Detecting drift from event streams of unpredictable business processes

Existing business process drift detection methods do not work with event streams. As such, they are designed to detect inter-trace drifts only, i.e. drifts that occur between complete process executions (traces), as recorded in event logs. However, process drift may also occur during the execution of a process, and may impact ongoing executions. Existing methods either do not detect such intra-trace drifts, or detect them with a long delay. Moreover, they do not perform well with unpredictable processes, i.e. processes whose logs exhibit a high number of distinct executions to the total number of executions. We address these two issues by proposing a fully automated and scalable method for online detection of process drift from event streams. We perform statistical tests over distributions of behavioral relations between events, as observed in two adjacent windows of adaptive size, sliding along with the stream. An extensive evaluation on synthetic and real-life logs shows that our method is fast and accurate in the detection of typical change patterns, and performs significantly better than the state of the art.

Collective Network Capability in International Project Business Networks - A Case Study of the Business Network for the Ashanti Electrification Project in Ghana

Despite thirty years of research in interorganizational networks and project business within the industrial networks approach and relationship marketing, collective capability of networks of business and other interorganizational actors has not been explicitly conceptualized and studied within the above-named approaches. This is despite the fact that the two approaches maintain that networking is one of the core strategies for the long-term survival of market actors. Recently, many scholars within the above-named approaches have emphasized that the survival of market actors is based on the strength of their networks and that inter-firm competition is being replaced by inter-network competition. Furthermore, project business is characterized by the building of goal-oriented, temporary networks whose aims, structures, and procedures are clarified and that are governed by processes of interaction as well as recurrent contracts. This study develops frameworks for studying and analysing collective network capability, i.e. collective capability created for the network of firms. The concept is first justified and positioned within the industrial networks, project business, and relationship marketing schools. An eclectic source of conceptual input is based on four major approaches to interorganizational business relationships. The study uses qualitative research and analysis, and the case report analyses the empirical phenomenon using a large number of qualitative techniques: tables, diagrams, network models, matrices etc. The study shows the high level of uniqueness and complexity of international project business. While perceived psychic distance between the parties may be small due to previous project experiences and the benefit of existing relationships, a varied number of critical events develop due to the economic and local context of the recipient country as well as the coordination demands of the large number of involved actors. The study shows that the successful creation of collective network capability led to the success of the network for the studied project. The processes and structures for creating collective network capability are encapsulated in a model of governance factors for interorganizational networks. The theoretical and management implications are summarized in seven propositions. The core implication is that project business success in unique and complex environments is achieved by accessing the capabilities of a network of actors, and project management in such environments should be built on both contractual and cooperative procedures with local recipient country parties.

Opportunity Exploration and Exploitation in International New Ventures: A Study of Relationships’ Involvement in Early Entrepreneurial and Internationalisation Events

International new ventures (INVs) are firms that engage very early after their foundation, if not immediately, in inter-national activities. INVs are a relatively recent phenomenon that deviates from earlier theories on international business. In order to develop our understanding of the emergence and early internationalisation of INVs three different research areas are built upon in the dissertation: International Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurship and Networks. Net-works have been identified as important for INVs. However, there is a lack of more profound studies regarding the way different types of relationships influence INVs. Few studies are concerned with exploration and exploitation of opportunities and research on the benefits and drawbacks of entrepreneurs’ relationships for the international opportunity recognition process has been called for. By taking a network approach to opportunity exploration and exploitation, the dissertation develops our under-standing of how entrepreneurs’ relationships are involved in exploring and exploiting opportunities during an INV’s early and critical entrepreneurial and internationalisation events. The critical events are studied during three phases: pre-founding, start-up and early internationalisation. Since internationalisation is present from the very beginning, the early internationalisation phase may be parallel to both the pre-founding and the start-up phase. The dissertation contributes to international entrepreneur-ship research in mainly two ways. First, by offering a deep insight into which opportunity exploration and exploitation activities entrepreneurs’ relationships are involved. Second, by adding to our understanding of what the relationships contribute to these activities, mainly in the sense of benefits gained through the relationships. Studying micro firms in real time in their early development towards INVs is considered a unique contribution of the study as it offers valuable insights into pre-founding, start-up, pre-internationalisation as well as early internationalisation. The study shows that in order to understand the development of INVs, it is beneficial to go back to times when there was no thought of starting the INV. By focusing on the entrepreneurs’ background and relationships a more complete picture of the INV is gained. Relationships created at former workplaces or during school time might be the ones that develop business opportunities and set off internationalisation. By focusing on the pre-founding phase, the study also contributes to entrepreneurship literature as this stage has often been neglected or assumed obvious in earlier research. This dissertation shows that an important and mostly lengthy pre-founding phase precedes the decision to start a f rm. In addition, the integration of entrepreneurs’ real experiences with existing theory to develop a continuum for the strength of relationships allows for contributions to network theory.

