Statistical Characteristics of Flash Flood in Georgia

Results are presented from the analysis of observations data on flash flood in Georgia over a period of 45 years, from 1961 to 2005, provided of the of Hydro-meteorology Service of Georgia.

Nutrient enrichment effect on macroinvertebrates in a lowland stream of Argentina

ABSTRACT One of the most important effects derived from the intensive land use is the increase of nutrient concentration in the aquatic systems due to superficial drainage. Besides, the increment of precipitations in South America connected to the global climate change could intensify these anthropic impacts due to the changes in the runoff pattern and a greater discharge of water in the streams and rivers. The pampean streams are singular environments with high natural nutrient concentrations which could be increased even more if the predictions of global climate change for the area are met. In this context, the effect of experimental nutrient addition on macroinvertebrates in a lowland stream is studied. Samplings were carried out from March 2007 to February 2009 in two reaches (fertilized and unfertilized), upstream and downstream from the input of nutrients. The addition of nutrients caused an increase in the phosphorus concentration in the fertilized reach which was not observed for nitrogen concentration. From all macroinvertebrates studied only two taxa had significant differences in their abundance after fertilization: Corbicula fluminea and Ostracoda. Our results reveal that the disturbance caused by the increase of nutrients on the benthic community depends on basal nutrients concentration. The weak response of macroinvertebrates to fertilization in the pampean streams could be due to their tolerance to high concentrations of nutrients in relation to their evolutionary history in streams naturally enriched with nutrients. Further research concerning the thresholds of nutrients affecting macroinvertebrates and about the adaptive advantages of taxa in naturally eutrophic environments is still needed. This information will allow for a better understanding of the processes of nutrient cycling and for the construction of restoration measures in natural eutrophic ecosystems.

Serological studies on an outbreak of smallpox in the State of Bahia - Brazil in 1969

Four weeks after Containment Vaccination undertaken against the largest outbreak of smallpox occured in Brazil in 1969, that of the municipality of Utinga, Bahia, 99 samples of serum were collected from the local population. These samples were classified in four groups: a) - Individuals with a history of variola prior to the beginning of present outbreak in town (15 sera); "Previous smallpox group"; b) - Individuals with primary vaccination, with no record variola, at the time of containment measures (15 sera). "Primary vaccinated group"; c) - Individuals with no previous record of variola revaccinated with "take" at the time of containment (15 sera0, "Revaccinated group"; d) - Individuals who contracted variola in present outbreak (54 sera) these were subdivided in four sub-groups, according to dates on which cases ocurred, "Variola in outbreak group". Serological study of samples was done by tests of hemagglutination inhibition, neutralization, and complement fixation. It was observed that HI titers were significantly lower in cases of previous smallpox than in other groups. Although they were slightly higher on revaccinated individuals than on primary vaccinated group and than in the group of variola in outbreak, this difference was not significant. Those same antibodies were present in all cases of variola in outbreak, and it was found that titers decreased in direct proportion to time elapsed from occurrence of cases. Neutralizing antibodies proved to be significantly higher on the revaccinated group than on variola in outbreak group, and higher on these than on primary vaccinated and on the previous smallpox groups. In cases from the variola in outbreak it was verified that neutralizing antibodies remained stable, although with great variation in titers. Tests of complement fixation could not be undertaken on all samples, because many of them proved to have anticomplementarity. However, it was found that complement fixing antibodies diminished rapidly, becoming negative for earlier infections. Finally, the authors suggest that there would be some evidence that HI titers are lower in variola minor under Brazilian conditions than in variola major.

Well-posedness and invariant measures for HJM models with deterministic volatility and Lévy noise

We give sufficient conditions for existence, uniqueness and ergodicity of invariant measures for Musiela's stochastic partial differential equation with deterministic volatility and a Hilbert space valued driving Lévy noise. Conditions for the absence of arbitrage and for the existence of mild solutions are also discussed.

