Effects of common origin and common rearing environment on variance in ectoparasite load and phenotype of nestling Alpine swifts

Knowledge of the quantitative genetics of resistance to parasitism is key to appraise host evolutionary responses to parasite selection. Here, we studied effects of common origin (i.e. genetic and pre-hatching parental effects) and common rearing environment (i.e. post-hatching parental effects and other environment effects) on variance in ectoparasite load in nestling Alpine swifts (Apus melba). This colonial bird is intensely parasitized by blood sucking louse-flies that impair nestling development and survival. By cross-fostering half of the hatchlings between pairs of nests, we show strong significant effect of common rearing environment on variance (90.7% in 2002 and 90.9% in 2003) in the number of louse-flies per nestling and no significant effect of common origin on variance in the number of louse-flies per nestling. In contrast, significant effects of common origin were found for all the nestling morphological traits (i.e. body mass, wing length, tail length, fork length and sternum length) under investigation. Hence, our study suggests that genetic and pre-hatching parental effects play little role in the distribution of parasites among nestling Alpine swifts, and thus that nestlings have only limited scope for evolutionary responses against parasites. Our results highlight the need to take into consideration environmental factors, including the evolution of post-hatching parental effects such as nest sanitation, in our understanding of host-parasite relationships.

The mean-variance model from the inverse of the variance-covariance matrix

En este artículo, a partir de la inversa de la matriz de varianzas y covarianzas se obtiene el modelo Esperanza-Varianza de Markowitz siguiendo un camino más corto y matemáticamente riguroso. También se obtiene la ecuación de equilibrio del CAPM de Sharpe.

The evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance.

Natural selection favors alleles that increase the number of offspring produced by their carriers. But in a world that is inherently uncertain within generations, selection also favors alleles that reduce the variance in the number of offspring produced. If previous studies have established this principle, they have largely ignored fundamental aspects of sexual reproduction and therefore how selection on sex-specific reproductive variance operates. To study the evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance, we present a population-genetic model of phenotypic evolution in a dioecious population that incorporates previously neglected components of reproductive variance. First, we derive the probability of fixation for mutations that affect male and/or female reproductive phenotypes under sex-specific selection. We find that even in the simplest scenarios, the direction of selection is altered when reproductive variance is taken into account. In particular, previously unaccounted for covariances between the reproductive outputs of different individuals are expected to play a significant role in determining the direction of selection. Then, the probability of fixation is used to develop a stochastic model of joint male and female phenotypic evolution. We find that sex-specific reproductive variance can be responsible for changes in the course of long-term evolution. Finally, the model is applied to an example of parental-care evolution. Overall, our model allows for the evolutionary analysis of social traits in finite and dioecious populations, where interactions can occur within and between sexes under a realistic scenario of reproduction.

Natural selection on fecundity variance in subdivided populations: kin selection meets bet hedging.

In a series of seminal articles in 1974, 1975, and 1977, J. H. Gillespie challenged the notion that the "fittest" individuals are those that produce on average the highest number of offspring. He showed that in small populations, the variance in fecundity can determine fitness as much as mean fecundity. One likely reason why Gillespie's concept of within-generation bet hedging has been largely ignored is the general consensus that natural populations are of large size. As a consequence, essentially no work has investigated the role of the fecundity variance on the evolutionary stable state of life-history strategies. While typically large, natural populations also tend to be subdivided in local demes connected by migration. Here, we integrate Gillespie's measure of selection for within-generation bet hedging into the inclusive fitness and game theoretic measure of selection for structured populations. The resulting framework demonstrates that selection against high variance in offspring number is a potent force in large, but structured populations. More generally, the results highlight that variance in offspring number will directly affect various life-history strategies, especially those involving kin interaction. The selective pressures on three key traits are directly investigated here, namely within-generation bet hedging, helping behaviors, and the evolutionary stable dispersal rate. The evolutionary dynamics of all three traits are markedly affected by variance in offspring number, although to a different extent and under different demographic conditions.

Analysis of experiments in square lattice with emphasis on variance components. i. Individual analysis

This paper focused on four alternatives of analysis of experiments in square lattice as far as the estimation of variance components and some genetic parameters are concerned: 1) intra-block analysis with adjusted treatment and blocks within unadjusted repetitions; 2) lattice analysis as complete randomized blocks; 3) intrablock analysis with unadjusted treatment and blocks within adjusted repetitions; 4) lattice analysis as complete randomized blocks, by utilizing the adjusted means of treatments, obtained from the analysis with recovery of interblock information, having as mean square of the error the mean effective variance of this same analysis with recovery of inter-block information. For the four alternatives of analysis, the estimators and estimates were obtained for the variance components and heritability coefficients. The classification of material was also studied. The present study suggests that for each experiment and depending of the objectives of the analysis, one should observe which alternative of analysis is preferable, mainly in cases where a negative estimate is obtained for the variance component due to effects of blocks within adjusted repetitions.

