Investigation of the accuracy of historical irradiance products and interannual variability of solar irradiance using Met Office ground data

Met Office station data from 1980 to 2012 has been used to characterise the interannual variability of incident solar irradiance across the UK. The same data are used to evaluate four popular historical irradiance products to determine which are most suitable for use by the UK PV industry for site selection and system design. The study confirmed previous findings that interannual variability is typically 3–6% and weighted average probability of a particular percentage deviation from the mean at an average site in the UK was calculated. This weighted average showed that fewer than 2% of site-years could be expected to fall below 90% of the long-term site mean. The historical irradiance products were compared against Met Office station data from the input years of each product. This investigation has found that all products perform well. No products have a strong spatial trend. Meteonorm 7 is most conservative (MBE = −2.5%), CMSAF is most optimistic (MBE = +3.4%) and an average of all four products performs better than any one individual product (MBE = 0.3%)

Statistical characterisation of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc

We present the first multi-event study of the spatial and temporal structuring of the aurora to provide statistical evidence of the near-Earth plasma instability which causes the substorm onset arc. Using data from ground-based auroral imagers, we study repeatable signatures of along-arc auroral beads, which are thought to represent the ionospheric projection of magnetospheric instability in the near-Earth plasma sheet. We show that the growth and spatial scales of these wave-like fluctuations are similar across multiple events, indicating that each sudden auroral brightening has a common explanation. We find statistically that growth rates for auroral beads peak at low wavenumber with the most unstable spatial scales mapping to an azimuthal wavelength λ≈1700 − 2500 km in the equatorial magnetosphere at around 9-12 RE. We compare growth rates and spatial scales with a range of theoretical predictions of magnetotail instabilities, including the cross-field current instability and the shear-flow ballooning instability. We conclude that, although the cross-field current instability can generate similar magnitude of growth rates, the range of unstable wavenumbers indicates that the shear-flow ballooning instability is the most likely explanation for our observations.

Using Distributed Temperature Sensing to monitor field scale dynamics of ground surface temperature and related substrate heat flux

We present one of the first studies of the use of Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) along fibre-optic cables to purposely monitor spatial and temporal variations in ground surface temperature (GST) and soil temperature, and provide an estimate of the heat flux at the base of the canopy layer and in the soil. Our field site was at a groundwater-fed wet meadow in the Netherlands covered by a canopy layer (between 0-0.5 m thickness) consisting of grass and sedges. At this site, we ran a single cable across the surface in parallel 40 m sections spaced by 2 m, to create a 40×40 m monitoring field for GST. We also buried a short length (≈10 m) of cable to depth of 0.1±0.02 m to measure soil temperature. We monitored the temperature along the entire cable continuously over a two-day period and captured the diurnal course of GST, and how it was affected by rainfall and canopy structure. The diurnal GST range, as observed by the DTS system, varied between 20.94 and 35.08◦C; precipitation events acted to suppress the range of GST. The spatial distribution of GST correlated with canopy vegetation height during both day and night. Using estimates of thermal inertia, combined with a harmonic analysis of GST and soil temperature, substrate and soil-heat fluxes were determined. Our observations demonstrate how the use of DTS shows great promise in better characterising area-average substrate/soil heat flux, their spatiotemporal variability, and how this variability is affected by canopy structure. The DTS system is able to provide a much richer data set than could be obtained from point temperature sensors. Furthermore, substrate heat fluxes derived from GST measurements may be able to provide improved closure of the land surface energy balance in micrometeorological field studies. This will enhance our understanding of how hydrometeorological processes interact with near-surface heat fluxes.

