Bayesian tools for zero counts in compositional data

The log-ratio methodology makes available powerful tools for analyzing compositionaldata. Nevertheless, the use of this methodology is only possible for those data setswithout null values. Consequently, in those data sets where the zeros are present, aprevious treatment becomes necessary. Last advances in the treatment of compositionalzeros have been centered especially in the zeros of structural nature and in the roundedzeros. These tools do not contemplate the particular case of count compositional datasets with null values. In this work we deal with \count zeros" and we introduce atreatment based on a mixed Bayesian-multiplicative estimation. We use the Dirichletprobability distribution as a prior and we estimate the posterior probabilities. Then weapply a multiplicative modi¯cation for the non-zero values. We present a case studywhere this new methodology is applied.Key words: count data, multiplicative replacement, composition, log-ratio analysis

Epidemiological and clinical data of hospitalizations associated with respiratory syncytial virus infection in children under 5 years of age in Spain: FIVE multicenter study.

BACKGROUND Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important pathogen in lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in infants, but there are limited data concerning patients with underlying conditions and children older than 2 years of age. METHODS We have designed a prospective observational multicenter national study performed in 26 Spanish hospitals (December 2011-March 2012). Investigational cases were defined as children with underlying chronic diseases and were compared with a group of previously healthy children (proportion 1:2). Clinical data were compared between the groups. RESULTS A total of 1763 children hospitalized due to RSV infection during the inclusion period were analyzed. Of them, 225 cases and 460 healthy children were enrolled in the study. Underlying diseases observed were respiratory (64%), cardiovascular (25%), and neurologic (12%), as well as chromosomal abnormalities (7·5%), immunodeficiencies (6·7%), and inborn errors of metabolism (3·5%). Cases were statistically older than previously healthy children (average age: 16·3 versus 5·5 months). Cases experienced hypoxemia more frequently (P < 0·001), but patients with respiratory diseases required oxygen therapy more often (OR: 2·99; 95% CI: 1·03-8·65). Mechanical ventilation was used more in patients with cardiac diseases (OR: 3·0; 95% CI: 1·07-8·44) and in those with inborn errors of metabolism (OR: 12·27; 95% CI: 2·11-71·47). This subgroup showed a higher risk of admission to the PICU (OR: 6·7, 95% CI: 1·18-38·04). Diagnosis of pneumonia was more frequently found in cases (18·2% versus 9·3%; P < 0·01). CONCLUSIONS A significant percentage of children with RSV infection have underlying diseases and the illness severity is higher than in healthy children.

Efficacy of prescribed injectable diacetylmorphine in the Andalusian trial: Bayesian analysis of responders and non-responders according to a multi domain outcome index.

BACKGROUND The objective of this research was to evaluate data from a randomized clinical trial that tested injectable diacetylmorphine (DAM) and oral methadone (MMT) for substitution treatment, using a multi-domain dichotomous index, with a Bayesian approach. METHODS Sixty two long-term, socially-excluded heroin injectors, not benefiting from available treatments were randomized to receive either DAM or MMT for 9 months in Granada, Spain. Completers were 44 and data at the end of the study period was obtained for 50. Participants were determined to be responders or non responders using a multi-domain outcome index accounting for their physical and mental health and psychosocial integration, used in a previous trial. Data was analyzed with Bayesian methods, using information from a similar study conducted in The Netherlands to select a priori distributions. On adding the data from the present study to update the a priori information, the distribution of the difference in response rates were obtained and used to build credibility intervals and relevant probability computations. RESULTS In the experimental group (n = 27), the rate of responders to treatment was 70.4% (95% CI 53.287.6), and in the control group (n = 23), it was 34.8% (95% CI 15.354.3). The probability of success in the experimental group using the a posteriori distributions was higher after a proper sensitivity analysis. Almost the whole distribution of the rates difference (the one for diacetylmorphine minus methadone) was located to the right of the zero, indicating the superiority of the experimental treatment. CONCLUSION The present analysis suggests a clinical superiority of injectable diacetylmorphine compared to oral methadone in the treatment of severely affected heroin injectors not benefiting sufficiently from the available treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52023186.

Cross-sectional observational study of 208 patients with non-classical urea cycle disorders.

