Cheap dates and the delusion of gratification: are votes sold or traded in the EU Council of Ministers?

Each year, small Member States receive a disproportionate share of the European Union's (EU's) budget. A prominent explanation for this is that Council decision-making involves a healthy dose of vote selling, whereby large Member States offer small states generous fiscal transfers in exchange for influence over policy. But nobody has investigated whether net budget contributors actually get anything for their money. In this paper I identify the vote selling model's observable implications and find virtually no evidence consistent with Council cash-for-votes exchanges. I also show that a compromise model – the leading model of EU decision-making to date – modified to incorporate vote selling does not outperform a standard one that assumes votes are traded rather than sold. Taken together, the results suggest that Council decision-making operates with little or no vote selling, and that regardless of whatever they think they might be buying, net budget contributors get little or nothing in return for their money. These findings call for further investigation into how Member States approach the issue of fiscal transfers, and into the factors other than formal voting weight that affect the power of actors engaged in EU decision-making.

Before transparency: control and communication in Early-Modern Europe

Today, transparency is hailed as a key to good governance and economic efficiency, with national states implementing new laws to allow citizens access to information. It is therefore paradoxical that, as shown by a series of crises and scandals, modern governments and international agencies frequently have paid only lip-service to such ideals. Since Jeremy Bentham first introduced the concept of transparency into the language in 1789, few societal debates have sparked so much interest within the academic community, and across a variety of disciplines, using different approaches and methodologies. Within these current debates, however, one fact is striking: the lack of historical reflection about the development of the concept of transparency, both as a principle and as applied in practice, prior to its inception. Accordingly, the aim of this special issue is to contribute to historicising the ways in which communication and control over fiscal policy and state finances operated in early modern European polities.

The politics of fiscal policy during economic downturns, 1981-2010

This article investigates fiscal policy responses to the Great Recession in historical perspective. We explore general trends in the frequency, size and composition of fiscal stimulus as well as the impact of government partisanship on fiscal policy outputs during the four international recessions of 1980-81, 1990-91, 2001-02 and 2008-09. Encompassing 17-23 OECD countries, our analysis calls into question the idea of a general retreat from fiscal policy activism since the early 1980s. The propensity of governments to respond to economic downturns by engaging in fiscal stimulus has increased over time and we do not observe any secular trend in the size of stimulus measures. At the same time, OECD governments have relied more on tax cuts to stimulate demand in the two recessions of the 2000s than they did in the early 1980s or early 1990s. Regarding government partisanship, we do not find any significant direct partisan effects on either the size or the composition of fiscal stimulus for any of the four recession episodes. However, the size of the welfare state conditioned the impact of government partisanship in the two recessions of the 2000s, with Left-leaning governments distinctly more prone to engage in discretionary fiscal stimulus and/or spending increases in large welfare states, but not in small welfare states.

The electronic and optical properties of sodalite (Na(8)Al(6)Si(6)O(24)Cl(2)) from first principles

This study reports the results of ab initio electronic and optical calculations for pure socialite crystal using the linear augmented plane wave (LAPW) method within density functional theory (DFT). The calculated electronic structure revealed predominantly orbital characters of the valence band and the conduction band, and enabled us to determine the type and the value of the fundamental gap of the compound. The imaginary part of the dielectric tensor, extinction coefficient and refraction index were calculated as functions of the incident radiation wavelength. It is shown that the O 2p states and Na 3s states play the major role in optical transitions as initial and final states, respectively. The absorption spectrum is localized in the ultraviolet range between 40 and 250 nm. Furthermore, we concluded that the material does not absorb radiation in the visible range. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electronic Structure and Chemical Bonding in the Lowest Electronic States of TcN

Multiconfiguration second-order perturbation theory, with the inclusion of relativistic effects and spin-orbit Coupling, was employed to investigate the nature of the ground and low-lying Lambda-S and Omega states of the TcN molecule. Spectroscopic constants, effective bond order, and potential energy curves for 13 low-lying Lambda-S states and 5 Omega states are given, The computed ground state of TcN is of Omega = 3 symmetry (R(e) = 1.605 angstrom and omega(e) = 1085 cm(-1)), originating mainly from the (3)Delta Lambda-S ground state. This result is contrasted with the nature of the ground state for other VIIB transtion-metal mononitrides, including X(3)Sigma(-) symmetry for MnN and Omega = 0(+) symmetry for ReN, derived also from a X(3)Sigma(-) state.

