Raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität anhand von hochaufgelösten interpolierten Klimakarten am Beispiel von Europa (Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie)

Klimamontoring benötigt eine operative, raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität. Mit dieser Zielsetzung, funktionsbereite Karten regelmäßig zu erstellen, ist es hilfreich auf einen Blick, die räumliche Variabilität der Klimaelemente in der zeitlichen Veränderungen darzustellen. Für aktuelle und kürzlich vergangene Jahre entwickelte der Deutsche Wetterdienst ein Standardverfahren zur Erstellung solcher Karten. Die Methode zur Erstellung solcher Karten variiert für die verschiedenen Klimaelemente bedingt durch die Datengrundlage, die natürliche Variabilität und der Verfügbarkeit der in-situ Daten.rnIm Rahmen der Analyse der raum-zeitlichen Variabilität innerhalb dieser Dissertation werden verschiedene Interpolationsverfahren auf die Mitteltemperatur der fünf Dekaden der Jahre 1951-2000 für ein relativ großes Gebiet, der Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie (Europa und Naher Osten) angewendet. Die Region deckt ein relativ heterogenes Arbeitsgebiet von Grönland im Nordwesten bis Syrien im Südosten hinsichtlich der Klimatologie ab.rnDas zentrale Ziel der Dissertation ist eine Methode zur räumlichen Interpolation der mittleren Dekadentemperaturwerte für die Region VI zu entwickeln. Diese Methode soll in Zukunft für die operative monatliche Klimakartenerstellung geeignet sein. Diese einheitliche Methode soll auf andere Klimaelemente übertragbar und mit der entsprechenden Software überall anwendbar sein. Zwei zentrale Datenbanken werden im Rahmen dieser Dissertation verwendet: So genannte CLIMAT-Daten über dem Land und Schiffsdaten über dem Meer.rnIm Grunde wird die Übertragung der Punktwerte der Temperatur per räumlicher Interpolation auf die Fläche in drei Schritten vollzogen. Der erste Schritt beinhaltet eine multiple Regression zur Reduktion der Stationswerte mit den vier Einflussgrößen der Geographischen Breite, der Höhe über Normalnull, der Jahrestemperaturamplitude und der thermischen Kontinentalität auf ein einheitliches Niveau. Im zweiten Schritt werden die reduzierten Temperaturwerte, so genannte Residuen, mit der Interpolationsmethode der Radialen Basis Funktionen aus der Gruppe der Neuronalen Netzwerk Modelle (NNM) interpoliert. Im letzten Schritt werden die interpolierten Temperaturraster mit der Umkehrung der multiplen Regression aus Schritt eins mit Hilfe der vier Einflussgrößen auf ihr ursprüngliches Niveau hochgerechnet.rnFür alle Stationswerte wird die Differenz zwischen geschätzten Wert aus der Interpolation und dem wahren gemessenen Wert berechnet und durch die geostatistische Kenngröße des Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) wiedergegeben. Der zentrale Vorteil ist die wertegetreue Wiedergabe, die fehlende Generalisierung und die Vermeidung von Interpolationsinseln. Das entwickelte Verfahren ist auf andere Klimaelemente wie Niederschlag, Schneedeckenhöhe oder Sonnenscheindauer übertragbar.

Reforming dell'etanolo con processo ciclico: studio della reattività di ossidi misti con struttura spinello

This work deals with a study on the feasibility of a new process, aimed at the production of hydrogen from water and ethanol (a compound obtained starting from biomasses), with inherent separation of hydrogen from C-containing products. The strategy of the process includes a first step, during which a metal oxide is contacted with ethanol at high temperature; during this step, the metal oxide is reduced and the corresponding metallic form develops. During the second step, the reduced metal compound is contacted at high temperature with water, to produce molecular hydrogen and with formation of the original metal oxide. In overall, the combination of the two steps within the cycle process corresponds to ethanol reforming, where however COx and H2 are produced separately. Various mixed metal oxides were used as electrons and ionic oxygen carriers, all of them being characterized by the spinel structure typical of M-modified non-stoichiometric ferrites: M0,6Fe2,4O4 (M = Co, Mn or Co/Mn). The first step was investigated in depth; it was found that besides the generation of the expected CO, CO2 and H2O, the products of ethanol anaerobic oxidation, also a large amount of H2 and coke were produced. The latter is highly undesired, since it affects the second step, during which water is fed over the pre-reduced spinel at high temperature. The behavior of the different spinels was affected by the nature of the divalent metal cation. The new materials were tested in terms of both redox proprieties and catalytic activity to generate hydrogen. Still the problem of coke formation remains the greater challenge to solve.

