Eliciting and estimating valid subjective probabilities: An experimental investigation of the Exchangeability Method.

Using a laboratory experiment, we investigate whether incentive compatibility affects subjective probabilities elicited via the exchangeability method (EM), an elicitation technique consisting of several chained questions. We hypothesize that subjects who are aware of the chaining strategically behave and provide invalid subjective probabilities, while subjects who are not aware of the chaining state their real beliefs and provide valid subjective probabilities. The validity of subjective probabilities is investigated using de Finetti's notion of coherence, under which probability estimates are valid if and only if they obey all axioms of probability theory.
Four experimental treatments are designed and implemented. Subjects are divided into two initial treatment groups: in the first, they are provided with real monetary incentives, and in the second, they are not. Each group is further sub-divided into two treatment groups, in the first, the chained structure of the experimental design is made clear to the subjects, while, in the second, the chained structure is hidden by randomizing the elicitation questions.
Our results suggest that subjects provided with monetary incentives and randomized questions provide valid subjective probabilities because they are not aware of the chaining which undermines the incentive compatibility of the exchangeability method.

Knowledge Management Techniques to Augment Textual CBR (PhD Thesis)

The past decade had witnessed an unprecedented growth in the amount of available digital content, and its volume is expected to continue to grow the next few years. Unstructured text data generated from web and enterprise sources form a large fraction of such content. Many of these contain large volumes of reusable data such as solutions to frequently occurring problems, and general know-how that may be reused in appropriate contexts. In this work, we address issues around leveraging unstructured text data from sources as diverse as the web and the enterprise within the Case-based Reasoning framework. Case-based Reasoning (CBR) provides a framework and methodology for systematic reuse of historical knowledge that is available in the form of problemsolution
pairs, in solving new problems. Here, we consider possibilities of enhancing Textual CBR systems under three main themes: procurement, maintenance and retrieval. We adapt and build upon the stateof-the-art techniques from data mining and natural language processing in addressing various challenges therein. Under procurement, we investigate the problem of extracting cases (i.e., problem-solution pairs) from data sources such as incident/experience
reports. We develop case-base maintenance methods specifically tuned to text targeted towards retaining solutions such that the utility of the filtered case base in solving new problems is maximized. Further, we address the problem of query suggestions for textual case-bases and show that exploiting the problem-solution partition can enhance retrieval effectiveness by prioritizing more useful query suggestions. Additionally, we illustrate interpretable clustering as a tool to drill-down to domain specific text collections (since CBR systems are usually very domain specific) and develop techniques for improved similarity assessment in social media sources such as microblogs. Through extensive empirical evaluations, we illustrate the improvements that we are able to
achieve over the state-of-the-art methods for the respective tasks.

Comprehensive molecular pathology analysis of small bowel adenocarcinoma reveals novel targets with potential for clinical utility

Small bowel accounts for only 0.5% of cancer cases in the US but incidence rates have been rising at 2.4% per year over the past decade. One-third of these are adenocarcinomas but little is known about their molecular pathology and no molecular markers are available for clinical use. Using a retrospective 28 patient matched normal-tumor cohort, next-generation sequencing, gene expression arrays and CpG methylation arrays were used for molecular profiling. Next-generation sequencing identified novel mutations in IDH1, CDH1, KIT, FGFR2, FLT3, NPM1, PTEN, MET, AKT1, RET, NOTCH1 and ERBB4. Array data revealed 17% of CpGs and 5% of RNA transcripts assayed to be differentially methylated and expressed respectively (p < 0.01). Merging gene expression and DNA methylation data revealed CHN2 as consistently hypermethylated and downregulated in this disease (Spearman -0.71, p < 0.001). Mutations in TP53 which were found in more than half of the cohort (15/28) and Kazald1 hypomethylation were both were indicative of poor survival (p = 0.03, HR = 3.2 and p = 0.01, HR = 4.9 respectively). By integrating high-throughput mutational, gene expression and DNA methylation data, this study reveals for the first time the distinct molecular profile of small bowel adenocarcinoma and highlights potential clinically exploitable markers.

