Stabilization constraints from different-average public debt levels in a Monetary Union with country-size asymmetry

In the sequence of the recent financial and economic crisis, the recent public debt accumulation is expected to hamper considerably business cycle stabilization, by enlarging the budgetary consequences of the shocks. This paper analyses how the average level of public debt in a monetary union shapes optimal discretionary fiscal and monetary stabilization policies and affects stabilization welfare. We use a two-country micro-founded New-Keynesian model, where a benevolent central bank and the fiscal authorities play discretionary policy games under different union-average debt-constrained scenarios. We find that high debt levels shift monetary policy assignment from inflation to debt stabilization, making cooperation welfare superior to noncooperation. Moreover, when average debt is too high, welfare moves directly (inversely) with debt-to-output ratios for the union and the large country (small country) under cooperation. However, under non-cooperation, higher average debt levels benefit only the large country.

Arrow Plot: a new graphical tool for selecting up and down regulated genes and genes differentially expressed on samples subgroups

Background: A common task in analyzing microarray data is to determine which genes are differentially expressed across two (or more) kind of tissue samples or samples submitted under experimental conditions. Several statistical methods have been proposed to accomplish this goal, generally based on measures of distance between classes. It is well known that biological samples are heterogeneous because of factors such as molecular subtypes or genetic background that are often unknown to the experimenter. For instance, in experiments which involve molecular classification of tumors it is important to identify significant subtypes of cancer. Bimodal or multimodal distributions often reflect the presence of subsamples mixtures. Consequently, there can be genes differentially expressed on sample subgroups which are missed if usual statistical approaches are used. In this paper we propose a new graphical tool which not only identifies genes with up and down regulations, but also genes with differential expression in different subclasses, that are usually missed if current statistical methods are used. This tool is based on two measures of distance between samples, namely the overlapping coefficient (OVL) between two densities and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The methodology proposed here was implemented in the open-source R software. Results: This method was applied to a publicly available dataset, as well as to a simulated dataset. We compared our results with the ones obtained using some of the standard methods for detecting differentially expressed genes, namely Welch t-statistic, fold change (FC), rank products (RP), average difference (AD), weighted average difference (WAD), moderated t-statistic (modT), intensity-based moderated t-statistic (ibmT), significance analysis of microarrays (samT) and area under the ROC curve (AUC). On both datasets all differentially expressed genes with bimodal or multimodal distributions were not selected by all standard selection procedures. We also compared our results with (i) area between ROC curve and rising area (ABCR) and (ii) the test for not proper ROC curves (TNRC). We found our methodology more comprehensive, because it detects both bimodal and multimodal distributions and different variances can be considered on both samples. Another advantage of our method is that we can analyze graphically the behavior of different kinds of differentially expressed genes. Conclusion: Our results indicate that the arrow plot represents a new flexible and useful tool for the analysis of gene expression profiles from microarrays.

Contradiction between the average age of retirement at the time of death and the average pension time for men and women in public employment in Portugal

The short article attempts to make some very brief reflections on the effects a lack of public policies positively discriminatory in terms of public employment retirement. In particular, the observation of the absurd contradiction between the average age of retirement at the time of death (for men and women) and the average pension time for men and women in public employment in Portugal.

Patofisiologia de osteonecrose induzida por bisfosfonatos e inibidores de RANK-L

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Isolated and synergistic effects of PM10 and average temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality

OBJECTIVE To analyze the effect of air pollution and temperature on mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. METHODS We evaluated the isolated and synergistic effects of temperature and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10) on the mortality of individuals > 40 years old due to cardiovascular disease and that of individuals > 60 years old due to respiratory diseases in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Three methodologies were used to evaluate the isolated association: time-series analysis using Poisson regression model, bidirectional case-crossover analysis matched by period, and case-crossover analysis matched by the confounding factor, i.e., average temperature or pollutant concentration. The graphical representation of the response surface, generated by the interaction term between these factors added to the Poisson regression model, was interpreted to evaluate the synergistic effect of the risk factors. RESULTS No differences were observed between the results of the case-crossover and time-series analyses. The percentage change in the relative risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 0.85% (0.45;1.25) and 1.60% (0.74;2.46), respectively, due to an increase of 10 μg/m3 in the PM10 concentration. The pattern of correlation of the temperature with cardiovascular mortality was U-shaped and that with respiratory mortality was J-shaped, indicating an increased relative risk at high temperatures. The values for the interaction term indicated a higher relative risk for cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities at low temperatures and high temperatures, respectively, when the pollution levels reached approximately 60 μg/m3. CONCLUSIONS The positive association standardized in the Poisson regression model for pollutant concentration is not confounded by temperature, and the effect of temperature is not confounded by the pollutant levels in the time-series analysis. The simultaneous exposure to different levels of environmental factors can create synergistic effects that are as disturbing as those caused by extreme concentrations.

