Power of QTL detection using association tests with family controls

The power of testing for a population-wide association between a biallelic quantitative trait locus and a linked biallelic marker locus is predicted both empirically and deterministically for several tests. The tests were based on the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and on a number of transmission disequilibrium tests (TDT). Deterministic power predictions made use of family information, and were functions of population parameters including linkage disequilibrium, allele frequencies, and recombination rate. Deterministic power predictions were very close to the empirical power from simulations in all scenarios considered in this study. The different TDTs had very similar power, intermediate between one-way and nested ANOVAs. One-way ANOVA was the only test that was not robust against spurious disequilibrium. Our general framework for predicting power deterministically can be used to predict power in other association tests. Deterministic power calculations are a powerful tool for researchers to plan and evaluate experiments and obviate the need for elaborate simulation studies.

Experimental and modelling investigation of monolayer development with clustering

Standard differential equation–based models of collective cell behaviour, such as the logistic growth model, invoke a mean–field assumption which is equivalent to assuming that individuals within the population interact with each other in proportion to the average population density. Implementing such assumptions implies that the dynamics of the system are unaffected by spatial structure, such as the formation of patches or clusters within the population. Recent theoretical developments have introduced a class of models, known as moment dynamics models, which aim to account for the dynamics of individuals, pairs of individuals, triplets of individuals and so on. Such models enable us to describe the dynamics of populations with clustering, however, little progress has been made with regard to applying moment dynamics models to experimental data. Here, we report new experimental results describing the formation of a monolayer of cells using two different cell types: 3T3 fibroblast cells and MDA MB 231 breast cancer cells. Our analysis indicates that the 3T3 fibroblast cells are relatively motile and we observe that the 3T3 fibroblast monolayer forms without clustering. Alternatively, the MDA MB 231 cells are less motile and we observe that the MDA MB 231 monolayer formation is associated with significant clustering. We calibrate a moment dynamics model and a standard mean–field model to both data sets. Our results indicate that the mean–field and moment dynamics models provide similar descriptions of the 3T3 fibroblast monolayer formation whereas these two models give very different predictions for the MDA MD 231 monolayer formation. These outcomes indicate that standard mean–field models of collective cell behaviour are not always appropriate and that care ought to be exercised when implementing such a model.

Scanning electron microscopy of condensation related minerals : the Bjurbole meteorite

Filamentary single crystals, blades, sheets, euhedral crystals and powders may form by vapor phase condensation depending on the supersauration conditions in the vapor with respect to the condensing species [1]. Filamentary crystal growth requires the operation of an axial screw dislocation [2]. A Vapor-Liquid-Solid (VLS) mechanism may also produce filamentary single crystals, ribbons and blades. The latter two morphologies are typically twinned. Crystals grown by this mechanism do not require the presence of an axial screw dislocation. Impurities may either promote or inhibit crystal growth [3]. The VLS mechanism allows crystals to grow at small supersaturation of the vapor. Thin enstatite blades, ribbons and sheets have been observed in chondritic porous Interplanetary Dust Partics (IDP's) [4, 5]. The requisite screw dislocation for vapor phase condensation [1] has been observed in these enstatite blades [4]. Bradley et al. [4] suggest that these crystals are primary vapor phase condensates which could have formed either in the solar nebula or in presolar environments. These observations [4,5] are significant in that they may provide a demonstrable link to theoretical predictions: viz. that in the primordial solar nebula filamentary condensates could cluster into 'lint balls' and form the predecessors to comets [6].

The relationship between anti-mullerian hormone in women receiving fertility assessments and age at menopause in subfertile women : evidence from large population studies

Context: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentration reflects ovarian aging and is argued to be a useful predictor of age at menopause (AMP). It is hypothesized that AMH falling below a critical threshold corresponds to follicle depletion, which results in menopause. With this threshold, theoretical predictions of AMP can be made. Comparisons of such predictions with observed AMP from population studies support the role for AMH as a forecaster of menopause. Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate whether previous relationships between AMH and AMP are valid using a much larger data set. Setting: AMH was measured in 27 563 women attending fertility clinics. Study Design: From these data a model of age-related AMH change was constructed using a robust regression analysis. Data on AMP from subfertile women were obtained from the population-based Prospect-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Prospect- EPIC) cohort (n � 2249). By constructing a probability distribution of age at which AMH falls below a critical threshold and fitting this to Prospect-EPIC menopausal age data using maximum likelihood, such a threshold was estimated. Main Outcome: The main outcome was conformity between observed and predicted AMP. Results: To get a distribution of AMH-predicted AMP that fit the Prospect-EPIC data, we found the critical AMH threshold should vary among women in such a way that women with low age-specific AMH would have lower thresholds, whereas women with high age-specific AMH would have higher thresholds (mean 0.075 ng/mL; interquartile range 0.038–0.15 ng/mL). Such a varying AMH threshold for menopause is a novel and biologically plausible finding. AMH became undetectable (�0.2 ng/mL) approximately 5 years before the occurrence of menopause, in line with a previous report. Conclusions: The conformity of the observed and predicted distributions of AMP supports the hypothesis that declining population averages of AMH are associated with menopause, making AMH an excellent candidate biomarker for AMP prediction. Further research will help establish the accuracy of AMH levels to predict AMP within individuals.

