Towards a knowledge-based approach for effective decision-making in railway safety

Purpose – This paper aims to contribute towards understanding how safety knowledge can be elicited from railway experts for the purposes of supporting effective decision-making. Design/methodology/approach – A consortium of safety experts from across the British railway industry is formed. Collaborative modelling of the knowledge domain is used as an approach to the elicitation of safety knowledge from experts. From this, a series of knowledge models is derived to inform decision-making. This is achieved by using Bayesian networks as a knowledge modelling scheme, underpinning a Safety Prognosis tool to serve meaningful prognostics information and visualise such information to predict safety violations. Findings – Collaborative modelling of safety-critical knowledge is a valid approach to knowledge elicitation and its sharing across the railway industry. This approach overcomes some of the key limitations of existing approaches to knowledge elicitation. Such models become an effective tool for prediction of safety cases by using railway data. This is demonstrated using passenger–train interaction safety data. Practical implications – This study contributes to practice in two main directions: by documenting an effective approach to knowledge elicitation and knowledge sharing, while also helping the transport industry to understand safety. Social implications – By supporting the railway industry in their efforts to understand safety, this research has the potential to benefit railway passengers, staff and communities in general, which is a priority for the transport sector. Originality/value – This research applies a knowledge elicitation approach to understanding safety based on collaborative modelling, which is a novel approach in the context of transport.

Is there really "nothing you can do"? Pathways to enhanced flood-risk preparedness

Whilst policy makers have tended to adopt an ‘information-deficit model’ to bolster levels of flood-risk preparedness primarily though communication strategies promoting awareness, the assumed causal relation between awareness and preparedness is empirically weak. As such, there is a growing interest amongst scholars and policy makers alike to better understand why at-risk individuals are underprepared. In this vein, empirical studies, typically employing quantitative methods, have tended to focus on exploring the extent to which flood-risk preparedness levels vary depending not only on socio-demographic variables, but also (and increasingly so) the perceptual factors that influence flood risk preparedness. This study builds upon and extends this body of research by offering a more solution-focused approach that seeks to identify how pathways to flood-risk preparedness can be opened up. Specifically, through application of a qualitative methodology, we seek to explore how the factors that negatively influence flood-risk preparedness can be addressed to foster a shift towards greater levels of mitigation behaviour. In doing so, we focus our analysis on an urban community in Ireland that is identified as ‘at risk’ of flash flooding and is currently undergoing significant flood relief works. In this regard, the case study offers an interesting laboratory to explore how attitudes towards flood-risk preparedness at the individual level are being influenced within the context of a flood relief scheme that is only partially constructed. In order to redress the dearth of theoretically informed qualitative studies in this field, we draw on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to help guide our analysis and make sense of our results. Our findings demonstrate that flood-risk preparedness can be undermined by low levels of efficacy amongst individuals in terms of the preparedness measures available to them and their own personal capacity to implement them. We also elucidate that the ‘levee effect’ can occur before engineered flood defences are fully constructed as the flood relief works within our case study are beginning to affect people’s perception of flood risk in the case study area. We conclude by arguing that 1) individuals’ coping appraisals need to be enhanced through communication strategies and other interventions which highlight that future floods may not replicate past events; and 2) the concept of residual risk needs to be communicated at all stages of a flood relief scheme, not just upon completion.

Towards a better understanding of flood-risk preparedness: A typological review

Preparedness has become a central component to contemporary approaches to flood risk management as there is a growing recognition that our reliance on engineered flood defences is unsustainable within the context of more extreme and unpredictable weather events. Whilst many researchers have focused their attention on exploring the key factors influencing flood-risk preparedness at the individual level, little consideration has been attributed to how we understand preparedness conceptually and practically in the first instance. This paper seeks to address this particular gap by identifying and analysing the diverse range of conceptualisations of preparedness and typologies of preparedness measures that exist within the literature in order to identify areas of convergence and divergence. In doing so, we demonstrate that a considerable degree of confusion remains in terms of how preparedness is defined, conceptualised and categorised. We conclude by reflecting on the implications this has from an academic perspective, but also in terms of the more practical aspects of flood risk management.