Reconstructing paleosalinity from δ18O: coupled model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial and Late Holocene

Reconstructions of salinity are used to diagnose changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean circulation. A widely used method of determining past salinity uses oxygen isotope (δOw) residuals after the extraction of the global ice volume and temperature components. This method relies on a constant relationship between δOw and salinity throughout time. Here we use the isotope-enabled fully coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) HadCM3 to test the application of spatially and time-independent relationships in the reconstruction of past ocean salinity. Simulations of the Late Holocene (LH), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Last Interglacial (LIG) climates are performed and benchmarked against existing compilations of stable oxygen isotopes in carbonates (δOc), which primarily reflect δOw and temperature. We find that HadCM3 produces an accurate representation of the surface ocean δOc distribution for the LH and LGM. Our simulations show considerable variability in spatial and temporal δOw-salinity relationships. Spatial gradients are generally shallower but within ∼50% of the actual simulated LH to LGM and LH to LIG temporal gradients and temporal gradients calculated from multi-decadal variability are generally shallower than both spatial and actual simulated gradients. The largest sources of uncertainty in salinity reconstructions are found to be caused by changes in regional freshwater budgets, ocean circulation, and sea ice regimes. These can cause errors in salinity estimates exceeding 4 psu. Our results suggest that paleosalinity reconstructions in the South Atlantic, Indian and Tropical Pacific Oceans should be most robust, since these regions exhibit relatively constant δOw-salinity relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Largest uncertainties will affect North Atlantic and high latitude paleosalinity reconstructions. Finally, the results show that it is difficult to generate reliable salinity estimates for regions of dynamic oceanography, such as the North Atlantic, without additional constraints.

The relation between action, predictability and temporal contiguity in temporal binding

Previous studies have documented a subjective temporal attraction between actions and their effects. This finding, named intentional binding, is thought to be the result of a cognitive function that links actions to their consequences. Although several studies have tried to outline the necessary and sufficient conditions for intentional binding, a quantitative comparison between the roles of temporal contiguity, predictability and voluntary action and the evaluation of their interactions is difficult due to the high variability of the temporal binding measurements. In the present study, we used a novel methodology to investigate the properties of intentional binding. Subjects judged whether an auditory stimulus, which could either be triggered by a voluntary finger lift or be presented after a visual temporal marker unrelated to any action, was presented synchronously with a reference stimulus. In three experiments, the predictability, the interval between action and consequence and the presence of action itself were manipulated. The results indicate that (1) action is a necessary condition for temporal binding; (2) a fixed interval between the two events is not sufficient to cause the effect and (3) only in the presence of voluntary action do temporal predictability and contiguity play a significant role in modulating the effect.These findings are discussed in the context of the relationship between intentional binding and temporal expectation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecology and conservation of bottlenose dolphins in Madeira Archipelago, Portugal

This study aimed to provide an insight on the ecology of the bottlenose dolphin population in Madeira archipelago. To achieve this, population structure; group dynamics, site-fidelity, residency and movement patterns within and out of the study area; survival and abundance estimates and spatial and temporal distribution and habitat preferences related to physiographic parameters using data collected between 2001-2011, were investigated. Photo-identification data analysis revealed strong evidences that bottlenose dolphins seen in the archipelago of Madeira belong to an open population with regular recruitment of new animals to the area. This population exhibited a typical fission-fusion society, in which short-term acquaintances prevail, with only a few long-lasting associations. Photo-identification methods demonstrated that there is a large variability in residency pattern, with resident, transient and migrant individuals. Only a small number of dolphins were found to be resident (4.3%). Social network diagram as well as SLAR analysis supported the existence of a mixed population of residents, migrants and transients. Mark-recapture methods estimated a high survival rate, within the range of other long-lived cetacean species. The resident community is composed of app. 180 individuals. In addition, around 400 dolphins of different residency patterns were found to use the south area of Madeira Island. Spatial distribution indicated that bottlenose dolphins were regularly found in shallow and closer to shore areas, suggesting the existence of biological processes influenced by bathymetry. Moreover, temporal patterns revealed no strong seasonal fluctuation in the presence of bottlenose dolphins in Madeira archipelago waters. Bottlenose dolphins are listed under the Annex II of the EU habitats Directive that requires the designation of Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) for this species; as such, the knowledge gained through this work can be used by governmental authorities to the establishment and management of areas for the conservation of bottlenose dolphin in Madeira archipelago.