Does subjective rating reflect behavioural coding? Personality in 2 month-old dog puppies: An open-field test and adjective-based questionnaire

A number of studies have recently investigated personality traits in non-human species, with the dog gaining popularity as a subject species for research in this area. Recent research has shown the consistency of personality traits across both context and time for adult dogs, both when using questionnaire based methods of investigation and behavioural analyses of the dogs' behaviour. However, only a few studies have assessed the correspondence between these two methods, with results varying considerably across studies. Furthermore, most studies have focused on adult dogs, despite the fact that an understanding of personality traits in young puppies may be important for research focusing on the genetic basis of personality traits. In the current study, we sought to evaluate the correspondence between a questionnaire based method and the in depth analyses of the behaviour of 2-month old puppies in an open-field test in which a number of both social and non-social stimuli were presented to the subjects. We further evaluated consistency of traits over time by re-testing a subset of puppies. The correspondence between methods was high and test-retest consistency (for the main trait) was also good using both evaluation methods. Results showed clear factors referring to the two main personality traits 'extroversion,' (i.e. the enthusiastic, exuberant approach to the stimuli) and 'neuroticism,' (i.e. the more cautious and fearful approach to the stimuli), potentially similar to the shyness-boldness dimension found in previous studies. Furthermore, both methods identified an 'amicability' dimension, expressing the positive interactions the pups directed at the humans stranger, and a 'reservedness' dimension which identified pups who largely chose not to interact with the stimuli, and were defined as quiet and not nosey in the questionnaire.

(Re)examining the relationship between children's subjective wellbeing and their perceptions of participation rights

In recent years wellbeing has been linked increasingly with children’s rights, often characterised as central to their realisation. Indeed it has been suggested that the two concepts are so intertwined that their pairing has become something of a mantra in the literature on childhood. This paper seeks to explore the nature of the relationship between wellbeing and participation rights, using a recently developed ‘rights-based’ measure of children’s participation in school and community, the Children’s Participation Rights Questionnaire (CPRQ), and an established measure of subjective wellbeing – KIDSCREEN-10. The data for the study came from the Kids’ Life and Times (KLT) which is an annual online survey of Primary 7 children carried out in Northern Ireland. In 2013 approximately 3,800 children (51% girls; 49% boys) from 212 schools participated in KLT. The findings showed a statistically significant positive correlation between children’s overall scores on the KIDSCREEN-10 subjective wellbeing measure and their perceptions that their participation rights are respected in school and community settings. Further, the results indicated that it is the social relations/autonomy questions on KIDSCREEN-10 which are most strongly related to children’s perceptions that their participation rights are respected. Exploration of the findings by gender showed that there were no significant differences in overall wellbeing; however girls had higher scores than boys on the social relations/autonomy domain of KIDSCREEN-10. Girls were also more positive than boys about their participation in school and community. In light of the findings from this study, it is suggested that what lies at the heart of the relationship between child wellbeing and children’s participation rights is the social/relational aspects of both participation and wellbeing.

Evidence for the reliability and validity, but not the practical utility of the two-factor Consideration of Future Consequences Scale-14

Researchers have proposed 1-factor, 2-factor, and bifactor solutions to the 12-item Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFCS-12). In order to overcome some measurement problems and to create a robust and conceptually useful two-factor scale the CFCS-12 was recently modified to include two new items and to become the CFCS-14. Using a University sample, we tested four competing models for the CFCS-14: (a) a 12-item unidimensional model, (b) a model fitted for two uncorrelated factors (CFC-Immediate and CFC-Future), (c) a model fitted for two correlated factors (CFC-I and CFC-F), and (d) a bifactor model. Results suggested that the addition of the two new items has strengthened the viability of a two factor solution of the CFCS-14. Results of linear regression models suggest that the CFC-F factor is redundant. Further studies using alcohol and mental health indicators are required to test this redundancy.