The low-lying electronic states of BeP: a reliable and accurate quantum mechanical prediction

A very high level of theoretical treatment (complete active space self-consistent field CASSCF/MRCI/aug-cc-pV5Z) was used to characterize the spectroscopic properties of a manifold of quartet and doublet states of the species BeP, as yet experimentally unknown. Potential energy curves for 11 electronic states were obtained, as well as the associated vibrational energy levels, and a whole set of spectroscopic constants. Dipole moment functions and vibrationally averaged dipole moments were also evaluated. Similarities and differences between BeN and BeP were analysed along with the isovalent SiB species. The molecule BeP has a X (4)Sigma(-) ground state, with an equilibrium bond distance of 2.073 angstrom, and a harmonic frequency of 516.2 cm(-1); it is followed closely by the states (2)Pi (R(e) = 2.081 angstrom, omega(e) = 639.6 cm(-1)) and (2)Sigma(-) (R(e) = 2.074 angstrom, omega(e) = 536.5 cm(-1)), at 502 and 1976 cm(-1), respectively. The other quartets investigated, A (4)Pi (R(e) = 1.991 angstrom, omega(e) = 555.3 cm(-1)) and B (4)Sigma(-) (R(e) = 2.758 angstrom, omega(e) = 292.2 cm(-1)) lie at 13 291 and 24 394 cm(-1), respectively. The remaining doublets ((2)Delta, (2)Sigma(+)(2) and (2)Pi(3)) all fall below 28 000 cm(-1). Avoided crossings between the (2)Sigma(+) states and between the (2)Pi states add an extra complexity to this manifold of states.

Electronic Structure and Chemical Bonding in the Ground and Low-Lying Electronic States of Ta(2)

The electronic structure and chemical bonding of the ground and low-lying Lambda - S and Omega states of Ta(2) were investigated at the multiconfiguration second-order perturbation theory (CASSCF//CASPT2) level. The ground state of Ta(2) is computed to be a X(3)Sigma(-)(g) state (R(e) = 2.120 angstrom, omega(e) = 323 cm(-1), and D(e) = 4.65 eV), with two low-lying singlet states close to it (a(1) Sigma(+)(g) : T(e) = 409 cm(-1), R(e) = 2.131 angstrom, and omega(e) = 313 cm(-1); b(1) Gamma(g): T(e) = 1, 038 cm(-1), R(e) = 2.127 angstrom, and omega(e) = 316 cm(-1)). These electronic states are derived from the same electronic configuration: vertical bar 13 sigma(2)(g)14 sigma(2)(g)7 delta(2)(g)13 pi(4)(u)>. The effective bond order of the X(3) Sigma(-)(g) state is 4.52, which indicates that the Ta atoms are bound by a quintuple chemical bond. The a(1) Sigma(+)(g) state interacts strongly with the X(3)Sigma(-)(g) g ground state by a second-order spin-orbit interaction, giving rise to the (1)0(g)(+) (ground state) (dominated by the X(3)Sigma(-)(g) Lambda - S ground state) and (9)0(g)(+) (dominated by the a(1) Sigma(+)(g) Lambda - S state) Omega states. These results are in line with those reported for the group 5B homonuclear transition metal diatomics. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Quantum Chem 111: 1306-1315, 2011

De oauktoriserade migranterna i svensk byggnadssektor : En studie i deportationspolitik 1990–2004

The unauthorized migrants in the Swedish construction sector – a study in the policy of deportation 1990–2004 The unauthorized migration of construction workers to Sweden increased during the 1990s, especially at the end of the decade. The migrants often came from Poland and the Baltic states. The aim of this article is to examine this change of the migration pattern to Sweden and how the Swedish Building Workers Union responded to this new situation. I examine how the Building Workers Union cooperated with the Police authorities to find, capture and deport unauthorized migrants. A conclusion is that the Building Workers Union has not adopted a more inclusionary strategy towards unauthorized migrants, as have trade unions in Spain and US. The main strategy has instead been to try to restrict this migration. One explanation of this is that the Building Workers Union is a strong and well organized trade union. It didn’t perceive of unauthorized migrants as potential new members, but as a threat to wages and work conditions. Another explanation is that it has been able to restrict migration in the past. This may contribute to making demands for restrictions an attractive strategy in the present even when the possibilities of succeeding with this have diminished.

Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

As demonstrações financeiras em US GAAP tomadas como instrumento gerencial da CST: um estudo de caso

A finalidade desta pesquisa é avaliar as demonstrações financeiras da CST preparadas de acordo com os princípios contábeis geralmente aceitos nos Estados Unidos, como um instrumento de tomada de decisões, pela administração da CST, ao invés dos demonstrativos preparados de acordo com os princípios contábeis geralmente aceitos no Brasil. Como estudo de caso da CST, os seus relatórios financeiros, incluindo demonstrações financeiras, relatórios de administração, press release, e outros, relacionados ao periodo de 1994 a 2000, constituem a base desta pesquisa. As informações de tais documentos foram comparadas e analisadas. Também, foi necessário pesqUIsar sobre as principais regras contábeis do Brasil e dos Estados Unidos que afetam o resultado deste estudo. Alguns livros sobre contabilidade e finanças de ambos os paises, Brasil e Estados Unidos, foram também usados como uma base conceitual. A partir dos resultados obtidos foi possível conhecer a influência das diferenças de princípios contábeis e, aSSIm avaliar quaIs demonstrações contábeis, brasileiras ou amencanas, são mats consistentes para finalidades gerenCIatS, considerando as caracteristicas da CST.

Dominância fiscal e suas implicações sobre a política monetária no Brasil: uma análise do período 1999 - 2005

O grau de liberdade da política monetária é uma questão muito relevante em um país que decide adotar um regime de metas inflacionárias e câmbio flutuante. Caso a autoridade monetária desse país não tenha liberdade para atuar, o regime de metas pode ser ineficiente. Em especial, caso esse país se encontre numa situação de Dominância Fiscal, a política monetária pode ter efeitos perversos sobre a relação dívida/PIB, aumentando seu prêmio de risco soberano e causando um aumento na probabilidade de default implícita em seus títulos soberanos. O intuito desse trabalho é realizar o teste de dominância a partir de um modelo proposto por Olivier Blanchard em 2004, e testar primeiro se o país se encontrava em dominância em 2002, 2003 e depois analisar o resultado desse modelo até novembro de 2005. Algumas modificações de variáveis utilizadas, medidas de risco e taxa de juros são propostas e é acrescido ao modelo um teste de estabilidade de coeficientes e a incerteza causada no período eleitoral em 2002. Além disso, é analisada a reação do Banco Central no período, para identificar se sua reação compartilhava da visão de dominância que o modelo original apresentava ou não. A conclusão é que o Brasil, mesmo após as alterações sugeridas, ainda se encontra numa situação de dominância fiscal segundo a descrição do modelo. Porém, o resultado final é cerca de 20% do originalmente observado em 2004, resultando em uma liberdade de atuação significativamente maior para a autoridade monetária no Brasil em 2002 e 2003. O Banco Central parece ter reagido a mudanças de expectativa de inflação e não parecia compartilhar um diagnóstico de dominância fiscal ao longo de 2002. As eleições foram significativas para explicar aumento da probabilidade de default, mas não alteram significativamente o resultado do teste após as mudanças de variáveis. A medida de risco proposta resulta em um modelo melhor para medir dominância no Brasil. A mensagem final é que o Brasil ainda precisa se preocupar com as restrições fiscais, mas elas são menores que o modelo original propunha.

Política fiscal nos estados brasileiros e a lei de responsabilidade fiscal: uma análise do tipo de ajuste e da composição do gasto público