Urea cycle disorders (UCDs) are inherited disorders of ammonia detoxification often regarded as mainly of relevance to pediatricians. Based on an increasing number of case studies it has become obvious that a significant number of UCD patients are affected by their disease in a non-classical way: presenting outside the newborn period, following a mild course, presenting with unusual clinical features, or asymptomatic patients with only biochemical signs of a UCD. These patients are surviving into adolescence and adulthood, rendering this group of diseases clinically relevant to adult physicians as well as pediatricians. In preparation for an international workshop we collected data on all patients with non-classical UCDs treated by the participants in 20 European metabolic centres. Information was collected on a cohort of 208 patients 50% of which were ≥ 16 years old. The largest subgroup (121 patients) had X-linked ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency (OTCD) of whom 83 were female and 29% of these were asymptomatic. In index patients, there was a mean delay from first symptoms to diagnosis of 1.6 years. Cognitive impairment was present in 36% of all patients including female OTCD patients (in 31%) and those 41 patients identified presymptomatically following positive newborn screening (in 12%). In conclusion, UCD patients with non-classical clinical presentations require the interest and care of adult physicians and have a high risk of neurological complications. To improve the outcome of UCDs, a greater awareness by health professionals of the importance of hyperammonemia and UCDs, and ultimately avoidance of the still long delay to correctly diagnose the patients, is crucial.

Possible solution of some essential zero problems in compositional data analysis

One of the tantalising remaining problems in compositional data analysis lies in how to deal with data sets in which there are components which are essential zeros. By anessential zero we mean a component which is truly zero, not something recorded as zero simply because the experimental design or the measuring instrument has not been sufficiently sensitive to detect a trace of the part. Such essential zeros occur inmany compositional situations, such as household budget patterns, time budgets,palaeontological zonation studies, ecological abundance studies. Devices such as nonzero replacement and amalgamation are almost invariably ad hoc and unsuccessful insuch situations. From consideration of such examples it seems sensible to build up amodel in two stages, the first determining where the zeros will occur and the secondhow the unit available is distributed among the non-zero parts. In this paper we suggest two such models, an independent binomial conditional logistic normal model and a hierarchical dependent binomial conditional logistic normal model. The compositional data in such modelling consist of an incidence matrix and a conditional compositional matrix. Interesting statistical problems arise, such as the question of estimability of parameters, the nature of the computational process for the estimation of both the incidence and compositional parameters caused by the complexity of the subcompositional structure, the formation of meaningful hypotheses, and the devising of suitable testing methodology within a lattice of such essential zero-compositional hypotheses. The methodology is illustrated by application to both simulated and real compositional data

Segmentation and grid generation for numerical simulations of vad connections with patient-specific data

Objectives: We are interested in the numerical simulation of the anastomotic region comprised between outflow canula of LVAD and the aorta. Segmenta¬tion, geometry reconstruction and grid generation from patient-specific data remain an issue because of the variable quality of DICOM images, in particular CT-scan (e.g. metallic noise of the device, non-aortic contrast phase). We pro¬pose a general framework to overcome this problem and create suitable grids for numerical simulations.Methods: Preliminary treatment of images is performed by reducing the level window and enhancing the contrast of the greyscale image using contrast-limited adaptive histogram equalization. A gradient anisotropic diffusion filter is applied to reduce the noise. Then, watershed segmentation algorithms and mathematical morphology filters allow reconstructing the patient geometry. This is done using the InsightToolKit library (www.itk.org). Finally the Vascular Model¬ing ToolKit (www.vmtk.org) and gmsh (www.geuz.org/gmsh) are used to create the meshes for the fluid (blood) and structure (arterial wall, outflow canula) and to a priori identify the boundary layers. The method is tested on five different patients with left ventricular assistance and who underwent a CT-scan exam.Results: This method produced good results in four patients. The anastomosis area is recovered and the generated grids are suitable for numerical simulations. In one patient the method failed to produce a good segmentation because of the small dimension of the aortic arch with respect to the image resolution.Conclusions: The described framework allows the use of data that could not be otherwise segmented by standard automatic segmentation tools. In particular the computational grids that have been generated are suitable for simulations that take into account fluid-structure interactions. Finally the presented method features a good reproducibility and fast application.

