Application of detection probabilities to the design of amphibian monitoring programs in temporary ponds

Failure to detect a species in an area where it is present is a major source of error in biological surveys. We assessed whether it is possible to optimize single-visit biological monitoring surveys of highly dynamic freshwater ecosystems by framing them a priori within a particular period of time. Alternatively, we also searched for the optimal number of visits and when they should be conducted. We developed single-species occupancy models to estimate the monthly probability of detection of pond-breeding amphibians during a four-year monitoring program. Our results revealed that detection probability was species-specific and changed among sampling visits within a breeding season and also among breeding seasons. Thereby, the optimization of biological surveys with minimal survey effort (a single visit) is not feasible as it proves impossible to select a priori an adequate sampling period that remains robust across years. Alternatively, a two-survey combination at the beginning of the sampling season yielded optimal results and constituted an acceptable compromise between sampling efficacy and survey effort. Our study provides evidence of the variability and uncertainty that likely affects the efficacy of monitoring surveys, highlighting the need of repeated sampling in both ecological studies and conservation management.

Transmission blocking vaccines to control insect-borne diseases: a review

Insect-borne diseases are responsible for severe mortality and morbidity worldwide. As control of insect vector populations relies primarily on the use of insecticides, the emergence of insecticide resistance as well to unintended consequences of insecticide use pose significant challenges to their continued application. Novel approaches to reduce pathogen transmission by disease vectors are been attempted, including transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) thought to be a feasible strategy to reduce pathogen burden in endemic areas. TBVs aim at preventing the transmission of pathogens from infected to uninfected vertebrate host by targeting molecule(s) expressed on the surface of pathogens during their developmental phase within the insect vector or by targeting molecules expressed by the vectors. For pathogen-based molecules, the majority of the TBV candidates selected as well as most of the data available regarding the effectiveness of this approach come from studies using malaria parasites. However, TBV candidates also have been identified from midgut tissues of mosquitoes and sand flies. In spite of the successes achieved in the potential application of TBVs against insect-borne diseases, many significant barriers remain. In this review, many of the TBV strategies against insect-borne pathogens and their respective ramification with regards to the immune response of the vertebrate host are discussed.

Compositional analysis of bivariate discrete probabilities

A joint distribution of two discrete random variables with finite support can be displayed as a two way table of probabilities adding to one. Assume that this table hasn rows and m columns and all probabilities are non-null. This kind of table can beseen as an element in the simplex of n · m parts. In this context, the marginals areidentified as compositional amalgams, conditionals (rows or columns) as subcompositions. Also, simplicial perturbation appears as Bayes theorem. However, the Euclideanelements of the Aitchison geometry of the simplex can also be translated into the tableof probabilities: subspaces, orthogonal projections, distances.Two important questions are addressed: a) given a table of probabilities, which isthe nearest independent table to the initial one? b) which is the largest orthogonalprojection of a row onto a column? or, equivalently, which is the information in arow explained by a column, thus explaining the interaction? To answer these questionsthree orthogonal decompositions are presented: (1) by columns and a row-wise geometric marginal, (2) by rows and a columnwise geometric marginal, (3) by independenttwo-way tables and fully dependent tables representing row-column interaction. Animportant result is that the nearest independent table is the product of the two (rowand column)-wise geometric marginal tables. A corollary is that, in an independenttable, the geometric marginals conform with the traditional (arithmetic) marginals.These decompositions can be compared with standard log-linear models.Key words: balance, compositional data, simplex, Aitchison geometry, composition,orthonormal basis, arithmetic and geometric marginals, amalgam, dependence measure,contingency table

Malaria transmission blocking immunity and sexual stage vaccines for interrupting malaria transmission in Latin America

Malaria is a vector-borne disease that is considered to be one of the most serious public health problems due to its high global mortality and morbidity rates. Although multiple strategies for controlling malaria have been used, many have had limited impact due to the appearance and rapid dissemination of mosquito resistance to insecticides, parasite resistance to multiple antimalarial drug, and the lack of sustainability. Individuals in endemic areas that have been permanently exposed to the parasite develop specific immune responses capable of diminishing parasite burden and the clinical manifestations of the disease, including blocking of parasite transmission to the mosquito vector. This is referred to as transmission blocking (TB) immunity (TBI) and is mediated by specific antibodies and other factors ingested during the blood meal that inhibit parasite development in the mosquito. These antibodies recognize proteins expressed on either gametocytes or parasite stages that develop in the mosquito midgut and are considered to be potential malaria vaccine candidates. Although these candidates, collectively called TB vaccines (TBV), would not directly stop malaria from infecting individuals, but would stop transmission from infected person to non-infected person. Here, we review the progress that has been achieved in TBI studies and the development of TBV and we highlight their potential usefulness in areas of low endemicity such as Latin America.