Troponin I and cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population: the BiomarCaRE consortium

AIMS: Our aims were to evaluate the distribution of troponin I concentrations in population cohorts across Europe, to characterize the association with cardiovascular outcomes, to determine the predictive value beyond the variables used in the ESC SCORE, to test a potentially clinically relevant cut-off value, and to evaluate the improved eligibility for statin therapy based on elevated troponin I concentrations retrospectively.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project, we analysed individual level data from 10 prospective population-based studies including 74 738 participants. We investigated the value of adding troponin I levels to conventional risk factors for prediction of cardiovascular disease by calculating measures of discrimination (C-index) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We further tested the clinical implication of statin therapy based on troponin concentration in 12 956 individuals free of cardiovascular disease in the JUPITER study. Troponin I remained an independent predictor with a hazard ratio of 1.37 for cardiovascular mortality, 1.23 for cardiovascular disease, and 1.24 for total mortality. The addition of troponin I information to a prognostic model for cardiovascular death constructed of ESC SCORE variables increased the C-index discrimination measure by 0.007 and yielded an NRI of 0.048, whereas the addition to prognostic models for cardiovascular disease and total mortality led to lesser C-index discrimination and NRI increment. In individuals above 6 ng/L of troponin I, a concentration near the upper quintile in BiomarCaRE (5.9 ng/L) and JUPITER (5.8 ng/L), rosuvastatin therapy resulted in higher absolute risk reduction compared with individuals <6 ng/L of troponin I, whereas the relative risk reduction was similar.

CONCLUSION: In individuals free of cardiovascular disease, the addition of troponin I to variables of established risk score improves prediction of cardiovascular death and cardiovascular disease.

ART attrition across health facilities implementing Option B+ in Haiti

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Networking for conservation: social capital and perceptions of organizational success among land trust boards

As an important component in collaborative natural resource management and nonprofit governance, social capital is expected to be related to variations in the performance of land trusts. Land trusts are charitable organizations that work to conserve private land locally, regionally, or nationally. The purpose of this paper is to identify the level of structural and cognitive social capital among local land trusts, and how these two types of social capital relate to the perceived success of land trusts. The analysis integrates data for land trusts operating in the U.S. south-central Appalachian region, which includes western North Carolina, southwest Virginia, and east Tennessee. We use factor analysis to elicit different dimensions of cognitive social capital, including cooperation among board members, shared values, common norms, and communication effectiveness. Measures of structural social capital include the size and diversity of organizational networks of both land trusts and their board members. Finally, a hierarchical linear regression model is employed to estimate how cognitive and structural social capital measures, along with other organizational and individual-level attributes, relate to perceptions of land trust success, defined here as achievement of the land trusts’ mission, conservation, and financial goals. Results show that the diversity of organizational partnerships, cooperation, and shared values among land trust board members are associated with higher levels of perceived success. Organizational capacity, land trust accreditation, volunteerism, and financial support are also important factors influencing perceptions of success among local, nonprofit land trusts.

