A Strategic-Equilibrium Based

The strategic equilibrium of an N-person cooperative game with transferable utility is a system composed of a cover collection of subsets of N and a set of extended imputations attainable through such equilibrium cover. The system describes a state of coalitional bargaining stability where every player has a bargaining alternative against any other player to support his corresponding equilibrium claim. Any coalition in the sable system may form and divide the characteristic value function of the coalition as prescribed by the equilibrium payoffs. If syndicates are allowed to form, a formed coalition may become a syndicate using the equilibrium payoffs as disagreement values in bargaining for a part of the complementary coalition incremental value to the grand coalition when formed. The emergent well known-constant sum derived game in partition function is described in terms of parameters that result from incumbent binding agreements. The strategic-equilibrium corresponding to the derived game gives an equal value claim to all players.  This surprising result is alternatively explained in terms of strategic-equilibrium based possible outcomes by a sequence of bargaining stages that when the binding agreements are in the right sequential order, von Neumann and Morgenstern (vN-M) non-discriminatory solutions emerge. In these solutions a preferred branch by a sufficient number of players is identified: the weaker players syndicate against the stronger player. This condition is referred to as the stronger player paradox.  A strategic alternative available to the stronger players to overcome the anticipated not desirable results is to voluntarily lower his bargaining equilibrium claim. In doing the original strategic equilibrium is modified and vN-M discriminatory solutions may occur, but also a different stronger player may emerge that has eventually will have to lower his equilibrium claim. A sequence of such measures converges to the equal opportunity for all vN-M solution anticipated by the strategic equilibrium of partition function derived game.    [298-words]

Military empowerment and civilian targeting in civil war

Civilians constitute a large share of casualties in civil wars across the world. They are targeted to create fear and punish allegiance with the enemy. This maximizes collaboration with the perpetrator and strengthens the support network necessary to consolidate control over contested regions. I develop a model of the magnitude and structure of civilian killings in civil wars involving two armed groups who Öght over territorial control. Armies secure compliance through a combination of carrots and sticks. In turn, civilians di§er from each other in their intrinsic preference towards one group. I explore the e§ect of the empowerment of one of the groups in the civilian death toll. There are two e§ects that go in opposite directions. While a direct e§ect makes the powerful group more lethal, there is an indirect e§ect by which the number of civilians who align with that group increases, leaving less enemy supporters to kill. I study the conditions under which there is one dominant e§ect and illustrate the predictions using sub-national longitudinal data for Colombiaís civil war.

Soft budget constraints in a dynamic general equilibrium model

This paper considers an overlapping generations model in which capital investment is financed in a credit market with adverse selection. Lenders’ inability to commit ex-ante not to bailout ex-post, together with a wealthy position of entrepreneurs gives rise to the soft budget constraint syndrome, i.e. the absence of liquidation of poor performing firms on a regular basis. This problem arises endogenously as a result of the interaction between the economic behavior of agents, without relying on political economy explanations. We found the problem more binding along the business cycle, providing an explanation to creditors leniency during booms in some LatinAmerican countries in the late seventies and early nineties.

Aprofitament de residus vegetals per a la concentració i separació d'ions metàl·lics de solucions aquoses

