994 resultados para 1 Sigma error


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本文利用“最小响应法”给出了 N≥2阶无静差采样控制系统的设计公式.作者指出:对于某类闭环控制系统,在给定阶跃响应最大超调量σ_(max)的条件下,可以找出最佳比值T/T_(T 为系统的采样周期,T_(?)为对象的不便克服的等效小时间常数之和),使系统获得相应阶最大误差系数 K_(N+1),从而可使系统达到快速精密的控制指标。为了在工程设计中应用方便,文中还给出了二至六阶无静差的σ_(max),T/T_(?),K_(N+1)T(?)最佳参数组,使得这类闭环控制系统的设计最佳化和简易化.

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The GEOTRACES Intermediate Data Product 2014 (IDP2014) is the first publicly available data product of the international GEOTRACES programme, and contains data measured and quality controlled before the end of 2013. It consists of two parts: (1) a compilation of digital data for more than 200 trace elements and isotopes (TEls) as well as classical hydrographic parameters, and (2) the eGEOTRACES Electronic Atlas providing a strongly inter-linked on-line atlas including more than 300 section plots and 90 animated 3D scenes. The IDP2014 covers the Atlantic, Arctic, and Indian oceans, exhibiting highest data density in the Atlantic. The TEI data in the IDP2014 are quality controlled by careful assessment of intercalibration results and multi-laboratory data comparisons at cross-over stations. The digital data are provided in several formats, including ASCII spreadsheet, Excel spreadsheet, netCDF, and Ocean Data View collection. In addition to the actual data values the IDP2014 also contains data quality flags and 1-sigma data error values where available. Quality flags and error values are useful for data filtering. Metadata about data originators, analytical methods and original publications related to the data are linked to the data in an easily accessible way. The eGEOTRACES Electronic Atlas is the visual representation of the IDP2014 data providing section plots and a new kind of animated 3D scenes. The basin-wide 3D scenes allow for viewing of data from many cruises at the same time, thereby providing quick overviews of large-scale tracer distributions. In addition, the 3D scenes provide geographical and bathymetric context that is crucial for the interpretation and assessment of observed tracer plumes, as well as for making inferences about controlling processes.

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Analizar el error 'rectificación'en la lectura oral teniendo en cuentas tres variables: niveles, pruebas y sexo; por separado e interrelacionadas cuando ha sido posible. 411 alumnos: 130 alumnos de segundo nivel, 133 de tercer nivel y 148 de cuarto nivel, pertenecientes a 30 centros de Ávila, León, Madrid, Zamora, Valladolid, Salamanca y Burgos. Trabajo surgido a raíz de la multitud de estudios sobre la dislexia han surgido diversas denominaciones y causas de la misma que están expuestas en la primer parte del trabajo. La segunda parte refleja una larga investigación: la base de la misma ha sido el T.A.L.E. ( Test de lecto-escritura) y su aplicación en una determinada muestra de individuos, de donde han sido extraídos los datos necesarios para analizar el error 'rectificación' (uno de los baremados en la prueba de lectura oral de que consta el TALE; por lo tanto la segunda parte de este trabajo ha sido puramente práctica. 1) El error 'rectificación' es en relación a los demás, medianamente frecuente. Es preciso señalar que la frecuencia sólo se puede observar en relación a cada prueba; pues cada una costa de un número determinado de errores. 2) En general, el error 'retificación' es bastante más frecuente en los hombres que en las mujeres. 3) No se da un aumento de frecuencia, a medida que se avanza de nivel, tanto en la prueba de las sílabas cómo en las palabras; la de texto no puede ser incluida en esta comparación puesto que cada curso tiene un texto concreto. 4) En la prueba de sílabas, y en los hombres, no existe una disminución progresiva de fallos respecto al aumento de nivel; y en las mujeres tampoco. 5) En la prueba de palabras y en los hombres si se da una disminución progresiva de porcentajes a medida que se avanza de nivel; no sucediendo lo mismo en las mujeres. 6) Las palabras de mayor porcentaje, sin distinción de sexo, son: gitano, corona, clavel, rastapi, opasto y anglicano.