A internacionalização de empresas pela AIDA para os PALOP e/ou Brasil-Ceará

O presente trabalho tem como propósito responder a questão "qual o interesse estratégico de empresas do distrito de Aveiro se internacionalizarem para os Países Africanos de Língua Oficial Portuguesa (PALOP) e/ ou Brasil - Ceará?". O objeto de estudo surgiu após a integração num estágio curricular na AIDA - Associação Industrial do Distrito de Aveiro - e levou à revisão da literatura dos temas estratégia e internacionalização, assim como ao trabalho de campo (6 entrevistas a colaboradoras da AIDA), proporcionando as componentes conceptual e empírica. Verificou-se que o setor de atividade é fundamental para o sucesso das empresas nas missões. Designadamente, bastantes empresas ligadas ao setor metalomecânico, que tendem a recorrer a estes mercados dos PALOP e/ ou Brasil - Ceará, alcançaram, em muitos casos, o sucesso - isto é, a concretização de negócios com novos clientes e / ou o investimento direto nesses países. O contributo do presente trabalho reside também na perspetiva, resultante de um inquérito desenvolido no âmbito do estágio no Gabinete de Relações Exteriores da AIDA, de que ainda que se verifique uma janela de oportunidade para algumas das empresas nos referidos mercados (PALOP e Brasil - Ceará), entende-se que, para o sucesso efetivo destas empresas, outras formas de empreender poderiam ser colocadas em prática, nomeadamente alianças estratégicas entre pequenas e médias empresas (PME) de setores semelhantes, a nível local (Portugal), para competirem a nível internacional com os respetivos líderes de mercado. Desta forma, sugere-se lutar pela competitividade não só nos PALOP mas também nos mercados desenvolvidos, tais como Alemanha, Estados Unidos da América e/ ou países escandinavos - pois somente com clientes exigentes e com a pressão de concorrentes fortes poder-se-ão criar indústrias desenvolvidas e capazes de competir ao mais elevado nível e pelos melhores clientes, com poder de compra e fontes de inovação (Porter, 1990). Estas lições parecem, por ezes, esquecidas, mas segundo Gibbs (2007) um dos propósitos da investigação é também o de lembrar o que foi esquecido e/ ou ignorado. As entrevistas realizadas ofereceram contributo na medida em que proporcionam a compreensão dos motivos para as empresas portuguesas escolherem estes mercados, das razões para o sucesso ou insucesso nos PALOP e/ ou Brasil - Ceará, do investimento e esforço por parte das entidades não-governamentais portuguesas em internacionalizar empresas do setor da metalomecânica, das forças e fraquezas das missões empresariais, de que aspetos fazem da AIDA um agente de mudança e das áreas em que poderia haver maior diligência por parte da AIDA.São também sugeridas recomendações a associação, entre outras, a inclusão das questões culturais de cada país nos estudos de mercado não só sobre PALOP e Brasil - Ceará, mas também nos estudos de mercado do distrito de Aveiro, assim como de Portugal, para fazer divulgação a potenciais importadores; melhoria de processos, implementando-se um software de gestão/ partilha de conhecimento das várias oportunidades de negócio, rentabilizando o processo de estabelecimento de interesse em realizar negócio, no âmbito do EEN (Entelprise Eumpe Netwrk); intervenção na plataforma do IAPMEI por informáticos habilitados; e armazenamento de dados em cloud storage - um serviço do género da Dropbox, de modo a rentabilizar o tempo dispendido, assim como a tornar as pastas acedidas via intranet mais pequenas.

Development of the edible blend films with good mechanical and barrier properties from pea starch and guar gum

The individual and interactive impacts of guar gum and glycerol on the pea starch-based edible film characteristics were examined using three factors with three level Box–Behnken response surface design. The results showed that density and elongation at break were only significantly (p < 0.05) affected by pea starch and guar gum in a positive linear fashion. The quadratic regression coefficient of pea starch showed a significant effect (p < 0.05) on thickness, density, puncture force, water vapour permeability, and tensile strength. While tensile strength and Young modulus affected by the quadratic regression coefficient of glycerol and guar gum, respectively. The results were analysed using Pareto analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the developed predictive equations for each response variable presented reliable and satisfactory fit with high coefficient of determination (R2) values (≥ 0.96). The optimized conditions with the goal of maximizing mechanical properties and minimizing water vapour permeability were 2.5 g pea starch, 0.3 g guar gum and 25 % (w/w) glycerol based on the dry film matter in 100 ml of distilled water. Generally, changes in the concentrations of pea starch, guar gum and glycerol resulted in changes in the functional properties of film.

