UV dosimeter based on dichloroindophenol and tin(IV) oxide

A UVB specific dosimeter is described comprising: a redox dye (2,6-dichloroindophenol, DCIP), a semiconductor ( tin(IV) oxide, SnO2) and a sacrificial electron donor ( glycerol) dispersed in a polymer ( hydroxy ethyl cellulose, HEC) film. The dosimeter is blue in the absence of UVB light but rapidly loses colour on exposure to UVB light. The spectral characteristics of a typical UVB dosimeter film and the mechanism by which the colour change occurs are detailed. DCIP UVB dosimeter films exhibit a response that is related to the irradiance level and duration of UVB exposure, the level of SnO2 present and to a lesser extent the level of glycerol present. The response of the dosimeter appears to be independent of dye concentration and film thickness. Furthermore, DCIP UVB dosimeter films respond to solar simulated light, exhibiting a colour loss that can be simply related to the Minimal Erythemal Dose (MED) exposure for skin type II. As a consequence, such indicators have potential for measuring solar radiation exposure and providing an early warning of erythema for most Caucasian skin (i.e. skin type II).

DNA damage induction in dry and hydrated DNA by synchrotron radiation

Radiation biophysics has sought to understand at a molecular level, the mechanisms through which ionizing radiations damage DNA, and other molecules within living cells. The complexity of lesions produced in the DNA by ionizing radiations is thought to depend on the amount of energy deposited at the site of each lesion. To study the relationship between the energy deposited and the damage produced, we have developed novel techniques for irradiating dry prasmid DNA, partially re-hydrated DNA and DNA in solution using monochromatic vacuum-UV synchrotron radiation. We have used photons in the energy range 7-150 eV, corresponding to the range of energies typically involved in the efficient production of DNA single-strand (SSB), and double-strand breaks (DSB) by ionizing radiation. The data show that both types of breaks are produced at all energies investigated (with, or without water present). Also, the energy dependence for DSB induction follows a similar trend to SSB induction but at a 20-30-fold reduced incidence, suggesting a common precursor for both types of damage. Preliminary studies where DNA has been irradiated in solution indicate a change in the shape of the dose-effect curve (from linear, to linear-quadratic for double-strand break induction) and a large increase in sensitivity due to the presence of water.

Critical energies for ssb and dsb induction in plasmid DNA by vacuum-UV photons: an arrangement for irradiating dry or hydrated DNA with monochromatic photons

Purpose: Theoretical modelling techniques are often used to simulate the action of ionizing radiations on cells at the nanometre level, Using monoenergetic vacuum-UV (VUV) radiation to irradiate DNA either dry or humidified, the action spectra for the induction of DNA damage by low energy photons and the role of water and can be studied. These data provide inputs for the theoretical models.

Ataxia-telangiectasia-mutated (ATM) and NBS1-dependent phosphorylation of Chk1 on Ser-317 in response to ionizing radiation

In mammals, the ATM (ataxia-telangiectasia-mutated) and ATR (ATM and Rad3-related) protein kinases function as critical regulators of the cellular DNA damage response. The checkpoint functions of ATR and ATM are mediated, in part, by a pair of checkpoint effector kinases termed Chk1 and Chk2. In mammalian cells, evidence has been presented that Chk1 is devoted to the ATR signaling pathway and is modified by ATR in response to replication inhibition and UV-induced damage, whereas Chk2 functions primarily through ATM in response to ionizing radiation (IR), suggesting that Chk2 and Chk1 might have evolved to channel the DNA damage signal from ATM and ATR, respectively. We demonstrate here that the ATR-Chk1 and ATM-Chk2 pathways are not parallel branches of the DNA damage response pathway but instead show a high degree of cross-talk and connectivity. ATM does in fact signal to Chk1 in response to IR. Phosphorylation of Chk1 on Ser-317 in response to IR is ATM-dependent. We also show that functional NBS1 is required for phosphorylation of Chk1, indicating that NBS1 might facilitate the access of Chk1 to ATM at the sites of DNA damage. Abrogation of Chk1 expression by RNA interference resulted in defects in IR-induced S and G(2)/M phase checkpoints; however, the overexpression of phosphorylation site mutant (S317A, S345A or S317A/S345A double mutant) Chk1 failed to interfere with these checkpoints. Surprisingly, the kinase-dead Chk1 (D130A) also failed to abrogate the S and G(2) checkpoint through any obvious dominant negative effect toward endogenous Chk1. Therefore, further studies will be required to assess the contribution made by phosphorylation events to Chk1 regulation. Overall, the data presented in the study challenge the model in which Chk1 only functions downstream from ATR and indicate that ATM does signal to Chk1. In addition, this study also demonstrates that Chk1 is essential for IR-induced inhibition of DNA synthesis and the G(2)/M checkpoint.