La adsorció sobre carbó actiu és un tractament habitual para a l'eliminació de metalls contaminants d'afluents aquosos. Amb la finalitat de reduir el cost dels tractament actuals s'està estudiant la utilització d'adsorbents de baix cost com a substituts dels sorbents convencionals que s'utilitzen usualment en els tractaments d'aigües. En aquesta tesi s'ha avaluat la possibilitat d'aprofitar diversos residus vegetals procedents de processos agrícoles o residus industrials, com a sorbents per a l'eliminació de metalls de solucions aquoses. En concret, el treball s'ha centrat en assolir dos grans objectius, primer de tot, conèixer la possibilitat d'utilitzar el pinyol d'oliva com a adsorbent de metalls divalents de solucions aquoses, com són el Cd(II), Cu(II), Ni(II) i Pb(II), i en segon lloc, avaluar la utilització de quatre residus vegetals (escorça de yohimbe, rapa de raïm, suro i pinyol d'oliva) per a l'extracció de Cr(VI) de solucions aquoses i utilitzar el residu vegetal més apropiat com a base per tal d'obtenir un nou sorbent, amb més bona morfologia per ser utilitzat en sistemes d'eliminació de Cr(VI) en continu. Les dades cinètiques d'adsorció es van tractar amb el model cinètic de pseudo-segon ordre, amb el que es van determinar la velocitat inicial d'adsorció dels metalls. Els models d'isotermes d'equilibri de Langmuir i Freundlich es van utilitzar per descriure els equilibris d'adsorció i calcular els paràmetres de les isotermes. En els assajos amb mescles binàries de metalls, els resultats es van tractar amb el model ampliat de Langmuir. En aquest treball s'ha determinat, primerament, que el pinyol d'oliva és un bon sorbent dels metalls divalents estudiats. S'ha determinat que l'adsorció dels metalls varia amb el pH de la solució i que la presència de sals en la solució provoca una davallada en l'adsorció. També es va determinar la competència en l'adsorció entre els metalls al realitzar assajos en mescles binàries. Amb els estudis d'extracció de Cr(VI) amb els quatre materials s'ha determinat que aquests vegetals poden adsorbir el Cr(VI) en solució, tot i que la rapa i la yohimbe són els materials que presenten unes capacitats d'adsorció més elevades. Les anàlisis amb espectroscòpia electrònica de Raig-X realitzats en la rapa de raïm i la yohimbe en contacte amb Cr(VI) varen demostrar la presència del metall en els dos estats d'oxidació, Cr(VI) i Cr(III), evidenciant la participació del mecanisme de reducció de Cr(VI) en l'adsorció del metall sobre els materials. Amb l'encapsulació de la rapa de raïm es va incrementar significativament la capacitat d'adsorció del metall respecta a la seva utilització en la forma original. Les dades experimentals es van tractar amb un model de difusió i es va determinar el coeficient de difusió en l'adsorció en el sorbent amb diferent percentatge de rapa en l'interior. Finalment s'han realitzat estudis preliminars d'adsorció de crom hexavalent en continu utilitzant columnes de petites dimensions farcides amb el sorbent format per boles de rapa encapsulada en alginat càlcic. En aquests assajos s'ha determinat l'efecte en l'adsorció de metall de diversos paràmetres d'operació, com la concentració inicial de metall, el cabal i l'alçada de llit. El model de transferència de matèria i difusió en columna emprat pel tractament de les dades experimentals va mostrar l'efecte de la concentració inicial i del cabal en els coeficients de difusió i transferència de matèria. El model BDST no va predir correctament el temps de servei en els diferents paràmetres d'operació experimentats a causa de la complexitat del procés d'adsorció. Amb aquests assajos preliminars s'han establert les bases de l'adsorció de Cr(VI) amb el nou sorbent en sistemes en continu amb la finalitat de realitzar estudis posteriors d'eliminació del metall en columnes de majors dimensions.

Information sources selection methodology for recommender systems based on intrinsic characteristics and trust measure

