Efficient designs for sampling and subsampling in fisheries research based on ranked sets

Sampling strategies are developed based on the idea of ranked set sampling (RSS) to increase efficiency and therefore to reduce the cost of sampling in fishery research. The RSS incorporates information on concomitant variables that are correlated with the variable of interest in the selection of samples. For example, estimating a monitoring survey abundance index would be more efficient if the sampling sites were selected based on the information from previous surveys or catch rates of the fishery. We use two practical fishery examples to demonstrate the approach: site selection for a fishery-independent monitoring survey in the Australian northern prawn fishery (NPF) and fish age prediction by simple linear regression modelling a short-lived tropical clupeoid. The relative efficiencies of the new designs were derived analytically and compared with the traditional simple random sampling (SRS). Optimal sampling schemes were measured by different optimality criteria. For the NPF monitoring survey, the efficiency in terms of variance or mean squared errors of the estimated mean abundance index ranged from 114 to 199% compared with the SRS. In the case of a fish ageing study for Tenualosa ilisha in Bangladesh, the efficiency of age prediction from fish body weight reached 140%.

Structural basis for the function of anti-idiotypic antibody in immune memory

We had earlier proposed a hypothesis to explain the mechanism of perpetuation of immunological memory based on the operation of idiotypic network in the complete absence of antigen. Experimental evidences were provided for memory maintenance through anti-idiotypic antibody (Ab(2)) carrying the internal image of the antigen. In the present work, we describe a structural basis for such memory perpetuation by molecular modeling and structural analysis studies. A three-dimensional model of Ab(2) was generated and the structure of the antigenic site on the hemagglutinin protein H of Rinderpest virus was modeled using the structural template of hemagglutinin protein of Measles virus. Our results show that a large portion of heavy chain containing the CDR regions of Ab(2) resembles the domain of the hemagglutinin housing the epitope regions. The similarity demonstrates that an internal image of the H antigen is formed in Ab(2), which provides a structural basis for functional mimicry demonstrated earlier. This work brings out the importance of the structural similarity between a domain of hemagglutinin protein to that of its corresponding Ab(2). It provides evidence that Ab(2) is indeed capable of functioning as surrogate antigen and provides support to earlier proposed relay hypothesis which has provided a mechanism for the maintenance of immunological memory.

Problems of Proto-Slavic Historical Nominal Morphology : On the Basis of Old Church Slavic

In this study I offer a diachronic solution for a number of difficult inflectional endings in Old Church Slavic nominal declensions. In this context I address the perhaps most disputed and the most important question of the Slavic nominal inflectional morphology: whether there was in Proto-Slavic an Auslautgesetz (ALG), a law of final syllables, that narrowed the Proto-Indo-European vowel */o/ to */u/ in closed word-final syllables. In addition, the work contains an exhaustive morphological classification of the nouns and adjectives that occur in canonical Old Church Slavic. I argue that Proto-Indo-European */o/ became Proto-Slavic */u/ before word-final */s/ and */N/. This conclusion is based on the impossibility of finding credible analogical (as opposed to phonological) explanations for the forms supporting the ALG hypothesis, and on the survival of the neuter gender in Slavic. It is not likely that the */o/-stem nominative singular ending */-u/ was borrowed from the accusative singular, because the latter would have been the only paradigmatic form with the stem vowel */-u-/. It is equally unlikely that the ending */-u/ was borrowed from the */u/-stems, because the latter constituted a moribund class. The usually stated motivation for such an analogical borrowing, i.e. a need to prevent the merger of */o/-stem masculines with neuters of the same class, is not tenable. Extra-Slavic, as well as intra-Slavic evidence suggests that phonologically-triggered mergers between two semantically opaque genders do not tend to be prevented, but rather that such mergers lead to the loss of the gender opposition in question. On the other hand, if */-os/ had not become */-us/, most nouns and, most importantly, all adjectives and pronouns would have lost the formal distinction between masculines and neuters. This would have necessarily resulted in the loss of the neuter gender. A new explanation is given for the most apparent piece of evidence against the ALG hypothesis, the nominative-accusative singular of the */es/-stem neuters, e.g. nebo 'sky'. I argue that it arose in late Proto-Slavic dialects, replacing regular nebe, under the influence of the */o/- and */yo/-stems where a correlation had emerged between a hard root-final consonant and the termination -o, on the one hand, and a soft root-final consonant and the termination -e, on the other.