O trabalho analisa a trajetória da política fiscal dos Estados brasileiros entre os anos de 1986 e 2008, período que compreende a realização de um expressivo ajuste fiscal no Brasil e busca identificar qual o tipo de ajuste praticado pelos Estados, conceituados de acordo com o referencial teórico conhecido como “visão expectacional da política fiscal”. De forma complementar, o trabalho analisa se ao longo do processo de ajuste as metas de evolução da política fiscal, definidas pela Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal, foram cumpridas. Desta forma, este trabalho se propõe a contribuir com o tema relacionado às finanças públicas brasileiras, em especial à análise das finanças dos governos subnacionais, e visa destacar o comportamento das contas públicas dos Estados brasileiros no período proposto. O trabalho está organizado em três capítulos. No primeiro capítulo é analisada a evolução das ações legais e institucionais que influenciaram e determinaram aos Estados brasileiros uma nova postura fiscal. O capítulo II traz o referencial teórico que na literatura ficou conhecido como “visão expectacional da política fiscal”, que sugere que determinados ajustes fiscais podem ter efeitos expansionistas sobre o nível de atividade econômica. O capítulo III procura analisar as contas dos Estados nos períodos assinalados para identificar o tipo do ajuste fiscal praticado. O objetivo é analisar a composição dos ajustes praticados, seus efeitos sobre as contas públicas dos Estados, e finalmente identificar o tipo de ajuste praticado. Complementarmente é analisado se os indicadores impostos pela Lei de responsabilidade Fiscal estão sendo cumpridos pelos Estados.

Investment coordination failures and the confidence channel of fiscal policy

Este trabalho desenvolve um novo "canal de Confiança" da política fiscal e caracteriza a política ótima quando esse canal é levado em consideração. Para esse objetivo, utilizamos um modelo estático com (i) concorrência monopolística, (ii) custos de ajustamento fixos para investir, (iii) complementaridade estratégica devido a informação imperfeita com respeito a produtividade agregada, e (iv) bens privados como substitutos imperfeitos de bens privados. Este arcabouço acomoda a possibilidade de falhas de coordenação nos investimentos, mas apresenta um equilíbrio único. Mostramos que a política fiscal tem efeitos importantes na coordenação. Um aumento dos gastos do governo leva a uma maior demanda por bens privados. Mais importante, este também afeta as expectativas de ordem superior com relação a demanda das demais firmas, que amplifica os efeitos do aumento inicial da demanda devido a complementaridade estratégica nas decisões de investimento. Como as demais firmas estão se deparam com uma demanda maior, espera-se que estas invistam mais, que por sua vez, aumenta a demanda individual de cada firma, que aumenta os incentivos a investir. Denominamos isto como o "canal de confiança" da política fiscal. Sob a ameaça de falhas de coordenação, a política fiscal ótima prescreve produzir além do ponto em que o benefício marginal resultante do consumo de bens públicos é igual ao custo marginal desses bens. Este benefício adicional vem do fato de que a política fiscal pode ampliar a coordenação dos investimentos.

The effect of financiaI repression & enforcernent on entrepreneurship and economic deveIopment

This paper studies the effect of financiaI repression and contract enforcement on entrepreneurship and economic development. We construct and solve a general equilibrium mo deI with heterogeneous agents, occupational choice and two financiaI frictions: intermediation costs and financiaI contract enforcement. Occupational choice and firm size are determined endogenously, and depend on agent type (wealth and ability) and the credit market frictions. The mo deI shows that differences across countries in intermediation costs and enforcement generate differences in occupational choice, firm size, credit, output and inequality. Counterfactual experiments are performed for Latin American, European, transition and high growth Asian countries. We use empirical estimates of each country's financiaI frictions, and United States values for all other parameters. The results allow us to isolate the quantitative effect of these financiaI frictions in explaining the performance gap between each country and the United States. The results depend critically on whether à general equilibrium factor price effect is operative, which in turn depends on whether financiaI markets are open or closed. This yields a positive policy prescription: If the goal is to maximize steady-state efficiency, financial reforms should be accompanied by measures to increase financiaI capital mobility.

Taylor rule with hidden states

This work evaluates empirically the Taylor rule for the US and Brazil using Kalman Filter and Markov-Switching Regimes. We show that the parameters of the rule change significantly with variations in both output and output gap proxies, considering hidden variables and states. Such conclusions call naturally for robust optimal monetary rules. We also show that Brazil and US have very contrasting parameters, first because Brazil presents time-varying intercept, second because of the rigidity in the parameters of the Brazilian Taylor rule, regardless the output gap proxy, data frequency or sample data. Finally, we show that the long-run inflation parameter of the US Taylor rule is less than one in many periods, contrasting strongly with Orphanides (forthcoming) and Clarida, Gal´i and Gertler (2000), and the same happens with Brazilian monthly data.