Experimental and computer simulation validation of ultrasound phase interference created by lateral inhomogeneity of transit time in replica bone marrow composite models

Purpose: The measurement of broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA) in cancellous bone for the assessment of osteoporosis follows a parabolic-type dependence with bone volume fraction; having minima values corresponding to both entire bone and entire marrow. Langton has recently proposed that the primary BUA mechanism may be significant phase interference due to variations in propagation transit time through the test sample as detected over the phase-sensitive surface of the receive ultrasound transducer. This fundamentally simple concept assumes that the propagation of ultrasound through a complex solid : liquid composite sample such as cancellous bone may be considered by an array of parallel ‘sonic rays’. The transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of bone and marrow propagated, being a minimum (tmin) solely through bone and a maximum (tmax) solely through marrow. A Transit Time Spectrum (TTS), ranging from tmin to tmax, may be defined describing the proportion of sonic rays having a particular transit time, effectively describing lateral inhomogeneity of transit time over the surface of the receive ultrasound transducer. Phase interference may result from interaction of ‘sonic rays’ of differing transit times. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that there is a dependence of phase interference upon the lateral inhomogenity of transit time by comparing experimental measurements and computer simulation predictions of ultrasound propagation through a range of relatively simplistic solid:liquid models exhibiting a range of lateral inhomogeneities. Methods: A range of test models was manufactured using acrylic and water as surrogates for bone and marrow respectively. The models varied in thickness in one dimension normal to the direction of propagation, hence exhibiting a range of transit time lateral inhomogeneities, ranging from minimal (single transit time) to maximal (wedge; ultimately the limiting case where each sonic ray has a unique transit time). For the experimental component of the study, two unfocused 1 MHz ¾” broadband diameter transducers were utilized in transmission mode; ultrasound signals were recorded for each of the models. The computer simulation was performed with Matlab, where the transit time and relative amplitude of each sonic ray was calculated. The transit time for each sonic ray was defined as the sum of transit times through acrylic and water components. The relative amplitude considered the reception area for each sonic ray along with absorption in the acrylic. To replicate phase-sensitive detection, all sonic rays were summed and the output signal plotted in comparison with the experimentally derived output signal. Results: From qualtitative and quantitative comparison of the experimental and computer simulation results, there is an extremely high degree of agreement of 94.2% to 99.0% between the two approaches, supporting the concept that propagation of an ultrasound wave, for the models considered, may be approximated by a parallel sonic ray model where the transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of ‘bone’ and ‘marrow’. Conclusions: This combined experimental and computer simulation study has successfully demonstrated that lateral inhomogeneity of transit time has significant potential for phase interference to occur if a phase-sensitive ultrasound receive transducer is implemented as in most commercial ultrasound bone analysis devices.

Empirical Support For an Item and Relational Conceptualization of Sponsorship

This paper outlines how commercial sponsorship can be conceptualized using an item and relational information framework, and supports this with empirical data. The model presented allows for predictions about consumer memory for sponsorship information, and hence has both theoretical and practical value. Data are reported which show that sponsors considered congruent with an event benefit by providing consumers with sponsor-specific item information, while sponsors considered incongruent benefit by providing sponsor-event relational information. Overall the provision of sponsor-event relational information is shown to result in superior memory to the provision of sponsor-specific item information, which is superior to basic sponsor mentions.

Empirical support for an item and relational conceptualization of sponsorship

This paper outlines how commercial sponsorship can be conceptualized using an item and relational information framework, and supports this with empirical data. The model presented allows for predictions about consumer memory for sponsorship information, and hence has both theoretical and practical value. Data are reported which show that sponsors considered congruent with an event benefit by providing consumers with sponsor-specific item information, while sponsors considered incongruent benefit by providing sponsor-event relational information. Overall the provision of sponsor-event relational information is shown to result in superior memory to the provision of sponsor-specific item information, which is superior to basic sponsor mentions.