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This contribution describes the optimization of chlorine extraction from silicate samples by pyrohydrolysis prior to the precise determination of Cl stable-isotope compositions (637 Cl) by gas source, dual inlet Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry (IRMS) on CH(3)Clg. The complete method was checked on three international reference materials for Cl-content and two laboratory glass standards. Whole procedure blanks are lower than 0. 5 mu mol, corresponding to less than 10 wt.% of most of the sample chloride analysed. In the absence of international chlorine isotope rock, we report here Cl extracted compared to accepted Cl contents and reproducibilities on Cl and delta Cl-37 measurements for the standard rocks. After extraction, the Cl contents of the three international references compared within error with the accepted values (mean yield = 94 +/-10%) with reproducibilities better than 12% (10). The laboratory glass standards - andesite SO100DS92 and phonolite S9(2) - were used specifically to test the effect of chloride amount on the measurements. They gave Cl extraction yields of 100 +/-6% (1 sigma-; n = 15) and 105 +/- 8% (1 sigma-; n = 7), respectively, with delta Cl-37 values of -0.51 0.14%o and -0.39 0.17%o (1g). In summary, for silicate samples with Cl contents between 39 and 9042 ppm, the Pyrohydrolysis/HPLC method leads to overall CI extraction yields of 100 8%, reproducibilities on Cl contents of 7% and on delta Cl-37 measurements of 0.12%o (all 1 sigma). The method was further applied to ten silicate rocks of various mineralogy and chemistry (meteorite, fresh MORB glasses, altered basalts and setpentinized peridotites) chosen for their large range of Cl contents (70-2156 ppm) and their geological significance. delta Cl-37 values range between -2.33 and -0.50%o. These strictly negative values contrast with the large range and mainly positive values previously reported for comparable silicate samples and shown here to be affected by analytical problems. Thus we propose a preliminary, revised terrestrial CI cycle, mainly dominated by negative and zero delta Cl-37 values. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Simulations of ozone loss rates using a three-dimensional chemical transport model and a box model during recent Antarctic and Arctic winters are compared with experimental loss rates. The study focused on the Antarctic winter 2003, during which the first Antarctic Match campaign was organized, and on Arctic winters 1999/2000, 2002/2003. The maximum ozone loss rates retrieved by the Match technique for the winters and levels studied reached 6 ppbv/sunlit hour and both types of simulations could generally reproduce the observations at 2-sigma error bar level. In some cases, for example, for the Arctic winter 2002/2003 at 475 K level, an excellent agreement within 1-sigma standard deviation level was obtained. An overestimation was also found with the box model simulation at some isentropic levels for the Antarctic winter and the Arctic winter 1999/2000, indicating an overestimation of chlorine activation in the model. Loss rates in the Antarctic show signs of saturation in September, which have to be considered in the comparison. Sensitivity tests were performed with the box model in order to assess the impact of kinetic parameters of the ClO-Cl2O2 catalytic cycle and total bromine content on the ozone loss rate. These tests resulted in a maximum change in ozone loss rates of 1.2 ppbv/sunlit hour, generally in high solar zenith angle conditions. In some cases, a better agreement was achieved with fastest photolysis of Cl2O2 and additional source of total inorganic bromine but at the expense of overestimation of smaller ozone loss rates derived later in the winter.