El treball desenvolupat en aquesta tesi presenta un profund estudi i proveïx solucions innovadores en el camp dels sistemes recomanadors. Els mètodes que usen aquests sistemes per a realitzar les recomanacions, mètodes com el Filtrat Basat en Continguts (FBC), el Filtrat Col·laboratiu (FC) i el Filtrat Basat en Coneixement (FBC), requereixen informació dels usuaris per a predir les preferències per certs productes. Aquesta informació pot ser demogràfica (Gènere, edat, adreça, etc), o avaluacions donades sobre algun producte que van comprar en el passat o informació sobre els seus interessos. Existeixen dues formes d'obtenir aquesta informació: els usuaris ofereixen explícitament aquesta informació o el sistema pot adquirir la informació implícita disponible en les transaccions o historial de recerca dels usuaris. Per exemple, el sistema recomanador de pel·lícules MovieLens (http://movielens.umn.edu/login) demana als usuaris que avaluïn almenys 15 pel·lícules dintre d'una escala de * a * * * * * (horrible, ...., ha de ser vista). El sistema genera recomanacions sobre la base d'aquestes avaluacions. Quan els usuaris no estan registrat en el sistema i aquest no té informació d'ells, alguns sistemes realitzen les recomanacions tenint en compte l'historial de navegació. Amazon.com (http://www.amazon.com) realitza les recomanacions tenint en compte les recerques que un usuari a fet o recomana el producte més venut. No obstant això, aquests sistemes pateixen de certa falta d'informació. Aquest problema és generalment resolt amb l'adquisició d'informació addicional, se li pregunta als usuaris sobre els seus interessos o es cerca aquesta informació en fonts addicionals. La solució proposada en aquesta tesi és buscar aquesta informació en diverses fonts, específicament aquelles que contenen informació implícita sobre les preferències dels usuaris. Aquestes fonts poden ser estructurades com les bases de dades amb informació de compres o poden ser no estructurades com les pàgines web on els usuaris deixen la seva opinió sobre algun producte que van comprar o posseïxen. Nosaltres trobem tres problemes fonamentals per a aconseguir aquest objectiu: 1 . La identificació de fonts amb informació idònia per als sistemes recomanadors. 2 . La definició de criteris que permetin la comparança i selecció de les fonts més idònies. 3 . La recuperació d'informació de fonts no estructurades. En aquest sentit, en la tesi proposada s'ha desenvolupat: 1 . Una metodologia que permet la identificació i selecció de les fonts més idònies. Criteris basats en les característiques de les fonts i una mesura de confiança han estat utilitzats per a resoldre el problema de la identificació i selecció de les fonts. 2 . Un mecanisme per a recuperar la informació no estructurada dels usuaris disponible en la web. Tècniques de Text Mining i ontologies s'han utilitzat per a extreure informació i estructurar-la apropiadament perquè la utilitzin els recomanadors. Les contribucions del treball desenvolupat en aquesta tesi doctoral són: 1. Definició d'un conjunt de característiques per a classificar fonts rellevants per als sistemes recomanadors 2. Desenvolupament d'una mesura de rellevància de les fonts calculada sobre la base de les característiques definides 3. Aplicació d'una mesura de confiança per a obtenir les fonts més fiables. La confiança es definida des de la perspectiva de millora de la recomanació, una font fiable és aquella que permet millorar les recomanacions. 4. Desenvolupament d'un algorisme per a seleccionar, des d'un conjunt de fonts possibles, les més rellevants i fiable utilitzant les mitjanes esmentades en els punts previs. 5. Definició d'una ontologia per a estructurar la informació sobre les preferències dels usuaris que estan disponibles en Internet. 6. Creació d'un procés de mapatge que extreu automàticament informació de les preferències dels usuaris disponibles en la web i posa aquesta informació dintre de l'ontologia. Aquestes contribucions permeten aconseguir dos objectius importants: 1 . Millorament de les recomanacions usant fonts d'informació alternatives que sigui rellevants i fiables. 2 . Obtenir informació implícita dels usuaris disponible en Internet.

A stochastic parameterization for deep convection based on equilibrium statistics

A stochastic parameterization scheme for deep convection is described, suitable for use in both climate and NWP models. Theoretical arguments and the results of cloud-resolving models, are discussed in order to motivate the form of the scheme. In the deterministic limit, it tends to a spectrum of entraining/detraining plumes and is similar to other current parameterizations. The stochastic variability describes the local fluctuations about a large-scale equilibrium state. Plumes are drawn at random from a probability distribution function (pdf) that defines the chance of finding a plume of given cloud-base mass flux within each model grid box. The normalization of the pdf is given by the ensemble-mean mass flux, and this is computed with a CAPE closure method. The characteristics of each plume produced are determined using an adaptation of the plume model from the Kain-Fritsch parameterization. Initial tests in the single column version of the Unified Model verify that the scheme is effective in producing the desired distributions of convective variability without adversely affecting the mean state.

Cholinergic modulation of intrinsic fibre-evoked excitatory transmission contains a nicotinic component in immature but not adult rat piriform cortex, in vitro

