The Limits of Rational Choice: New Institutionalism in the Test Bed of Central Banking Politics in Australia

This paper tests the explanatory capacities of different versions of new institutionalism by examining the Australian case of a general transition in central banking practice and monetary politics: namely, the increased emphasis on low inflation and central bank independence. Standard versions of rational choice institutionalism largely dominate the literature on the politics of central banking, but this approach (here termed RC1) fails to account for Australian empirics. RC1 has a tendency to establish actor preferences exogenously to the analysis; actors' motives are also assumed a priori; actor's preferences are depicted in relatively static, ahistorical terms. And there is the tendency, even a methodological requirement, to assume relatively simple motives and preference sets among actors, in part because of the game theoretic nature of RC1 reasoning. It is possible to build a more accurate rational choice model by re-specifying and essentially updating the context, incentives and choice sets that have driven rational choice in this case. Enter RC2. However, this move subtly introduces methodological shifts and new theoretical challenges. By contrast, historical institutionalism uses an inductive methodology. Compared with deduction, it is arguably better able to deal with complexity and nuance. It also utilises a dynamic, historical approach, and specifies (dynamically) endogenous preference formation by interpretive actors. Historical institutionalism is also able to more easily incorporate a wider set of key explanatory variables and incorporate wider social aggregates. Hence, it is argued that historical institutionalism is the preferred explanatory theory and methodology in this case.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

Intracellular sorting and transport of proteins

The secretory and endocytic pathways of eukaryotic organelles consist of multiple compartments, each with a unique set of proteins and lipids. Specific transport mechanisms are required to direct molecules to defined locations and to ensure that the identity, and hence function, of individual compartments are maintained. The localisation of proteins to specific membranes is complex and involves multiple interactions. The recent dramatic advances in understanding the molecular mechanisms of membrane transport has been due to the application of a multi-disciplinary approach, intergrating membrane biology, genetics, imaging, protein and lipid biochemistry and structural biology. The aim of this review is to summarise the general principles of protein sorting in the secretory and endocytic pathways and to highlight the dynamic nature of these processes. The molecular mechanisms involved in this transport along the secretory and endocytic pathways are discussed along with the signals responsible for targeting proteins to different intracellular locations. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conception of a flexible integrator and lean model for integrated management systems

Management systems standards (MSSs) have developed in an unprecedented manner in the last few years. These MSS cover a wide array of different disciplines, aims and activities of organisations. Also, organisations are populated with an enormous diversity of independent management systems (MSs). An integrated management system (IMS) tends to integrate some or all components of the business. Maximising their integration in one coherent and efficient MS is increasingly a strategic priority and constitutes an opportunity for businesses to be more competitive and consequently, promote its sustainable success. Those organisations that are quicker and more efficient in their integration and continuous improvement will have a competitive advantage in obtaining sustainable value in our global and competitive business world. Several scholars have proposed various theoretical approaches regarding the integration of management sub-systems, leading to the conclusion that there is no common practice for all organisations as they encompass different characteristics. One other author shows that several tangible and intangible gains for organisations, as well as to their internal and external stakeholders, are achieved with the integration of the individual standardised MSs. The purpose of this work was to conceive a model, Flexible, Integrator and Lean for IMSs, according to ISO 9001 for quality; ISO 14001 for environment and OHSAS 18001 for occupational health and safety (IMS–QES), that can be adapted and progressively assimilate other MSs, such as, SA 8000/ISO 26000 for social accountability, ISO 31000 for risk management and ISO/IEC 27001 for information security management, among others. The IMS–QES model was designed in the real environment of an industrial Portuguese small and medium enterprise, that over the years has been adopting, gradually, in whole or in part, individual MSSs. The developed model is based on a preliminary investigation conducted through a questionnaire. The strategy and research methods have taken into consideration the case study. Among the main findings of the survey we highlight: the creation of added value for the business through the elimination of several organisational wastes; the integrated management of the sustainability components; the elimination of conflicts between independent MS; dialogue with the main stakeholders and commitment to their ongoing satisfaction and increased contribution to the company’s competitiveness; and greater valorisation and motivation of employees as a result of the expansion of their skill base, actions and responsibilities, with their consequent empowerment. A set of key performance indicators (KPIs) constitute the support, in a perspective of business excellence, to the follow up of the organisation’s progress towards the vision and achievement of the defined objectives in the context of each component of the IMS model. The conceived model had many phases and the one presented in this work is the last required for the integration of quality, environment, safety and others individual standardised MSs. Globally, the investigation results, by themselves, justified and prioritised the conception of an IMS–QES model, to be implemented at the company where the investigation was conducted, but also a generic model of an IMS, which may be more flexible, integrator and lean as possible, potentiating the efficiency, added value both in the present and, fundamentally, for future.

