Portal Vein Embolization before Right Hepatectomy: Improved Results Using n-Butyl-Cyanoacrylate Compared to Microparticles Plus Coils.

BACKGROUND: There is currently no consensus in the literature on which embolic agent induces the greatest degree of liver hypertrophy after portal vein embolization (PVE). Only experimental results in a pig model have demonstrated an advantage of n-butyl-cyanoacrylate (NBCA) over 3 other embolic materials (hydrophilic gel, small and large polyvinyl alcohol particles) for PVE. Therefore, the aim of this human study was to retrospectively compare the results of PVE using NBCA with those using spherical microparticles plus coils. METHODS: A total of 34 patients underwent PVE using either NBCA (n = 20), or spherical microparticles plus coils (n = 14). PVE was decided according to preoperative volumetry on the basis of contrast-enhanced CT. Groups were compared for age, sex, volume of the left lobe before PVE and future remnant liver ratio (FRL) (volume of the left lobe/total liver volume - tumor volume). The primary end point was the increase in left lobe volume 1 month after PVE. Secondary end points were procedure complications and biological tolerance. RESULTS: Both groups were similar in terms of age, sex ratio, left lobe volume, and FRL before PVE. NBCA induced a greater increase in volume after PVE than did microparticles plus coils (respectively, +74 ± 69 % and +23 ± 14 %, p < 0.05). The amount of contrast medium used for the procedure was significantly larger when microparticles and coils rather than NBCA were used (respectively, 264 ± 43 ml and 162 ± 34 ml, p < 0.01). The rate of PVE complications as well as the biological tolerance was similar in both groups. CONCLUSION: NBCA seems more effective than spherical microparticles plus coils to induce left-lobe hypertrophy.

Yksityisrahoitteinen aluerakentaminen

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli tutkia yksityisrahoitusmallin soveltuvuutta julkisen sektorin palvelutuotantoon sekä kuvata yksityisrahoitteisen aluerakentamishankkeen sisältö ja liiketoimintaprosessin eteneminen hankkeen ideasta konsessiosopimuksen päättymiseen asti.Huoltosuhteen muuttumisen lisäksi muuttoliike kasvukeskuksiin lisää julkisen sektorin paineita tuottaa skandinaavisen hyvinvointiyhteiskuntamme vaatimusten mukaisia palveluita. Julkinen sektori onkin ajautunut tilanteeseen, jossa vaihtoehtoina ovat sen tuottamien palveluiden supistaminen ja maksullistaminen tai tuotantomuotojen kehittäminen.Työssä esitetty yksityisrahoitteinen aluerakentamismalli mahdollistaa laadukkaiden julkisten palveluiden tuottamisen oikea-aikaisesti ja kustannustehokkaasti. Tässä uudessa aluerakentamisen mallissa yksityinen sektori rahoittaisi, rakentaisi sekä operoisi ja ylläpitäisi määräajan perinteisesti kunnalle kuuluneita infrastruktuuri- ja palveluhankkeita.Tutkimuksen keskeinen tulos on yksityisrahoitteisen aluerakentamisen liiketoimintaprosessikaavio. Liiketoimintaprosessin kuvaus edesauttaa monimutkaisen prosessin ymmärtämistä ja mahdollistaa yksityisrahoitteisen aluerakentamismallin edelleen kehittämisen sekä sen markkinoinnin julkiselle ja yksityiselle sektorille. Liiketoimintaprosessikaaviossa kuvataan prosessin osapuolet ja prosessin eteneminen julkisen ja yksityisen sektorin tarpeesta ja YIT:n liikeideasta aina alueen rakentamiseen, operointiin, ylläpitoon ja palvelutuotannon siirtoon julkiselle ja yksityiselle sektorille

Dialysis, time and death: comparisons of two consecutive decades among patients treated at the same Brazilian dialysis center