Portuguese average cost of capital

The oldest Portuguese share index still being calculated is the BVL/PSI-General, one which started the daily series on 5/Jan/1988 with a base value of 1000 points. Everyday a single value is computed based on the closing prices of all the shares included in the sample. Also, all corporate events affecting the price of any share beyond market sentiment are taken into account through proper adjustments, either in the numerator or the denominator of the formula. However, for dates before January 1988, there is nothing comparable to this index since the two different series known either never disclosed the methodology adopted to calculate the index or followed solutions not compatible with the above index. The present paper explains the solutions adopted to replicate as closely as possible the methodology of the BVL-General index to the main market of the Lisbon Exchange for the period 1978 – 1987. This is the first estimate of the historical Equity Risk Premium in Portugal above short-term risk-free rate from the re-opening of the market following the Carnation Revolution (and the accompanying nationalizations), to the present. In showing a value of the same order of magnitude found in other countries, the paper invites further studies on the effects of political decisions such as privatizations and joining the European Union.

Análise da relação entre intensidade da actividade física realiada com a sensação subjectiva de esforço na população com idade igual ou superior a 75 anos

RESUMO: Objectivo: O objectivo geral do estudo é analisar a relação entre intensidade da actividade física (AF) realizada pela população idosa com 75 anos ou mais, com a respectiva sensação subjectiva de esforço (SSE). Introdução: Em Portugal, e de acordo o Instituto Nacional de Estatística, em 2011 cerca de 19% da população tem mais de 65 anos. Em 2050, as estimativas apontam que esta percentagem seja de 25%, ou seja, um quarto do país. O envelhecimento propicía um declínio físico e funcional, e para o retardar estão recomendados 150 minutos por semana de AF moderada. A forma como tem sido avaliada a AF tem por base um pressuposto de comparação com valores de gasto energético de uma população com uma média de 40 anos. É fundamental a realização de estudos que analisem a associação entre o nível de intensidade de AF com a SSE, para aferir se esta comparação é transponível para esta faixa etária. Metodologia: Trata-se de um estudo observacional analítico transversal, com uma amostra constituída por 39 participantes, com uma mediana 77,0 anos de idade (percentil 25: 76,0; percentil 75: 80,0), sendo a mínima 75 e a máxima 86 anos. As variáveis são a SSE e a intensidade de cada actividade realizada. O protocolo de avaliação foi constituído pelo questionário de caracterização sóciodemográfica, Diário de AF e a Escala de Borg RPE 6-20. Resultados: Existe uma associação negativa significativa entre a idade e o gasto energético total (rs = -0,365, p=0,022) e uma associação negativa, moderada e significativa entre a idade e a SSE reportada média (rs = -0,521, p=0,001) e máxima (rs = -0,465, p=0,003). Observou-se uma associação positiva e significativa entre a SSE máxima diária e o tempo total dedicado a actividades físicas (r=0,367 e p=0,022) e o gasto energético total (r=0,569, p<0,001). Verificou-se igualmente que quanto maior o gasto energético total diário, maior a média da SSE (r=0,411; p=0,009). Existe uma concordância moderada e significativa (Kappa=0,475; p<0,001) entre a sensação reportada pelo participante e a classificação atribuída em cada actividade pelo Compêndio de Actividades Físicas (Ainsworth et al, 1993). No entanto, com uma tendência para a subestimação dos MET’s atribuídos a cada actividade Conclusão: Os resultados do estudo sugerem que existe uma associação positiva e significativa entre intensidade da AF realizada e a SSE, aquando da realização da mesma actividade. Apesar desta associação ser moderada, este estudo sugere que a classificação que o Compêndio utiliza não é directamente aplicável à população idosa com 75 anos ou mais.-------------ABSTRACT: Purpose: The overall objective of the study is to analyze the relationship between intensity of physical activity performed by the elderly population with 75 years or more with their subjective feeling of effort. Background: In Portugal, according with data from Instituto Português de Estatística, in 2011 aproximately 19% of the population has more than 65 years old. In 2050, estimates suggest that this percentage will be 25%, which means a quarter of the country. The way in which physical activity has been evaluated is based on a comparing assumption with values of energy expenditure in a population with an average of 40 years. It is critical to conduct studies to examine the association between the level of intensity of physical activity with the subjective feeling of effort, to assess whether this comparison is applied to this age group. Methods: This is a cross sectional observational study with a sample of 39 participants, with a median age of 77.0 years (25th percentile: 76.0; 75th percentile: 80.0), with the minimum age 75 years and maximum age 86 years. The variables are the subjective feeling of physical effort and intensity of each activity. It was applied one protocol evaluation consisting of a questionnaire of sociodemographic characteristics, A journal of physical activities and Borg RPE 6-20 scale. Results: There is a significant negative association between age and total energy expenditure (rs = -0.365, p = 0.022) and a negative, moderate and significant association between age and average (rs = -0.521, p = 0.001) and maximum subjective feeling of exertion reported (rs = -0.465, p = 0.003). There was a significant positive association between the subjective feeling of daily maximum effort and total time spent on physical activity (r = 0.367 and p = 0.022) and total energy expenditure (r = 0.569, p <0.001). It was also found that the higher the total daily energy expenditure, the higher the average of the subjective sense of effort (r = 0.411, p = 0.009). There is a moderate and significant correlation (kappa = 0.475, p <0.001) between the sensation reported by the participant and the rank assigned to each activity by Compendium of Physical Activities (Ainsworth et al, 1993). However, there is a tendency to over-estimate the subjective feeling of effort, or underestimation of METs assigned to each activity Conclusion: Study results suggest a positive and significant association between the level of intensity of physical activity and the subjective feeling of exertion, within the same activity. Even though this association is moderated, this study suggests that the Compendium of Physical Activities rating doesn’t suit for individuals with 75 years old or more.

