Variação morfológica, vocal e genética na espécie politípica Lepidocolaptes albolineatus (Aves – Dendrocolaptidae)

Lepidocolaptes albolineatus (Aves: Dendrocolaptidae) é uma espécie biológica politípica, constituída pelos seguintes táxons: L. a. albolineatus, que ocorre na Área de Endemismo (AE) Guiana, L. a. duidae (AE Imeri), L .a. fuscicapillus (AE Rondônia), L. a. madeirae (AE Rondônia) e L. a .layardi (AEs Tapajós, Xingu e Belém). Os objetivos deste trabalho foram: (1) revisar a validade e a diagnosabilidade dos táxons atualmente agrupados em L. albolineatus com base em caracteres morfológicos, vocais e moleculares e (2) reavaliar os limites interespecíficos entre estes táxons. Foram mensurados 150 espécimes depositados em 8 museus do Brasil e EUA. Para a análise molecular, foram seqüenciados um total de 940 pb do gene mitocondrial ND2 para 35 indivíduos de todos os táxons de L. albolineatus. As análises filogenéticas foram realizadas nos programa PAUP 4.0 b 10 e MrBayes 3.1 utilizando-se os métodos de parcimônia (MP), máxima verossimilhança (MV) e inferência Bayesiana. A combinação de dados morfológicos e moleculares revelou a existência de 5 clados fortemente apoiados estatisticamente: clado 1 (agrupando indivíduos da AE Rondônia), clado 2 (agrupando espécimes das AE Belém, Xingu e Tapajós), clado 3 (incluindo espécimes da AE Inambari), clado 4 (incluindo indivíduos da AE Imeri) e clado 5 (agrupando indivíduos da AE Guiana). Todos os clados corresponderam a táxons já nomeados, exceto o clado 3 para o qual nenhum nome válido se encontra disponível, já que o nome fuscicapillus na verdade se aplica ao clado 1 e, portanto, deve ser considerado sinônimo sênior de madeirae. A principal separação genética e morfológica em L. albolineatus acontece entre o táxon nominal e os demais, embora cada um dos 5 clados possa ser considerado uma espécie distinta (com base no Conceito Filético Geral de Espécie) através de uma combinação única de caracteres morfológicos, vocais e moleculares diagnósticos.

Delineamentos experimentais eficientes para estudos de cinética química

In this paper we show how to obtain efficient designs of experiments for fitting Michaelis-Menten and Hill equations useful in chemical studies. The search of exact D-optimal designs by using local and pseudo-Bayesian approaches is considered. Optimal designs were compared to those commonly used in practice using an efficiency measure and theoretical standard errors of the kinetic parameter estimates. In conclusion, the D-optimal designs based on the Hill equation proved efficient for estimating the parameters of both models. Furthermore, these are promising with respect to practical issues, allowing efficient estimation as well as goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons between some kinetic models.

Vertical transmission of hepatitis C virus: A tale of multiple outcomes

Globally, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection affects approximately 130 million people and 3 million new infections occur annually. HCV is also recognized as an important cause of chronic liver disease in children. The absence of proofreading properties of the HCV RNA polymerase leads to a highly error prone replication process, allowing HCV to escape host immune response. The adaptive nature of HCV evolution dictates the outcome of the disease in many ways. Here, we investigated the molecular evolution of HCV in three unrelated children who acquired chronic HCV infection as a result of mother-to-child transmission, two of whom were also coinfected with HIV-1. The persistence of discrete HCV variants and their population structure were assessed using median joining network and Bayesian approaches. While patterns of viral evolution clearly differed between subjects, immune system dysfunction related to HIV coinfection or persistent HCV seronegativity stand as potential mechanisms to explain the lack of molecular evolution observed in these three cases. In contrast, treatment of HCV infection with PegIFN, which did not lead to sustained virologic responses in all 3 cases, was not associated with commensurate variations in the complexity of the variant spectrum. Finally, the differences in the degree of divergence suggest that the mode of transmission of the virus was not the main factor driving viral evolution. (C) 2013 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Is Drosera meristocaulis a pygmy sundew? evidence of a long-distance dispersal between Western Australia and northern South America

