874 resultados para multivariate stochastic volatility


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The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of pre-slaughter handling on the occurrence of PSE (Pale, Soft, and Exudative) meat in swine slaughtered at a commercial slaughterhouse located in the metropolitan region of Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Based on the database (n=1,832 carcasses), it was possible to apply the integrated multivariate analysis for the purpose of identifying, among the selected variables, those of greatest relevance to this study. Results of the Principal Component Analysis showed that the first five components explained 89.28% of total variance. In the Factor Analysis, the first factor represented the thermal stress and fatiguing conditions for swine during pre-slaughter handling. In general, this study indicated the importance of the pre-slaughter handling stages, evidencing those of greatest stress and threat to animal welfare and pork quality, which are transport time, resting period, lairage time before unloading, unloading time, and ambience.

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ABSTRACT This study aimed to develop a methodology based on multivariate statistical analysis of principal components and cluster analysis, in order to identify the most representative variables in studies of minimum streamflow regionalization, and to optimize the identification of the hydrologically homogeneous regions for the Doce river basin. Ten variables were used, referring to the river basin climatic and morphometric characteristics. These variables were individualized for each of the 61 gauging stations. Three dependent variables that are indicative of minimum streamflow (Q7,10, Q90 and Q95). And seven independent variables that concern to climatic and morphometric characteristics of the basin (total annual rainfall – Pa; total semiannual rainfall of the dry and of the rainy season – Pss and Psc; watershed drainage area – Ad; length of the main river – Lp; total length of the rivers – Lt; and average watershed slope – SL). The results of the principal component analysis pointed out that the variable SL was the least representative for the study, and so it was discarded. The most representative independent variables were Ad and Psc. The best divisions of hydrologically homogeneous regions for the three studied flow characteristics were obtained using the Mahalanobis similarity matrix and the complete linkage clustering method. The cluster analysis enabled the identification of four hydrologically homogeneous regions in the Doce river basin.

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Quite often, in the construction of a pulp mill involves establishing the size of tanks which will accommodate the material from the various processes in which case estimating the right tank size a priori would be vital. Hence, simulation of the whole production process would be worthwhile. Therefore, there is need to develop mathematical models that would mimic the behavior of the output from the various production units of the pulp mill to work as simulators. Markov chain models, Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, Mean reversion models with ensemble interaction together with Markov regime switching models are proposed for that purpose.

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In this literature review the theorethical framework of Financial transaction taxes and their assumed effect on market volatility is assessed. The empirical evidence from various studies is compared against the theory and a simple empirical review of the Finnish stock market is conducted. The findings implicate that financial transaction taxes can not reduce volatility and their actual effect on markets is dependend by many other factors as well. Some evidence even suggests that transactions taxes may actually raise volatility.

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This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

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Several papers document idiosyncratic volatility is time-varying and many attempts have been made to reveal whether idiosyncratic risk is priced. This research studies behavior of idiosyncratic volatility around information release dates and also its relation with return after public announcement. The results indicate that when a company discloses specific information to the market, firm’s specific volatility level shifts and short-horizon event-induced volatility vary significantly however, the category to which the announcement belongs is not important in magnitude of change. This event-induced volatility is not small in size and should not be downplayed in event studies. Moreover, this study shows stocks with higher contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility earn lower return after public announcement consistent with “divergence of opinion hypothesis”. While no significant relation is found between EGARCH estimated idiosyncratic volatility and return and also between one-month lagged idiosyncratic volatility and return presumably due to significant jump around public announcement both may provide some signals regarding future idiosyncratic volatility through their correlations with contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility. Finally, the study show that positive relation between return and idiosyncratic volatility based on under-diversification is inadequate to explain all different scenarios and this negative relation after public announcement may provide a useful trading rule.

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Stochastic approximation methods for stochastic optimization are considered. Reviewed the main methods of stochastic approximation: stochastic quasi-gradient algorithm, Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithm and adaptive rules for them, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm. Suggested the model and the solution of the retailer's profit optimization problem and considered an application of the SQG-algorithm for the optimization problems with objective functions given in the form of ordinary differential equation.

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Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.