Bicultural individuals as workforce in Australian MNCs

This study focuses on bicultural individuals as workforce in multinational companies in Australia. The aim of the study is to research the role of these individuals in these companies, with three sub-questions; to research (bi)cultural identity biculturals have, exploiting biculturals’ competencies in multinational companies, and challenges in managing biculturals in these companies. The main theoretical concepts related to this research are biculture and a cross-cultural work environment. Furthermore, discussing biculturals as part of workforce in MNCs, by presenting opportunities and challenges, has been taken into account. The empirical part for the research was collected by semi-structured interviews between January and March 2016. The findings of this study suggest that the role of biculturals in MNCs is not established. Biculturals can be viewed as appreciated workforce but MNCs lack recognition and awareness of biculturals’ competencies. The competencies of biculturals’ are related to bicultural identity integration and sometimes competencies can be latent. Competencies bicultural individuals possess are often related to cultural knowledge, cultural frame switching, understanding and perception towards others. Australia as a nation faces cultural diversity daily but the potential behind it remains fairly untouched even on the individual level. The potential is everywhere but a more universal approach how to handle the potential still remains vague for most. There seem to be different approaches to diversity and to biculturalism, which lead to either advantage or challenge. It is found that in case the potential is recognized the result is more likely positive. Challenges may still occur yet if challenges are managed appropriately the company may be able to learn from them. Alternatively, ignorance is more likely to cause challenges that lead to a loss of resources. Biculturalism is not achieved overnight, as it was emphasized throughout this study, which highlights the role of competencies. For the future research it is necessary to find approaches how to enhance awareness and highlight possibilities, to capture currently lost potential.

The +Contigo Project in the Voice of Eight-Grade Students

The +Contigo Project is a longitudinal research project based on a multilevel network intervention aimed at promoting mental health and well-being and preventing suicidal behaviors. Students participate in social skills training sessions on the stigma of mental disorders, adolescence, self-esteem, problem-solving skills, and wellbeing. Problem statement: To identify the qualitative impact of the +Contigo Project. Objectives: To identify the importance of the project for students, the problem situations which it helped to solve, and its impact on an individual level. Research methods: Content analysis (Bardin, 2009) with a posteriori categorical identification. Semi-structured interview guide with 5 questions. A convenience sample of 16 students, from three schools of one school cluster in the Center Region of Portugal, was used. The ethical aspects of parental consent, voluntary participation and data confidentiality were addressed. Findings: Fourteen categories emerged from the data analysis. The answers to Question 4 'How was this project important to you?' were particularly relevant. Students mentioned that it improved their self-esteem by increasing self-confidence and interpersonal skills, and that it increased their reflection and awareness on problems with which they learned how to cope during the sessions. Conclusions: All interviewees considered that the +Contigo project helped them to solve problems, improve their interpersonal skills and cope with the adolescence period. Students improved their self-esteem and self-knowledge, and were able to apply what they had learned in the sessions in their daily lives. We concluded that the project had a positive impact on the students' mental health.

A importância da qualidade na avaliação em formato a distância

Relatório de estágio para obtenção do grau de mestre em Educação e Comunicação Multimédia

Heritage Language Maintenance and Biliteracy Development for Immigrants' Children: A Study of Chinese Immigrants' Family Language Policy and Biliteracy Practices