Background and aims South America and Oceania possess numerous floristic similarities, often confirmed by morphological and molecular data. The carnivorous Drosera meristocaulis (Droseraceae), endemic to the Neblina highlands of northern South America, was known to share morphological characters with the pygmy sundews of Drosera sect. Bryastrum, which are endemic to Australia and New Zealand. The inclusion of D. meristocaulis in a molecular phylogenetic analysis may clarify its systematic position and offer an opportunity to investigate character evolution in Droseraceae and phylogeographic patterns between South America and Oceania. Methods Drosera meristocaulis was included in a molecular phylogenetic analysis of Droseraceae, using nuclear internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and plastid rbcL and rps16 sequence data. Pollen of D. meristocaulis was studied using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy techniques, and the karyotype was inferred from root tip meristem. Key Results The phylogenetic inferences (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches) substantiate with high statistical support the inclusion of sect. Meristocaulis and its single species, D. meristocaulis, within the Australian Drosera clade, sister to a group comprising species of sect. Bryastrum. A chromosome number of 2n = approx. 32–36 supports the phylogenetic position within the Australian clade. The undivided styles, conspicuous large setuous stipules, a cryptocotylar (hypogaeous) germination pattern and pollen tetrads with aperture of intermediate type 7–8 are key morphological traits shared between D. meristocaulis and pygmy sundews of sect. Bryastrum from Australia and New Zealand. Conclusions The multidisciplinary approach adopted in this study (using morphological, palynological, cytotaxonomic and molecular phylogenetic data) enabled us to elucidate the relationships of the thus far unplaced taxon D. meristocaulis. Long-distance dispersal between southwestern Oceania and northern South America is the most likely scenario to explain the phylogeographic pattern revealed.

Gastrotricha: A Marine Sister for a Freshwater Puzzle

Background: Within an evolutionary framework of Gastrotricha Marinellina flagellata and Redudasys fornerise bear special interest, as they are the only Macrodasyida that inhabit freshwater ecosystems. Notwithstanding, these rare animals are poorly known; found only once (Austria and Brazil), they are currently systematised as incertae sedis. Here we report on the rediscovery of Redudasys fornerise, provide an account on morphological novelties and present a hypothesis on its phylogenetic relationship based on molecular data. Methodology/Principal Findings: Specimens were surveyed using DIC microscopy and SEM, and used to obtain the 18 S rRNA gene sequence; molecular data was analyzed cladistically in conjunction with data from 42 additional species belonging to the near complete Macrodasyida taxonomic spectrum. Morphological analysis, while providing new information on taxonomically relevant traits (adhesive tubes, protonephridia and sensorial bristles), failed to detect elements of the male system, thus stressing the parthenogenetic nature of the Brazilian species. Phylogenetic analysis, carried out with ML, MP and Bayesian approaches, yielded topologies with strong nodal support and highly congruent with each other. Among the supported groups is the previously undocumented clade showing the alliance between Redudasys fornerise and Dactylopodola agadasys; other strongly sustained clades include the densely sampled families Thaumastodermatidae and Turbanellidae and most genera. Conclusions/Significance: A reconsideration of the morphological traits of Dactylopodola agadasys in light of the new information on Redudasys fornerise makes the alliance between these two taxa very likely. As a result, we create Anandrodasys gen. nov. to contain members of the previously described D. agadasys and erect Redudasyidae fam. nov. to reflect this novel relationship between Anandrodasys and Redudasys. From an ecological perspective, the derived position of Redudasys, which is deeply nested within the Macrodasyida clade, unequivocally demonstrates that invasion of freshwater by gastrotrichs has taken place at least twice, in contrast with the single event hypothesis recently put forward.

Is Drosera meristocaulis a pygmy sundew? Evidence of a long-distance dispersal between Western Australia and northern South America

South America and Oceania possess numerous floristic similarities, often confirmed by morphological and molecular data. The carnivorous Drosera meristocaulis (Droseraceae), endemic to the Neblina highlands of northern South America, was known to share morphological characters with the pygmy sundews of Drosera sect. Bryastrum, which are endemic to Australia and New Zealand. The inclusion of D. meristocaulis in a molecular phylogenetic analysis may clarify its systematic position and offer an opportunity to investigate character evolution in Droseraceae and phylogeographic patterns between South America and Oceania. was included in a molecular phylogenetic analysis of Droseraceae, using nuclear internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and plastid rbcL and rps16 sequence data. Pollen of D. meristocaulis was studied using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy techniques, and the karyotype was inferred from root tip meristem. The phylogenetic inferences (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches) substantiate with high statistical support the inclusion of sect. Meristocaulis and its single species, D. meristocaulis, within the Australian Drosera clade, sister to a group comprising species of sect. Bryastrum. A chromosome number of 2n approx. 3236 supports the phylogenetic position within the Australian clade. The undivided styles, conspicuous large setuous stipules, a cryptocotylar (hypogaeous) germination pattern and pollen tetrads with aperture of intermediate type 78 are key morphological traits shared between D. meristocaulis and pygmy sundews of sect. Bryastrum from Australia and New Zealand. The multidisciplinary approach adopted in this study (using morphological, palynological, cytotaxonomic and molecular phylogenetic data) enabled us to elucidate the relationships of the thus far unplaced taxon D. meristocaulis. Long-distance dispersal between southwestern Oceania and northern South America is the most likely scenario to explain the phylogeographic pattern revealed.