Adsorption isitherms for neutral organic compounds-A hierarchy in modelling: Part IV. Charge of maximum adsorption-Statistical mechanical basis

The charge at which adsorption of orgamc compounds attains a maximum ( \sigma MAX M) at an electrochenucal interface is analysed using several multi-state models in a hierarchical manner The analysis is based on statistical mechamcal results for the following models (A) two-state site parity, (B) two-state muhl-slte, and (C) three-state site parity The coulombic interactions due to permanent and reduced dipole effects (using mean field approximation), electrostatic field effects and specific substrate interactions have been taken into account. The simplest model in the hierarchy (two-state site parity) yields the exphcit dependence of ( \sigma MAX M) on the permanent dipole moment, polarizability of the solvent and the adsorbate, lattice spacing, effective coordination number, etc Other models in the baerarchy bring to hght the influence of the solvent structure and the role of substrate interactions, etc As a result of this approach, the "composition" of oM.x m terms of the fundamental molecular constants becomes clear. With a view to use these molecular results to maxamum advantage, the derived results for ( \sigma MAX M) have been converted into those involving experimentally observable parameters lake Co, C 1, E N, etc Wherever possible, some of the earlier phenomenologlcal relations reported for ( \sigma MAX M), notably by Parsons, Damaskm and Frumkln, and Trasattl, are shown to have a certain molecular basis, vlz a simple two-state sate panty model.As a corollary to the hxerarcbacal modelling, \sigma MAX M and the potential corresponding to at (Emax) are shown to be constants independent of 0max or Corg for all models The lmphcatlon of our analysis f o r OmMa x with respect to that predicted by the generalized surface layer equation (which postulates Om~ and Ema x varlaUon with 0) is discussed in detail Finally we discuss an passing o M. and the electrosorptlon valency an this context.

Anisotropic gaussian beams

Anisotropic gaussian beams are obtained as exact solutions to the parabolic wave equation. These beams have a quadratic phase front whose principal radii of curvature are non-degenerate everywhere. It is shown that, for the lowest order beams, there exists a plane normal to the beam axis where the intensity distribution is rotationally symmetric about the beam axis. A possible application of these beams as normal modes of laser cavities with astigmatic mirrors is noted.

Structural Basis of Drug Resistance by Genetic Variants of HIV Type 1 Clade C Protease from India

Using computer modeling of three-dimensional structures and structural information available on the crystal structures of HIV-1 protease, we investigated the structural effects of mutations, in treatment-naive and treatment-exposed individuals from India and postulated mechanisms of resistance in clade C variants. A large number of models (14) have been generated by computational mutation of the available crystal structures of drug bound proteases. Localized energy minimization was carried out in and around the sites of mutation in order to optimize the geometry of interactions present. Most of the mutations result in structural differences at the flap that favors the semiopen state of the enzyme. Some of the mutations were also found to confer resistance by affecting the geometry of the active site. The E35D mutation affects the flap structure in clade B strains and E35N and E35K mutation, seen in our modeled strains, have a more profound effect. Common polymorphisms at positions 36 and 63 in clade C also affected flap structure. Apart from a few other residues Gln-58, Asn-83, Asn-88, and Gln-92 and their interactions are important for the transition from the closed to the open state. Development of protease inhibitors by structure-based design requires investigation of mechanisms operative for clade C to improve the efficacy of therapy.

Using simulation techniques to investigate methods to determine resistance of helminths to anthelmintic treatment