Equidistribution for higher-rank Abelian actions on Heisenberg nilmanifolds

2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 37C85, 37A17, 37A45; Secondary: 11K36, 11L07.

The automorphism group of a free-by-cyclic group in rank 2

Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

An Atkinson-Gini family of social evaluation functions

We investigate the properties of a family of social evaluation functions and inequality indices which merge the features of the family of Atkinson (1970) and S-Gini (Donaldson and Weymark (1980, 1983), Yitzhaki (1983) and Kakwani (1980)) indices. Income inequality aversion is captured by decreasing marginal utilities, and aversion to rank inequality is captured by rank-dependent ethical weights, thus providing an ethically-flexible dual basis for the assessment of inequality and equity. These ocial evaluation functions can be interpreted as average utility corrected for the illfare of relative deprivation. They can alternatively be understood as averages of altruistic well-being in a population. They moreover have a simple graphical interpretation.

Stable rank of leavitt path algebra

We characterize the values of the stable rank for Leavitt path algebras, by giving concrete criteria in terms of properties of the underlying graph.

Real rank zero algebras have the corona factorization property

The purpose of this short note is to prove that a stable separable C*-algebra with real rank zero has the so-called corona factorization property, that is, all the full multiplier projections are properly in finite. Enroute to our result, we consider conditions under which a real rank zero C*-algebra admits an injection of the compact operators (a question already considered in [21]).

Conjugacy of piecewise linear Lorenz map that expand on average

For piecewise linear Lorenz map that expand on average, we show that it admits a dichotomy: it is either periodic renormalizable or prime. As a result, such a map is conjugate to a ß-transformation.

A human MYBPC3 mutation appearing about 10 centuries ago results in a hypertrophic cardiomyopathy with delayed onset, moderate evolution but with a risk of sudden death.

BACKGROUND: Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a genetically heterogeneous disease. One specific mutation in the MYBPC3 gene is highly prevalent in center east of France giving an opportunity to define the clinical profile of this specific mutation. METHODS: HCM probands were screened for mutation in the MYH7, MYBPC3, TNNT2 and TNNI3 genes. Carriers of the MYBPC3 IVS20-2A>G mutation were genotyped with 8 microsatellites flanking this gene. The age of this MYBPC3 mutation was inferred with the software ESTIAGE. The age at first symptom, diagnosis, first complication, first severe complication and the rate of sudden death were compared between carriers of the IVS20-2 mutation (group A) and carriers of all other mutations (group B) using time to event curves and log rank test. RESULTS: Out of 107 HCM probands, 45 had a single heterozygous mutation in one of the 4 tested sarcomeric genes including 9 patients with the MYBPC3 IVS20-2A>G mutation. The IVS20-2 mutation in these 9 patients and their 25 mutation carrier relatives was embedded in a common haplotype defined after genotyping 4 polymorphic markers on each side of the MYBPC3 gene. This result supports the hypothesis of a common ancestor. Furthermore, we evaluated that the mutation occurred about 47 generations ago, approximately at the 10th century.We then compared the clinical profile of the IVS20-2 mutation carriers (group A) and the carriers of all other mutations (group B). Age at onset of symptoms was similar in the 34 group A cases and the 73 group B cases but group A cases were diagnosed on average 15 years later (log rank test p = 0.022). Age of first complication and first severe complication was delayed in group A vs group B cases but the prevalence of sudden death and age at death was similar in both groups. CONCLUSION: A founder mutation arising at about the 10th century in the MYBPC3 gene accounts for 8.4% of all HCM in center east France and results in a cardiomyopathy starting late and evolving slowly but with an apparent risk of sudden death similar to other sarcomeric mutations.