Prévention des alcoolisations aiguës a l'adolescence: quel rôle pour le médecin de famille [Prevention of binge drinking in adolescents: do family doctors have a role to play?].

Binge drinking has nearly become the norm for young people and is thus worrying. Although alcohol use in males attracts more media attention, females are also frequently affected. A variety of preventive measures can be proposed: at the individual level by parents, peers and family doctors; at the school and community level, particularly to postpone age of first use and first episode of drunkenness; at the structural level through a policy restricting access to alcohol for young people and increasing its price. Family doctors can play an important role in identifying at risk users and individualising preventive messages to which these young people are exposed in other contexts.

NLRP3 inflammasome plays a key role in the regulation of intestinal homeostasis.

BACKGROUND:: Attenuated innate immune responses to the intestinal microbiota have been linked to the pathogenesis of Crohn's disease (CD). Recent genetic studies have revealed that hypofunctional mutations of NLRP3, a member of the NOD-like receptor (NLR) superfamily, are associated with an increased risk of developing CD. NLRP3 is a key component of the inflammasome, an intracellular danger sensor of the innate immune system. When activated, the inflammasome triggers caspase-1-dependent processing of inflammatory mediators, such as IL-1β and IL-18. METHODS:: In the current study we sought to assess the role of the NLRP3 inflammasome in the maintenance of intestinal homeostasis through its regulation of innate protective processes. To investigate this role, Nlrp3(-/-) and wildtype mice were assessed in the dextran sulfate sodium and 2,4,6-trinitrobenzenesulfonic acid models of experimental colitis. RESULTS:: Nlrp3(-/-) mice were found to be more susceptible to experimental colitis, an observation that was associated with reduced IL-1β, reduced antiinflammatory cytokine IL-10, and reduced protective growth factor TGF-β. Macrophages isolated from Nlrp3(-/-) mice failed to respond to bacterial muramyl dipeptide. Furthermore, Nlrp3-deficient neutrophils exhibited reduced chemotaxis and enhanced spontaneous apoptosis, but no change in oxidative burst. Lastly, Nlrp3(-/-) mice displayed altered colonic β-defensin expression, reduced colonic antimicrobial secretions, and a unique intestinal microbiota. CONCLUSIONS:: Our data confirm an essential role for the NLRP3 inflammasome in the regulation of intestinal homeostasis and provide biological insight into disease mechanisms associated with increased risk of CD in individuals with NLRP3 mutations. (Inflamm Bowel Dis 2010).

Predictors of temporary and permanent work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results of the swiss inflammatory bowel disease cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease can decrease the quality of life and induce work disability. We sought to (1) identify and quantify the predictors of disease-specific work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and (2) assess the suitability of using cross-sectional data to predict future outcomes, using the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study data. METHODS: A total of 1187 patients were enrolled and followed up for an average of 13 months. Predictors included patient and disease characteristics and drug utilization. Potential predictors were identified through an expert panel and published literature. We estimated adjusted effect estimates with 95% confidence intervals using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regression. RESULTS: Overall, 699 (58.9%) experienced Crohn's disease and 488 (41.1%) had ulcerative colitis. Most important predictors for temporary work disability in patients with Crohn's disease included gender, disease duration, disease activity, C-reactive protein level, smoking, depressive symptoms, fistulas, extraintestinal manifestations, and the use of immunosuppressants/steroids. Temporary work disability in patients with ulcerative colitis was associated with age, disease duration, disease activity, and the use of steroids/antibiotics. In all patients, disease activity emerged as the only predictor of permanent work disability. Comparing data at enrollment versus follow-up yielded substantial differences regarding disability and predictors, with follow-up data showing greater predictor effects. CONCLUSIONS: We identified predictors of work disability in patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Our findings can help in forecasting these disease courses and guide the choice of appropriate measures to prevent adverse outcomes. Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal data showed that the conduction of cohort studies is inevitable for the examination of disability.

On the transition of genetic differentiation from isolation to panmixia: What we can learn from GST and D.