The widespread and increasing resistance of internal parasites to anthelmintic control is a serious problem for the Australian sheep and wool industry. As part of control programmes, laboratories use the Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test (FECRT) to determine resistance to anthelmintics. It is important to have confidence in the measure of resistance, not only for the producer planning a drenching programme but also for companies investigating the efficacy of their products. The determination of resistance and corresponding confidence limits as given in anthelmintic efficacy guidelines of the Standing Committee on Agriculture (SCA) is based on a number of assumptions. This study evaluated the appropriateness of these assumptions for typical data and compared the effectiveness of the standard FECRT procedure with the effectiveness of alternative procedures. Several sets of historical experimental data from sheep and goats were analysed to determine that a negative binomial distribution was a more appropriate distribution to describe pre-treatment helminth egg counts in faeces than a normal distribution. Simulated egg counts for control animals were generated stochastically from negative binomial distributions and those for treated animals from negative binomial and binomial distributions. Three methods for determining resistance when percent reduction is based on arithmetic means were applied. The first was that advocated in the SCA guidelines, the second similar to the first but basing the variance estimates on negative binomial distributions, and the third using Wadley’s method with the distribution of the response variate assumed negative binomial and a logit link transformation. These were also compared with a fourth method recommended by the International Co-operation on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Veterinary Medicinal Products (VICH) programme, in which percent reduction is based on the geometric means. A wide selection of parameters was investigated and for each set 1000 simulations run. Percent reduction and confidence limits were then calculated for the methods, together with the number of times in each set of 1000 simulations the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been said to occur. These simulations provide the basis for setting conditions under which the methods could be recommended. The authors show that given the distribution of helminth egg counts found in Queensland flocks, the method based on arithmetic not geometric means should be used and suggest that resistance be redefined as occurring when the upper level of percent reduction is less than 95%. At least ten animals per group are required in most circumstances, though even 20 may be insufficient where effectiveness of the product is close to the cut off point for defining resistance.

Social skills, expectancies, and drinking in adolescents

Research in the field of teenage drinking behavior has shown relationships between both social skills and drinking and alcohol expectancies and drinking. The present research investigated the comparative power of both of these sets of variables in predicting teenage drinking behavior, as well as looking at the contribution of more global cognitive structures. It was hypothesised that adolescents with high alcohol involvement would be discriminated from those with low involvement on the basis of social skills, cognitive structures, and alcohol expectancies. Seven hundred thirty-two adolescents participated in the study. Results indicated that adolescent alcohol involvement was associated with social skills deficits, positive alcohol expectancies, and negative cognitive structures concerning parents and teachers. The results revealed that, although the bulk of the variance in drinking behavior was explained by the independent effects of social skills and expectancies, the interaction of the two constructs explained an additional and significant proportion of the variance. Implications for preventive and treatment programs are discussed.

Exact evaluation of Gaussian path integrals involving non-local potentials

An exact expression for the calculation of gaussian path integrals involving non-local potentials is given. Its utility is demonstrated by using it to evaluate a path integral arising in the study of an electron gas in a random potential.

Accelerating Pseudo-Marginal MCMC using Gaussian Processes

Pseudo-marginal methods such as the grouped independence Metropolis-Hastings (GIMH) and Markov chain within Metropolis (MCWM) algorithms have been introduced in the literature as an approach to perform Bayesian inference in latent variable models. These methods replace intractable likelihood calculations with unbiased estimates within Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The GIMH method has the posterior of interest as its limiting distribution, but suffers from poor mixing if it is too computationally intensive to obtain high-precision likelihood estimates. The MCWM algorithm has better mixing properties, but less theoretical support. In this paper we propose to use Gaussian processes (GP) to accelerate the GIMH method, whilst using a short pilot run of MCWM to train the GP. Our new method, GP-GIMH, is illustrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility and a gene network model.

Invited paper Application of the least mean fourth (LMF) adaptive algorithm to signals associated with gaussian noise

This paper considers the applicability of the least mean fourth (LM F) power gradient adaptation criteria with 'advantage' for signals associated with gaussian noise, the associated noise power estimate not being known. The proposed method, as an adaptive spectral estimator, is found to provide superior performance than the least mean square (LMS) adaptation for the same (or even lower) speed of convergence for signals having sufficiently high signal-to-gaussian noise ratio. The results include comparison of the performance of the LMS-tapped delay line, LMF-tapped delay line, LMS-lattice and LMF-lattice algorithms, with the Burg's block data method as reference. The signals, like sinusoids with noise and stochastic signals like EEG, are considered in this study.

A comparison of plotless density estimators using Monte Carlo simulation on totally enumerated field data sets

