Human mobility patterns at the smallest scales

We present a study on human mobility at small spatial scales. Differently from large scale mobility, recently studied through dollar-bill tracking and mobile phone data sets within one big country or continent, we report Brownian features of human mobility at smaller scales. In particular, the scaling exponents found at the smallest scales is typically close to one-half, differently from the larger values for the exponent characterizing mobility at larger scales. We carefully analyze 12-month data of the Eduroam database within the Portuguese university of Minho. A full procedure is introduced with the aim of properly characterizing the human mobility within the network of access points composing the wireless system of the university. In particular, measures of flux are introduced for estimating a distance between access points. This distance is typically non-Euclidean, since the spatial constraints at such small scales distort the continuum space on which human mobility occurs. Since two different ex- ponents are found depending on the scale human motion takes place, we raise the question at which scale the transition from Brownian to non-Brownian motion takes place. In this context, we discuss how the numerical approach can be extended to larger scales, using the full Eduroam in Europe and in Asia, for uncovering the transi- tion between both dynamical regimes.

Maize yield and rainfall on different spatial and temporal scales in Southern Brazil

This study aimed to establish relationships between maize yield and rainfall on different temporal and spatial scales, in order to provide a basis for crop monitoring and modelling. A 16-year series of maize yield and daily rainfall from 11 municipalities and micro-regions of Rio Grande do Sul State was used. Correlation and regression analyses were used to determine associations between crop yield and rainfall for the entire crop cycle, from tasseling to 30 days after, and from 5 days before tasseling to 40 days after. Close relationships between maize yield and rainfall were found, particularly during the reproductive period (45-day period comprising the flowering and grain filling). Relationships were closer on a regional scale than at smaller scales. Implications of the crop-rainfall relationships for crop modelling are discussed.

Environmental factors, spatial variation, and specific requirements of Chironomidae in Mediterranean reference streams

Chironomidae spatial distribution was investigated at 63 near-pristine sites in 22 catchments of the Iberian Mediterranean coast. We used partial redundancy analysis to study Chironomidae community responses to a number of environmental factors acting at several spatial scales. The percentage of variation explained by local factors (23.3%) was higher than that explained by geographical (8.5%) or regional factors(8%). Catchment area, longitude, pH, % siliceous rocks in the catchment, and altitude were the best predictors of Chironomidae assemblages. We used a k-means cluster analysis to classified sites into 3 major groups based on Chironomidae assemblages. These groups were explained mainly by longitudinal zonation and geographical position, and were defined as 1) siliceous headwater streams, 2) mid-altitude streams with small catchment areas, and 3) medium-sized calcareous streams. Distinct species assemblages with associated indicator taxa were established for each stream category using IndVal analysis. Species responses to previously identified key environmental variables were determined, and optima and tolerances were established by weighted average regression. Distinct ecological requirements were observed among genera and among species of the same genus. Some genera were restricted to headwater systems (e.g., Diamesa), whereas others (e.g., Eukiefferiella) had wider ecological preferences but with distinct distributions among congenerics. In the present period of climate change, optima and tolerances of species might be a useful tool to predict responses of different species to changes in significant environmental variables, such as temperature and hydrology.

Spatial variations at different observational scales and the seasonal distributions of stream macroalgae in a Brazilian subtropical region

We examined the relationships between environmental variations in lotic ecosystems with the seasonal dynamics of macroalgae communities at different spatial scales: drainage basin of two rivers (Rio das Pedras and Rio Marrecas), shading (open and shaded stream segments), mesohabitat (riffles and pools), and microhabitats. Data collections were made on a monthly basis between January and December/2007. A total of 16 taxa were encountered (13 species and 3 vegetative groups). All of the biotic parameters (richness, abundance, diversity, equitability, and dominance) were found to be highly variable at all of the spatial scales evaluated. On the other hand, abiotic variables demonstrated differences only at mesohabitat (in terms of current velocity) and shaded habitat (in terms of irradiance) scales. The seasonality of the macroalgae community structure was strongly influenced by microhabitat variables (current velocity, substrate H', and irradiance), demonstrating their importance over time and at different scales. Regional variables (temperature, oxygen saturation, specific conductance, pH, and turbidity) were found to have little influence on the temporal dynamics of the macroalgae communities evaluated.

Spatial Aggregation of Forest Songbird Territories and Possible Implications for Area Sensitivity

Habitat area requirements of forest songbirds vary greatly among species, but the causes of this variation are not well understood. Large area requirements could result from advantages for certain species when settling their territories near those of conspecifics. This phenomenon would result in spatial aggregations much larger than single territories. Species that aggregate their territories could show reduced population viability in highly fragmented forests, since remnant patches may remain unoccupied if they are too small to accommodate several territories. The objectives of this study were twofold: (1) to seek evidence of territory clusters of forest birds at various spatial scales, lags of 250-550 m, before and after controlling for habitat spatial patterns; and (2) to measure the relationship between spatial autocorrelation and apparent landscape sensitivity for these species. In analyses that ignored spatial variation of vegetation within remnant forest patches, nine of the 17 species studied significantly aggregated their territories within patches. After controlling for forest vegetation, the locations of eight out of 17 species remained significantly clustered. The aggregative pattern that we observed may, thus, be indicative of a widespread phenomenon in songbird populations. Furthermore, there was a tendency for species associated with higher forest cover to be more spatially aggregated [ERRATUM].

Maize yield and rainfall on different spatial and temporal scales in Southern Brazil

This study aimed to establish relationships between maize yield and rainfall on different temporal and spatial scales, in order to provide a basis for crop monitoring and modelling. A 16-year series of maize yield and daily rainfall from 11 municipalities and micro-regions of Rio Grande do Sul State was used. Correlation and regression analyses were used to determine associations between crop yield and rainfall for the entire crop cycle, from tasseling to 30 days after, and from 5 days before tasseling to 40 days after. Close relationships between maize yield and rainfall were found, particularly during the reproductive period (45-day period comprising the flowering and grain filling). Relationships were closer on a regional scale than at smaller scales. Implications of the crop-rainfall relationships for crop modelling are discussed.

Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the working spatial scale

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.

A spatial view of ensemble spread in convection permitting ensembles

With movement toward kilometer-scale ensembles, new techniques are needed for their characterization. A new methodology is presented for detailed spatial ensemble characterization using the fractions skill score (FSS). To evaluate spatial forecast differences, the average and standard deviation are taken of the FSS calculated over all ensemble member–member pairs at different scales and lead times. These methods were found to give important information about the ensemble behavior allowing the identification of useful spatial scales, spinup times for the model, and upscale growth of errors and forecast differences. The ensemble spread was found to be highly dependent on the spatial scales considered and the threshold applied to the field. High thresholds picked out localized and intense values that gave large temporal variability in ensemble spread: local processes and undersampling dominate for these thresholds. For lower thresholds the ensemble spread increases with time as differences between the ensemble members upscale. Two convective cases were investigated based on the Met Office United Model run at 2.2-km resolution. Different ensemble types were considered: ensembles produced using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) and an ensemble produced using different model physics configurations. Comparison of the MOGREPS and multiphysics ensembles demonstrated the utility of spatial ensemble evaluation techniques for assessing the impact of different perturbation strategies and the need for assessing spread at different, believable, spatial scales.

Spatial structuring of arbuscular mycorrhizal communities in benchmark and modified temperate eucalypt woodlands

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are crucial to the functioning of the plant–soil system, but little is known about the spatial structuring of AMF communities across landscapes modified by agriculture. AMF community composition was characterized across four sites in the highly cleared south-western Australian wheatbelt that were originally dominated by forb-rich eucalypt woodlands. Environmentally induced spatial structuring in AMF composition was examined at four scales: the regional scale associated with location, the site scale associated with past management (benchmark woodlands with no agricultural management history, livestock grazing, recent revegetation), the patch scale associated with trees and canopy gaps, and the fine scale associated with the herbaceous plant species beneath which soils were sourced. Field-collected soils were cultured in trap pots; then, AMF composition was determined by identifying spores and through ITS1 sequencing. Structuring was strongest at site scales, where composition was strongly related to prior management and associated changes in soil phosphorus. The two fields were dominated by the genera Funneliformis and Paraglomus, with little convergence back to woodland composition after revegetation. The two benchmark woodlands were characterized by Ambispora gerdemannii and taxa from Gigasporaceae. Their AMF communities were strongly structured at patch scales associated with trees and gaps, in turn most strongly related to soil N. By contrast, there were few patterns at fine scales related to different herbaceous plant species, or at regional scales associated with the 175 km distance between benchmark woodlands. Important areas for future investigation are to identify the circumstances in which recolonization by woodland AMF may be limited by fungal propagule availability, reduced plant diversity and/or altered chemistry in agricultural soils.

Spatial variations at different observational scales and the seasonal distributions of stream macroalgae in a Brazilian subtropical region

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Temporal and Spatial Scaling of the Genetic Structure of a Vector-Borne Plant Pathogen

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Geochemical evidence of the 8.2 ka event and other Holocene environmental changes recorded in paleolagoon sediments, southeastern Brazil

The paleoclimatic record of Jureia Paleolagoon, coastal southeastem Brazil, includes cyclic and gradual changes with different intensities and frequencies through geological time, and it is controlled by astronomical, geophysical, and geological phenomena. These variations are not due to one single cause, but they result from the interaction of several factors, which act at different temporal and spatial scales. Here, we describe paleoenvironmental evidence regarding climatic and sea level changes from the last 9400 cal yr BP at the Jureia Paleolagoon - one of the main groups of protected South Atlantic ecosystems. Geochemical evidences were used to identify anomalies from multi-proxy analyses of a paleolagoon sediment core. The anomalies of centennial scale were correlated to climate and transgression-regression cycles from the Holocene period. Decadal scale anomalous oscillations in the Quaternary paleolagoon sediments occur between 9400 and 7500 cal yr BP, correlated with long- and short-term natural events, which generated high sedimentation rates, mainly between 8385 and 8375 cal yr BP (10 cm/yr). Our results suggest that a modem-day short-duration North Atlantic climatic event, such as the 82 ka event, could affect the environmental equilibrium in South America and intensify the South American Summer Monsoon. (C) 2011 University of Washington. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeled Interaction of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko with the Solar Wind Inside 2 AU

Periodic comets move around the Sun on elliptical orbits. As such comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (hereafter 67P) spends a portion of time in the inner solar system where it is exposed to increased solar insolation. Therefore given the change in heliocentric distance, in case of 67P from aphelion at 5.68 AU to perihelion at ~1.24 AU, the comet’s activity—the production of neutral gas and dust—undergoes significant variations. As a consequence, during the inbound portion, the mass loading of the solar wind increases and extends to larger spatial scales. This paper investigates how this interaction changes the character of the plasma environment of the comet by means of multifluid MHD simulations. The multifluid MHD model is capable of separating the dynamics of the solar wind ions and the pick-up ions created through photoionization and electron impact ionization in the coma of the comet. We show how two of the major boundaries, the bow shock and the diamagnetic cavity, form and develop as the comet moves through the inner solar system. Likewise for 67P, although most likely shifted back in time with respect to perihelion passage, this process is reversed on the outbound portion of the orbit. The presented model herein is able to reproduce some of the key features previously only accessible to particle-based models that take full account of the ions’ gyration. The results shown herein are in decent agreement to these hybrid-type kinetic simulations.