ONeSAMP: a program to estimate effective population size using approximate Bayesian computation

The estimation of effective population size from one sample of genotypes has been problematic because most estimators have been proven imprecise or biased. We developed a web-based program, ONeSAMP that uses approximate Bayesian computation to estimate effective population size from a sample of microsatellite genotypes. ONeSAMP requires an input file of sampled individuals' microsatellite genotypes along with information about several sampling and biological parameters. ONeSAMP provides an estimate of effective population size, along with 95% credible limits. We illustrate the use of ONeSAMP with an example data set from a re-introduced population of ibex Capra ibex.

ExtSym: a program to aid space-group determination from powder diffraction data

Once unit-cell dimensions have been determined from a powder diffraction data set and therefore the crystal system is known (e.g. orthorhombic), the method presented by Markvardsen, David, Johnson & Shankland [Acta Cryst. (2001), A57, 47-54] can be used to generate a table ranking the extinction symbols of the given crystal system according to probability. Markvardsen et al. tested a computer program (ExtSym) implementing the method against Pawley refinement outputs generated using the TF12LS program [David, Ibberson & Matthewman (1992). Report RAL-92-032. Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, Oxon, UK]. Here, it is shown that ExtSym can be used successfully with many well known powder diffraction analysis packages, namely DASH [David, Shankland, van de Streek, Pidcock, Motherwell & Cole (2006). J. Appl. Cryst. 39, 910-915], FullProf [Rodriguez-Carvajal (1993). Physica B, 192, 55-69], GSAS [Larson & Von Dreele (1994). Report LAUR 86-748. Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, USA], PRODD [Wright (2004). Z. Kristallogr. 219, 1-11] and TOPAS [Coelho (2003). Bruker AXS GmbH, Karlsruhe, Germany]. In addition, a precise description of the optimal input for ExtSym is given to enable other software packages to interface with ExtSym and to allow the improvement/modification of existing interfacing scripts. ExtSym takes as input the powder data in the form of integrated intensities and error estimates for these intensities. The output returned by ExtSym is demonstrated to be strongly dependent on the accuracy of these error estimates and the reason for this is explained. ExtSym is tested against a wide range of data sets, confirming the algorithm to be very successful at ranking the published extinction symbol as the most likely. (C) 2008 International Union of Crystallography Printed in Singapore - all rights reserved.

The general observation period 2007 within the priority program on quantitative precipitation forecasting: concept and first results

In the year 2007 a General Observation Period (GOP) has been performed within the German Priority Program on Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (PQP). By optimizing the use of existing instrumentation a large data set of in-situ and remote sensing instruments with special focus on water cycle variables was gathered over the full year cycle. The area of interest covered central Europe with increasing focus towards the Black Forest where the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) took place from June to August 2007. Thus the GOP includes a variety of precipitation systems in order to relate the COPS results to a larger spatial scale. For a timely use of the data, forecasts of the numerical weather prediction models COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE of the German Meteorological Service were tailored to match the observations and perform model evaluation in a near real-time environment. The ultimate goal is to identify and distinguish between different kinds of model deficits and to improve process understanding.

Cloud droplet size and liquid water path retrievals from zenith radiance measurements: examples from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program and the Aerosol Robotic Network

The ground-based Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) and NASA Aerosol Robotic Net- work (AERONET) routinely monitor clouds using zenith ra- diances at visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Using the transmittance calculated from such measurements, we have developed a new retrieval method for cloud effective droplet size and conducted extensive tests for non-precipitating liquid water clouds. The underlying principle is to combine a liquid-water-absorbing wavelength (i.e., 1640 nm) with a non-water-absorbing wavelength for acquiring information on cloud droplet size and optical depth. For simulated stratocumulus clouds with liquid water path less than 300 g m−2 and horizontal resolution of 201 m, the retrieval method underestimates the mean effective radius by 0.8μm, with a root-mean-squared error of 1.7 μm and a relative deviation of 13%. For actual observations with a liquid water path less than 450 g m−2 at the ARM Oklahoma site during 2007– 2008, our 1.5-min-averaged retrievals are generally larger by around 1 μm than those from combined ground-based cloud radar and microwave radiometer at a 5-min temporal resolution. We also compared our retrievals to those from combined shortwave flux and microwave observations for relatively homogeneous clouds, showing that the bias between these two retrieval sets is negligible, but the error of 2.6 μm and the relative deviation of 22 % are larger than those found in our simulation case. Finally, the transmittance-based cloud effective droplet radii agree to better than 11 % with satellite observations and have a negative bias of 1 μm. Overall, the retrieval method provides reasonable cloud effective radius estimates, which can enhance the cloud products of both ARM and AERONET.

Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959-2008

Temperature is a key variable for monitoring global climate change. Here we perform a trend analysis of Swiss temperatures from 1959 to 2008, using a new 2 × 2 km gridded data-set based on carefully homogenised ground observations from MeteoSwiss. The aim of this study is twofold: first, to discuss the spatial and altitudinal temperature trend characteristics in detail, and second, to quantify the contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation and local effects to these trends. The seasonal trends are all positive and mostly significant with an annual average warming rate of 0.35 °C/decade (∼1.6 times the northern hemispheric warming rate), ranging from 0.17 in autumn to 0.48 °C/decade in summer. Altitude-dependent trends are found in autumn and early winter where the trends are stronger at low altitudes (<800 m asl), and in spring where slightly stronger trends are found at altitudes close to the snow line. Part of the trends can be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation, but with substantial differences from season to season. In winter, circulation effects account for more than half the trends, while this contribution is much smaller in other seasons. After removing the effect of circulation, the trends still show seasonal variations with higher values in spring and summer. The circulation-corrected trends are closer to the values simulated by a set of ENSEMBLES regional climate models, with the models still tending towards a trend underestimation in spring and summer. Our results suggest that both circulation changes and more local effects are important to explain part of recent warming in spring, summer, and autumn. Snow-albedo feedback effects could be responsible for the stronger spring trends at altitudes close to the snow line, but the overall effect is small. In autumn, the observed decrease in fog frequency might be a key process in explaining the stronger temperature trends at low altitudes.