The piriform cortex (PC) is highly prone to epileptogenesis, particularly in immature animals, where decreased muscarinic modulation of PC intrinsic fibre excitatory neurotransmission is implicated as a likely cause. However, whether higher levels of acetylcholine (ACh) release occur in immature vs. adult PC remains unclear. We investigated this using in vitro extracellular electrophysiological recording techniques. Intrinsic fibre-evoked extracellular field potentials (EFPs) were recorded from layers II to III in PC brain slices prepared from immature (P14-18) and adult (P>40) rats. Adult and immature PC EFPs were suppressed by eserine (1muM) or neostigmine (1muM) application, with a greater suppression in immature ( approximately 40%) than adult ( approximately 30%) slices. Subsequent application of atropine (1muM) reversed EFP suppression, producing supranormal ( approximately 12%) recovery in adult slices, suggesting that suppression was solely muscarinic ACh receptor-mediated and that some 'basal' cholinergic 'tone' was present. Conversely, atropine only partially reversed anticholinesterase effects in immature slices, suggesting the presence of additional non-muscarinic modulation. Accordingly, nicotine (50muM) caused immature field suppression ( approximately 30%) that was further enhanced by neostigmine, whereas it had no effect on adult EFPs. Unlike atropine, nicotinic antagonists, mecamylamine and methyllycaconitine, induced immature supranormal field recovery ( approximately 20%) following anticholinesterase-induced suppression (with no effect on adult slices), confirming that basal cholinergic 'tone' was also present. We suggest that nicotinic inhibitory cholinergic modulation occurs in the immature rat PC intrinsic excitatory fibre system, possibly to complement the existing, weak muscarinic modulation, and could be another important developmentally regulated system governing immature PC susceptibility towards epileptogenesis.

Does reactive surface area depend on grain size? Results from pH 3, 25 circle C far-from-equilibrium flow-through dissolution experiments on anorthite and biotite

Laboratory determined mineral weathering rates need to be normalised to allow their extrapolation to natural systems. The principle normalisation terms used in the literature are mass, and geometric- and BET specific surface area (SSA). The purpose of this study was to determine how dissolution rates normalised to these terms vary with grain size. Different size fractions of anorthite and biotite ranging from 180-150 to 20-10 mu m were dissolved in pH 3, HCl at 25 degrees C in flow through reactors under far from equilibrium conditions. Steady state dissolution rates after 5376 h (anorthite) and 4992 h (biotite) were calculated from Si concentrations and were normalised to initial- and final- mass and geometric-, geometric edge- (biotite), and BET SSA. For anorthite, rates normalised to initial- and final-BET SSA ranged from 0.33 to 2.77 X 10(-10) mol(feldspar) m(-2) s(-1), rates normalised to initial- and final-geometric SSA ranged from 5.74 to 8.88 X 10(-10) mol(feldspar) m(-2) s(-1) and rates normalised to initial- and final-mass ranged from 0.11 to 1.65 mol(feldspar) g(-1) s(-1). For biotite, rates normalised to initial- and final-BET SSA ranged from 1.02 to 2.03 X 10(-12) mol(biotite) m(-2) s(-1), rates normalised to initial- and final-geometric SSA ranged from 3.26 to 16.21 X 10(-12) mol(biotite) m(-2) s(-1), rates normalised to initial- and final-geometric edge SSA ranged from 59.46 to 111.32 x 10(-12) mol(biotite) m(-2) s(-1) and rates normalised to initial- and final-mass ranged from 0.81 to 6.93 X 10(-12) mol(biotite) g(-1) s(-1). For all normalising terms rates varied significantly (p <= 0.05) with grain size. The normalising terms which gave least variation in dissolution rate between grain sizes for anorthite were initial BET SSA and initial- and final-geometric SSA. This is consistent with: (1) dissolution being dominated by the slower dissolving but area dominant non-etched surfaces of the grains and, (2) the walls of etch pits and other dissolution features being relatively unreactive. These steady state normalised dissolution rates are likely to be constant with time. Normalisation to final BET SSA did not give constant ratios across grain size due to a non-uniform distribution of dissolution features. After dissolution coarser grains had a greater density of dissolution features with BET-measurable but unreactive wall surface area than the finer grains. The normalising term which gave the least variation in dissolution rates between grain sizes for biotite was initial BET SSA. Initial- and final-geometric edge SSA and final BET SSA gave the next least varied rates. The basal surfaces dissolved sufficiently rapidly to influence bulk dissolution rate and prevent geometric edge SSA normalised dissolution rates showing the least variation. Simple modelling indicated that biotite grain edges dissolved 71-132 times faster than basal surfaces. In this experiment, initial BET SSA best integrated the different areas and reactivities of the edge and basal surfaces of biotite. Steady state dissolution rates are likely to vary with time as dissolution alters the ratio of edge to basal surface area. Therefore they would be more properly termed pseudo-steady state rates, only appearing constant because the time period over which they were measured (1512 h) was less than the time period over wich they would change significantly. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Salt marsh morphodynamics: An investigation of tidal flows and marsh channel equilibrium