This study reports on research that examines the family language policy (FLP) and biliteracy practices of middle-class Chinese immigrant families in a metropolitan area in the southwest of the U.S. by exploring language practices pattern among family members, language and literacy environment at home, parents’ language management, parents’ language attitudes and ideologies, and biliteracy practices. In this study, I employed mixed methods, including survey and interviews, to investigate Chinese immigrant parents’ FLP, biliteracy practices, their life stories, and their experience of raising and nurturing children in an English-dominant society. Survey questionnaires were distributed to 55 Chinese immigrant parents and interviews were conducted with five families, including mothers and children. One finding from this study is that the language practices pattern at home shows the trend of language shift among the Chinese immigrants’ children. Children prefer speaking English with parents, siblings, and peers, and home literacy environment for children manifests an English-dominant trend. Chinese immigrant parents’ language attitudes and ideologies are largely influenced by English-only ideology. The priority for learning English surpasses the importance of Chinese learning, which is demonstrated by the English-dominant home literacy practices and an English-dominant language policy. Parents invest more in English literacy activities and materials for children, and very few parents implement Chinese-only policy for their children. A second finding from this study is that a multitude of factors from different sources shape and influence Chinese immigrants’ FLP and biliteracy practices. The factors consist of family-related factors, social factors, linguistic factors, and individual factors. A third finding from this study is that a wide variety of strategies are adopted by Chinese immigrant families, which have raised quite balanced bilingual children, to help children maintain Chinese heritage language (HL) and develop both English and Chinese literacy. The close examination and comparison of different families with English monolingual children, with children who have limited knowledge of HL, and with quite balanced bilingual children, this study discovers that immigrant parents, especially mothers, play a fundamental and irreplaceable role in their children’s HL maintenance and biliteracy development and it recommends to immigrant parents in how to implement the findings of this study to nurture their children to become bilingual and biliterate. Due to the limited number and restricted area and group of participant sampling, the results of this study may not be generalized to other groups in different contexts.

Género, idade e antiguidade na empresa : Uma análise comparativa de contracto psicológico.

Poucos são os estudos que relacionam variáveis de nível individual como o género, idade e antiguidade na empresa, com a percepção de contracto psicológico, no entanto para além destas variáveis moldarem o conteúdo do contracto psicológico (Guest, 2004), parecem também determinar diferentes valores e interesses de trabalho (Elizur, 1994; Bal, Lange, Jansen e Velde, 2008). Tais evidências chamam a atenção das organizações para o facto de diferentes grupos de trabalhadores apresentarem diferentes percepções de contracto psicológico, podendo consequentemente responder de diferente forma às mesmas políticas organizacionais (Freese & Schalk, 1996). O presente estudo procurou perceber se diferentes grupos de trabalhadores, de diferentes géneros, idades e antiguidades apresentam diferentes percepções de contracto psicológico, procurando posteriormente aceder às causas percebidas de quebra de contracto (Renegação, Disrupção, Incongruência e Anulação), mencionadas na literatura por Rousseau (1995) e Morrinson e Robinson (1997). Foi utilizada uma amostra, recolhida por conveniência, de 83 participantes pertencentes a uma empresa do sector alimentar, constituída por 57,8% de mulheres e 42,2% de homens. Em média possuem 37 anos de idade e 9 anos de antiguidade na empresa. Foi aplicado um questionário, desenvolvido por Lester, Turnley, Bloodgood e Bolino (2002) constituído por diferentes dimensões (Compensação, Recompensas com base na performance, Características da Função, Progressão e Desenvolvimento, Recursos e Relação Laboral) que constituem o contracto psicológico, assim como pelas diferentes causas percebidas de incumprimento da promessa. Após uma análise factorial, foram extraídos 5 factores (Características da Função, Relação Laboral, Compensação, Recursos e Progressão e Recompensas com base na performance). Os resultados demonstraram que os trabalhadores mais velhos percepcionam que a sua empresa lhes proporciona menos do que o prometido relativamente à Compensação, resultados igualmente obtidos para os trabalhadores com mais antiguidade na empresa. Uma posterior análise correlacional demonstrou que a idade está associada com a antiguidade dos trabalhadores. Quanto à causa percebida de incumprimento, os resultados evidenciaram que a maioria dos trabalhadores atribui o incumprimento das promessas à Renegação. Por outras palavras, os trabalhadores entendem que a sua organização não cumpriu as promessas que lhes fez, simplesmente porque assim o quis.