Nutritional information of meals supplied by companies, participating in the workers` meal program in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objective. To compare the nutritional value of meals provided by companies participating in the Workers` Meal Program in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, to the nutritional recommendations and guidelines established by the Ministry of Health for the Brazilian population. Methods. The 72 companies studied were grouped according to economic sector (industrial, services, or commerce), size (micro, small, medium, or large), meal preparation modality (prepared on-site by the company itself, on-site by a hired caterer, or off-site by a hired caterer), and supervision by a dietitian (yes or no). The per capita amount of food was determined based on the lunch, dinner, and supper menus for three days. The nutritional value of the meals was defined by the amount of calories, carbohydrates, protein, total fat, polyunsaturated fat, saturated fat, trans fat, sugars, cholesterol, and fruits and vegetables. Results. Most of the menus were deficient in the number of fruits and vegetables (63.9%) and amount of polyunsaturated fat (83.3%), but high in total fat (47.2%) and cholesterol (62.5%). Group 2, composed of mostly medium and large companies, supervised by a dietician, belonging to the industrial and/or service sectors, and using a hired caterer, on averaged served meals with higher calorie content (P < 0.001), higher percentage of polyunsaturated fat (P < 0.001), more cholesterol (P = 0.015), and more fruits and vegetables (P < 0.001) than Group 1, which was composed of micro and small companies from the commercial sector, that prepare the meals themselves on-site, and are not supervised by a dietitian. Regarding the nutrition guidelines set for the Brazilian population, Group 2 meals were better in terms of fruit and vegetable servings (P < 0.001). Group I meals were better in terms of cholesterol content (P = 0.05). Conclusions. More specific action is required targeting company officers and managers in charge of food and nutrition services, especially in companies without dietitian supervision.

Hopf Bifurcations in a Watt Governor with a Spring

This paper pursues the study carried out in [ 10], focusing on the codimension one Hopf bifurcations in the hexagonal Watt governor system. Here are studied Hopf bifurcations of codimensions two, three and four and the pertinent Lyapunov stability coefficients and bifurcation diagrams. This allows to determine the number, types and positions of bifurcating small amplitude periodic orbits. As a consequence it is found an open region in the parameter space where two attracting periodic orbits coexist with an attracting equilibrium point.

GIH:s rullskidprojekt : Lärarstudenter GIH 2008 delrapport 2: 2009

Gymnastik – och idrottshögskolan, GIH, har en lång tradition av utbildning inom skidåkning. Redan 1924 genomfördes den första fjällfärden för civila studenter i Jämtland och sedan 1926 har obligatorisk utbildning i turteknik, förlagd till fjällterräng, genomförts (Schantz & Halldén, 1988). Utförsåkning och längdåkning har också länge funnits med som inslag i vinterutbildningen. För närvarande har samtliga program vid GIH (lärarprogrammet, tränarprogrammet och hälsopedagogprogrammet) en obligatorisk vinterutbildning i fjällmiljö, omfattande omkring tre högskolepoäng (cirka två veckors heltidsstudier). Under senare år har en ökande andel av de antagna studenterna uppvisat brister vad gäller grundläggande skidfärdighet, vilket försvårat möjligheterna till breddning och fördjupning, såväl teoretiskt som praktiskt, under vinterutbildningen. De stora skillnaderna i färdighet hos studenterna innebär, förutom svårigheterna att tekniskt och didaktiskt arbeta med olika aspekter av skidåkning med heterogena grupper under en så begränsad tid, även att säkerheten under turåkningsmomentet får större fokus än vad som tidigare varit fallet. Den bristande skidåkningsfärdigheten hos vissa studenter kan bland annat få till följd att de får svårt att genomföra turåkningen. Den vanligtvis otillräckliga snötillgången i Mellansverige gör att träning på "hemmaplan" blir svår att genomföra. I syfte att söka komma till rätta med denna problematik genomfördes ett delprojekt inom ramen för det så kallade "GIH 2008-projektet". Studenter som själva ansåg sig ha en bristande skidteknik, eller betraktade sig som nybörjare i skidåkning, erbjöds delta i projektet. Utöver möjligheten att stödja studenter som saknade eller hade liten tidigare erfarenhet av skidåkning, fanns här möjlighet att prova olika metodiker för didaktiska studier. Denna åtgärd från GIH:s sida att bistå studenter som av geografiska, klimatologiska eller av andra orsaker inte haft möjlighet att tidigare skaffa sig skiderfarenhet kommer sannolikt att bli än mer betydelsefull i framtiden. Nedan presenteras data för stakmomentet och diagonalåkningen i projektet. Ett antal utrustningar, bestående av skidskor, stavar och rullskidor införskaffades och studenterna fick en möjlighet att under några veckor träna rullskidåkning Såväl kvalitativa som kvantitativa metoder användes för utvärdering av träningsprocesser. Denna utvärdering baserades på videofilmning och datorbaserad videoanalys.