Rarely selected distractors in high stakes medical multiple-choice examinations and their recognition by item authors: A simulation and survey

Background Many medical exams use 5 options for multiple choice questions (MCQs), although the literature suggests that 3 options are optimal. Previous studies on this topic have often been based on non-medical examinations, so we sought to analyse rarely selected, 'non-functional' distractors (NF-D) in high stakes medical examinations, and their detection by item authors as well as psychometric changes resulting from a reduction in the number of options. Methods Based on Swiss Federal MCQ examinations from 2005-2007, the frequency of NF-D (selected by <1% or <5% of the candidates) was calculated. Distractors that were chosen the least or second least were identified and candidates who chose them were allocated to the remaining options using two extreme assumptions about their hypothetical behaviour: In case rarely selected distractors were eliminated, candidates could randomly choose another option - or purposively choose the correct answer, from which they had originally been distracted. In a second step, 37 experts were asked to mark the least plausible options. The consequences of a reduction from 4 to 3 or 2 distractors - based on item statistics or on the experts' ratings - with respect to difficulty, discrimination and reliability were modelled. Results About 70% of the 5-option-items had at least 1 NF-D selected by <1% of the candidates (97% for NF-Ds selected by <5%). Only a reduction to 2 distractors and assuming that candidates would switch to the correct answer in the absence of a 'non-functional' distractor led to relevant differences in reliability and difficulty (and to a lesser degree discrimination). The experts' ratings resulted in slightly greater changes compared to the statistical approach. Conclusions Based on item statistics and/or an expert panel's recommendation, the choice of a varying number of 3-4 (or partly 2) plausible distractors could be performed without marked deteriorations in psychometric characteristics.

Synthesis of bis(3-{[2-(allyloxy)ethoxy]methyl}-2,4,6-trimethylbenzoyl)(phenyl)phosphine oxide - a tailor-made photoinitiator for dental adhesives

Because of the poor solubility of the commercially available bisacylphosphine oxides in dental acidic aqueous primer formulations, bis(3-{[2-(allyloxy)ethoxy]methyl}-2,4,6-trimethylbenzoyl)(phenyl)phosphine oxide (WBAPO) was synthesized starting from 3-(chloromethyl)-2,4,6-trimethylbenzoic acid by the dichlorophosphine route. The substituent was introduced by etherification with 2-(allyloxy)ethanol. In the second step, 3-{[2-(allyloxy)ethoxy]methyl}-2,4,6-trimethylbenzoic acid was chlorinated. The formed acid chloride showed an unexpected low thermal stability. Its thermal rearrangement at 180 ° C resulted in a fast formation of 3-(chloromethyl)-2,4,6-trimethylbenzoic acid 2-(allyloxy)ethyl ester. In the third step, the acid chloride was reacted with phenylphosphine dilithium with the formation of bis(3-{[2-(allyloxy)ethoxy]methyl}-2,4,6-trimethylbenzoyl)(phenyl)phosphine, which was oxidized to WBAPO. The structure of WBAPO was confirmed by ¹H NMR, ¹³C NMR, ³¹P NMR, and IR spectroscopy, as well as elemental analysis. WBAPO, a yellow liquid, possesses improved solubility in polar solvents and shows UV-vis absorption, and a high photoreactivity comparable with the commercially available bisacylphosphine oxides. A sufficient storage stability was found in dental acidic aqueous primer formulations.

The MSSM with a softly broken U(2)^3 flavor symmetry

In this article we review the phenomenological consequences of radiative flavor-violation (RFV) in the MSSM. In the model under consideration the U(3)^3 flavor symmetry of the gauge sector is broken in a first step to U(2)^3 by the top and bottom Yukawa couplings of the superpotential (and possibly also by the bilinear SUSY-breaking terms). In a second step the remaining U(2)^3 flavor symmetry is softly broken by the trilinear A-terms in order to obtain the measured quark masses and the CKM matrix of the Standard Model (SM) at low energies. The phenomenological implications of this model depend on the actual choice of the SUSY breaking A-terms. If the CKM matrix is generated in the down sector (by A^d), Bs->mu^+mu^- receives non-decoupling contributions from Higgs penguins which become important already for moderate values of tan(beta). Also the Bs mixing amplitude can be significantly modified compared to the SM prediction including a potential induction of a new CP-violating phase (which is not possible in the MSSM with MFV).