Which procurement system? Towards a universal procurement selection technique

Two approaches are described, which aid the selection of the most appropriate procurement arrangements for a building project. The first is a multi-attribute technique based on the National Economic Development Office procurement path decision chart. A small study is described in which the utility factors involved were weighted by averaging the scores of five 'experts' for three hypothetical building projects. A concordance analysis is used to provide some evidence of any abnormal data sources. When applied to the study data, one of the experts was seen to be atypical. The second approach is by means of discriminant analysis. This was found to provide reasonably consistent predictions through three discriminant functions. The analysis also showed the quality criteria to have no significant impact on the decision process. Both approaches provided identical and intuitively correct answers in the study described. Some concluding remarks are made on the potential of discriminant analysis for future research and development in procurement selection techniques.

An FE investigation simulating intra-operative corrective forces applied to correct scoliosis deformity

Background: Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) is a deformity of the spine, which may 34 require surgical correction by attaching a rod to the patient’s spine using screws 35 implanted in the vertebral bodies. Surgeons achieve an intra-operative reduction in the 36 deformity by applying compressive forces across the intervertebral disc spaces while 37 they secure the rod to the vertebra. We were interested to understand how the 38 deformity correction is influenced by increasing magnitudes of surgical corrective forces 39 and what tissue level stresses are predicted at the vertebral endplates due to the 40 surgical correction. 41 Methods: Patient-specific finite element models of the osseoligamentous spine and 42 ribcage of eight AIS patients who underwent single rod anterior scoliosis surgery were 43 created using pre-operative computed tomography (CT) scans. The surgically altered 44 spine, including titanium rod and vertebral screws, was simulated. The models were 45 analysed using data for intra-operatively measured compressive forces – three load 46 profiles representing the mean and upper and lower standard deviation of this data 47 were analysed. Data for the clinically observed deformity correction (Cobb angle) were 48 compared with the model-predicted correction and the model results investigated to 49 better understand the influence of increased compressive forces on the biomechanics of 50 the instrumented joints. 51 Results: The predicted corrected Cobb angle for seven of the eight FE models were 52 within the 5° clinical Cobb measurement variability for at least one of the force profiles. 53 The largest portion of overall correction was predicted at or near the apical 54 intervertebral disc for all load profiles. Model predictions for four of the eight patients 55 showed endplate-to-endplate contact was occurring on adjacent endplates of one or 56 more intervertebral disc spaces in the instrumented curve following the surgical loading 57 steps. 58 Conclusion: This study demonstrated there is a direct relationship between intra-59 operative joint compressive forces and the degree of deformity correction achieved. The 60 majority of the deformity correction will occur at or in adjacent spinal levels to the apex 61 of the deformity. This study highlighted the importance of the intervertebral disc space 62 anatomy in governing the coronal plane deformity correction and the limit of this 63 correction will be when bone-to-bone contact of the opposing vertebral endplates 64 occurs.

A pre-treatment verification tool for IMRT based on EPID measurements and a GEANT4 back projection application

The aim of this work is to develop software that is capable of back projecting primary fluence images obtained from EPID measurements through phantom and patient geometries in order to calculate 3D dose distributions. In the first instance, we aim to develop a tool for pretreatment verification in IMRT. In our approach, a Geant4 application is used to back project primary fluence values from each EPID pixel towards the source. Each beam is considered to be polyenergetic, with a spectrum obtained from Monte Carlo calculations for the LINAC in question. At each step of the ray tracing process, the energy differential fluence is corrected for attenuation and beam divergence. Subsequently, the TERMA is calculated and accumulated to an energy differential 3D TERMA distribution. This distribution is then convolved with monoenergetic point spread kernels, thus generating energy differential 3D dose distributions. The resulting dose distributions are accumulated to yield the total dose distribution, which can then be used for pre-treatment verification of IMRT plans. Preliminary results were obtained for a test EPID image comprised of 100 9 100 pixels of unity fluence. Back projection of this field into a 30 cm9 30 cm 9 30 cm water phantom was performed, with TERMA distributions obtained in approximately 10 min (running on a single core of a 3 GHz processor). Point spread kernels for monoenergetic photons in water were calculated using a separate Geant4 application. Following convolution and summation, the resulting 3D dose distribution produced familiar build-up and penumbral features. In order to validate the dose model we will use EPID images recorded without any attenuating material in the beam for a number of MLC defined square fields. The dose distributions in water will be calculated and compared to TPS predictions.