Analysis of variance of primary data on plant growth analysis

Plant growth analysis presents difficulties related to statistical comparison of growth rates, and the analysis of variance of primary data could guide the interpretation of results. The objective of this work was to evaluate the analysis of variance of data from distinct harvests of an experiment, focusing especially on the homogeneity of variances and the choice of an adequate ANOVA model. Data from five experiments covering different crops and growth conditions were used. From the total number of variables, 19% were originally homoscedastic, 60% became homoscedastic after logarithmic transformation, and 21% remained heteroscedastic after transformation. Data transformation did not affect the F test in one experiment, whereas in the other experiments transformation modified the F test usually reducing the number of significant effects. Even when transformation has not altered the F test, mean comparisons led to divergent interpretations. The mixed ANOVA model, considering harvest as a random effect, reduced the number of significant effects of every factor which had the F test modified by this model. Examples illustrated that analysis of variance of primary variables provides a tool for identifying significant differences in growth rates. The analysis of variance imposes restrictions to experimental design thereby eliminating some advantages of the functional growth analysis.

Covariance Matrix Estimation and Mean-Variance Optimization in application to International Diversification

Tutkimus keskittyy kansainväliseen hajauttamiseen suomalaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksen toinen tavoite on selvittää tehostavatko uudet kovarianssimatriisiestimaattorit minimivarianssiportfolion optimointiprosessia. Tavallisen otoskovarianssimatriisin lisäksi optimoinnissa käytetään kahta kutistusestimaattoria ja joustavaa monimuuttuja-GARCH(1,1)-mallia. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu Dow Jonesin toimialaindekseistä ja OMX-H:n portfolioindeksistä. Kansainvälinen hajautusstrategia on toteutettu käyttäen toimialalähestymistapaa ja portfoliota optimoidaan käyttäen kahtatoista komponenttia. Tutkimusaieisto kattaa vuodet 1996-2005 eli 120 kuukausittaista havaintoa. Muodostettujen portfolioiden suorituskykyä mitataan Sharpen indeksillä. Tutkimustulosten mukaan kansainvälisesti hajautettujen investointien ja kotimaisen portfolion riskikorjattujen tuottojen välillä ei ole tilastollisesti merkitsevää eroa. Myöskään uusien kovarianssimatriisiestimaattoreiden käytöstä ei synnytilastollisesti merkitsevää lisäarvoa verrattuna otoskovarianssimatrisiin perustuvaan portfolion optimointiin.

The influence of the quality of government institutions on entrepreneurial motivation: exploring the variance across countries

Despite the increasing understanding of the relationships between institutions and entrepreneurship, the influence of the quality of government institutions on entrepreneurship is less addressed. This paper focuses on this critical determinant of entrepreneurship in developing and developed countries. Drawing from institutional theory we hypothesize and empirically assess the role of the quality of institutions in entrepreneurial activity. We examine how the quality of government institutions influences the rate of necessity-based entrepreneurial activity across countries and over time by using a cross-sectional time-series approach on data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) database covering the years 2001–2011. Our results suggest that higher economic development associated with better quality of institutions reduces the prevalence of necessity-based entrepreneurship. Our findings imply that developing countries must rationally organize their functions, and seek to remove unnecessary barriers, decrease political instability, and controls that hamper entrepreneurial activity

Ecological and physiological variance in T-cell mediated immune response in Cory's shearwaters

T-cell mediated immune response (CMI) hasbeen widely studied in relation to individual andfitness components in birds. However, few studieshave simultaneously examined individual and socialfactors and habitat-mediated variance in theimmunity of chicks and adults from the samepopulation and in the same breeding season. Weinvestigated ecological and physiological variancein CMI of male and female nestlings and adults in abreeding population of Cory's Shearwaters(Calonectrisdiomedea) in theMediterranean Sea. Explanatory variables includedindividual traits (body condition, carbon andnitrogen stable isotope ratios, plasma totalproteins, triglycerides, uric acid, osmolarity,β-hydroxy-butyrate, erythrocyte meancorpuscular diameter, hematocrit, andhemoglobin) and burrow traits(temperature, isolation, and physicalstructure). During incubation, immune responseof adult males was significantly greater than thatof females. Nestlings exhibited a lower immuneresponse than adults. Ecological and physiologicalfactors affecting immune response differed betweenadults and nestlings. General linear models showedthat immune response in adult males was positivelyassociated with burrow isolation, suggesting thatmales breeding at higher densities suffer immunesystem suppression. In contrast, immune response inchicks was positively associated with bodycondition and plasma triglyceride levels.Therefore, adult immune response appears to beassociated with social stress, whereas a trade-offbetween immune function and fasting capability mayexist for nestlings. Our results, and those fromprevious studies, provide support for anasymmetrical influence of ecological andphysiological factors on the health of differentage and sex groups within a population, and for theimportance of simultaneously considering individualand population characteristics in intraspecificstudies of immune response.