Do Zebra Finch Parents Fail to Recognise Their Own Offspring?

Individual recognition systems require the sender to be individually distinctive and the receiver to be able to perceive differences between individuals and react accordingly. Many studies have demonstrated that acoustic signals of almost any species contain individualized information. However, fewer studies have tested experimentally if those signals are used for individual recognition by potential receivers. While laboratory studies using zebra finches have shown that fledglings recognize their parents by their “distance call”, mutual recognition using the same call type has not been demonstrated yet. In a laboratory study with zebra finches, we first quantified between-individual acoustic variation in distance calls of fledglings. In a second step, we tested recognition of fledgling calls by parents using playback experiments. With a discriminant function analysis, we show that individuals are highly distinctive and most measured parameters show very high potential to encode for individuality. The response pattern of zebra finch parents shows that they do react to calls of fledglings, however they do not distinguish between own and unfamiliar offspring, despite individual distinctiveness. This finding is interesting in light of the observation of a high percentage of misdirected feedings in our communal breeding aviaries. Our results demonstrate the importance of adopting a receiver's perspective and suggest that variation in fledgling contact calls might not be used in individual recognition of offspring.

Characterization of CDKN2A(p16) methylation and impact in colorectal cancer: systematic analysis using pyrosequencing

Background The aim of this study is to analyse CDKN2A methylation using pyrosequencing on a large cohort of colorectal cancers and corresponding non-neoplastic tissues. In a second step, the effect of methylation on clinical outcome is addressed. Methods Primary colorectal cancers and matched non-neoplastic tissues from 432 patients underwent CDKN2A methylation analysis by pyrosequencing (PyroMarkQ96). Methylation was then related to clinical outcome, microsatellite instability (MSI), and BRAF and KRAS mutation. Different amplification conditions (35 to 50 PCR cycles) using a range of 0-100% methylated DNA were tested. Results Background methylation was at most 10% with ≥35 PCR cycles. Correlation of observed and expected values was high, even at low methylation levels (0.02%, 0.6%, 2%). Accuracy of detection was optimal with 45 PCR cycles. Methylation in normal mucosa ranged from 0 to >90% in some cases. Based on the maximum value of 10% background, positivity was defined as a ≥20% difference in methylation between tumor and normal tissue, which occurred in 87 cases. CDKN2A methylation positivity was associated with MSI (p = 0.025), BRAF mutation (p < 0.0001), higher tumor grade (p < 0.0001), mucinous histology (p = 0.0209) but not with KRAS mutation. CDKN2A methylation had an independent adverse effect (p = 0.0058) on prognosis. Conclusion The non-negligible CDKN2A methylation of normal colorectal mucosa may confound the assessment of tumor-specific hypermethylation, suggesting that corresponding non-neoplastic tissue should be used as a control. CDKN2A methylation is robustly detected by pyrosequencing, even at low levels, suggesting that this unfavorable prognostic biomarker warrants investigation in prospective studies.

The Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale in subjects clinically at high risk of psychosis

Objective:  To investigate the predictive value of the Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale (SCPS) for transition to a first psychotic episode in subjects clinically at high risk (CHR) of psychosis. Method:  Two hundred and forty-four CHR subjects participating in the European Prediction of Psychosis Study were assessed with the SCPS, an instrument that has been shown to predict outcome in patients with schizophrenia reliably. Results:  At 18-month follow-up, 37 participants had made the transition to psychosis. The SCPS total score was predictive of a first psychotic episode (P < 0.0001). SCPS items that remained as independent predictors in the Cox proportional hazard model were as follows: most usual quality of useful work in the past year (P = 0.006), quality of social relations (P = 0.006), presence of thought disorder, delusions or hallucinations in the past year (P = 0.001) and reported severity of subjective distress in past month (P = 0.003). Conclusion:  The SCPS could make a valuable contribution to a more accurate prediction of psychosis in CHR subjects as a second-step tool. SCPS items assessing quality of useful work and social relations, positive symptoms and subjective distress have predictive value for transition. Further research should focus on investigating whether targeted early interventions directed at the predictive domains may improve outcomes.

Social Stratification of the Alans of North Caucasus (IV-IX Cents. A.D.)