Variabilidade espacial e temporal de parâmetros físico-químicos nos rios Turvo, Preto e Grande no estado de São Paulo, Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spatial and linear correlations between soil and corn

O conjunto de tecnologias aplicadas ao sistema de produção agrícola tem como características principais a verticalização da produtividade, diminuição de custos, melhoria nas características físicas, químicas e biológicas do solo para proporcionarem o crescimento sustentável do meio de produção. Desta forma, o trabalho teve como objetivo determinar a variabilidade e as correlações lineares e especiais entre os atributos da planta e do solo, visando selecionar um indicador da qualidade física do solo de boa representatividade para produção de forragem. No ano agrícola de 2006, na Fazenda Bonança, município de Pereira Barreto (SP), foram analisados a produtividade de forragem do milho outonal (FDM) em sistema plantio direto irrigado e os atributos físicos do solo, num Latossolo Vermelho distrófico. O objetivo foi estudar a variabilidade e as correlações lineares e espaciais entre os atributos da planta e os do solo, visando selecionar um indicador da qualidade física do solo de boa representatividade para a produtividade da forragem. Foi instalada a malha geoestatística, para coleta de dados do solo e planta, contendo 125 pontos amostrais, numa área de 2.500 m². Os atributos estudados, além de não terem variado aleatoriamente, apresentaram variabilidade dos dados entre baixa e muito alta e seguiram padrões espaciais bem definidos, com alcances entre 7,8 e 38,0 m. Por outro lado, a correlação linear entre os atributos da planta com o do solo foi baixa e extremamente significativa. Os pares Massa Seca de forragem versus Microporosidade e Diâmetro do colmo versus Densidade do Solo foram melhor correlacionados na camada de 0-0.10m, enquanto os outros pares - Massa Seca de Forragem versus Macroporosidade - e Porosidade Total - apresentaram correlação inversa para a mesma camada. Entretanto, do ponto de vista espacial, houve uma alta correlação inversa entre Massa Seca de Forragem com Microporosidade, de modo que a microporosidade na camada de 0-0.10m pode ser considerada um bom indicador de qualidade física do solo, tendo em vista a produção de forragem de milho.

Reproductive biology and spatio-temporal distribution of Stellifer rastrifer, Stellifer naso and Macrodon ancylodon (Sciaenidae) in the Caeté estuary, northern Brazil

O presente estudo caracteriza a distribuição espaço-temporal dos peixes com maior abundância dentre a família Sciaenidae no estuário do rio Caeté, litoral norte do Brasil. Estima-se o comprimento de inicio da maturação sexual, o comprimento médio da primeira maturação sexual e os períodos de desova. Para tal, durante os meses de outubro de 1996 a agosto de 1997, foram feitas 6 coletas bimestrais, através de arrastos de fundo. A partir de subamostras das espécies mais abundantes dentro das capturas, construíram-se distribuições de freqüência de comprimento total, que foram analisadas por período e local de coleta. De onze espécies de Sciaenidae coletadas, a maior contribuição em abundância de exemplares foi feita pelas espécies Stellifer rastrifer, Stellifer naso e Macrodon ancylodon. Determinou-se que a distribuição espacial das espécies no sistema, está relacionada com mudanças periódicas na salinidade dentro do estuário e a sua dinâmica de reprodução. Assim, os juvenis de S. rastrifer, S. naso e M. ancylodon distribuíram-se nas áreas mais internas do estuário e os adultos nas águas costeiras, com maiores teores de salinidade. Enquanto que M. ancylodon apresenta desovas periódicas durante outubro a fevereiro, S. rastrifer e S. naso apresentam desovas parceladas com dois picos mais intensos de outubro a dezembro e durante junho.