The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced not only by well-known risk factors like age and comorbidity, but also by changes in dialysis technology and practices accumulated along time. We compared the survival curves, dialysis routines and some risk factors of two groups of patients admitted to a Brazilian maintenance hemodialysis program during two consecutive decades: March 1977 to December 1986 (group 1, N = 162) and January 1987 to June 1997 (group 2, N = 237). The median treatment time was 22 months (range 1-198). Survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank method. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to investigate the more important variables associated with outcome. The most important changes in dialysis routine and in patient care during the total period of observation were the progressive increase in the dose of dialysis delivered, the prohibition of potassium-free dialysate, the use of bicarbonate as a buffer and the upgrading of the dialysis equipment. There were no significant differences between the survival curves of the two groups. Survival rates at 1, 5 and 10 years were 84, 53 and 29%, respectively, for group 1 and 77, 42 and 21% for group 2. Patients in group 1 were younger (45.5 ± 15.2 vs 55.2 ± 15.9 years, P<0.001) and had a lower prevalence of diabetes (11.1 vs 27.4%, P<0.001) and of cardiovascular disease (9.3 vs 20.7%, P<0.001). According to the Cox multivariate model, only age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.05, P<0.001) and diabetes (HR 2.55, CI 1.82-3.58, P<0.001) were independent predictors of mortality for the whole group. Patients of group 2 had a lower prevalence of sudden death (19.1 vs 9.7%, P<0.001). After adjusting for age, diabetes and other mortality risk factors, the risk of death was 17% lower in group 2, although this difference was not statistically significant. We conclude that the negative effects of advanced age and of higher frequency of comorbidity on the survival of group 2 patients were probably offset by improvements in patient care and in the quality and dose of dialysis delivered, so that the survival curves did not undergo significant changes along time.

Association of HDL cholesterol and triglycerides with mortality in patients with heart failure

It has been demonstrated that there is an association between serum lipoproteins and survival rate in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy, as well as in patients with non-ischemic causes of heart failure. We tested the hypothesis of an association between serum lipoprotein levels and prognosis in a cohort of outpatients with heart failure, including Chagas' heart disease. The lipid profile of 833 outpatients with heart failure in functional classes III and IV of the New York Heart Association, with a mean age of 46.9 ± 10.6 years, 655 (78.6%) men and 178 (21.4%) women, was studied from April 1991 to June 2003. The survival rate was estimated by the Kaplan-Meyer's method and the Cox proportional hazards models. Etiology of heart failure was ischemic cardiomyopathy in 171 (21%) patients, Chagas' heart disease in 144 (17%), hypertensive cardiomyopathy in 136 (16%), and other etiologies in 83 (10%). In 299 (36%) patients, heart failure was ascribed to idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Variables significantly associated with mortality were age (hazard ratio, HR = 1.02; 95%CI = 1.01-1.03; P = 0.0074), male gender (HR = 1.77; 95%CI = 1.2-2.62; P = 0.004), idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (HR = 1.81; 95%CI = 1.16-2.82; P = 0.0085), serum triglycerides (HR = 0.97; 95%CI = 0.96-0.98; P < 0.0001), and HDL cholesterol (HR = 0.99; 95%CI = 0.99-1.0; P = 0.0280). Therefore, higher serum HDL cholesterol and higher serum triglycerides were associated with lower mortality in this cohort of outpatients with heart failure.

Assessment of a five-year survival on hemodialysis in Brazil: a cohort of 3,082 incident patients

Brazil has the third largest contingent of patients on maintenance hemodialysis (HD) worldwide. However, little is known regarding survival rate and predictors of mortality risk in that population, which are the purposes of this study. A total of 3,082 patients incident on HD, from 2000 to 2004, at 25 dialysis facilities distributed among 7 out of 26 states of Brazil were followed-up until 2009. Patients were 52 ± 16 years-old, 57.8% men, and 20.4%, diabetics. The primary outcome was all causes of mortality. Data were censored at five years of follow-up. The global five-year survival rate was 58.2%. In the Cox proportional model, variables associated with risk of death were: age (hazard ratio - HR = 1.44 per decade, p < 0.0001), diabetes (HR = 1.51, p < 0.0001), serum albumin (HR = 0.76 per g/dL, p = 0.001), creatinine (HR = 0.92 per mg/dL, p < 0.0001), and phosphorus (HR = 1.06 per mg/dL, p = 0.04). The present results show that the mortality rate on HD in this Brazilian cohort was relatively low, but the population is younger and with a lower prevalence of diabetes than the ones reported for developed countries.