Population genetic differentiation characterizes the repartition of alleles among populations. It is commonly thought that genetic differentiation measures, such as GST and D, should be near zero when allele frequencies are close to their expected value in panmictic populations, and close to one when they are close to their expected value in isolated populations. To analyse those properties, we first derive analytically a reference function f of known parameters that describes how important features of genetic differentiation (e.g. gene diversity, proportion of private alleles, frequency of the most common allele) are close to their expected panmictic and isolation value. We find that the behaviour of function f differs according to three distinct mutation regimes defined by the scaled mutation rate and the number of populations. Then, we compare GST and D to f, and demonstrate that their signal of differentiation strongly depends on the mutation regime. In particular, we show that D captures well the variations of genetic diversity when mutation is weak, otherwise it overestimates it when panmixia is not met. GST detects population differentiation when mutation is intermediate but has a low sensitivity to the variations of genetic diversity when mutation is weak. When mutation is strong the domain of sensitivity of both measures are altered. Finally, we also point out the importance of the number of populations on genetic differentiation measures, and provide recommendations for the use of GST and D.

The Distribution Dynamics of Output Multipliers in Scotland 1998–2007

In an input-output context the impact of any particular industrial sector is commonly measured in terms of the output multiplier for that industry. Although such measures are routinely calculated and often used to guide regional industrial policy the behaviour of such measures over time is an area that has attracted little academic study. The output multipliers derived from any one table will have a distribution; for some industries the multiplier will be relatively high, for some it will be relatively low. The recentpublication of consistent input-output tables for the Scottish economy makes it possible to examine trends in this mdistribution over the ten year period 1998-2007. This is done by comparing the means and other summary measures of the distributions, the histograms and the cumulative densities. The results indicate a tendency for the multipliers to increase over the period. A Markov chain modelling approach suggests that this drift is a slow but long term phenomenon which appears not to tend to an equilibrium state. The prime reason for the increase in the output multipliers is traced to a decline in the relative importance of imported (both from the rest of the UK and the rest of the world) intermediate inputs used by Scottish industries. This suggests that models calibrated on the set of tables might have to be interpreted with caution.

Electroencephalographic source imaging: a prospective study of 152 operated epileptic patients.

Electroencephalography is mandatory to determine the epilepsy syndrome. However, for the precise localization of the irritative zone in patients with focal epilepsy, costly and sometimes cumbersome imaging techniques are used. Recent small studies using electric source imaging suggest that electroencephalography itself could be used to localize the focus. However, a large prospective validation study is missing. This study presents a cohort of 152 operated patients where electric source imaging was applied as part of the pre-surgical work-up allowing a comparison with the results from other methods. Patients (n = 152) with >1 year postoperative follow-up were studied prospectively. The sensitivity and specificity of each imaging method was defined by comparing the localization of the source maximum with the resected zone and surgical outcome. Electric source imaging had a sensitivity of 84% and a specificity of 88% if the electroencephalogram was recorded with a large number of electrodes (128-256 channels) and the individual magnetic resonance image was used as head model. These values compared favourably with those of structural magnetic resonance imaging (76% sensitivity, 53% specificity), positron emission tomography (69% sensitivity, 44% specificity) and ictal/interictal single-photon emission-computed tomography (58% sensitivity, 47% specificity). The sensitivity and specificity of electric source imaging decreased to 57% and 59%, respectively, with low number of electrodes (<32 channels) and a template head model. This study demonstrated the validity and clinical utility of electric source imaging in a large prospective study. Given the low cost and high flexibility of electroencephalographic systems even with high channel counts, we conclude that electric source imaging is a highly valuable tool in pre-surgical epilepsy evaluation.