Gap probabilities for the cardinal sine

We study the zero set of random analytic functions generated by a sum of the cardinal sine functions which form an orthogonal basis for the Paley-Wiener space. As a model case, we consider real-valued Gaussian coefficients. It is shown that the asymptotic probability that there is no zero in a bounded interval decays exponentially as a function of the length.

Fab antibodies capable of blocking T cells by competitive binding have the identical specificity but a higher affinity to the MHC-peptide-complex than the T cell receptor.

In transplant rejection, graft versus host or autoimmune diseases T cells are mediating the pathophysiological processes. Compared to unspecific pharmacological immune suppression specific inhibition of those T cells, that are involved in the disease, would be an alternative and attractive approach. T cells are activated after their T cell receptor (TCR) recognizes an antigenic peptide displayed by the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC). Molecules that interact with MHC-peptide-complexes in a specific fashion should block T cells with identical specificity. Using the model of the SSX2 (103-111)/HLA-A*0201 complex we investigated a panel of MHC-peptide-specific Fab antibodies for their capacity blocking specific T cell clones. Like TCRs all Fab antibodies reacted with the MHC complex only when the SSX2 (103-111) peptide was displayed. By introducing single amino acid mutations in the HLA-A*0201 heavy chain we identified the K66 residue as the most critical binding similar to that of TCRs. However, some Fab antibodies did not inhibit the reactivity of a specific T cell clone against peptide pulsed, artificial targets, nor cells displaying the peptide after endogenous processing. Measurements of binding kinetics revealed that only those Fab antibodies were capable of blocking T cells that interacted with an affinity in the nanomolar range. Fab antibodies binding like TCRs with affinities on the lower micromolar range did not inhibit T cell reactivity. These results indicate that molecules that block T cells by competitive binding with the TCR must have the same specificity but higher affinity for the MHC-peptide-complex than the TCR.

Perturbation expansions of multilocus fixation probabilities for frequency-dependent selection with applications to the Hill-Robertson effect and to the joint evolution of helping and punishment.

Natural populations are of finite size and organisms carry multilocus genotypes. There are, nevertheless, few results on multilocus models when both random genetic drift and natural selection affect the evolutionary dynamics. In this paper we describe a formalism to calculate systematic perturbation expansions of moments of allelic states around neutrality in populations of constant size. This allows us to evaluate multilocus fixation probabilities (long-term limits of the moments) under arbitrary strength of selection and gene action. We show that such fixation probabilities can be expressed in terms of selection coefficients weighted by mean first passages times of ancestral gene lineages within a single ancestor. These passage times extend the coalescence times that weight selection coefficients in one-locus perturbation formulas for fixation probabilities. We then apply these results to investigate the Hill-Robertson effect and the coevolution of helping and punishment. Finally, we discuss limitations and strengths of the perturbation approach. In particular, it provides accurate approximations for fixation probabilities for weak selection regimes only (Ns < or = 1), but it provides generally good prediction for the direction of selection under frequency-dependent selection.

Identification concept and the use of probabilities in forensic odontology--an approach by philosophical discussion.

This paper questions the practitioners' deterministic approach(es) in forensic identification and notes the limits of their conclusions in order to encourage a discussion to question current practices. With this end in view, a hypothetical discussion between an expert in dentistry and an enthusiastic member of a jury, eager to understand the scientific principles of evidence interpretation, is presented. This discussion will lead us to regard any argument aiming at identification as probabilistic.

Generation and characterization of function-blocking anti-ectodysplasin A (EDA) monoclonal antibodies that induce ectodermal dysplasia.

Development of ectodermal appendages, such as hair, teeth, sweat glands, sebaceous glands, and mammary glands, requires the action of the TNF family ligand ectodysplasin A (EDA). Mutations of the X-linked EDA gene cause reduction or absence of many ectodermal appendages and have been identified as a cause of ectodermal dysplasia in humans, mice, dogs, and cattle. We have generated blocking antibodies, raised in Eda-deficient mice, against the conserved, receptor-binding domain of EDA. These antibodies recognize epitopes overlapping the receptor-binding site and prevent EDA from binding and activating EDAR at close to stoichiometric ratios in in vitro binding and activity assays. The antibodies block EDA1 and EDA2 of both mammalian and avian origin and, in vivo, suppress the ability of recombinant Fc-EDA1 to rescue ectodermal dysplasia in Eda-deficient Tabby mice. Moreover, administration of EDA blocking antibodies to pregnant wild type mice induced in developing wild type fetuses a marked and permanent ectodermal dysplasia. These function-blocking anti-EDA antibodies with wide cross-species reactivity will enable study of the developmental and postdevelopmental roles of EDA in a variety of organisms and open the route to therapeutic intervention in conditions in which EDA may be implicated.