The road to rulership : Henry Tudor, King of England

At the close of the Wars of the Roses, a new dynasty was founded by a man lacking a prince’s education; moreover, his weak claim to the throne of England gave rise to a set of serious problems. These two crucial, interrelated elements are central in Francis Bacon’s biographical account of Henry VII. The literal road leading Richmond from exile to victory in Bosworth Field, in 1485, is eventually transformed into a metaphoric path that prefigures the long, deep process of learning undertaken during his 24-year reign. This fundamental process carried out by the king will be approached mainly through the passages focused on the Lambert Simnell/Perkin Warbeck affairs, the most difficult probelms the monarch had to face in a time and in a kingdom of many uncertainties. The Simnell/Warbeck menaces embodied Henry Tudor’s greatest dilemmas, continually emphasised in Bacon’s work – the essence of legitimacy and the essence of royalty.

Large area image sensing structures based on a-SiC : H: a dynamic characterization

In recent works large area hydrogenated amorphous silicon p-i-n structures with low conductivity doped layers were proposed as single element image sensors. The working principle of this type of sensor is based on the modulation, by the local illumination conditions, of the photocurrent generated by a light beam scanning the active area of the device. In order to evaluate the sensor capabilities is necessary to perform a response time characterization. This work focuses on the transient response of such sensor and on the influence of the carbon contents of the doped layers. In order to evaluate the response time a set of devices with different percentage of carbon incorporation in the doped layers is analyzed by measuring the scanner-induced photocurrent under different bias conditions.

Intelligent decision making in electricity markets: simulated annealing Q-Learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS, a system that provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims at enhancing ALBidS competence in endowing market players with adequate strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible actions. These actions are defined accordingly to the most probable points of bidding success. With the purpose of accelerating the convergence process, a simulated annealing based algorithm is included.

GuideMe: service for consulting, publication and recommendation of touristic locations

Trabalho de Projeto realizado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática e de Computadores

Edifícios altos – problemas associados e análise estrutural de um caso prático

Com a presente dissertação pretende-se analisar alguns dos problemas associados aos edifícios altos, na fase de projeto, bem como compilar um conjunto de informações e conhecimentos científicos sobre a área abordada. São descritas algumas soluções de sistemas estruturais possíveis de idealizar para edifícios altos. Posteriormente, tendo por base um projeto de estruturas de um edifício com 25 pisos localizado em Luanda, capital de Angola, o objetivo consistiu em analisar estática e dinamicamente o seu comportamento quando solicitado fundamentalmente pelas ações do vento e dos sismos. A análise estrutural foi realizada com recurso a dois softwares de cálculo automático, nomeadamente, o Cypecad e o Robot Structural Analysis Professional e pelos métodos preconizados no Regulamento de Segurança e Ações para estruturas de edifícios e pontes e o Eurocódigo 8 – “Projeto de estruturas para resistência aos sismos”. Aborda-se a temática do faseamento construtivo, assunto que revela algumas limitações dos programas de cálculo utilizados, sendo descrito um método simplificado para prever os seus efeitos em termos de dimensionamento final. Os resultados obtidos permitiram avaliar o bom comportamento da estrutura no que respeita ao cumprimento dos estados limites últimos e de serviço. Conclui-se que o sistema estrutural adotado no modelo em estudo se encontra bem dimensionado relativamente ao colapso e à limitação de danos.

Analysis of tongue shape and motion in speech production using statistical modeling

The mechanisms of speech production are complex and have been raising attention from researchers of both medical and computer vision fields. In the speech production mechanism, the articulator’s study is a complex issue, since they have a high level of freedom along this process, namely the tongue, which instigates a problem in its control and observation. In this work it is automatically characterized the tongues shape during the articulation of the oral vowels of Portuguese European by using statistical modeling on MR-images. A point distribution model is built from a set of images collected during artificially sustained articulations of Portuguese European sounds, which can extract the main characteristics of the motion of the tongue. The model built in this work allows under standing more clearly the dynamic speech events involved during sustained articulations. The tongue shape model built can also be useful for speech rehabilitation purposes, specifically to recognize the compensatory movements of the articulators during speech production.