Ecological and physiological variance in T-cell mediated immune response in Cory's shearwaters

T-cell mediated immune response (CMI) hasbeen widely studied in relation to individual andfitness components in birds. However, few studieshave simultaneously examined individual and socialfactors and habitat-mediated variance in theimmunity of chicks and adults from the samepopulation and in the same breeding season. Weinvestigated ecological and physiological variancein CMI of male and female nestlings and adults in abreeding population of Cory's Shearwaters(Calonectrisdiomedea) in theMediterranean Sea. Explanatory variables includedindividual traits (body condition, carbon andnitrogen stable isotope ratios, plasma totalproteins, triglycerides, uric acid, osmolarity,β-hydroxy-butyrate, erythrocyte meancorpuscular diameter, hematocrit, andhemoglobin) and burrow traits(temperature, isolation, and physicalstructure). During incubation, immune responseof adult males was significantly greater than thatof females. Nestlings exhibited a lower immuneresponse than adults. Ecological and physiologicalfactors affecting immune response differed betweenadults and nestlings. General linear models showedthat immune response in adult males was positivelyassociated with burrow isolation, suggesting thatmales breeding at higher densities suffer immunesystem suppression. In contrast, immune response inchicks was positively associated with bodycondition and plasma triglyceride levels.Therefore, adult immune response appears to beassociated with social stress, whereas a trade-offbetween immune function and fasting capability mayexist for nestlings. Our results, and those fromprevious studies, provide support for anasymmetrical influence of ecological andphysiological factors on the health of differentage and sex groups within a population, and for theimportance of simultaneously considering individualand population characteristics in intraspecificstudies of immune response.

Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated.

Statistical segmentation methods and color variance analysis of retinal images

In this research, the effectiveness of Naive Bayes and Gaussian Mixture Models classifiers on segmenting exudates in retinal images is studied and the results are evaluated with metrics commonly used in medical imaging. Also, a color variation analysis of retinal images is carried out to find how effectively can retinal images be segmented using only the color information of the pixels.

Optimizing counterparty credit risk portfolio by reducing exposure at default variance

Rahoitusyhtiöt pitävät omaa pääomaa taseessa harvinaisen suuria markkinamuutoksia varten ja tämän pääoman määrä on ohjattu valvontaviranomaisten toimesta. Euroopassa Basel akordi antaa suuntaviivat näille säädöksille. 2007 vuoden finanssikriisin jälkeen rahoitusyhtiöt sekä valvojat ovat olleet entistä kiinnostuneempia pääoman riittävyydestä. Tutkimuksia riskistä, säädöksistä ja pääomavaateen madaltamisesta on tehty aikaisemmin, mutta tässä tutkimuksessa keskitytään vaateen jatkuvan muutoksen suuruuteen. Tutkimus sisältää hypoteettisen vastapuoliriski portfolion, jossa on mukana valuuttajohdannaisia. Tätä portfoliota simuloidaan eri tavoin, jotta nähtäisiin kuinka suuri vaikutus portfolion koostumuksella voi olla pääomavaateen varianssiin. Jos tämä muuttuja on merkittävä, pitäisikö rahoitusyhtiöiden yrittää pienentää muutosta, jotta yhtiöiden varapääoman määrää voitaisiin alentaa? Tutkimuksessa on myös haastateltu Suomen johtavia vastapuoliriski asiantuntijoita, jotta nähtäisiin rahoitusalan oma näkemys asian merkittävyydestä. Tutkimusmenetelminä toimivat haastattelut sekä numeerinen analyysi hypoteettisella portfoliolla. Kaupat tähän vastapuoliriski portfolioon on luotu 14 vuoden ajalle ja se sisältää ainoastaan valuuttajohdannaisia viidessä eri valuutassa. Riski lasketaan markkina-arvo menetelmällä, joista lasketaan VaR-mallilla tulevaisuuden riski nettoutuksen kera. Portfolion rakennetta muutetaan simuloinneissa, jotta nähtäisiin vaikutus tulevaisuuden riskeille, joita käytetään edustamaan pääomavaateen määrää ja sen vaihtelua yli ajan. Portfolioiden riskejä lasketaan myös rasituskokeiden avulla, jotta tuloksista saataisiin mahdollisimman todenmukaisia. Analyyttinen osuus tutkimuksesta näyttää sen, että tämän kaltainen optimointi on suuresti riippuvainen alkuperäisestä portfoliosta, jonka määrittää yleisesti rahoitusyhtiön myyntistrategia. Yleisesti ottaen pääomavaateen varianssin muutos voi simuloinneissa olla melko suurta, varsinkin jos mukaan huomioidaan rasitus testit, puuttuvat tuotteet sekä muut pääomavaateen laskentaan huomioitavat seikat. Haastatteluissa saatiin selville millainen optimointi voisi olla mahdollista todellisuudessa. Huomattiin myös että tämän kaltainen ajattelumalli on jo huomattu alalla ennestään. Jon Gregory jopa mainitsi, että jotkin rahoitusyhtiöt ovat enemmän kiinnostuneita muutosten pienentämisestä kuin itse pääomavaateen suuruudesta. Näyttääkin siltä, että tämän aihepiiri vaatisi entistä enemmän tutkimusta, sillä sitä ei ennestään vielä ole, ja rahoitusyhtiöt ovat jo alkaneet etsimään uusia keinoja selvitäkseen rahoitusalalla, joka on yhä entisestään kilpailullisempi.