Dmitry Korobov. Social Stratification of the Alans of the North Caucasus (4th-9th Centuries A.D.) There were two stages to this project: studies of the differences between local groups of catacomb cemeteries in the North Caucasus, and an analysis of social ranks among the Alans on the basis of the large cemeteries. The first stage involved a cluster analysis of 100 cemeteries on the basis of the variables of longitude and latitude, which made it possible to identify 11 local groups of cemeteries. This was followed by a study of the difference between burial rites charcterising flat graves and barrow burials and between catacombs of different periods within these two main groups. Korobov then looked at the difference between the catacombs of various local groups. The second step was an investigation of the social structure of the Alanic tribes. Here Korobov first selected gender-specific grave goods of adult burials on the basis of large cemeteries, and compared single male and female burials on the basis of the associated grave goods. He then used a cluster analysis to draw up a subdivision of male and female burials according to their grave goods, and interpreted the results obtained with the help of ethnographic and written sources.

Integrated psychological therapy (IPT) for schizophrenia: is it effective?

Against the background of evidence-based treatments for schizophrenia, nowadays the implementation of specific cognitive and behavioral interventions becomes more important in the standard care of these patients. Over the past 25 years, research groups in 9 countries have carried out 30 independent evaluations of Integrated Psychological Therapy (IPT), a group program that combines neurocognitive and social cognitive interventions with social skills approaches for schizophrenic patients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of IPT under varying treatment and research conditions in academic and nonacademic sites. In a first step, all 30 published IPT studies with the participation of 1393 schizophrenic patients were included in the meta-analysis. In a second step, only high-quality studies (HQS) (7 studies including 362 patients) were selected and analyzed to check whether they confirmed the results of the first step. Positive mean effect sizes favoring IPT over control groups (placebo-attention conditions, standard care) were found for all dependent variables, including symptoms, psychosocial functioning, and neurocognition. Moreover, the superiority of IPT continued to increase during an average follow-up period of 8.1 months. IPT obtained similarly favorable effects across the different outcome domains, assessment formats (expert ratings, self-reports, and psychological tests), settings (inpatient vs outpatient and academic vs nonacademic), and phases of treatment (acute vs chronic). The HQS confirmed the results of the complete sample. The analysis indicates that IPT is an effective rehabilitation approach for schizophrenia that is robust across a wide range of patients and treatment conditions.

Genome-wide search for markers associated with osteochondrosis in Hanoverian warmblood horses

A genome-wide scan was performed to detect quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for osteochondrosis (OC) and osteochondrosis dissecans (OCD) in horses. The marker set comprised 260 microsatellites. We collected data from 211 Hanoverian warmblood horses consisting of 14 paternal half-sib families. Traits used were OC (fetlock and/or hock joints affected), OCD (fetlock and/or hock joints affected), fetlock OC, fetlock OCD, hock OC, and hock OCD. The first genome scan included 172 microsatellite markers. In a second step 88 additional markers were chosen to refine putative QTLs found in the first scan. Genome-wide significant QTLs were located on equine chromosomes 2, 4, 5, and 16. QTLs for fetlock OC and hock OC partly overlapped on the same chromosomes, indicating that these traits may be genetically related. QTLs reached the chromosome-wide significance level on eight different equine chromosomes: 2, 3, 4, 5, 15, 16, 19, and 21. This whole-genome scan was a first step toward the identification of candidate genome regions harboring genes responsible for equine OC. Further investigations are necessary to refine the map positions of the QTLs already identified for OC.