Although numerous field studies have evaluated flow and transport processes in salt marsh channels, the overall role of channels in delivering and removing material from salt marsh platforms is still poorly characterised. In this paper, we consider this issue based on a numerical hydrodynamic model for a prototype marsh system and on a field survey of the cross-sectional geometry of a marsh channel network. Results of the numerical simulations indicate that the channel transfers approximately three times the volume of water that would be estimated from mass balance considerations alone. Marsh platform roughness exerts a significant influence on the partitioning of discharge between the channel and the marsh platform edge, alters flow patterns on the marsh platform due to its effects on channel-to-platform transfer and also controls the timing of peak discharge relative to marsh-edge overtopping. Although peak channel discharges and velocities are associated with the flood tide and marsh inundation, a larger volume of water is transferred by the channel during ebb flows, a portion of which transfer takes place after the tidal height is below the marsh platform. Detailed surveys of the marsh channels crossing a series of transects at Upper Stiffkey Marsh, north Norfolk, England, show that the total channel cross-sectional area increases linearly with catchment area in the inner part of the marsh, which is consistent with the increase in shoreward tidal prism removed by the channels. Toward the marsh edge, however, a deficit in the total cross-sectional area develops, suggesting that discharge partitioning between the marsh channels and the marsh platform edge may also be expressed in the morphology of marsh channel systems.

Mesoscale simulations of organized convection: importance of convective equilibrium

The validity of convective parametrization breaks down at the resolution of mesoscale models, and the success of parametrized versus explicit treatments of convection is likely to depend on the large-scale environment. In this paper we examine the hypothesis that a key feature determining the sensitivity to the environment is whether the forcing of convection is sufficiently homogeneous and slowly varying that the convection can be considered to be in equilibrium. Two case studies of mesoscale convective systems over the UK, one where equilibrium conditions are expected and one where equilibrium is unlikely, are simulated using a mesoscale forecasting model. The time evolution of area-average convective available potential energy and the time evolution and magnitude of the timescale of convective adjustment are consistent with the hypothesis of equilibrium for case 1 and non-equilibrium for case 2. For each case, three experiments are performed with different partitionings between parametrized and explicit convection: fully parametrized convection, fully explicit convection and a simulation with significant amounts of both. In the equilibrium case, bulk properties of the convection such as area-integrated rain rates are insensitive to the treatment of convection. However, the detailed structure of the precipitation field changes; the simulation with parametrized convection behaves well and produces a smooth field that follows the forcing region, and the simulation with explicit convection has a small number of localized intense regions of precipitation that track with the mid-levelflow. For the non-equilibrium case, bulk properties of the convection such as area-integrated rain rates are sensitive to the treatment of convection. The simulation with explicit convection behaves similarly to the equilibrium case with a few localized precipitation regions. In contrast, the cumulus parametrization fails dramatically and develops intense propagating bows of precipitation that were not observed. The simulations with both parametrized and explicit convection follow the pattern seen in the other experiments, with a transition over the duration of the run from parametrized to explicit precipitation. The impact of convection on the large-scaleflow, as measured by upper-level wind and potential-vorticity perturbations, is very sensitive to the partitioning of convection for both cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2006. Contributions by P. A. Clark and M. E. B. Gray are Crown Copyright.

Interactions of tea tannins and condensed tannins with proteins

Binding parameters for the interactions of four types of tannins: tea catechins, grape seed proanthocyanidins, mimosa 5-deoxy proanthocyanidins,and sorghum procyanidins (mDP=17), with gelatin and bovine serum albumin (BSA) have been determined from isothermal titration calorimetry data. Equilibrium binding constants determined for the interaction with gelatin were in the range 10(4) to 10(6) M-1 and in the order: sorghum procyanidins > grape seed proanthocyanidins > mimosa 5-deoxy proanthocyanidins > tea catechins. Interaction with BSA was generally weaker, with equilibrium binding constants of <= 10(3) M-1 for grape seed proanthocyanidins, mimosa 5-deoxy proanthocyanidins and tea catechins, and 10(4) M-1 for the sorghum procyanidins. In all cases the interactions with proteins were exothermic and involved multiple binding sites on the protein. The data are discussed in relation to the structures and the known nutritional effects of the condensed tannins.