Proposals to increase foot traffic at Sonae Sierra shopping centers

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of large-scale mortgage backed security purchases

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Impairment in the mortagage loan portfolio: The example of Banco Popular portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The international expansion strategy of Striyah in Poland

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

The optimization of the complaints management system

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Determinants of exchange rates: An empirical analysis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Determinants of Portuguese trade: 1986-2010

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

As Dinâmicas do Mercado Imobiliário e os Impactos Territoriais

A política de ordenamento do território tem um papel indispensável na promoção da qualidade dos espaços urbanos e da complementaridade entre os diferentes usos do solo. Contudo, a prossecução destes objetivos tem encontrado vários obstáculos. Esta investigação entende como principal obstáculo o impacto que a especulação imobiliária e o respetivo ciclo de expansão-depressão têm no crescimento dos centros urbanos. O método do “estudo de caso” é aplicado ao município do Entroncamento, onde são evidentes os impactos territoriais resultantes do ciclo imobiliário: (i) excesso de loteamentos com execução residual; (ii) PMOT expansionistas e desfasados da realidade económico-demográfica; e (iii) fragmentação do tecido urbano provocado pelo crescimento em extensão da cidade, com aumento dos custos de manutenção dos equipamentos e infraestruturas. Os impactos referidos são comprovados através do “método da avaliação”, utilizado para averiguar a execução das áreas urbanizáveis projetadas pelos PMOT com apoio complementar de informação obtida junto da CME. A abordagem centrada na escala local é antecedida de uma explicação teórica acerca da formação do ciclo de expansão/depressão, a uma escala macro, onde se percebe a influência da especulação imobiliária na origem da recente crise económico-financeira no mundo ocidental. Por último, são defendidas soluções alternativas, que reforcem o poder de regulação do mercado imobiliário, e consequentemente, contribuam para a minimização dos impactos territoriais analisados. A principal solução é a reformulação do imposto sobre a propriedade (escala macro), com o intuito de centrar a tributação no valor do solo, ao invés do valor da construção. Esta medida desincentiva a retenção especulativa do solo, pelo que beneficia a reabilitação urbana das áreas consolidadas e a respetiva colmatação. Ao mesmo tempo, é uma ferramenta fundamental para alcançar os objetivos do ordenamento do território, pois cria as condições necessárias para planear por antecipação o desenvolvimento futuro dos territórios.

The effect of ownership concentration on management behavior in Belgian banks: A case study

Double Degree. A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master’s Degree in Finance from NOVA – School of Business and Economics and a Masters Degree in Management from Louvain School of Management

Towards an integrated technology management across the rail supply chain extended to society: building the case study on high-speed trains

The present paper was prepared for the course “Project III”, with the supervision of Prof. António Moniz, reporting on the author speaking notes at the Winter School on Technology Assessment, 6-7 December 2010, as part of the Doctoral Programme on Technology Assessment at FCT-UNL.

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

To what extent do aspects of sustainability impact established firms' resilience

An organizations´ level of sustainability has so far been primarily been analyzed within the context of economic performance. This study changes that dependent variable to “resilience”, namely a company’s ability to recover from potential lethal shocks or disruptive events. The research questions aims to investigate whether sustainability and resilience are related. This study utilizes the financial crisis from 2007/08 as disruptive event, as it encompassed market phase-out but also survival by established firms. Two Swiss luxury watchmaking companies have been chosen as industry sample and the study’s investigation is based on a comparative case study approach. The latter applies both quantitative data, in the form of the respective annual company reports, and qualitative data, in the form of semi-structured interviews with three stakeholder groups. Findings indicate that the investigated measures of sustainability are related the investigated companies’ level of resilience. These findings contribute to the building of new theory towards resilience as this study outlines specifically which measures have been proven to be of relevance for companies’ resilience. Moreover, the results are of high relevance for companies that are operating in constant evolving markets and struggling adapting to any disruptive environment as it is outlined why and how comparative companies have to be sustainable in order to become more resilient towards future shocks.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.