Multivariate analysis of the temporal variability of sugarcane ripening in south-eastern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Probabilistic ictal EEG sources and temporal lobe epilepsy surgical outcome

Objective - For patients with medication refractory medial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE), surgery offers the hope of a cure. However, up to 30% of patients with MTLE continue to experience disabling seizures after surgery. The reasons why some patients do not achieve seizure freedom are poorly understood. A promising theory suggests that epileptogenic networks are broadly distributed in surgically refractory MTLE, involving regions beyond the medial temporal lobe. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate the distribution of epileptogenic networks in MTLE using Bayesian distributed EEG source analysis from preoperative ictal onset recordings. This analysis has the advantage of generating maps of source probability, which can be subjected to voxel-based statistical analyses.Methods - We compared 10 patients who achieved post-surgical seizure freedom with 10 patients who continued experiencing seizures after surgery. Voxel-based Wilcoxon tests were employed with correction for multiple comparisons.Results - We observed that ictal EEG source intensities were significantly more likely to occur in lateral temporal and posterior medial temporal regions in patients with continued seizures post-surgery.Conclusions - Our findings support the theory of broader spatial distribution of epileptogenic networks at seizure onset in patients with surgically refractory MTLE.

Annual, seasonal and spatial abundance of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri (Decapoda, Penaeidae) off the Southeastern coast of Brazil

We investigated the influence of environmental factors in spatial and temporal distribution of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri in Santos Bay and São Vicente Estuary, state of São Paulo, Brazil. Monthly samples were obtained, from May 2008 through April 2010, from four locations in the estuary and four in the bay. No individual was collected in the estuary and this was attributed to the low salinity means recorded in this environment. We collected 109,153 individuals in the bay and there was no difference in abundance between the two years comprised by the study period. The similarity in spatial distribution can be related to sediment grain size that in all sampling locations showed great amount of very fine sand. The largest amount of reproductive females was obtained in early 2010, when temperature was high, and this could have increased the juvenile recruitment in April 2010. According to our results, the distribution of X. kroyeri in the study area is influenced by temperature, which is related to reproduction, and salinity, limiting the entrance of individuals in the estuarine region.

Spatial intra-annual variability of precipitation based on geostatistics. a case study for the Paraiba do Sul Basin, southeastern Brazil

The emphasis in this research is to evaluate the spatial distribution of the precipitation using a geostatistics approach. Seasonal time scales records considering DJF, MAM, JJA e SON periods performed the analysis. Procedures to evaluate the variogram selection and to produce kriging maps were performed in a GIS environment (ArcGIS®). The results showed that kriging method was very suitable to detect both large changes in the whole area as those local small and subtle changes. Kriging demonstrated be a powerful statistical interpolation method that might be very useful in regions with great complexity in climatology and geomorphology.

BENTHIC MACROFAUNA STRUCTURE IN THE NORTHEAST AREA OF TODOS OS SANTOS BAY, BAHIA STATE, BRAZIL: PATTERNS OF SPATIAL AND SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION

Structure of intertidal and subtidal benthic macrofauna in the northeastern region of Todos os Santos Bay (TSB), northeast Brazil, was investigated during a period of two years. Relationships with environmental parameters were studied through uni- and multivariate statistical analyses, and the main distributional patterns shown to be especially related to sediment type and content of organic fractions (Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus), on both temporal and spatial scales. Polychaete annelids accounted for more than 70% of the total fauna and showed low densities, species richness and diversity, except for the area situated on the reef banks. These banks constitute a peculiar environment in relation to the rest of the region by having coarse sediments poor in organic matter and rich in biodetritic carbonates besides an abundant and diverse fauna. The intertidal region and the shallower area nearer to the oil refinery RLAM, with sediments composed mainly of fine sand, seem to constitute an unstable system with few highly dominant species, such as Armandia polyophthalma and Laeonereis acuta. In the other regions of TSB, where muddy bottoms predominated, densities and diversity were low, especially in the stations near the refinery. Here the lowest values of the biological indicators occurred together with the highest organic compound content. In addition, the nearest sites (stations 4 and 7) were sometimes azoic. The adjacent Caboto, considered as a control area at first, presented low density but intermediate values of species diversity, which indicates a less disturbed environment in relation to the pelitic infralittoral in front of the refinery. The results of the ordination analyses evidenced five homogeneous groups of stations (intertidal; reef banks; pelitic infralittoral; mixed sediments; Caboto) with different specific patterns, a fact which seems to be mainly related to granulometry and chemical sediment characteristics.