Heterogeneous dynamics, aggregation and the persistence of economic shocks

It has been recently emphasized that, if individuals have heterogeneous dynamics, estimates of shock persistence based on aggregate data are significatively higher than those derived from its disaggregate counterpart. However, a careful examination of the implications of this statement on the various tools routinely employed to measure persistence is missing in the literature. This paper formally examines this issue. We consider a disaggregate linear model with heterogeneous dynamics and compare the values of several measures of persistence across aggregation levels. Interestingly, we show that the average persistence of aggregate shocks, as measured by the impulse response function (IRF) of the aggregate model or by the average of the individual IRFs, is identical on all horizons. This result remains true even in situations where the units are (short-memory) stationary but the aggregate process is long-memory or even nonstationary. In contrast, other popular persistence measures, such as the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or the largest autoregressive root, tend to be higher the higher the aggregation level. We argue, however, that this should be seen more as an undesirable property of these measures than as evidence of different average persistence across aggregation levels. The results are illustrated in an application using U.S. inflation data.

Brazilian contributions to epidemiological aspects of schistosomiasis mansoni

A review of epidemiological aspects of endemic areas for schistosomiasis, especially in Brazil, will be presented. These studies, performed by several authors from different states of the country, have been very useful in indicating the relative efficacy of control measures. For example quoting only one aspect, specific treatment was demonstrated by Brazilian researches to be the most important individual tool for morbidity control. More recently the study of risk factors in endemic areas has been seen to be a very important approach when transmission control is the final goal.

Systematics of Triatoma sordida, T. guasayana and T. patagonica (Hemiptera, Reduviidae)

Because of the relative epidemiological significance of Triatoma sordida, T. guasayana and T. patagonica, and the need to resolve doubts about their taxonomic validity, we report here a detailed taxonomic comparison of the three species using multivariate analysis of morphometric measures combined with comparisons of their genitalia and antennal structures. From the 17 metric variables studied, the length of the second segment of the rostrum and the anteocular length provided a discrimination function able to separate without error T. sordida from T. guasayana and T. patagonica. The multivariate discriminant functions classified T. guasayana and T. patagonica with an error of 2.44%. Comparison of the male genitalia of T. guasayana and T. sordida showed that there are minor differences in the articulatory apparatus, the median process of the pygophore, the phallosome support and the vesica, with bigger differences in the endosomal process and the phallosome. However, the already described male genitalia of T. patagonica is very similar to that of T. sordida. Analysis of antennal structure by scanning electron microscope showed that sensilla distribution around the pedicel is slightly different in the three species and sensilla density is highest in T. sordida and lowest in T. patagonica. The study showed that the three species form a closely related group. The results confirm the earlier classification of sordida and guasayana as separate species, but they raise some doubts about the taxonomic status of T. patagonica.

Computing hypergraph width measures exactly

Hypergraph width measures are a class of hypergraph invariants important in studying the complexity of constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs). We present a general exact exponential algorithm for a large variety of these measures. A connection between these and tree decompositions is established. This enables us to almost seamlessly adapt the combinatorial and algorithmic results known for tree decompositions of graphs to the case of hypergraphs and obtain fast exact algorithms. As a consequence, we provide algorithms which, given a hypergraph H on n vertices and m hyperedges, compute the generalized hypertree-width of H in time O*(2n) and compute the fractional hypertree-width of H in time O(1.734601n.m).1

The situation of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis in Brazil today

Specific chemotherapy against schistosomiasis together with environmental changes occurring in endemic areas of Brazil are causing a revolution in the clinico-pathological presentation of the disease when comparing to date from 10 to 15 years ago. To update the subject, an inquire was made among the most experienced Brazilian investigators in this field. They agree that a decrease of about 50 to 70% in prevalence, and an even higher decrease in incidence are taking place in Brazil today. The prevalence of schistosome-infection has decreased in some areas and increased in other, with spreading sometimes occurring to peri-urban regions, indicating that schistosomiasis control depends on the application of multiple measures. General clinical and pathological manifestations related to hepatosplenic disease, such as ascites, gastric hemorrhages, big-spleen syndrome, cor pulmonale, glomerulopathy, etc. are also less severe nowadays than they used to be in the past