The effect of pantethine and ultraviolet-B radiation on the development of lenticular opacity in the emory mouse.

PURPOSE: Few studies have examined the impact of long-term treatments or exposures on the development of cataract in maturity-onset animal models. We studied the effect of treatment with D-pantethine and exposure to ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation on the development of lenticular opacity in the Emory mouse. METHODS: A total of 164 Emory mice were randomized by litter at weaning to exposure to UVB light at 12 mJ/cm(2) for 6 hr/day (UV) or usual room light (A), and within litter, were further randomized to bi-weekly intra-peritoneal injections of 0.8 g/kg pantethine (T) or no treatment (C). Retro illumination lens photos were taken at 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 months after weaning, and graded in masked fashion. The animals were sacrificed at 10 months and the lenses analyzed for total pantethine and total cysteamine. RESULTS: Lens pantethine and cysteamine levels were significantly (P < 0.001) higher for the T as compared to C litters. Mean cataract grade increased monotonically over time for all four groups. Unadjusted mean grade for the AT group at 8 (1.32) and 10 (1.86) months appeared lower than for the other groups (AC: 2.17, 2.39; UVC: 1.77, 2.40; UVT: 1.88, 2.37). However, the mean grade for the pantethine-treated litters did not differ significantly from the untreated litters except at 2 months (when untreated litters had significantly lower grades), when adjusting for UV treatment, gender and litter effect. No significant difference in cataract score existed between UV-exposed and ambient litters. Mortality was higher among pantethine-treated (hazard ratio = 1.8, p = 0.05) and UV-exposed animals (hazard ratio = 1.8, p = 0. 03) than among the untreated and unexposed litters. CONCLUSION: Significantly increased lens levels of pantethine are achieved with long-term intra-peritoneal dosing. The impact of pantethine on the progression of lenticular opacity in the Emory mouse is less than has been reported in other models. This level of chronic UVB exposure appeared to have no effect on the development of cataract in this model.

Photodegradation of sertraline by solar radiation and influencing factors

Photodegradation is considered to be one of the most important processes of elimination of pharmaceutical drugs from natural water matrices. The high consumption and discharge of these substances, in particular antidepressants, to the aquatic environment supports the need to study degradation processes. This dissertation aimed at studying the direct and indirect photodegradation of sertraline, an antidepressant known for its persistence in the environment, and the evaluation of the influence of environmentally relevant factors in its photodegradation. The photodegradation experiments were developed under simulated solar light and the irradiation times converted to summer sunny days (SSD), an equivalent time in natural environmental conditions. The direct photodegradation was evaluated in solutions of sertraline prepared in ultrapure water and the indirect photodegradation was studied through the addition of photosensitizers (humic substances, Fe(III), nitrates and oxygen). Further irradiation studies were perfomed in aqueous samples collected from two wastewater treatment plants, Vouga river and Ria de Aveiro. The samples were chemically characterized (dissolved organic carbon, nitrates and nitrites and iron determination and UV/Vis spectroscopy). The quantification of sertraline was done by HPLC-UV and photoproducts from direct photodegradation were identified by electrospray mass spectrometry. An observed direct photodegradation rate of sertraline of 0.0062 h-1 was determined, corresponding to a half-life time of 111 h (equivalent to 29 SSD). A significant influence of photosensitizers was observed, the best results being achieved in irradiations of sertraline with humic acids, obtaining a half-life time of 12 h. This was attributed to the hydrophobicity of this substance and higher absortivity in the UV/Vis wavelength, which promote processes of indirect photodegradation. The degradation of sertraline in natural samples was also enhanced comparatively to the direct photodegradation, achieving half-life times between 10 and 25h; the best results were achieved in samples from the primary treatment of a wastewater treatment plant and Ria de Aveiro, with half-life times of 10 and 16 h, respectively. A total of six photoproducts formed during the direct photodegradation of sertraline were identified, three of which were not yet identified in the literature. The main factors contributing to the degradation of sertraline were analysed but this was not fully accomplished, requiring further studies of the composition of the natural matrices and the combined influence of distinct photosensitizers during the irradiation. Nevertheless, it was concluded that the photodegradation of sertraline is greatly influenced by indirect photodegradation processes, promoted by the presence of photosensitizers.

