavuus on tiedettävä, ennenkuin työkalut otetaan käyttöön. Myös työkalujen käyttäjät täytyy perehdyttää hyvin. Muuten yritys todennäköisesti kohtaa odottamattomia ja epämiellyttäviä yllätyksiä.

Methods for construction and analysis of computational models in systems biology : applications to the modelling of the heat shock response and the self-assembly of intermediate filaments

Systems biology is a new, emerging and rapidly developing, multidisciplinary research field that aims to study biochemical and biological systems from a holistic perspective, with the goal of providing a comprehensive, system- level understanding of cellular behaviour. In this way, it addresses one of the greatest challenges faced by contemporary biology, which is to compre- hend the function of complex biological systems. Systems biology combines various methods that originate from scientific disciplines such as molecu- lar biology, chemistry, engineering sciences, mathematics, computer science and systems theory. Systems biology, unlike “traditional” biology, focuses on high-level concepts such as: network, component, robustness, efficiency, control, regulation, hierarchical design, synchronization, concurrency, and many others. The very terminology of systems biology is “foreign” to “tra- ditional” biology, marks its drastic shift in the research paradigm and it indicates close linkage of systems biology to computer science. One of the basic tools utilized in systems biology is the mathematical modelling of life processes tightly linked to experimental practice. The stud- ies contained in this thesis revolve around a number of challenges commonly encountered in the computational modelling in systems biology. The re- search comprises of the development and application of a broad range of methods originating in the fields of computer science and mathematics for construction and analysis of computational models in systems biology. In particular, the performed research is setup in the context of two biolog- ical phenomena chosen as modelling case studies: 1) the eukaryotic heat shock response and 2) the in vitro self-assembly of intermediate filaments, one of the main constituents of the cytoskeleton. The range of presented approaches spans from heuristic, through numerical and statistical to ana- lytical methods applied in the effort to formally describe and analyse the two biological processes. We notice however, that although applied to cer- tain case studies, the presented methods are not limited to them and can be utilized in the analysis of other biological mechanisms as well as com- plex systems in general. The full range of developed and applied modelling techniques as well as model analysis methodologies constitutes a rich mod- elling framework. Moreover, the presentation of the developed methods, their application to the two case studies and the discussions concerning their potentials and limitations point to the difficulties and challenges one encounters in computational modelling of biological systems. The problems of model identifiability, model comparison, model refinement, model inte- gration and extension, choice of the proper modelling framework and level of abstraction, or the choice of the proper scope of the model run through this thesis.

A simple model for the estimation of congenital malformation frequency in racially mixed populations

A simple model is proposed, using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate malformation frequencies in racial groups based on data obtained from hospital services. This model uses the proportions of racial admixture, and the observed malformation frequency. It was applied to two defects: postaxial polydactyly and cleft lip, the frequencies of which are recognizedly heterogeneous among racial groups. The frequencies estimated in each racial group were those expected for these malformations, which proves the applicability of the method.

Construcción y validación de un instrumento diagnóstico para la representación cognitiva de la Orientación Psicopedagógica en Galicia. 'Construction and validation of a diagnostic instrument for the cognitive representation of the Guidance in Galicia'.

Resumen tomado de la publicación. Con el apoyo económico del departamento MIDE de la UNED

Computer modelling and estimation of recruitment patterns of non-branching coral colonies at three sites in Wakatobi Marine Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia; implications for coral reef conservation

We have studied growth and estimated recruitment of massive coral colonies at three sites, Kaledupa, Hoga and Sampela, separated by about 1.5 km in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. There was significantly higher species richness (P<0.05), coral cover (P<0.05) and rugosity (P<0.01) at Kaledupa than at Sampela. A model for coral reef growth has been developed based on a rational polynomial function, where dx/dt is an index of coral growth with time; W is the variable (for example, coral weight, coral length or coral area), up to the power of n in the numerator and m in the denominator; a1……an and b1…bm are constants. The values for n and m represent the degree of the polynomial, and can relate to the morphology of the coral. The model was used to simulate typical coral growth curves, and tested using published data obtained by weighing coral colonies underwater in reefs on the south-west coast of Curaçao [‘Neth. J. Sea Res. 10 (1976) 285’]. The model proved an accurate fit to the data, and parameters were obtained for a number of coral species. Surface area data was obtained on over 1200 massive corals at three different sites in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. The year of an individual's recruitment was calculated from knowledge of the growth rate modified by application of the rational polynomial model. The estimated pattern of recruitment was variable, with little numbers of massive corals settling and growing before 1950 at the heavily used site, Sampela, relative to the reef site with little or no human use, Kaledupa, and the intermediate site, Hoga. There was a significantly greater sedimentation rate at Sampela than at either Kaledupa (P<0.0001) or Hoga (P<0.0005). The relative mean abundance of fish families present at the reef crests at the three sites, determined using digital video photography, did not correlate with sedimentation rates, underwater visibility or lack of large non-branching coral colonies. Radial growth rates of three genera of non-branching corals were significantly lower at Sampela than at Kaledupa or at Hoga, and there was a high correlation (r=0.89) between radial growth rates and underwater visibility. Porites spp. was the most abundant coral over all the sites and at all depths followed by Favites (P<0.04) and Favia spp. (P<0.03). Colony ages of Porites corals were significantly lower at the 5 m reef flat on the Sampela reef than at the same depth on both other reefs (P<0.005). At Sampela, only 2.8% of corals on the 5 m reef crest are of a size to have survived from before 1950. The Scleractinian coral community of Sampela is severely impacted by depositing sediments which can lead to the suffocation of corals, whilst also decreasing light penetration resulting in decreased growth and calcification rates. The net loss of material from Sampela, if not checked, could result in the loss of this protective barrier which would be to the detriment of the sublittoral sand flats and hence the Sampela village.