A design pattern for integration of business process management systems

A cross-domain workflow application may be constructed using a standard reference model such as the one by the Workflow Management Coalition (WfMC) [7] but the requirements for this type of application are inherently different from one organization to another. The existing models and systems built around them meet some but not all the requirements from all the organizations involved in a collaborative process. Furthermore the requirements change over time. This makes the applications difficult to develop and distribute. Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) based approaches such as the BPET (Business Process Execution Language) intend to provide a solution but fail to address the problems sufficiently, especially in the situations where the expectations and level of skills of the users (e.g. the participants of the processes) in different organisations are likely to be different. In this paper, we discuss a design pattern that provides a novel approach towards a solution. In the solution, business users can design the applications at a high level of abstraction: the use cases and user interactions; the designs are documented and used, together with the data and events captured later that represents the user interactions with the systems, to feed an intermediate component local to the users -the IFM (InterFace Mapper) -which bridges the gaps between the users and the systems. We discuss the main issues faced in the design and prototyping. The approach alleviates the need for re-programming with the APIs to any back-end service thus easing the development and distribution of the applications

A Longitudinal and Contextual Analysis of Media Representation of Business Ethics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an analysis of media representation of business ethics within 62 international newspapers to explore the longitudinal and contextual evolution of business ethics and associated terminology. Levels of coverage and contextual analysis of the content of the articles are used as surrogate measures of the penetration of business ethics concepts into society. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses a text mining application based on two samples of data: analysis of 62 national newspapers in 21 countries from 1990 to 2008; analysis of the content of two samples of articles containing the term business ethics (comprised of 100 newspaper articles spread over an 18-year period from a sample of US and UK newspapers). Findings – The paper demonstrates increased coverage of sustainability topics within the media over the last 18 years associated with events such as the Rio Summit. Whilst some peaks are associated with business ethics scandals, the overall coverage remains steady. There is little apparent use in the media of concepts such as corporate citizenship. The academic community and company ethical codes appear to adopt a wider definition of business ethics more akin to that associated with sustainability, in comparison with the focus taken by the media, especially in the USA. Coverage demonstrates clear regional bias and contextual analysis of the articles in the UK and USA also shows interesting parallels and divergences in the media representation of business ethics. Originality/value – A promising avenue to explore how the evolution of sustainability issues including business ethics can be tracked within a societal context.

Business continuity management at Banif: Defining and selecting recovery strategies

This project aims to delineate recovery strategies for a Portuguese Bank, as a way to increase its preparedness towards unexpected disruptive events, thus avoiding an operational crisis escalation. For this purpose, Business Continuity material was studied, a risk assessment performed, a business impact analysis executed and new strategic framework for selecting strategies adopted. In the end, a set of recovery strategies were chosen that better represented the Bank’s appetite for risk, and recommendations given for future improvements.

How could marketing automation impact the business performance of Comexposium?

Comexposium continues to exhibit strong growth through global acquisition of key events. However, the company identified the need to increase the renewal rate of its exhibitors. In order to do so, Comexposium determined marketing automation software could have enormous value. However, the company currently does not have the appropriate data to determine to specific returns the software could provide. Thus, this report focused on assessing the impact of marketing automation on the business performance of a B2B enterprise and the best methods to implement and measure it. The main findings were that the software could be of immense value to Comexposium, if the company is ready to invest in internal resources and take the time to adapt to the changes the tool will incur.

Finest business plan

Field lab: Entrepreneurial and business ventures

Political Reform: unfinished business in Brazil after Lula?

A year away from leaving the presidency, this article analyses Lula government in light of the many corruption scandals that erupted afterwards. These events showed that despite the almost unanimous conclusion of its balance sheet, Lula government leaves a big task ahead: the political reform. Priority of the Workers’ Party during the years 1980 and 1990, and subject of many academic studies, this issue has been abandoned in the 2000s, with the accession to power of Lula Da Silva. This paper evaluates the state-of-the-art on this matter and defends the need for further consideration in light of current events, and in a broader theoretical perspective than the institutional engineering one that prevailed earlier. 

Benchmarking or business opportunity: Using milk recording data to expose your clients' weaknesses

Routine milk recording data, often covering many years, are available for approximately half the dairy herds of England and Wales. In addition to milk yield and quality, these data include production events that can be used to derive objective Key Performance Indicators (KPI) describing a herd's fertility and production. Recent developments in information systems give veterinarians and other technical advisers access to these KPIs on-line. In addition to reviewing individual herd performance, advisers can establish local benchmark groups to demonstrate the relative performance of similar herds in the vicinity. The use of existing milk recording data places no additional demands on farmer's time or resources. These developments could also readily be exploited by universities to introduce veterinary undergraduates to the realities of commercial dairy production.