The evolution of antennal courtship in diplazontine parasitoid wasps (Hymenoptera, Ichneumonidae, Diplazontinae)

Background As predicted by theory, traits associated with reproduction often evolve at a comparatively high speed. This is especially the case for courtship behaviour which plays a central role in reproductive isolation. On the other hand, courtship behavioural traits often involve morphological and behavioural adaptations in both sexes; this suggests that their evolution might be under severe constraints, for instance irreversibility of character loss. Here, we use a recently proposed method to retrieve data on a peculiar courtship behavioural trait, i.e. antennal coiling, for 56 species of diplazontine parasitoid wasps. On the basis of a well-resolved phylogeny, we reconstruct the evolutionary history of antennal coiling and associated morphological modifications to study the mode of evolution of this complex character system. Results Our study reveals a large variation in shape, location and ultra-structure of male-specific modifications on the antennae. As for antennal coiling, we find either single-coiling, double-coiling or the absence of coiling; each state is present in multiple genera. Using a model comparison approach, we show that the possession of antennal modifications is highly correlated with antennal coiling behaviour. Ancestral state reconstruction shows that both antennal modifications and antennal coiling are highly congruent with the molecular phylogeny, implying low levels of homoplasy and a comparatively low speed of evolution. Antennal coiling is lost on two independent occasions, and never reacquired. A zero rate of regaining antennal coiling is supported by maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Conclusions Our study provides the first comparative evidence for a tight correlation between male-specific antennal modifications and the use of the antennae during courtship. Antennal coiling in Diplazontinae evolved at a comparatively low rate, and was never reacquired in any of the studied taxa. This suggests that the loss of antennal coiling is irreversible on the timescale examined here, and therefore that evolutionary constraints have greatly influenced the evolution of antennal courtship in this group of parasitoid wasps. Further studies are needed to ascertain whether the loss of antennal coiling is irreversible on larger timescales, and whether evolutionary constraints have influenced courtship behavioural traits in a similar way in other groups.

Computational Techniques for Spatial Logistic Regression with Large Datasets

In epidemiological work, outcomes are frequently non-normal, sample sizes may be large, and effects are often small. To relate health outcomes to geographic risk factors, fast and powerful methods for fitting spatial models, particularly for non-normal data, are required. We focus on binary outcomes, with the risk surface a smooth function of space. We compare penalized likelihood models, including the penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) approach, and Bayesian models based on fit, speed, and ease of implementation. A Bayesian model using a spectral basis representation of the spatial surface provides the best tradeoff of sensitivity and specificity in simulations, detecting real spatial features while limiting overfitting and being more efficient computationally than other Bayesian approaches. One of the contributions of this work is further development of this underused representation. The spectral basis model outperforms the penalized likelihood methods, which are prone to overfitting, but is slower to fit and not as easily implemented. Conclusions based on a real dataset of cancer cases in Taiwan are similar albeit less conclusive with respect to comparing the approaches. The success of the spectral basis with binary data and similar results with count data suggest that it may be generally useful in spatial models and more complicated hierarchical models.

Poisson dynamic models. An application to interurban accidents in Spain

In this study we apply count data models to four integer–valued time series related to accidentality in Spanish roads applying both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The time series are: number of fatalities, number of fatal accidents, number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) and number of accidents with KSI. The model structure is Poisson regression with first order autoregressive errors. The purpose of the paper is first to sort out the explanatory variables by relevance and second to carry out a prediction exercise for validation.

High nuclear genetic diversity, high levels of outcrossing and low differentiation among remnant populations of Quercus petraea at the margin of its range in Ireland

Background and Aims Quercus petraea colonized Ireland after the last glaciation from refugia on mainland Europe. Deforestation. however. beginning in Neolithic times, has resulted in small, scattered forest fragments, now covering less than 12 000 ha. Methods Plastid (three fragments) and microsatellite variation (13 loci) were characterized in seven Irish populations sampled along a north-south gradient. Using Bayesian approaches and Wright's F-statistics, the effects of colonization and fragmentation on the genetic structure and mating patterns of extant oak populations were investigated. Key-Results All Populations possessed cytotypes common to the Iberian Peninsula. Despite the distance from the refugial core and the extensive deforestation in Ireland, nuclear genetic variation was high and comparable to mainland Europe. Low population differentiation was observed within Ireland and populations showed no evidence for isolation by distance. As expected of a marker with an effective Population size of one-quarter relative to the nuclear genome, plastid variation indicated higher differentiation. Individual inbreeding coefficients indicated high levels of outcrossing. Conclusions Consistent with a large effective Population size in the historical migrant gene pool and/or with high gene flow among populations, high within-population diversity and low population differentiation was observred within Ireland. It is proposed that native Q. petraea populations in Ireland share a common phylogeographic history and that the present genetic structure does not reflect founder effects. (C) 2004 Annals of Botany Company.