PROPERTIES AND STRUCTURES OF Li-N BASED HYDROGEN STORAGE MATERIALS

Traditional transportation fuel, petroleum, is limited and nonrenewable, and it also causes pollutions. Hydrogen is considered one of the best alternative fuels for transportation. The key issue for using hydrogen as fuel for transportation is hydrogen storage. Lithium nitride (Li3N) is an important material which can be used for hydrogen storage. The decompositions of lithium amide (LiNH2) and lithium imide (Li2NH) are important steps for hydrogen storage in Li3N. The effect of anions (e.g. Cl-) on the decomposition of LiNH2 has never been studied. Li3N can react with LiBr to form lithium nitride bromide Li13N4Br which has been proposed as solid electrolyte for batteries. The decompositions of LiNH2 and Li2NH with and without promoter were investigated by using temperature programmed decomposition (TPD) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques. It was found that the decomposition of LiNH2 produced Li2NH and NH3 via two steps: LiNH2 into a stable intermediate species (Li1.5NH1.5) and then into Li2NH. The decomposition of Li2NH produced Li, N2 and H2 via two steps: Li2NH into an intermediate species --- Li4NH and then into Li. The kinetic analysis of Li2NH decomposition showed that the activation energies are 533.6 kJ/mol for the first step and 754.2 kJ/mol for the second step. Furthermore, XRD demonstrated that the Li4NH, which was generated in the decomposition of Li2NH, formed a solid solution with Li2NH. In the solid solution, Li4NH possesses a similar cubic structure as Li2NH. The lattice parameter of the cubic Li4NH is 0.5033nm. The decompositions of LiNH2 and Li2NH can be promoted by chloride ion (Cl-). The introduction of Cl- into LiNH2 resulted in the generation of a new NH3 peak at low temperature of 250 °C besides the original NH3 peak at 330 °C in TPD profiles. Furthermore, Cl- can decrease the decomposition temperature of Li2NH by about 110 °C. The degradation of Li3N was systematically investigated with techniques of XRD, Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy, and UV-visible spectroscopy. It was found that O2 could not affect Li3N at room temperature. However, H2O in air can cause the degradation of Li3N due to the reaction between H2O and Li3N to LiOH. The produced LiOH can further react with CO2 in air to Li2CO3 at room temperature. Furthermore, it was revealed that Alfa-Li3N is more stable in air than Beta-Li3N. The chemical stability of Li13N4Br in air has been investigated by XRD, TPD-MS, and UV-vis absorption as a function of time. The aging process finally leads to the degradation of the Li13N4Br into Li2CO3, lithium bromite (LiBrO2) and the release of gaseous NH3. The reaction order n = 2.43 is the best fitting for the Li13N4Br degradation in air reaction. Li13N4Br energy gap was calculated to be 2.61 eV.

Stereoselective biotransformation of ketamine in equine liver and lung microsomes

Stereoselectivity has to be considered for pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic features of ketamine. Stereoselective biotransformation of ketamine was investigated in equine microsomes in vitro. Concentration curves were constructed over time, and enzyme activity was determined for different substrate concentrations using equine liver and lung microsomes. The concentrations of R/S-ketamine and R/S-norketamine were determined by enantioselective capillary electrophoresis. A two-phase model based on Hill kinetics was used to analyze the biotransformation of R/S-ketamine into R/S-norketamine and, in a second step, into R/S-downstream metabolites. In liver and lung microsomes, levels of R-ketamine exceeded those of S-ketamine at all time points and S-norketamine exceeded R-norketamine at time points below the maximum concentration. In liver and lung microsomes, significant differences in the enzyme velocity (V(max)) were observed between S- and R-norketamine formation and between V(max) of S-norketamine formation when S-ketamine was compared to S-ketamine of the racemate. Our investigations in microsomal reactions in vitro suggest that stereoselective ketamine biotransformation in horses occurs in the liver and the lung with a slower elimination of S-ketamine in the presence of R-ketamine. Scaling of the in vitro parameters to liver and lung organ clearances provided an excellent fit with previously published in vivo data and confirmed a lung first-pass effect.

High level methods for scene exploration

Virtual worlds exploration techniques are used in a wide variety of domains — from graph drawing to robot motion. This paper is dedicated to virtual world exploration techniques which have to help a human being to understand a 3D scene. An improved method of viewpoint quality estimation is presented in the paper, together with a new off-line method for automatic 3D scene exploration, based on a virtual camera. The automatic exploration method is working in two steps. In the first step, a set of “good” viewpoints is computed. The second step uses this set of points of view to compute a camera path around the scene. Finally, we define a notion of semantic distance between objects of the scene to improve the approach.

Automatic Data Normalization and Parameterization for Optical Motion Tracking

Methods for optical motion capture often require timeconsuming manual processing before the data can be used for subsequent tasks such as retargeting or character animation. These processing steps restrict the applicability of motion capturing especially for dynamic VR-environments with real time requirements. To solve these problems, we present two additional, fast and automatic processing stages based on our motion capture pipeline presented in [HSK05]. A normalization step aligns the recorded coordinate systems with the skeleton structure to yield a common and intuitive data basis across different recording sessions. A second step computes a parameterization based on automatically extracted main movement axes to generate a compact motion description. Our method does not restrict the placement of marker bodies nor the recording setup, and only requires a short calibration phase.