Bosentan and/or Sildenafil for non-operable chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension

Objectives: To evaluate outcome of patients treated "off-label" by bosentan and/or sildenafil for chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). Patients and methods: Since 2003, 18 patients (mean age 69 ± 11 years) have been treated with bosentan and/or sildenafil for CTEPH (mean pulmonary arterial resistance 8.1 ± 3.7 U Wood) in Lausanne University Hospital, with a follow-up of at least 12 months. Sixteen of them were inoperable because of distal disease and/or age or significant co-morbidities and 2 had persistent or recurrent pulmonary hypertension despite surgery. Efficacy of treatment was evaluated by comparison of New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA), six-minute walk test (6-MWT) and serum levels of N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT pro-BNP) at baseline (T0) and at 12 months (T12). Wilcoxon rank test was used for statistics. Results: At T0, median NYHA class was III (range II-IV), 6-MWT was 348 meters (5 and 95 centiles:0, 539) and NT pro-BNP was 387 mmol/l (58, 3508). At T12, 11 patients were treated with bosentan, 5 with sildenafil, 1 with inhaled Iloprost (because of failure of the two other treatments) and 1 with a combination of sildenafil and Iloprost. NYHA had improved in 10 patients, remained stable in 7 and worsened in 1 (median decrease 0.5 (-2; 0.2) p = 0.013). Six-MWT improved by a median of 15 meters (-142, +270) (p = 0.047) and NT pro-BNP decreased by a median of 65 mmol/l (-2988, +187) (p = n.s.). Among the 10 patients with a follow-up of 2 years or longer, two thirds remained stable and one third had worsened at 24 month. Treatments were well tolerated and only one patient had significant side effects (cutaneous reaction to bosentan) necessitating a switch to another treatment. Conclusion: In agreement with published data, bosentan and sildenafil improved functional status (NYHA, 6-MWT) and haemodynamics (NT pro BNP) in our patients with inoperable CTEPH. However these medications should not be used as substitute for surgery when the latter is applicable.

Epigenetic mechanisms in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: An emerging field.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging health concern in both developed and non-developed world, encompassing from simple steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and liver cancer. Incidence and prevalence of this disease are increasing due to the socioeconomic transition and change to harmful diet. Currently, gold standard method in NAFLD diagnosis is liver biopsy, despite complications and lack of accuracy due to sampling error. Further, pathogenesis of NAFLD is not fully understood, but is well-known that obesity, diabetes and metabolic derangements played a major role in disease development and progression. Besides, gut microbioma and host genetic and epigenetic background could explain considerable interindividual variability. Knowledge that epigenetics, heritable events not caused by changes in DNA sequence, contribute to development of diseases has been a revolution in the last few years. Recently, evidences are accumulating revealing the important role of epigenetics in NAFLD pathogenesis and in NASH genesis. Histone modifications, changes in DNA methylation and aberrant profiles or microRNAs could boost development of NAFLD and transition into clinical relevant status. PNPLA3 genotype GG has been associated with a more progressive disease and epigenetics could modulate this effect. The impact of epigenetic on NAFLD progression could deserve further applications on therapeutic targets together with future non-invasive methods useful for the diagnosis and staging of NAFLD.

Improved accuracy of co-morbidity coding over time after the introduction of ICD-10 administrative data.

BACKGROUND: Co-morbidity information derived from administrative data needs to be validated to allow its regular use. We assessed evolution in the accuracy of coding for Charlson and Elixhauser co-morbidities at three time points over a 5-year period, following the introduction of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10), coding of hospital discharges.METHODS: Cross-sectional time trend evaluation study of coding accuracy using hospital chart data of 3'499 randomly selected patients who were discharged in 1999, 2001 and 2003, from two teaching and one non-teaching hospital in Switzerland. We measured sensitivity, positive predictive and Kappa values for agreement between administrative data coded with ICD-10 and chart data as the 'reference standard' for recording 36 co-morbidities.RESULTS: For the 17 the Charlson co-morbidities, the sensitivity - median (min-max) - was 36.5% (17.4-64.1) in 1999, 42.5% (22.2-64.6) in 2001 and 42.8% (8.4-75.6) in 2003. For the 29 Elixhauser co-morbidities, the sensitivity was 34.2% (1.9-64.1) in 1999, 38.6% (10.5-66.5) in 2001 and 41.6% (5.1-76.5) in 2003. Between 1999 and 2003, sensitivity estimates increased for 30 co-morbidities and decreased for 6 co-morbidities. The increase in sensitivities was statistically significant for six conditions and the decrease significant for one. Kappa values were increased for 29 co-morbidities and decreased for seven.CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy of administrative data in recording clinical conditions improved slightly between 1999 and 2003. These findings are of relevance to all jurisdictions introducing new coding systems, because they demonstrate a phenomenon of improved administrative data accuracy that may relate to a coding 'learning curve' with the new coding system.