Tuottavuuden, vaikuttavuuden ja kustannusvaikuttavuuden arviointi alueellisesti integroiduissa sosiaali- ja terveyspalveluissa – palvelujen käyttöön perustuva malli ja esimerkkejä

Yli puolet kuntien vuosibudjeteista kuluu sosiaali- ja terveyspalveluihin. Jatkossa väestö ikääntyy ja huoltosuhteen muutos tulee niukentamaan kuntien resursseja ja lisäämään palvelujen tarvetta. Näin ollen vaikuttavien ja kustannustehokkaiden ratkaisumallien luominen on ensiarvoisen tärkeää. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on rakentaa malli, jota voidaan hyödyntää tuottavuuden, vaikuttavuuden ja kustannusvaikuttavuuden jatkuvassa seurannassa alueellisissa sosiaali- ja terveyspalveluissa ja testata mallia esimerkkitapauksilla. Pääpaino on vaikuttavuudessa ja kustannusvaikuttavuudessa. Aiemman tutkimuksen perusteella tuottavuuden, vaikuttavuuden ja kustannusvaikuttavuuden mittaamiseen on useita lähestymistapoja. Tässä tutkimuksessa tuottavuutta arvioidaan panosten ja tuotosten suhteella, vaikuttavuutta palvelujen käytöllä ja kustannusvaikuttavuutta palvelujen käytön kustannuksilla. Kirjallisuudesta nousee esille selkeä tarve yli perinteisten organisaatiorajojen menevälle jatkuvalle vaikuttavuuden seurannalle. Aikaisempi tutkimus kattaa kertaluontoisia selvityksiä, joissa usein mittarit ovat operatiivisella tasolla, toimialasidonnaisia tai vaikeasti mitattavissa. Tutkimus on suunnittelutiedettä. Tutkimuksen lopputuloksena syntyy sosiaali- ja terveyspalvelujen käyttömalli (sote-palvelujen käyttömalli), jota varten toteutetaan tietokanta ja raportointikerros. Sote-palvelujen käyttömallia testataan tässä tutkimuksessa kolmella eri organisaatioyksiköllä ja asiakasryhmällä, jotka ovat strategisesti merkittäviä tutkittavalle organisaatiolle ja asiakasryhmiin on kohdennettu selkeä kehittämistoimenpide (kuntoutukseen panostaminen ja vammaisten sekä vanhusten laitoshoidon purku). Sote-palvelujen käyttömalli tuottaa tietoa kehittämistoimenpiteiden tuottavuudesta, vaikuttavuudesta ja kustannusvaikuttavuudesta. Sote-palvelujen käyttömallin todetaan soveltuvan tutkittavaan organisaatioon ja sote-palvelujen käyttömalli on sielläjatkuvassa käytössä. Sote-palvelujen käyttömalli on siirrettävissä myös muihin soteorganisaatioihin ja laajennettavissa myös muihin sosiaali- ja terveyspalveluihin ja niitä lähellä oleviin palveluihin.

Individual and social determinants of multiple chronic disease behavioural risk factors in Canadian children and adolescents