Modelling of Ultraviolet and Vissible Emissions in Comets

Comets are the spectacular objects in the night sky since the dawn of mankind. Due to their giant apparitions and enigmatic behavior, followed by coincidental calamities, they were termed as notorious and called as `bad omens'. With a systematic study of these objects modern scienti c community understood that these objects are part of our solar system. Comets are believed to be remnant bodies of at the end of evolution of solar system and possess the material of solar nebula. Hence, these are considered as most pristine objects which can provide the information about the conditions of solar nebula. These are small bodies of our solar system, with a typical size of about a kilometer to a few tens of kilometers orbiting the Sun in highly elliptical orbits. The solid body of a comet is nucleus which is a conglomerated mixture of water ice, dust and some other gases. When the cometary nucleus advances towards the Sun in its orbit the ices sublimates and produces the gaseous envelope around the nucleus which is called coma. The gravity of cometary nucleus is very small and hence can not in uence the motion of gases in the cometary coma. Though the cometary nucleus is a few kilometers in size they can produce a transient, extensive, and expanding atmosphere with size several orders of magnitude larger in space. By ejecting gas and dust into space comets became the most active members of the solar system. The solar radiation and the solar wind in uences the motion of dust and ions and produces dust and ion tails, respectively. Comets have been observed in di erent spectral regions from rocket, ground and space borne optical instruments. The observed emission intensities are used to quantify the chemical abundances of di erent species in the comets. The study of various physical and chemical processes that govern these emissions is essential before estimating chemical abundances in the coma. Cameron band emission of CO molecule has been used to derive CO2 abundance in the comets based on the assumption that photodissociation of CO2 mainly produces these emissions. Similarly, the atomic oxygen visible emissions have been used to probe H2O in the cometary coma. The observed green ([OI] 5577 A) to red-doublet emission ([OI] 6300 and 6364 A) ratio has been used to con rm H2O as the parent species of these emissions. In this thesis a model is developed to understand the photochemistry of these emissions and applied to several comets. The model calculated emission intensities are compared with the observations done by space borne instruments like International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and also by various ground based telescopes.

Studies On The Effect Of Laser Radiation And Other Mutagens On Plants

The effect of lasers of three wavelengths in the visible region - 476, 488 and 514 nm on mitotic and meiotic cell divisions, growth, yield and activity of specific enzymes were studied in two taxonomically diverse plant species — A/lium cepa L. and Vicia faba. The effect of laser exposures was compared with the effect of two physical mutagens (Gamma and Ultraviolet radiations) and two chemical mutagens (Ethyl Methane Sulphonate and Hydroxyl amine). The study indicated that lasers could be mutagenic causing aberration in the mitotic and meiotic cell divisions while also producing changes in the growth and yield of the plants. Lasers of higher wavelengths 488 and 514 nm caused aberrations in the early stages of mitotic cell division whereas lasers of lower wavelengths (476 nm) caused more aberrations in the later stages of mitotic cell division. Laser exposure of 488 nm wavelength at power density 400 mW induced higher mitotic and meiotic aberrations and also induced higher pollen sterility than lasers of 476 and 514 nm. The frequency of mitotic aberrations induced by lasers was lesser than that caused by y-irradiation but comparable to that induced by EMS and HA. Lasers cause mutations in higher frequencies than UV. Lasers had a stimulatory effect on growth and yield in both plant species. This stimulatory effect of lasers on germination could not however be correlated to the activity of amylase and protease, the key enzymes in seed gennination. Enzymes such as peroxidase and catalase, involved in scavenging of free oxygen radicals often produced by irradiation, did not show increased activity in laser irradiated samples. Further studies are required for elucidating the exact mechanisms by which lasers cause mutations

Development of hybrid UV VCSEL with organic active material and dielectric DBR mirrors for medical, sensoric and data storage applications