Closed-loop feedback computation model of dynamical reputation based on the local trust evaluation in business-to-consumer e-commerce

Trust and reputation are important factors that influence the success of both traditional transactions in physical social networks and modern e-commerce in virtual Internet environments. It is difficult to define the concept of trust and quantify it because trust has both subjective and objective characteristics at the same time. A well-reported issue with reputation management system in business-to-consumer (BtoC) e-commerce is the “all good reputation” problem. In order to deal with the confusion, a new computational model of reputation is proposed in this paper. The ratings of each customer are set as basic trust score events. In addition, the time series of massive ratings are aggregated to formulate the sellers’ local temporal trust scores by Beta distribution. A logical model of trust and reputation is established based on the analysis of the dynamical relationship between trust and reputation. As for single goods with repeat transactions, an iterative mathematical model of trust and reputation is established with a closed-loop feedback mechanism. Numerical experiments on repeated transactions recorded over a period of 24 months are performed. The experimental results show that the proposed method plays guiding roles for both theoretical research into trust and reputation and the practical design of reputation systems in BtoC e-commerce.

Crisis communication: organization's reactions to unexpected events

A reputação é considerada o ativo mais importante das empresas. Ela permite o estabelecimento de relações comerciais e garante um bom funcionamento da organização. Quando um evento inesperado surge, a reputação pode ser ameaçada. Os gerentes, líderes da organização, têm então que demonstrar reatividade e capacidade em responder as necessidades dos stakeholders, e capacidade de detectar e consertar as falhas dentro da organização através de um processo de aprendizagem, para evitar conseqüências negativas que poderiam danificar a reputação e impactar o desenvolvimento operacional da empresa. Através da comunicação de crise, observamos que depois da queda do avião AF 447, a companhia Air France adotou diferentes posturas adaptadas ao pedido dos stakeholders e ao grau de ameaça sofrido. Logo depois do acidente, a empresa decidiu adotar a estratégia do reconhecimento, assumindo uma responsabilidade simbólica e comunicando prioritariamente para as famílias das vitimas e para a mídia. Nas seguintes semanas ela utilizou a estratégia do silêncio que consiste em não comunicar diretamente a mídia. Finalmente, ela usou a estratégia do “bode expiatório” quando ela foi sujeita a ataques diretos. As reações da empresa somadas ao avanço das investigações judiciais revelaram falhas organizacionais “históricas” dentro da própria empresa, como por exemplo, a falta de comunicação entre pilotos e gerentes ou uma falha de sensibilidade técnica e operacional da parte dos gerentes. Apesar de problemas interno e externo, a Air France demonstrou que uma comunicação de crise bem gerenciada limita os impactos financeiros e de reputação. As conseqüências negativas sofridas pela companhia Air France foram limitadas.

Optimal exchange rate policy, optimal incomplete taxation and business cycles

Implementation and collapse of exchange rate pegging schemes are recur- rent events. A currency crisis (pegging) is usually followed by an economic downturn (boom). This essay explains why a benevolent government should pursue Þscal and monetary policies that lead to those recurrent currency crises and subsequent periods of pegging. It is shown that the optimal policy induces a competitive equilibrium that displays a boom in periods of below average de- valuation and a recession in periods of above average devaluation. A currency crisis (pegging) can be understood as an optimal policy answer to a recession (boom).

Associations between bioelectrical impedance parameters and cardiovascular events in chronic dialysis patients

Purpose: Malnutrition and fluid overload contribute to the poor cardiovascular prognosis of dialysis patients. Since bioelectrical impedance analysis is an option for the evaluation of body composition and for the monitoring of hydration state, it may assist in the identification of subjects at high cardiovascular risk. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between bioelectrical impedance parameters and cardiovascular events. Methods: The association between bioelectrical impedance parameters and fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular outcome was evaluated in 145 dialysis patients. Results: The mean age of the population studied was 54.9 ± 15.4 years, 49.7 % were males, and 35.9 % had diabetes. Forty (27.6 %) patients developed cardiovascular events during the 16 months (8; 32) of follow-up. Comparison of patients with and without cardiovascular events revealed higher extracellular mass/body cell mass (ECM/BCM) and extracellular water/total body water ratios and higher C-reactive protein levels in the former. Survival analysis showed that an ECM/BCM ratio >1.2 and a phase angle <6° were associated with poor cardiovascular prognosis. Among nondiabetic patients, these parameters and capacitance were independently associated with cardiovascular events, suggesting that poor nutritional status and fluid overload are associated with the occurrence of these events. Conclusions: Phase angle, capacitance and ECM/BCM ratio are valuable parameters for the evaluation of cardiovascular prognosis, supporting the use of bioelectrical impedance for the clinical assessment of dialysis patients. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.