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Stochastic differential equation (SDE) is a differential equation in which some of the terms and its solution are stochastic processes. SDEs play a central role in modeling physical systems like finance, Biology, Engineering, to mention some. In modeling process, the computation of the trajectories (sample paths) of solutions to SDEs is very important. However, the exact solution to a SDE is generally difficult to obtain due to non-differentiability character of realizations of the Brownian motion. There exist approximation methods of solutions of SDE. The solutions will be continuous stochastic processes that represent diffusive dynamics, a common modeling assumption for financial, Biology, physical, environmental systems. This Masters' thesis is an introduction and survey of numerical solution methods for stochastic differential equations. Standard numerical methods, local linearization methods and filtering methods are well described. We compute the root mean square errors for each method from which we propose a better numerical scheme. Stochastic differential equations can be formulated from a given ordinary differential equations. In this thesis, we describe two kind of formulations: parametric and non-parametric techniques. The formulation is based on epidemiological SEIR model. This methods have a tendency of increasing parameters in the constructed SDEs, hence, it requires more data. We compare the two techniques numerically.

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Volatilization represents an important process in the displacement of pesticides for the environment. The physicochemical properties of the clomazone molecule indicate its relative volatility. Therefore, this study was carried out to assess the volatilization of different clomazone herbicide formulations using bioindicator species. To that end, airtight glass boxes were used with the presence of different clomazone formulations and plant species. The formulations used were Gamit 360 CS(r), Gamit 500 EC(r) and Gamit Star(r). The plant species assessed were maize, sorghum and rice. With the results obtained it is possible to conclude that, among the formulations, Gamit 360 CS(r) has caused less phytotoxicity to the bioindicator species in comparison to the formulations of Gamit 500 EC(r) and Gamit Star(r) formulations. In general, The Gamit 500 EC(r) and Gamit Star(r) have not differed in the phytotoxicity potential for the bioindicator species.

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The aim of this work was the identification of geographic zones suitable for the production of honeys in which pollen grains of Escallonia pulverulenta (Ruiz & Pav.) Pers. (Saxifragaceae) can be detected. The analysis of botanical origin of 240 honey samples produced between La Serena and Puerto Mont (the IV and X Administrative Regions of Chile), allowed the detection of pollen grains of E. pulverulenta in 46 Chilean honeys. The geographic distribution of the honeys studied is presented together with their affinities, through factor analysis and frequency tables. The study was based on the presence of E. pulverulenta pollen. Escallonia pulverulenta pollen percentages oscillated between 0.24% and 78.5%. Seventeen of the studied samples were designated as unifloral - i.e. samples showing more than 45% pollen of a determined plant species. Two of these corresponded to E. pulverulenta (corontillo, madroño or barraco) honeys. The remaining unifloral honeys correspond to 8 samples of Lotus uliginosus Schkuhr (birdsfoot trefoil), 2 samples of Aristotelia chilensis (Molina) Stuntz (maqui) and 1 sample of Escallonia rubra (Ruiz & Pav.) Pers. (siete camisas), Eucryphia cordifolia Cav. (ulmo or muemo), Weinmannia trichosperma Cav. (tineo), Rubus ulmifolius Schott (blackberry) and Brassica rapa L. (turnip). Honeys with different percentages of E. pulverulenta pollen - statistically analyzed through correspondence analysis - could be associated and assigned to one of three geographic types, defined on the basis of this analysis. The geographical type areas defined were the Northern Mediterranean Zone (samples from the IV Region), Central Mediterranean Zone (samples from the V to the VIII regions including two samples of unifloral Escallonia pulverulenta honey), and Southern Mediterranean Zone (samples from the IX Region).

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Genetic distances among cacao cultivars were calculated through multivariate analysis, using the D2 statistic, to examine racial group classification and to assess heterotic hybrids. A 5 x 5 complete diallel was evaluated. Over a five-year period (1986-1990), five cultivars of the S1 generation, pertaining to the Lower Amazon Forastero and Trinitario racial groups and 20 crosses between the corresponding S0 parents were analyzed, based upon five yield components - number of healthy and collected fruits per plant (NHFP and NCFP), wet seed weight per plant and per fruit (WSWP and WSWF), and percentage of diseased fruits per plant (PDFP). The diversity analysis suggested a close relationship between the Trinitario and Lower Amazon Forastero groups. A correlation coefficient (r) was calculated to determine the association between genetic diversity and heterosis. Genetic distance of parents by D2 was found to be linearly related to average performance of hybrids for WSWP and WSWF (r = 0.68, P < 0.05 and r = 0.76, P < 0.05, respectively). The heterotic performance for the same components was also correlated with D2, both with r = 0.66 (P < 0.05). A relationship between genetic divergence and combining ability effects was suggested because the most divergent cultivar exhibited a high general combining ability, generating the best performing hybrids. Results indicated that genetic diversity estimates can be useful in selecting parents for crosses and in assessing relationships among cacao racial groups.