Background: Plotless density estimators are those that are based on distance measures rather than counts per unit area (quadrats or plots) to estimate the density of some usually stationary event, e.g. burrow openings, damage to plant stems, etc. These estimators typically use distance measures between events and from random points to events to derive an estimate of density. The error and bias of these estimators for the various spatial patterns found in nature have been examined using simulated populations only. In this study we investigated eight plotless density estimators to determine which were robust across a wide range of data sets from fully mapped field sites. They covered a wide range of situations including animal damage to rice and corn, nest locations, active rodent burrows and distribution of plants. Monte Carlo simulations were applied to sample the data sets, and in all cases the error of the estimate (measured as relative root mean square error) was reduced with increasing sample size. The method of calculation and ease of use in the field were also used to judge the usefulness of the estimator. Estimators were evaluated in their original published forms, although the variable area transect (VAT) and ordered distance methods have been the subjects of optimization studies. Results: An estimator that was a compound of three basic distance estimators was found to be robust across all spatial patterns for sample sizes of 25 or greater. The same field methodology can be used either with the basic distance formula or the formula used with the Kendall-Moran estimator in which case a reduction in error may be gained for sample sizes less than 25, however, there is no improvement for larger sample sizes. The variable area transect (VAT) method performed moderately well, is easy to use in the field, and its calculations easy to undertake. Conclusion: Plotless density estimators can provide an estimate of density in situations where it would not be practical to layout a plot or quadrat and can in many cases reduce the workload in the field.

Assessing organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems : Methodological evidence from studies in nuclear power plant maintenance organizations

Failures in industrial organizations dealing with hazardous technologies can have widespread consequences for the safety of the workers and the general population. Psychology can have a major role in contributing to the safe and reliable operation of these technologies. Most current models of safety management in complex sociotechnical systems such as nuclear power plant maintenance are either non-contextual or based on an overly-rational image of an organization. Thus, they fail to grasp either the actual requirements of the work or the socially-constructed nature of the work in question. The general aim of the present study is to develop and test a methodology for contextual assessment of organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems. This is done by demonstrating the findings that the application of the emerging methodology produces in the domain of maintenance of a nuclear power plant (NPP). The concepts of organizational culture and organizational core task (OCT) are operationalized and tested in the case studies. We argue that when the complexity of the work, technology and social environment is increased, the significance of the most implicit features of organizational culture as a means of coordinating the work and achieving safety and effectiveness of the activities also increases. For this reason a cultural perspective could provide additional insight into the problem of safety management. The present study aims to determine; (1) the elements of the organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems; (2) the demands the maintenance task sets for the organizational culture; (3) how the current organizational culture at the case organizations supports the perception and fulfilment of the demands of the maintenance work; (4) the similarities and differences between the maintenance cultures at the case organizations, and (5) the necessary assessment of the organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems. Three in-depth case studies were carried out at the maintenance units of three Nordic NPPs. The case studies employed an iterative and multimethod research strategy. The following methods were used: interviews, CULTURE-survey, seminars, document analysis and group work. Both cultural analysis and task modelling were carried out. The results indicate that organizational culture in complex sociotechnical systems can be characterised according to three qualitatively different elements: structure, internal integration and conceptions. All three of these elements of culture as well as their interrelations have to be considered in organizational assessments or important aspects of the organizational dynamics will be overlooked. On the basis of OCT modelling, the maintenance core task was defined as balancing between three critical demands: anticipating the condition of the plant and conducting preventive maintenance accordingly, reacting to unexpected technical faults and monitoring and reflecting on the effects of maintenance actions and the condition of the plant. The results indicate that safety was highly valued at all three plants, and in that sense they all had strong safety cultures. In other respects the cultural features were quite different, and thus the culturally-accepted means of maintaining high safety also differed. The handicraft nature of maintenance work was emphasised as a source of identity at the NPPs. Overall, the importance of safety was taken for granted, but the cultural norms concerning the appropriate means to guarantee it were little reflected. A sense of control, personal responsibility and organizational changes emerged as challenging issues at all the plants. The study shows that in complex sociotechnical systems it is both necessary and possible to analyse the safety and effectiveness of the organizational culture. Safety in complex sociotechnical systems cannot be understood or managed without understanding the demands of the organizational core task and managing the dynamics between the three elements of the organizational culture.

Analysis of randomly time varying systems by gaussian closure technique

The Gaussian probability closure technique is applied to study the random response of multidegree of freedom stochastically time varying systems under non-Gaussian excitations. Under the assumption that the response, the coefficient and the excitation processes are jointly Gaussian, deterministic equations are derived for the first two response moments. It is further shown that this technique leads to the best Gaussian estimate in a minimum mean square error sense. An example problem is solved which demonstrates the capability of this technique for handling non-linearity, stochastic system parameters and amplitude limited responses in a unified manner. Numerical results obtained through the Gaussian closure technique compare well with the exact solutions.