Transition probabilities and duration analysis among disability states: Some evidence from Spanish data

In this paper we study the disability transition probabilities (as well as the mortalityprobabilities) due to concurrent factors to age such as income, gender and education. Althoughit is well known that ageing and socioeconomic status influence the probability ofcausing functional disorders, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the combined effectof those factors along the individuals' life and how this affects the transition from one degreeof disability to another. The assumption that tomorrow's disability state is only a functionof the today's state is very strong, since disability is a complex variable that depends onseveral other elements than time. This paper contributes into the field in two ways: (1) byattending the distinction between the initial disability level and the process that leads tohis course (2) by addressing whether and how education, age and income differentially affectthe disability transitions. Using a Markov chain discrete model and a survival analysis, weestimate the probability by year and individual characteristics that changes the state of disabilityand the duration that it takes its progression in each case. We find that people withan initial state of disability have a higher propensity to change and take less time to transitfrom different stages. Men do that more frequently than women. Education and incomehave negative effects on transition. Moreover, we consider the disability benefits associatedto those changes along different stages of disability and therefore we offer some clues onthe potential savings of preventive actions that may delay or avoid those transitions. Onpure cost considerations, preventive programs for improvement show higher benefits thanthose for preventing deterioration, and in general terms, those focussing individuals below65 should go first. Finally the trend of disability in Spain seems not to change among yearsand regional differences are not found.

Peptide modification or blocking of CD8, resulting in weak TCR signaling, can activate CTL for Fas- but not perforin-dependent cytotoxicity or cytokine production.

This study describes a form of partial agonism for a CD8+ CTL clone, S15, in which perforin-dependent killing and IFN-gamma production were lost but Fas (APO1 or CD95)-dependent cytotoxicity preserved. Cloned S15 CTL are H-2Kd restricted and specific for a photoreactive derivative of the Plasmodium berghei circumsporozoite peptide PbCS 252-260 (SYIPSAEKI). The presence of a photoactivatable group in the epitope permitted assessment of TCR-ligand binding by TCR photoaffinity labeling. Selective activation of Fas-dependent killing was observed for a peptide-derivative variant containing a modified photoreactive group. A similar functional response was obtained after binding of the wild-type peptide derivative upon blocking of CD8 participation in TCR-ligand binding. The epitope modification or blocking of CD8 resulted in an &gt; or = 8-fold decrease in TCR-ligand binding. In both cases, phosphorylation of zeta-chain and ZAP-70, as well as calcium mobilization were reduced close to background levels, indicating that activation of Fas-dependent cytotoxicity required weaker TCR signaling than activation of perforin-dependent killing or IFN-gamma production. Consistent with this, we observed that depletion of the protein tyrosine kinase p56(lck) by preincubation of S15 CTL with herbimycin A severely impaired perforin- but not Fas-dependent cytotoxicity. Together with the observation that S15 CTL constitutively express Fas ligand, these results indicate that TCR signaling too weak to elicit perforin-dependent cytotoxicity or cytokine production can induce Fas-dependent cytotoxicity, possibly by translocation of preformed Fas ligand to the cell surface.

Highly efficient DNA incorporation of intratumourally injected [125I]iododeoxyuridine under thymidine synthesis blocking in human glioblastoma xenografts.

Intratumoural (i.t.) injection of radio-iododeoxyuridine (IdUrd), a thymidine (dThd) analogue, is envisaged for targeted Auger electron- or beta-radiation therapy of glioblastoma. Here, biodistribution of [(125)I]IdUrd was evaluated 5 hr after i.t. injection in subcutaneous human glioblastoma xenografts LN229 after different intravenous (i.v.) pretreatments with fluorodeoxyuridine (FdUrd). FdUrd is known to block de novo dThd synthesis, thus favouring DNA incorporation of radio-IdUrd. Results showed that pretreatment with 2 mg/kg FdUrd i.v. in 2 fractions 0.5 hr and 1 hr before injection of radio-IdUrd resulted in a mean tumour uptake of 19.8% of injected dose (% ID), representing 65.3% ID/g for tumours of approx. 0.35 g. Tumour uptake of radio-IdUrd in non-pretreated mice was only 4.1% ID. Very low uptake was observed in normal nondividing and dividing tissues with a maximum concentration of 2.9% ID/g measured in spleen. Pretreatment with a higher dose of FdUrd of 10 mg/kg prolonged the increased tumour uptake of radio-IdUrd up to 5 hr. A competition experiment was performed in FdUrd pretreated mice using i.t. co-injection of excess dThd that resulted in very low tumour retention of [(125)I]IdUrd. DNA isolation experiments showed that in the mean &gt;95% of tumour (125)I activity was incorporated in DNA. In conclusion, these results show that close to 20% ID of radio-IdUrd injected i.t. was incorporated in tumour DNA after i.v. pretreatment with clinically relevant doses of FdUrd and that this approach may be further exploited for diffusion and therapy studies with Auger electron- and/or beta-radiation-emitting radio-IdUrd.