Lasers play an important role for medical, sensoric and data storage devices. This thesis is focused on design, technology development, fabrication and characterization of hybrid ultraviolet Vertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Lasers (UV VCSEL) with organic laser-active material and inorganic distributed Bragg reflectors (DBR). Multilayer structures with different layer thicknesses, refractive indices and absorption coefficients of the inorganic materials were studied using theoretical model calculations. During the simulations the structure parameters such as materials and thicknesses have been varied. This procedure was repeated several times during the design optimization process including also the feedback from technology and characterization. Two types of VCSEL devices were investigated. The first is an index coupled structure consisting of bottom and top DBR dielectric mirrors. In the space in between them is the cavity, which includes active region and defines the spectral gain profile. In this configuration the maximum electrical field is concentrated in the cavity and can destroy the chemical structure of the active material. The second type of laser is a so called complex coupled VCSEL. In this structure the active material is placed not only in the cavity but also in parts of the DBR structure. The simulations show that such a distribution of the active material reduces the required pumping power for reaching lasing threshold. High efficiency is achieved by substituting the dielectric material with high refractive index for the periods closer to the cavity. The inorganic materials for the DBR mirrors have been deposited by Plasma- Enhanced Chemical Vapor Deposition (PECVD) and Dual Ion Beam Sputtering (DIBS) machines. Extended optimizations of the technological processes have been performed. All the processes are carried out in a clean room Class 1 and Class 10000. The optical properties and the thicknesses of the layers are measured in-situ by spectroscopic ellipsometry and spectroscopic reflectometry. The surface roughness is analyzed by atomic force microscopy (AFM) and images of the devices are taken with scanning electron microscope (SEM). The silicon dioxide (SiO2) and silicon nitride (Si3N4) layers deposited by the PECVD machine show defects of the material structure and have higher absorption in the ultra violet range compared to ion beam deposition (IBD). This results in low reflectivity of the DBR mirrors and also reduces the optical properties of the VCSEL devices. However PECVD has the advantage that the stress in the layers can be tuned and compensated, in contrast to IBD at the moment. A sputtering machine Ionsys 1000 produced by Roth&Rau company, is used for the deposition of silicon dioxide (SiO2), silicon nitride (Si3N4), aluminum oxide (Al2O3) and zirconium dioxide (ZrO2). The chamber is equipped with main (sputter) and assisted ion sources. The dielectric materials were optimized by introducing additional oxygen and nitrogen into the chamber. DBR mirrors with different material combinations were deposited. The measured optical properties of the fabricated multilayer structures show an excellent agreement with the results of theoretical model calculations. The layers deposited by puttering show high compressive stress. As an active region a novel organic material with spiro-linked molecules is used. Two different materials have been evaporated by utilizing a dye evaporation machine in the clean room of the department Makromolekulare Chemie und Molekulare Materialien (mmCmm). The Spiro-Octopus-1 organic material has a maximum emission at the wavelength λemission = 395 nm and the Spiro-Pphenal has a maximum emission at the wavelength λemission = 418 nm. Both of them have high refractive index and can be combined with low refractive index materials like silicon dioxide (SiO2). The sputtering method shows excellent optical quality of the deposited materials and high reflection of the multilayer structures. The bottom DBR mirrors for all VCSEL devices were deposited by the DIBS machine, whereas the top DBR mirror deposited either by PECVD or by combination of PECVD and DIBS. The fabricated VCSEL structures were optically pumped by nitrogen laser at wavelength λpumping = 337 nm. The emission was measured by spectrometer. A radiation of the VCSEL structure at wavelength 392 nm and 420 nm is observed.

Convergencia de vías de señalización en un modelo de apoptosis

La sepsis es un evento inflamatorio generalizado del organismo inducido por un daño causado generalmente por un agente infeccioso. El patógeno más frecuentemente asociado con esta entidad es el Staphylococcus aureus, responsable de la inducción de apoptosis en células endoteliales debida a la producción de ceramida. Se ha descrito el efecto protector de la proteína C activada (PCA) en sepsis y su relación con la disminución de la apoptosis de las células endoteliales. En este trabajo se analizó la activación de las quinasas AKT, ASK1, SAPK/JNK y p38 en un modelo de apoptosis endotelial usando las técnicas de Western Blotting y ELISA. Las células endoteliales (EA.hy926), se trataron con C2-ceramida (130μM) en presencia de inhibidores químicos de cada una de estas quinasas y PCA. La supervivencia de las células en presencia de inhibidores químicos y PCA fue evaluada por medio de ensayos de activación de las caspasas 3, 7 y 9, que verificaban la muerte celular por apoptosis. Los resultados evidencian que la ceramida reduce la activación de AKT y aumenta la activación de las quinasas ASK, SAPK/JNK y p38, en tanto que PCA ejerce el efecto contrario. Adicionalmente se encontró que la tiorredoxina incrementa la activación/fosforilación de AKT, mientras que la quinasa p38 induce la defosforilación de AKT.