Automatic learning for the classification of chemical reactions and in statistical thermodynamics

This Thesis describes the application of automatic learning methods for a) the classification of organic and metabolic reactions, and b) the mapping of Potential Energy Surfaces(PES). The classification of reactions was approached with two distinct methodologies: a representation of chemical reactions based on NMR data, and a representation of chemical reactions from the reaction equation based on the physico-chemical and topological features of chemical bonds. NMR-based classification of photochemical and enzymatic reactions. Photochemical and metabolic reactions were classified by Kohonen Self-Organizing Maps (Kohonen SOMs) and Random Forests (RFs) taking as input the difference between the 1H NMR spectra of the products and the reactants. The development of such a representation can be applied in automatic analysis of changes in the 1H NMR spectrum of a mixture and their interpretation in terms of the chemical reactions taking place. Examples of possible applications are the monitoring of reaction processes, evaluation of the stability of chemicals, or even the interpretation of metabonomic data. A Kohonen SOM trained with a data set of metabolic reactions catalysed by transferases was able to correctly classify 75% of an independent test set in terms of the EC number subclass. Random Forests improved the correct predictions to 79%. With photochemical reactions classified into 7 groups, an independent test set was classified with 86-93% accuracy. The data set of photochemical reactions was also used to simulate mixtures with two reactions occurring simultaneously. Kohonen SOMs and Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FFNNs) were trained to classify the reactions occurring in a mixture based on the 1H NMR spectra of the products and reactants. Kohonen SOMs allowed the correct assignment of 53-63% of the mixtures (in a test set). Counter-Propagation Neural Networks (CPNNs) gave origin to similar results. The use of supervised learning techniques allowed an improvement in the results. They were improved to 77% of correct assignments when an ensemble of ten FFNNs were used and to 80% when Random Forests were used. This study was performed with NMR data simulated from the molecular structure by the SPINUS program. In the design of one test set, simulated data was combined with experimental data. The results support the proposal of linking databases of chemical reactions to experimental or simulated NMR data for automatic classification of reactions and mixtures of reactions. Genome-scale classification of enzymatic reactions from their reaction equation. The MOLMAP descriptor relies on a Kohonen SOM that defines types of bonds on the basis of their physico-chemical and topological properties. The MOLMAP descriptor of a molecule represents the types of bonds available in that molecule. The MOLMAP descriptor of a reaction is defined as the difference between the MOLMAPs of the products and the reactants, and numerically encodes the pattern of bonds that are broken, changed, and made during a chemical reaction. The automatic perception of chemical similarities between metabolic reactions is required for a variety of applications ranging from the computer validation of classification systems, genome-scale reconstruction (or comparison) of metabolic pathways, to the classification of enzymatic mechanisms. Catalytic functions of proteins are generally described by the EC numbers that are simultaneously employed as identifiers of reactions, enzymes, and enzyme genes, thus linking metabolic and genomic information. Different methods should be available to automatically compare metabolic reactions and for the automatic assignment of EC numbers to reactions still not officially classified. In this study, the genome-scale data set of enzymatic reactions available in the KEGG database was encoded by the MOLMAP descriptors, and was submitted to Kohonen SOMs to compare the resulting map with the official EC number classification, to explore the possibility of predicting EC numbers from the reaction equation, and to assess the internal consistency of the EC classification at the class level. A general agreement with the EC classification was observed, i.e. a relationship between the similarity of MOLMAPs and the similarity of EC numbers. At the same time, MOLMAPs were able to discriminate between EC sub-subclasses. EC numbers could be assigned at the class, subclass, and sub-subclass levels with accuracies up to 92%, 80%, and 70% for independent test sets. The correspondence between chemical similarity of metabolic reactions and their MOLMAP descriptors was applied to the identification of a number of reactions mapped into the same neuron but belonging to different EC classes, which demonstrated the ability of the MOLMAP/SOM approach to verify the internal consistency of classifications in databases of metabolic reactions. RFs were also used to assign the four levels of the EC hierarchy from the reaction equation. EC numbers were correctly assigned in 95%, 90%, 85% and 86% of the cases (for independent test sets) at the class, subclass, sub-subclass and full EC number level,respectively. Experiments for the classification of reactions from the main reactants and products were performed with RFs - EC numbers were assigned at the class, subclass and sub-subclass level with accuracies of 78%, 74% and 63%, respectively. In the course of the experiments with metabolic reactions we suggested that the MOLMAP / SOM concept could be extended to the representation of other levels of metabolic information such as metabolic pathways. Following the MOLMAP idea, the pattern of neurons activated by the reactions of a metabolic pathway is a representation of the reactions involved in that pathway - a descriptor of the metabolic pathway. This reasoning enabled the comparison of different pathways, the automatic classification of pathways, and a classification of organisms based on their biochemical machinery. The three levels of classification (from bonds to metabolic pathways) allowed to map and perceive chemical similarities between metabolic pathways even for pathways of different types of metabolism and pathways that do not share similarities in terms of EC numbers. Mapping of PES by neural networks (NNs). In a first series of experiments, ensembles of Feed-Forward NNs (EnsFFNNs) and Associative Neural Networks (ASNNs) were trained to reproduce PES represented by the Lennard-Jones (LJ) analytical potential function. The accuracy of the method was assessed by comparing the results of molecular dynamics simulations (thermal, structural, and dynamic properties) obtained from the NNs-PES and from the LJ function. The results indicated that for LJ-type potentials, NNs can be trained to generate accurate PES to be used in molecular simulations. EnsFFNNs and ASNNs gave better results than single FFNNs. A remarkable ability of the NNs models to interpolate between distant curves and accurately reproduce potentials to be used in molecular simulations is shown. The purpose of the first study was to systematically analyse the accuracy of different NNs. Our main motivation, however, is reflected in the next study: the mapping of multidimensional PES by NNs to simulate, by Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo, the adsorption and self-assembly of solvated organic molecules on noble-metal electrodes. Indeed, for such complex and heterogeneous systems the development of suitable analytical functions that fit quantum mechanical interaction energies is a non-trivial or even impossible task. The data consisted of energy values, from Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations, at different distances, for several molecular orientations and three electrode adsorption sites. The results indicate that NNs require a data set large enough to cover well the diversity of possible interaction sites, distances, and orientations. NNs trained with such data sets can perform equally well or even better than analytical functions. Therefore, they can be used in molecular simulations, particularly for the ethanol/Au (111) interface which is the case studied in the present Thesis. Once properly trained, the networks are able to produce, as output, any required number of energy points for accurate interpolations.