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This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Impact cratering has been a fundamental geological process in Earth history with major ramifications for the biosphere. The complexity of shocked and melted rocks within impact structures presents difficulties for accurate and precise radiogenic isotope age determination, hampering the assessment of the effects of an individual event in the geological record. We demonstrate the utility of a multi-chronometer approach in our study of samples from the 40 km diameter Araguainha impact structure of central Brazil. Samples of uplifted basement granite display abundant evidence of shock deformation, but U/Pb ages of shocked zircons and the Ar-40/Ar-39 ages of feldspar from the granite largely preserve the igneous crystallization and cooling history. Mixed results are obtained from in situ Ar-40/Ar-39 spot analyses of shocked igneous biotites in the granite, with deformation along kink-bands resulting in highly localized, partial resetting in these grains. Likewise, spot analyses of perlitic glass from pseudotachylitic breccia samples reflect a combination of argon inheritance from wall rock material, the age of the glass itself, and post-impact devitrification. The timing of crater formation is better assessed using samples of impact-generated melt rock where isotopic resetting is associated with textural evidence of melting and in situ crystallization. Granular aggregates of neocrystallized zircon form a cluster of ten U-Pb ages that yield a "Concordia" age of 247.8 +/- 3.8 Ma. The possibility of Pb loss from this population suggests that this is a minimum age for the impact event. The best evidence for the age of the impact comes from the U-Th-Pb dating of neocrystallized monazite and Ar-40/Ar-39 step heating of three separate populations of post-impact, inclusion-rich quartz grains that are derived from the infill of miarolitic cavities. The Pb-206/U-238 age of 254.5 +/- 3.2 Ma (2 sigma error) and Pb-208/Th-232 age of 255.2 +/- 4.8 Ma (2 sigma error) of monazite, together with the inverse, 18 point isochron age of 254 +/- 10 Ma (MSWD = 0.52) for the inclusion-rich quartz grains yield a weighted mean age of 254.7 +/- 2.5 Ma (0.99%, 2 sigma error) for the impact event. The age of the Araguainha crater overlaps with the timing of the Permo-Triassic boundary, within error, but the calculated energy released by the Araguainha impact is insufficient to be a direct cause of the global mass extinction. However, the regional effects of the Araguainha impact event in the Parana-Karoo Basin may have been substantial. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We report the first in situ measurements of neutral deuterium originating in the local interstellar medium (LISM) in Earth’s orbit. These measurements were performed with the IBEX-Lo camera on NASA’s interstellar boundary explorer (IBEX) satellite. All data from the spring observation periods of 2009 through 2011 have been analysed. In the three years of the IBEX mission time, the observation geometry and orbit allowed for a total observation time of 115.3 days for the LISM. However, the effects of the spinning spacecraft and the stepping through 8 energy channels mean that we are only observing the interstellar wind for a total time of 1.44 days, in which 2 counts for interstellar deuterium were collected. We report here a conservative number, because a possibility of systematic error or additional noise, though eliminated in our analysis to the best of our knowledge, only supports detection at a 1-sigma level. From these observations, we derive a ratio D/H = (5.8 ± 4.4) × 10-4 at 1 AU. After modelling the transport and loss of D and H from the termination shock to Earth’s orbit, we find that our result of D/HLISM = (1.6 ± 1.2) × 10-5 agrees with D/HLIC = (1.6 ± 0.4) × 10-5 for the local interstellar cloud. This weak interstellar signal is extracted from a strong terrestrial background signal consisting of sputter products from the sensor’s conversion surface. As reference, we accurately measure the terrestrial D/H ratio in these sputtered products and then discriminate this terrestrial background source. Because of the diminishing D and H signal at Earth’s orbit during the rising solar activity due to photoionisation losses and increased photon pressure, our result demonstrates that in situ measurements of interstellar deuterium in the inner heliosphere are only possible during solar minimum conditions.

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Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

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Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. Based on energy statistics, we estimate that the global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, 3.0 percent above 2010 levels. We project these emissions will increase by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of Gross World Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. Global net CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change, including deforestation, are more difficult to update annually because of data availability, but combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation and models suggests those net emissions were 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and reached 391.38 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011, increasing 1.70 ± 0.09 ppm yr−1 or 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 in 2011. Estimates from four ocean models suggest that the ocean CO2 sink was 2.6 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, implying a global residual terrestrial CO2 sink of 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

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This dataset characterizes the evolution of western African precipitation indicated by marine sediment geochemical records in comparison to transient simulations using CCSM3 global climate model throughout the Last Interglacial (130-115 ka). It contains (1) defined tie-points (age models), newly published stable isotopes of benthic foraminifera and Al/Si log-ratios of eight marine sediment cores from the western African margin and (2) annual and seasonal rainfall anomalies (relative to pre-industrial values) for six characteristic latitudinal bands in western Africa simulated by CCSM3 (two transient simulations: one non-accelerated and one accelerated experiment).

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In locations of rapid sediment accumulation receiving substantial amounts of laterally transported material the timescales of transport and accurate quantification of the transported material are at the focus of intense research. Here we present radiocarbon data obtained on co-occurring planktic foraminifera, marine haptophyte biomarkers (alkenones) and total organic carbon (TOC) coupled with excess Thorium-230 (230Thxs) measurements on four sediment cores retrieved in 1649-2879 m water depth from two such high accumulation drift deposits in the Northeast Atlantic, Björn and Gardar Drifts. While 230Thxs inventories imply strong sediment focussing, no age offsets are observed between planktic foraminifera and alkenones, suggesting that redistribution of sediments is rapid and occurs soon after formation of marine organic matter, or that transported material contains negligible amounts of alkenones. An isotopic mass balance calculation based on radiocarbon concentrations of co-occurring sediment components leads us to estimate that transported sediment components contain up to 12% of fossil organic matter that is free of or very poor in alkenones, but nevertheless appears to consist of a mixture of fresh and eroded fossil material. Considering all available constraints to characterize transported material, our results show that although focussing factors calculated from bulk sediment 230Thxs inventories may allow useful approximations of bulk redeposition, they do not provide a unique estimate of the amount of each laterally transported sediment component. Furthermore, our findings provide evidence that the occurrence of lateral sediment redistribution alone does not always hinder the use of multiple proxies but that individual sediment fractions are affected to variable extents by sediment focussing.