Contexte: Les facteurs de risque comportementaux, notamment l’inactivité physique, le comportement sédentaire, le tabagisme, la consommation d’alcool et le surpoids sont les principales causes modifiables de maladies chroniques telles que le cancer, les maladies cardiovasculaires et le diabète. Ces facteurs de risque se manifestent également de façon concomitante chez l’individu et entraînent des risques accrus de morbidité et de mortalité. Bien que les facteurs de risque comportementaux aient été largement étudiés, la distribution, les patrons d’agrégation et les déterminants de multiples facteurs de risque comportementaux sont peu connus, surtout chez les enfants et les adolescents. Objectifs: Cette thèse vise 1) à décrire la prévalence et les patrons d’agrégation de multiples facteurs de risque comportementaux des maladies chroniques chez les enfants et adolescents canadiens; 2) à explorer les corrélats individuels, sociaux et scolaires de multiples facteurs de risque comportementaux chez les enfants et adolescents canadiens; et 3) à évaluer, selon le modèle conceptuel de l’étude, l’influence longitudinale d’un ensemble de variables distales (c’est-à-dire des variables situées à une distance intermédiaire des comportements à risque) de type individuel (estime de soi, sentiment de réussite), social (relations sociales, comportements des parents/pairs) et scolaire (engagement collectif à la réussite, compréhension des règles), ainsi que de variables ultimes (c’est-à-dire des variables situées à une distance éloignée des comportements à risque) de type individuel (traits de personnalité, caractéristiques démographiques), social (caractéristiques socio-économiques des parents) et scolaire (type d’école, environnement favorable, climat disciplinaire) sur le taux d’occurrence de multiples facteurs de risque comportementaux chez les enfants et adolescents canadiens. Méthodes: Des données transversales (n = 4724) à partir du cycle 4 (2000-2001) de l’Enquête longitudinale nationale sur les enfants et les jeunes (ELNEJ) ont été utilisées pour décrire la prévalence et les patrons d’agrégation de multiples facteurs de risque comportementaux chez les jeunes canadiens âgés de 10-17 ans. L’agrégation des facteurs de risque a été examinée en utilisant une méthode du ratio de cas observés sur les cas attendus. La régression logistique ordinale a été utilisée pour explorer les corrélats de multiples facteurs de risque comportementaux dans un échantillon transversal (n = 1747) de jeunes canadiens âgés de 10-15 ans du cycle 4 (2000-2001) de l’ELNEJ. Des données prospectives (n = 1135) à partir des cycle 4 (2000-2001), cycle 5 (2002-2003) et cycle 6 (2004-2005) de l’ELNEJ ont été utilisées pour évaluer l’influence longitudinale des variables distales et ultimes (tel que décrit ci-haut dans les objectifs) sur le taux d’occurrence de multiples facteurs de risque comportementaux chez les jeunes canadiens âgés de 10-15 ans; cette analyse a été effectuée à l’aide des modèles de Poisson longitudinaux. Résultats: Soixante-cinq pour cent des jeunes canadiens ont rapporté avoir deux ou plus de facteurs de risque comportementaux, comparativement à seulement 10% des jeunes avec aucun facteur de risque. Les facteurs de risque comportementaux se sont agrégés en de multiples combinaisons. Plus précisément, l’occurrence simultanée des cinq facteurs de risque était 120% plus élevée chez les garçons (ratio observé/attendu (O/E) = 2.20, intervalle de confiance (IC) 95%: 1.31-3.09) et 94% plus élevée chez les filles (ratio O/E = 1.94, IC 95%: 1.24-2.64) qu’attendu. L’âge (rapport de cotes (RC) = 1.95, IC 95%: 1.21-3.13), ayant un parent fumeur (RC = 1.49, IC 95%: 1.09-2.03), ayant rapporté que la majorité/tous de ses pairs consommaient du tabac (RC = 7.31, IC 95%: 4.00-13.35) ou buvaient de l’alcool (RC = 3.77, IC 95%: 2.18-6.53), et vivant dans une famille monoparentale (RC = 1.94, IC 95%: 1.31-2.88) ont été positivement associés aux multiples comportements à risque. Les jeunes ayant une forte estime de soi (RC = 0.92, IC 95%: 0.85-0.99) ainsi que les jeunes dont un des parents avait un niveau d’éducation postsecondaire (RC = 0.58, IC 95%: 0.41-0.82) étaient moins susceptibles d’avoir de multiples facteurs de risque comportementaux. Enfin, les variables de type social distal (tabagisme des parents et des pairs, consommation d’alcool par les pairs) (Log du rapport de vraisemblance (LLR) = 187.86, degrés de liberté = 8, P < 0,001) et individuel distal (estime de soi) (LLR = 76.94, degrés de liberté = 4, P < 0,001) ont significativement influencé le taux d’occurrence de multiples facteurs de risque comportementaux. Les variables de type individuel ultime (âge, sexe, anxiété) et social ultime (niveau d’éducation du parent, revenu du ménage, structure de la famille) ont eu une influence moins prononcée sur le taux de cooccurrence des facteurs de risque comportementaux chez les jeunes. Conclusion: Les résultats suggèrent que les interventions de santé publique devraient principalement cibler les déterminants de type individuel distal (tel que l’estime de soi) ainsi que social distal (tels que le tabagisme des parents et des pairs et la consommation d’alcool par les pairs) pour prévenir et/ou réduire l’occurrence de multiples facteurs de risque comportementaux chez les enfants et les adolescents. Cependant, puisque les variables de type distal (telles que les caractéristiques psychosociales des jeunes et comportements des parents/pairs) peuvent être influencées par des variables de type ultime (telles que les caractéristiques démographiques et socioéconomiques), les programmes et politiques de prévention devraient également viser à améliorer les conditions socioéconomiques des jeunes, particulièrement celles des enfants et des adolescents des familles les plus démunies.