Simplified method for including spatial correlations in mean-field approximations

Biological systems involving proliferation, migration and death are observed across all scales. For example, they govern cellular processes such as wound-healing, as well as the population dynamics of groups of organisms. In this paper, we provide a simplified method for correcting mean-field approximations of volume-excluding birth-death-movement processes on a regular lattice. An initially uniform distribution of agents on the lattice may give rise to spatial heterogeneity, depending on the relative rates of proliferation, migration and death. Many frameworks chosen to model these systems neglect spatial correlations, which can lead to inaccurate predictions of their behaviour. For example, the logistic model is frequently chosen, which is the mean-field approximation in this case. This mean-field description can be corrected by including a system of ordinary differential equations for pair-wise correlations between lattice site occupancies at various lattice distances. In this work we discuss difficulties with this method and provide a simplication, in the form of a partial differential equation description for the evolution of pair-wise spatial correlations over time. We test our simplified model against the more complex corrected mean-field model, finding excellent agreement. We show how our model successfully predicts system behaviour in regions where the mean-field approximation shows large discrepancies. Additionally, we investigate regions of parameter space where migration is reduced relative to proliferation, which has not been examined in detail before, and our method is successful at correcting the deviations observed in the mean-field model in these parameter regimes.

Development of a simplified design method to predict the fire rating of LSF walls

Recent fire research into the behaviour of light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems has devel-oped fire design rules based on Australian and European cold-formed steel design standards, AS/NZS 4600 and Eurocode 3 Part 1.3. However, these design rules are complex since the LSF wall studs are subjected to non-uniform elevated temperature distributions when the walls are exposed to fire from one side. Therefore this paper proposes an alternative design method for routine predictions of fire resistance rating of LSF walls. In this method, suitable equations are recommended first to predict the idealised stud time-temperature pro-files of eight different LSF wall configurations subject to standard fire conditions based on full scale fire test results. A new set of equations was then proposed to find the critical hot flange (failure) temperature for a giv-en load ratio for the same LSF wall configurations with varying steel grades and thickness. These equations were developed based on detailed finite element analyses that predicted the axial compression capacities and failure times of LSF wall studs subject to non-uniform temperature distributions with varying steel grades and thicknesses. This paper proposes a simple design method in which the two sets of equations developed for time-temperature profiles and critical hot flange temperatures are used to find the failure times of LSF walls. The proposed method was verified by comparing its predictions with the results from full scale fire tests and finite element analyses. This paper presents the details of this study including the finite element models of LSF wall studs, the results from relevant fire tests and finite element analyses, and the proposed equations.

Sample size considerations and augmentation of computer experiments

Computer Experiments, consisting of a number of runs of a computer model with different inputs, are now common-place in scientific research. Using a simple fire model for illustration some guidelines are given for the size of a computer experiment. A graph is provided relating the error of prediction to the sample size which should be of use when designing computer experiments. Methods for augmenting computer experiments with extra runs are also described and illustrated. The simplest method involves adding one point at a time choosing that point with the maximum prediction variance. Another method that appears to work well is to choose points from a candidate set with maximum determinant of the variance covariance matrix of predictions.

Construct Redundancy in Process Modeling Grammars: Improving the Explanatory Power of Ontological Analysis

Conceptual modelling supports developers and users of information systems in areas of documentation, analysis or system redesign. The ongoing interest in the modelling of business processes has led to a variety of different grammars, raising the question of the quality of these grammars for modelling. An established way of evaluating the quality of a modelling grammar is by means of an ontological analysis, which can determine the extent to which grammars contain construct deficit, overload, excess or redundancy. While several studies have shown the relevance of most of these criteria, predictions about construct redundancy have yielded inconsistent results in the past, with some studies suggesting that redundancy may even be beneficial for modelling in practice. In this paper we seek to contribute to clarifying the concept of construct redundancy by introducing a revision to the ontological analysis method. Based on the concept of inheritance we propose an approach that distinguishes between specialized and distinct construct redundancy. We demonstrate the potential explanatory power of the revised method by reviewing and clarifying previous results found in the literature.

A general model for host plant selection in phytophagous insects

We develop a general theoretical framework for exploring the host plant selection behaviour of herbivorous insects. This model can be used to address a number of questions, including the evolution of specialists, generalists, preference hierarchies, and learning. We use our model to: (i) demonstrate the consequences of the extent to which the reproductive success of a foraging female is limited by the rate at which they find host plants (host limitation) or the number of eggs they carry (egg limitation); (ii) emphasize the different consequences of variation in behaviour before and after landing on (locating) a host (termed pre- and post-alighting, respectively); (iii) show that, in contrast to previous predictions, learning can be favoured in post-alighting behaviour--in particular, individuals can be selected to concentrate oviposition on an abundant low-quality host, whilst ignoring a rare higher-quality host; (iv) emphasize the importance of interactions between mechanisms in favouring specialization or learning.