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Laminated lake sediments from the Dead Sea basin provide high-resolution records of climatic variability in the eastern Mediterranean region, which is especially sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In this study, we aim on detailed reconstruction of climatic fluctuations and related changes in the frequency of flood and dust deposition events at ca. 3300 and especially at 2800 cal. yr BP from high-resolution sediment records of the Dead Sea basin. A ca. 4-m-thick, mostly varved sediment section from the western margin of the Dead Sea (DSEn - Ein Gedi profile) was analysed and correlated to the new International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project core 5017-1 from the deep basin. To detect even single event layers, we applied a multi-proxy approach of high-resolution microscopic thin section analyses, micro-X-ray fluorescence (µ-XRF) element scanning and magnetic susceptibility measurements, supported by grain size data and palynological analyses. Based on radiocarbon and varve dating, two pronounced dry periods were detected at ~3500-3300 and ~3000-2400 cal. yr BP which are differently expressed in the sediment records. In the shallow-water core (DSEn), the older dry period is characterised by a thick sand deposit, whereas the sedimentological change at 2800 cal. yr BP is less pronounced and characterised mainly by an enhanced frequency of coarse detrital layers interpreted as erosion events. In the 5017-1 deep-basin core, both dry periods are depicted by halite deposits. The onset of the younger dry period coincides with the Homeric Grand Solar Minimum at ca. 2800 cal. yr BP. Our results suggest that during this period, the Dead Sea region experienced an overall dry climate, superimposed by an increased occurrence of flash floods caused by a change in synoptic weather patterns.

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A geochemical and paleontological reconstruction of paleoproductivity, upwelling intensity and sea surface temperature (SST) off central Chile at 35°S (GeoB3359-3) reveals marked changes from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) through the Early Holocene. Surface-water productivity was determined by the interaction between the atmospheric (the Southern Westerlies) and oceanographic (the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, ACC) systems from the LGM through early Termination I (TI). The northward shift of the climate zones during the LGM brought the ACC, as the main macronutrient source, closer to the GeoB3359-3, SST lowered, and surface water productivity and accumulation rates of biogenic components enhanced. With the poleward return of the Southern Westerlies and the ACC, the subtropical high-pressure system became the dominant atmospheric component southward till 35°S during the late TI and Early Holocene and caused surface water productivity to increase through enhanced upwelling.

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The late Carboniferous to Permian is a critical period for final amalgamation of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB), which is characterized by voluminous igneous rocks, particularly granitoids. The Kekesai composite granitoid porphyry intrusion, situated in the Chinese western Tianshan (southwest part of CAOB) includes two intrusive phases, a monzogranite phase, intruded by a granodiorite phase. LA-ICPMS U-Pb zircon analyses suggest that the monzogranitic rocks formed at 305.5±1.1 Ma, with a wide age range of inherited zircons (358-488 Ma and 1208-1391 Ma), whereas the granodioritic rocks formed at 288.7±1.5 Ma. The monzogranitic and granodioritic phases have similar geochemical features and Sr-Nd-Hf isotopic compositions. They exhibit high and variable SiO2 (66-71 wt.%) and MgO (0.41-2.14 wt.%) contents with some arc-like geochemical characteristics (e.g., enrichment of large ion lithophile elements and negative anomalies of Nb, Ta and Ti) and relatively high initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios (ISr=0.7055-0.7059), low positive eNd(t) (+0.84 to +1.03) as well as a large variation in Hf isotopic compositions with eHf(t) between +3.43 to +14.8, implying both of them were derived from similar source materials. These geochemical characteristics suggest that they might be mainly derived from the partial melting of arc-derived Mesoproterozoic mafic lower crust with involvement of a mantle-derived component in variable proportions by mantle-derived magma underplating. The presence of late-Ordovician to earliest early Carboniferous inherited zircons and the Hf isotopic compositions in the monzogranitic sample, similar to that of the widespread juvenile arc rocks, indicates some crust contamination during magma emplacement. Our new data, combined with previous studies, imply that extensive post-collisional magmatism due to underplating of mantle-derived magma, could plausibly be explained by slab break-off regime.