Prescribing practices in German and Swiss psychiatric university and in non-university hospitals : national differences

RÉSUMÉ Il existe dans la pratique de prescription des médicaments de grandes variations entre les hôpitaux. Ces variations sont d'origines multifactorielles, comme par exemple des traditions de prescriptions locales, des considérations pharmato-économiques, la disponibilité d'un médicament, des différences de population, la prévalence d'une maladie, etc. Les études disponibles sur les pratiques de prescription sont souvent réduites à un centre unique, à une région ou à un pays. L'emploi de méthodes et de définitions particulières a jusqu'à pressent limité des comparaisons plus étendues entre les pays et régions. Le but de cette étude est de comparer la pratique de prescription de nouveaux médicaments psychotropes dans des cliniques suisses et allemandes. Cinq hôpitaux psychiatriques ont été sélectionnés, faisant tous partie du projet AMSP, et représentant des cliniques suisses, allemandes, de niveau universitaire ou non. Des données sur 572 patients et 1745 prescriptions ont été collectées durant un jour précis. Les comparaisons ont été ajustées pour l'âge et le sexe. Une différence significative (p <0.001) a été trouvée dans la prescription de nouveaux médicaments antidépresseurs, les cliniciens suisses en donnant en moyenne plus (65.2%) que les allemands (48.3%). Aucune différence significative n'a été démontrée dans la prescription des nouveaux médicaments antipsychotiques atypiques. Il semble en conséquence que les psychiatres suisses ont une propension plus élevée à prescrire des nouveaux médicaments antidépresseurs. Cela semble être dû à des différences de traditions de prescriptions nationales ou régionales. D'autres études sont nécessaires pour investiguer les influences économiques sur la pratique de prescription dans des cliniques suisses et allemandes. SUMMARY Obiective: There are great variations between hospitals in the way drugs are prescribed and these variations may be due to multiple factors such as local prescribing traditions, pharmacoeconomic considerations, drug availability; regional differences of population, disease prevalence etc. Available studies on prescribing habits have, besides studies performed in a unique centre, until now often been restricted to single countries or regions and the comparisons across countries or regions have often been limited by the use of diverse methodologies and definitions. The aim of the present study was to compare drug prescriptions between German and Swiss psychiatric services with regard to their preference of newer psychotropics. Material, method: Five psychiatric hospitals, associated to the AMSP-project, were chosen to represent Swiss and German clinics, university and non-university settings. Data were available from one index day on 572 patients and 1745 prescriptions. The comparisons were adjusted for age and gender. Results: There was a significant difference (p < 0.001) with regard to the prescription of newer antidepressants (NAD), Swiss clinicians giving proportionally more (65.2 %) than the German psychiatrists (48.3 %). No significant difference was, on the other hand, found as to the proportion of atypical antipsychotics, the lack of difference being due to the higher proportion of clozapine among the atypical antipsychotics in Germany. Conclusion: There seems therefore to be a higher propensity for Swiss hospital psychiatrists to prescribe newer antidepressants. This seems to be due to national or regional prescribing traditions. Further studies are needed to investigate the economical influences on antidepressant prescribing in Swiss and German clinics.)

Non-medical prescription drug and illicit street drug use among young Swiss men and associated mental health issues.