Smallholder farmers’ access to credit in the Amathole District Municipality, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Provision of credit has being identified as an important instrument for improving the welfare of smallholder farmers directly and for enhancing productive capacity through financing investment by the farmers in their human and physical capital. This study investigated the individual and household characteristics that influence credit market access in Amathole District Municipality, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa, using a cross sectional data from smallholder farmers’ household survey. The aim is to provide a better understanding of the households’ level socio-economic characteristics, not only because they influence household’s demand for credit but also due to the fact that potential lenders are most likely to base their assessment of borrowers’ creditworthiness on such characteristics. The results of the logistic regression suggest that credit market access was significantly influenced by variables such as gender, education, households’ income, value of assets, savings, dependency ratio, repayment capacity and social capital. Implications for rural credit delivery are discussed.

A global climatology of wind–wave interaction

Generally, ocean waves are thought to act as a drag on the surface wind so that momentum is transferred downwards, from the atmosphere into the waves. Recent observations have suggested that when long wavelength waves, characteristic of remotely generated swell, propagate faster than the surface wind momentum can also be transferred upwards. This upward momentum transfer acts to accelerate the near-surface wind, resulting in a low-level wave-driven wind jet. Previous studies have suggested that the sign reversal of the momentum flux is well predicted by the inverse wave age, the ratio of the surface wind speed to the speed of the waves at the peak of the spectrum. ECMWF ERA-40 data has been used here to calculate the global distribution of the inverse wave age to determine whether there are regions of the ocean that are usually in the wind-driven wave regime and others that are generally in the wave-driven wind regime. The wind-driven wave regime is found to occur most often in the mid-latitude storm tracks where wind speeds are generally high. The wave-driven wind regime is found to be prevalent in the tropics where wind speeds are generally light and swell can propagate from storms at higher latitudes. The inverse wave age is also a useful indicator of the degree of coupling between the local wind and wave fields. The climatologies presented emphasise the non-equilibrium that exists between the local wind and wave fields and highlight the importance of swell in the global oceans.

Sustaining growth and profits in a rapidly changing world - a Chinese perspective

The aim of this paper is to stimulate discussion about how Chinese construction and professional service companies can best equip themselves and grow sustainably and profitably in a rapidly changing world. It identifies some of the issues and risks faced by Chinese construction and professional service companies operating domestically and overseas. China has experienced a period of rapid economic growth which is also reflected in the annual construction output. China’s population is the largest in the world, but the demographic profile is changing with an ageing population and a changing dependency ratio. The population is urbanising at a fast rate, putting pressure on housing, and infrastructure. The government must plan for the future and the construction sector must be involved in that planning. The paper considers the drivers shaping China’s construction market, how companies are responding by embracing change and internationalising by seeking to exploit their skills overseas. The drivers are globalisation, urbanisation, demographic change, sustainability, safety and health, and the evolution of professional services as a core part of construction activity. Clients/owners are driving change by demanding more certainty and more sustainable projects.

Prevalence and risk factors of radiographic vertebral fracture in Brazilian community-dwelling elderly

The prevalence and risk factors of radiographic vertebral fracture were determined among Brazilian community-dwelling elderly. Vertebral fractures were a common condition in this elderly population, and lower hip bone mineral density was a significant risk factor for vertebral fractures in both genders. The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence of radiographic vertebral fracture and investigate factors associated with this condition in Brazilian community-dwelling elderly. This cross-sectional study included 943 elderly subjects (561 women and 382 men) living in So Paulo, Brazil. Thoracic and lumbar spine radiographs were obtained, and vertebral fractures were evaluated using Genant`s semiquantitative method. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry, and bone biochemical markers were also evaluated. Female and male subjects were analyzed independently, and each gender was divided into two groups based on whether vertebral fractures were present. The prevalence of vertebral fracture was 27.5% (95% CI 23.8-31.1) in women and 31.8% in men (95% CI 27.1-36.5) (P = 0.116). Cox regression analyses using variables that were significant in the univariate analysis showed that age (prevalence ratio = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06; p = 0.019) and total femur BMD (PR = 0.27, 95% CI 0.08-0.98; p = 0.048) were independent factors in predicting vertebral fracture for the female group. In the male group, Cox regression analyses demonstrated that femoral neck BMD (PR = 0.26, 95% CI 0.07-0.98; p = 0.046) was an independent parameter in predicting vertebral fractures. Our results suggest that radiographic vertebral fractures are common in Brazilian community-dwelling elderly and that a low hip BMD was an important risk factor for this condition in both genders. Age was also significantly correlated with the presence of vertebral fractures in women.