Frecuencia de neoplasia escamosa de la superficie ocular coexistente con pterigio

Introducción: En la literatura, han aparecido reportes de neoplasia escamosa de superficie ocular (NESO) asociado con pterigio en un mismo paciente. Sin embargo, Colombia no cuenta con una estadística para ninguna de estas patologías. Objetivos: Determinar la frecuencia de NESO en pterigios resecados, en la Fundación Oftalmológica Nacional. Identificar factores de riesgo y características clínicas que predispongan a su aparición. Metodología: Estudio descriptivo de corte transversal. Se realizó una clasificación prequirúrgica y estudio histopatológico de los pterigios resecados en 93 pacientes, para confirmar su coexistencia con NESO. Se efectuó un análisis de frecuencias para datos demográficos y factores de riesgo asociados su aparición. Resultados: La frecuencia de NESO asociado a pterigio fue 7,07%. De estos, 28,5% identificados como sospechosos en la evaluación preoperatoria. La mayoría se presentaron en mujeres (71,4%), las ocupaciones con mayor frecuencia: labores domésticas (42,8%) y el comercio (28.5%). La exposición a derivados del petróleo y tabaquismo fue del 14,28%. No se presentaron casos asociados a infección por VIH. No hubo diferencias estadísticamente significativas sobre la presencia de NESO al comparar los casos en edad (p=0,8), procedencia (p=0,6) tabaquismo (p=0,4), leucoplaquia (p=1,0), queratinización (p=0,137), o vasos amputados (p=0,137). Conclusiones: De los pacientes con diagnóstico histopatológico de NESO, un porcentaje mínimo es sospechado clínicamente. Además se encontró este diagnóstico en pacientes más jóvenes que lo reportado en la literatura. Se recomienda realizar estudios con mayor número de pacientes para una mejor identificación de factores de riesgo. Palabras clave:

Towards closure between measured and modelled UV under clear skies at four diverse sites

The purpose of this work is determine the extent of closure between measurements and models of UV irradiances at diverse sites using state of the art instruments, models, and the best available data as inputs to the models. These include information about aerosol optical depth (unfortunately not extending down as far into the UVB region as desirable because such information is not generally available), ozone column amounts, as well as vertical profiles of temperature. We concentrate on clear-sky irradiances, and report the results in terms of UV Index (UVI)

Solar induced climate effects

Solar electromagnetic radiation powers Earth’s climate system and, consequently, it is often naively assumed that changes in this solar output must be responsible for changes in Earth’s climate. However, the Sun is close to a blackbody radiator and so emits according to its surface temperature and the huge thermal time constant of the outer part of the Sun limits the variability in surface temperature and hence output. As a result, on all timescales of interest, changes in total power output are limited to small changes in effective surface temperature (associated with magnetic fields) and potential, although as yet undetected, solar radius variations. Larger variations are seen in the UV part of the spectrum which is emitted from the lower solar atmosphere (the chromosphere) and which influences Earth’s stratosphere. There is interest in“top-down” mechanisms whereby solar UV irradiance modulates stratospheric temperatures and winds which, in turn, may influence the underlying troposphere where Earth’s climate and weather reside. This contrasts with “bottom-up” effects in which the small total solar irradiance (dominated by the visible and near-IR) variations cause surface temperature changes which drive atmospheric circulations. In addition to these electromagnetic outputs, the Sun modulates energetic particle fluxes incident on the Earth. Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) are emitted by solar flares and from the shock fronts ahead of supersonic (and super-Alfvenic) ejections of material from the solar atmosphere. These SEPs enhance the destruction of polar stratospheric ozone which could be an additional form of top-down climate forcing. Even more energetic are Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs). These particles are not generated by the Sun, rather they originate at the shock fronts emanating from violent galactic events such as supernovae explosions; however, the expansion of the solar magnetic field into interplanetary space means that the Sun modulates the number of GCRs reaching Earth. These play a key role in enabling Earth’s global electric (thunderstorm) circuit and it has been proposed that they also modulate the formation of clouds. Both electromagnetic and corpuscular solar effects are known to vary over the solar magnetic cycle which is typically between 10 and 14 yrs in length (with an average close to 11 yrs). The solar magnetic field polarity at any one phase of one of these activity cycles is opposite to that at the same phase of the next cycle and this influences some phenomena, for example GCRs, which therefore show a 22 yr (“Hale”) cycle on average. Other phenomena, such as irradiance modulation, do not depend on the polarity of the magnetic field and so show only the basic 11-yr activity cycle. However, any effects on climate are much more significant for solar drifts over centennial timescales. This chapter discusses and evaluates potential effects on Earth’s climate system of variations in these solar inputs. Because of the great variety of proposed mechanisms, the wide range of timescales studied (from days to millennia) and the many debates (often triggered by the application of inadequate statistical methods), the literature on this subject is vast, complex, divergent and rapidly changing: consequently the number of references cited in this review is very large (yet still only a small fraction of the total).

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.