Optimization of structures modeled with a Meshfree approach

Radial basis functions are being used in different scientific areas in order to reproduce the geometrical modeling of an object/structure, as well as to predict its behavior. Due to its characteristics, these functions are well suited for meshfree modeling of physical quantities, which for instances can be associated to the data sets of 3D laser scanning point clouds. In the present work the geometry of a structure is modeled by using multiquadric radial basis functions, and its configuration is further optimized in order to obtain better performances concerning to its static and dynamic behavior. For this purpose the authors consider the particle swarm optimization technique. A set of case studies is presented to illustrate the adequacy of the meshfree model used, as well as its link to particle swarm optimization technique. © 2014 IEEE.

Patterns of Associational Life in Western Europe, 1800-2000

Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Science of the European University Institute

Simulation and dynamics of freeway traffic

This paper presents the new package entitled Simulator of Intelligent Transportation Systems (SITS) and a computational oriented analysis of traffic dynamics. The SITS adopts a microscopic simulation approach to reproduce real traffic conditions considering different types of vehicles, drivers and roads. A set of experiments with the SITS reveal the dynamic phenomena exhibited by this kind of system. For this purpose a modelling formalism is developed that embeds the statistics and the Laplace transform. The results make possible the adoption of classical system theory tools and point out that it is possible to study traffic systems taking advantage of the knowledge gathered with automatic control algorithms. A complementary perspective for the analysis of the traffic flow is also quantified through the entropy measure.

Design of New Materials for Passive Vibration Control

The objective of this contribution is to extend the models of cellular/composite material design to nonlinear material behaviour and apply them for design of materials for passive vibration control. As a first step a computational tool allowing determination of optimised one-dimensional isolator behaviour was developed. This model can serve as a representation for idealised macroscopic behaviour. Optimal isolator behaviour to a given set of loads is obtained by generic probabilistic metaalgorithm, simulated annealing. Cost functional involves minimization of maximum response amplitude in a set of predefined time intervals and maximization of total energy absorbed in the first loop. Dependence of the global optimum on several combinations of leading parameters of the simulated annealing procedure, like neighbourhood definition and annealing schedule, is also studied and analyzed. Obtained results facilitate the design of elastomeric cellular materials with improved behaviour in terms of dynamic stiffness for passive vibration control.