Non-medical use of prescription drugs (NMUPD) is increasing among the general population, particularly among teenagers and young adults. Although prescription drugs are considered safer than illicit street drugs, NMUPD can lead to detrimental consequences. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between drug use (NMUPD on the one side, illicit street drugs on the other side) with mental health issues and then compare these associations. A representative sample of 5719 young Swiss men aged around 20 years filled in a questionnaire as part of the ongoing baseline Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). Drug use (16 illicit street drugs and 5 NMUPDs, including sleeping pills, sedatives, pain killers, antidepressants, stimulants) and mental health issues (depression, SF12) were assessed. Simple and multiple linear regressions were employed. In simple regressions, all illicit and prescription drugs were associated with poorer mental health. In multiple regressions, most of the NMUPDs, except for stimulants, were significantly associated with poorer mental health and with depression. On the contrary, the only associations that remained significant between illicit street drugs and mental health involved cannabis. NMUPD is of growing concern not only because of its increasing occurrence, but also because of its association with depression and mental health problems, which is stronger than the association observed between these problems and illicit street drug use, excepted for cannabis. Therefore, NMUPD must be considered in screening for substance use prevention purposes.

A non-invasive assessment of hepatic glycogen kinetics and post-absorptive gluconeogenesis in man.

A novel approach to the study of hepatic glycogen kinetics and fractional gluconeogenesis in vivo is described. Ten healthy female subjects were fed an iso-caloric diet containing 55% carbohydrate energy with a 13C abundance of 1.083 atom percent for a 3-day baseline period; then, a diet of similar composition, but providing carbohydrate with a 13C abundance of 1.093 atom percent was started and continued for 5 days. Resting respiratory gas exchanges, urinary nitrogen excretion, breath 13CO2 and plasma 13C glucose were measured every morning in the fasting state. The enrichment in 13C of hepatic glycogen was calculated from these measured data. 13C glycogen enrichment increased after switching to a 13C enriched carbohydrate diet, and was identical to the 13C enrichment of dietary carbohydrates after 3 days. The time required to renew 50% of hepatic glycogen, as determined from the kinetics of 13C glycogen enrichment, was 18.9 +/- 3.6 h. Fractional gluconeogenesis, as determined from the difference between the enrichments of glucose oxidized originating from hepatic glycogen and plasma glucose 13C was 50.8 +/- 5.3%. This non-invasive method will allow the study of hepatic glycogen metabolism in insulin-resistant patients.

A mixed approach for proving non-inferiority in clinical trials with binary endpoints

When a new treatment is compared to an established one in a randomized clinical trial, it is standard practice to statistically test for non-inferiority rather than for superiority. When the endpoint is binary, one usually compares two treatments using either an odds-ratio or a difference of proportions. In this paper, we propose a mixed approach which uses both concepts. One first defines the non-inferiority margin using an odds-ratio and one ultimately proves non-inferiority statistically using a difference of proportions. The mixed approach is shown to be more powerful than the conventional odds-ratio approach when the efficacy of the established treatment is known (with good precision) and high (e.g. with more than 56% of success). The gain of power achieved may lead in turn to a substantial reduction in the sample size needed to prove non-inferiority. The mixed approach can be generalized to ordinal endpoints.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of heart failure events: an individual participant data analysis from 6 prospective cohorts.

BACKGROUND: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for the diagnosis and management of heart failure recommend investigating exacerbating conditions such as thyroid dysfunction, but without specifying the impact of different thyroid-stimulation hormone (TSH) levels. Limited prospective data exist on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and heart failure events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a pooled analysis of individual participant data using all available prospective cohorts with thyroid function tests and subsequent follow-up of heart failure events. Individual data on 25 390 participants with 216 248 person-years of follow-up were supplied from 6 prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH of 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L, subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH of 4.5 to 19.9 mIU/L, and subclinical hyperthyroidism as TSH <0.45 mIU/L, the last two with normal free thyroxine levels. Among 25 390 participants, 2068 (8.1%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 648 (2.6%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels (P for quadratic pattern <0.01); the hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.26) for TSH of 4.5 to 6.9 mIU/L, 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-3.23) for TSH of 7.0 to 9.9 mIU/L, 1.86 (95% confidence interval, 1.27-2.72) for TSH of 10.0 to 19.9 mIU/L (P for trend <0.01) and 1.31 (95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.95) for TSH of 0.10 to 0.44 mIU/L and 1.94 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-3.72) for TSH <0.10 mIU/L (P for trend=0.047). Risks remained similar after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSION: Risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels, particularly for TSH ≥10 and <0.10 mIU/L.