Performance and ruminal morphologic characteristics of Saanen kids fed ground, pelleted or extruded total ration

The aim of the present study was to determine feed intake and average weight gain and to evaluate the ruminal morphologic characteristics of Saanen kids slaughtered at 30, 45 and 60 days of age, according to a completely randomized design. Thirty-six non-castrated male Saanen kids were fed ground total ration, pelleted total ration, or extruded total ration. Feed intake and refusals were controlled daily and the animals were weighed at birth and then once a week. Newborn kids received a milk replacer and were weaned at 45 days. Immediately after slaughter, the animals were eviscerated, the entire digestive apparatus was removed from the carcass. The reticulo-rumen was separated, emptied, washed and weighed. Samples were collected from the dorsal sac, pillar area and ventral sac of the rumen, fixed for about 24h in Bouin's solution, dehydrated, embedded in Histosec and cut into 5 mu m sections. Results showed that dry matter intake (DMI) at weaning and post-weaning and weight gain were higher (P < 0.05) in animals that received the pelleted total ration. The weight of the reticulo-rumen accompanied body development and was heavier in these animals. Histologically, after weaning ruminal papillae were more developed in animals that received pelleted total ration. Length of papillae increased with increase of age. The ratio of papillary height to papillary width increased with age in the ventral sac and until weaning (P > 0.05). We conclude that the pelleting process of the total ration favored increased intake, with a 46.7% increase in weight gain and increase in rumen weight and papillae length, suggesting that best results are obtained with this processing. In general, no difference was observed between the results obtained with extruded and ground total ration, although animals fed extruded total ration showed an increase in rumen weight and papillae width. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Risk factors for Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia in nonventilated adults

Although most recent publications focus on Ventilator-associated Pneumonia, Non-Ventilator-associated Hospital-acquired pneumonia (NVHAP) is still worrisome. We studied risk factors for NVHAP among patients admitted to a small teaching hospital. Sixty-six NVHAP case patients and 66 controls admitted to the hospital from November 2005 through November 2006 were enrolled in a case-control study. Variables under investigation included: demographic characteristics, comorbidities, procedures, invasive devices and use of medications (Sedatives, Antacids, Steroids and Antimicrobials). Univariate and multivariable analysis (hierarchical models of logistic regression) were performed. The incidence of NVHAP in our hospital was 0.68% (1.02 per 1,000 patients-day). Results from multivariable analysis identified risk factors for NVHAP: age (Odds Ratio[OR]=1.03, 95% Confidence Interval[CI]=1.01-1.05, p=0.002), use of Antacids (OR=5.29, 95%CI=1.89-4.79, p=0.001) and Central Nervous System disease (OR=3.13, 95%CI=1.24-7.93, p=0.02). Although our findings are coherent with previous reports, the association of Antacids with NVHAP recalls a controversial issue in the physiopathology of Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia, with possible implications for preventive strategies.

Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Grading and staging chronic hepatitis C and its relation to genotypes and epidemiological factors in brazilian blood donors

Progression of chronic hepatitis C is known to be associated with some factors, but influence of HCV genotypes is still controversial. Association between HCV genotypes and other risk factors was examined to determine which factors are associated with progression of infection. One hundred consecutive anti-HCV positive volunteer blood donors were evaluated for several risk factors, examined for HCV genotypes, and submitted to hepatic biopsy and biochemical exams.HCV genotyping were carried out in 89 patients and hepatic biopsy in 78. Transmission routes were found to be illicit intravenous drug use (26%), Gluconergan® use in a non-safe manner (48%) and blood transfusion (15%). HCV genotype was 1 in 45%, 3 in 40%, and it was not associated with the stage of fibrosis or with inflammatory activity. There was no significant association of factors related to infection, chronic alcohol use, or duration of illness, with progression of the lesion. There was a significant association of aminotransferase levels and the fibrosis stage. Univariate analysis showed that the age at contamination, patient's age, GT-gamma, and aminotransferase levels over three times the upper normal limits, were associated with fibrosis stages 2 to 4. Multivariate analysis detected age (odds ratio=1.19), and GT-gamma (odds ratio=2.02) as independent factors.