Utility of US Norms for the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (III) in UK and Irish Children

The aim of this paper is to explore the utility of the United States norms for United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland populations. The Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID III) is a globally used developmental assessment for typically developing and clinical samples of children aged 1 to 42 months. A UK norming exercise (REF) confirmed the suitability of US norms for UK based research and practice. However, debate has continued concerning the utility of the US norms in other countries. This paper further explores the utility of the US norms for the UK and ROI populations using BSID III developmental outcome data from two samples of over one thousand typically developing children.

Ex vivo experimental model for percutaneous vertebroplasty: microCT utility

The aim of this study was to develop an ex vivo experimental animal model for percutaneous vertebroplasty, for further application in vivo to test novel bone injectable cements.

Beyond the artefact and techno-centricity: towards process-centric understanding of architecture - alternative facilitation strategies and proposals

The artefact and techno-centricity of the research into the architecture process needs to be counterbalanced by other approaches. An increasing amount of information is collected and used in the process, resulting in challenges related to information and knowledge management, as this research evidences through interviews with practicing architects. However, emerging technologies are expected to resolve many of the traditional challenges, opening up new avenues for research. This research suggests that among them novel techniques addressing how architects interact with project information, especially that indirectly related to the artefacts, and tools which better address the social nature of work, notably communication between participants, become a higher priority. In the fields associated with the Human Computer Interaction generic solutions still frequently prevail, whereas it appears that specific alternative approaches would be particularly in demand for the dynamic and context dependent design process. This research identifies an opportunity for a process-centric and integrative approach for architectural practice and proposes an information management and communication software application, developed for the needs discovered in close collaboration with architects. Departing from the architects’ challenges, an information management software application, Mneme, was designed and developed until a working prototype. It proposes the use of visualizations as an interface to provide an overview of the process, facilitate project information retrieval and access, and visualize relationships between the pieces of information. Challenges with communication about visual content, such as images and 3D files, led to a development of a communication feature allowing discussions attached to any file format and searchable from a database. Based on the architects testing the prototype and literature recognizing the subjective side of usability, this thesis argues that visualizations, even 3D visualizations, present potential as an interface for information management in the architecture process. The architects confirmed that Mneme allowed them to have a better project overview, to easier locate heterogeneous content, and provided context for the project information. Communication feature in Mneme was seen to offer a lot of potential in design projects where diverse file formats are typically used. Through empirical understanding of the challenges in the architecture process, and through testing the resulting software proposal, this thesis suggests promising directions for future research into the architecture and design process.

Acute electronic cigarette use: nicotine delivery and subjective effects in regular users

Rationale Electronic cigarettes are becoming increasingly popular among smokers worldwide. Commonly reported reasons for use include the following: to quit smoking, to avoid relapse, to reduce urge to smoke, or as a perceived lower-risk alternative to smoking. Few studies, however, have explored whether electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) deliver measurable levels of nicotine to the blood. Objective This study aims to explore in experienced users the effect of using an 18-mg/ml nicotine first-generation e-cigarette on blood nicotine, tobacco withdrawal symptoms, and urge to smoke. Methods Fourteen regular e-cigarette users (three females), who are abstinent from smoking and e-cigarette use for 12 h, each completed a 2.5 h testing session. Blood was sampled, and questionnaires were completed (tobacco-related withdrawal symptoms, urge to smoke, positive and negative subjective effects) at four stages: baseline, 10 puffs, 60 min of ad lib use and a 60-min rest period. Results Complete sets of blood were obtained from seven participants. Plasma nicotine concentration rose significantly from a mean of 0.74 ng/ml at baseline to 6.77 ng/ml 10 min after 10 puffs, reaching a mean maximum of 13.91 ng/ml by the end of the ad lib puffing period. Tobacco-related withdrawal symptoms and urge to smoke were significantly reduced; direct positive effects were strongly endorsed, and there was very low reporting of adverse effects. Conclusions These findings demonstrate reliable blood nicotine delivery after the acute use of this brand/model of e-cigarette in a sample of regular users. Future studies might usefully quantify nicotine delivery in relation to inhalation technique and the relationship with successful smoking cessation/harm reduction.