Analysis of population pharmacokinetic data using NONMEM and WinBUGS

The aim of this report is to describe the use of WinBUGS for two datasets that arise from typical population pharmacokinetic studies. The first dataset relates to gentamicin concentration-time data that arose as part of routine clinical care of 55 neonates. The second dataset incorporated data from 96 patients receiving enoxaparin. Both datasets were originally analyzed by using NONMEM. In the first instance, although NONMEM provided reasonable estimates of the fixed effects parameters it was unable to provide satisfactory estimates of the between-subject variance. In the second instance, the use of NONMEM resulted in the development of a successful model, albeit with limited available information on the between-subject variability of the pharmacokinetic parameters. WinBUGS was used to develop a model for both of these datasets. Model comparison for the enoxaparin dataset was performed by using the posterior distribution of the log-likelihood and a posterior predictive check. The use of WinBUGS supported the same structural models tried in NONMEM. For the gentamicin dataset a one-compartment model with intravenous infusion was developed, and the population parameters including the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix were available. Analysis of the enoxaparin dataset supported a two compartment model as superior to the one-compartment model, based on the posterior predictive check. Again, the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix parameters were available. Fully Bayesian approaches using MCMC methods, via WinBUGS, can offer added value for analysis of population pharmacokinetic data.

Directional genetic differentiation and relative migration

Understanding the population structure and patterns of gene flow within species is of fundamental importance to the study of evolution. In the fields of population and evolutionary genetics, measures of genetic differentiation are commonly used to gather this information. One potential caveat is that these measures assume gene flow to be symmetric. However, asymmetric gene flow is common in nature, especially in systems driven by physical processes such as wind or water currents. As information about levels of asymmetric gene flow among populations is essential for the correct interpretation of the distribution of contemporary genetic diversity within species, this should not be overlooked. To obtain information on asymmetric migration patterns from genetic data, complex models based on maximum-likelihood or Bayesian approaches generally need to be employed, often at great computational cost. Here, a new simpler and more efficient approach for understanding gene flow patterns is presented. This approach allows the estimation of directional components of genetic divergence between pairs of populations at low computational effort, using any of the classical or modern measures of genetic differentiation. These directional measures of genetic differentiation can further be used to calculate directional relative migration and to detect asymmetries in gene flow patterns. This can be done in a user-friendly web application called divMigrate-online introduced in this study. Using simulated data sets with known gene flow regimes, we demonstrate that the method is capable of resolving complex migration patterns under a range of study designs.

Comparison of different methods to detect genetic barriers in a small mammal population

Habitat fragmentation and the consequently the loss of connectivity between populations can reduce the individuals interchange and gene flow, increasing the chances of inbreeding, and the increase the risk of local extinction. Landscape genetics is providing more and better tools to identify genetic barriers.. To our knowledge, no comparison of methods in terms of consistency has been made with observed data and species with low dispersal ability. The aim of this study is to examine the consistency of the results of five methods to detect barriers to gene flow in a Mediterranean pine vole population Microtus duodecimcostatus: F-statistics estimations, Non-Bayesian clustering, Bayesian clustering, Boundary detection and Simple/Partial Mantel tests. All methods were consistent in detecting the stream as a non-genetic barrier. However, no consistency in results among the methods were found regarding the role of the highway as a genetic barrier. Fst, Bayesian clustering assignment test and Partial Mantel test identifyed the highway as a filter to individual interchange. The Mantel tests were the most sensitive method. Boundary detection method (Monmonier’s Algorithm) and Non-Bayesian approaches did not detect any genetic differentiation of the pine vole due to the highway. Based on our findings we recommend that the genetic barrier detection in low dispersal ability populations should be analyzed with multiple methods such as Mantel tests, Bayesian clustering approaches because they show more sensibility in those scenarios and with boundary detection methods by having the aim of detect drastic changes in a variable of interest between the closest individuals. Although simulation studies highlight the weaknesses and the strengths of each method and the factors that promote some results, tests with real data are needed to increase the effectiveness of genetic barrier detection.

Modelo de regressão beta para teste de estresse em risco de crédito de instituições financeiras

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Exatas, Departamento de Estatistica, 2015.

Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.