Pre-colonial institutions and long-run development in Latin America

The present doctoral thesis studies the association between pre-colonial institutions and long-run development in Latin America. The thesis is organised as follows: Chapter 1 places the motivation of the thesis by underlying relevant contributions in the literature on long-run development. I then set out the main objective of the thesis, followed by a brief outline of it. In Chapter 2, I study the effects of pre-colonial institutions on present-day socioeconomic outcomes for Latin America. The main thesis of this chapter is that more advanced pre-colonial institutions relate to better socioeconomic outcomes today - principally, but not only, through their effects on the Amerindian population. I test such hypothesis with a dataset of 324 sub-national administrative units covering all mainland Latin American countries. The extensive range of controls covers factors such as climate, location, natural resources, colonial activities and pre-colonial characteristics - plus country fixed effects. Results strongly support the main thesis. In Chapter 3, I further analyse the association between pre-colonial institutions and present-day economic development in Latin America by using the historical ethnic homelands as my main unit of analysis. The main hypothesis is that ethnic homelands inhabited by more advanced ethnic groups -as measured by their levels of institutional complexity- relate to better economic development today. To track these long-run effects, I construct a new dataset by digitising historiographical maps allowing me to pinpoint the geospatial location of ethnic homelands as of the XVI century. As a result, 375 ethnic homelands are created. I then capture the levels of economic development at the ethnic homeland level by making use of alternative economic measures --satellite light density data. After controlling for country-specific characteristics and applying a large battery of geographical, locational, and historical factors, I found that the effects of pre-colonial institutions relate to a higher light density --as a proxy for economic activity- in ethnic homelands where more advanced ethnic groups lived. In Chapter 4, I explore a mechanism linking the persistence of pre-colonial institutions in Latin America over the long-run: Colonial and post-colonial strategies along with the ethnic political capacity worked in tandem allowing larger Amerindian groups to "support" the new political systems in ways that would benefit their respective ethnic groups as well as the population at large. This mechanism may have allowed the effects of pre-colonial institutions to influence socioeconomic development outcomes up to today. To shed lights on this mechanism, I combine the index of pre-colonial institutions prepared for the second chapter of the present thesis with individual-level survey data on people's attitudes. By controlling for key observable and unobservable country-specific characteristics, the main empirical results show that areas with a history of more advanced pre-colonial institutions increase the probability of individuals supporting present-day political institutions. Finally, in Chapter 5, I summarise the main findings of the thesis, and emphasise the key weaknesses of the study as well as potential avenues for future research.

L’engagement au développement professionnel des infirmières œuvrant en centre hospitalier universitaire : une étude qualitative descriptive

Le développement professionnel (DP) des infirmières est essentiel et déterminant dans l’obtention d’une meilleure qualité de soins. Pour se réaliser, le développement professionnel nécessite un engagement individuel des infirmières elles-mêmes. Or, une disparité est observée en centre hospitalier universitaire (CHU) entre la volonté exprimée par les infirmières de poursuivre leur DP et leur assiduité dans les activités de développement offertes par les organisations. L’objectif de cette étude qualitative est de décrire la perception des infirmières œuvrant en CHU (n=8) en regard des facteurs organisationnels susceptibles de favoriser leur engagement à poursuivre leur développement professionnel. Cette analyse a été effectuée à partir de huit entrevues individuelles semi-dirigées réalisées auprès d’infirmières œuvrant dans le secteur de chirurgie du CHU Sainte-Justine. Les résultats démontrent que de nombreux facteurs organisationnels et individuels. Les principaux facteurs influant sur l’engagement des infirmières sont : a) un environnement favorable au DP; b) l’accessibilité au DP et; c) des modalités de DP variées. Les modalités les plus favorables sont celles favorisant leur autonomie et incitant leur implication. En conclusion, pour obtenir un maximum d’engagement des infirmières, les organisations doivent présenter une offre de DP variée et structurée, répondant aux besoins professionnels des infirmières, tout en mitigeant l’impact des contraintes liées à leur fonction et à leur vie personnelle.