Is there a “case for property” all the time?

The “case for property” in the mixed-asset portfolio is a topic of continuing interest to practitioners and academics. Such an analysis typically is performed over a fixed period of time and the optimum allocation to property inferred from the weight assigned to property through the use of mean-variance analysis. It is well known, however, that the parameters used in the portfolio analysis problem are unstable through time. Thus, the weight proposed for property in one period is unlikely to be that found in another. Consequently, in order to assess the case for property more thoroughly, the impact of property in the mixed-asset portfolio is evaluated on a rolling basis over a long period of time. In this way we test whether the inclusion of property significantly improves the performance of an existing equity/bond portfolio all of the time. The main findings are that the inclusion of direct property into an existing equity/bond portfolio leads to increase or decreases in return, depending on the relative performance of property compared with the other asset classes. However, including property in the mixed-asset portfolio always leads to reductions in portfolio risk. Consequently, adding property into an equity/bond portfolio can lead to significant increases in risk-adjusted performance. Thus, if the decision to include direct property in the mixed-asset portfolio is based upon its diversification benefits the answer is yes, there is a “case for property” all the time!

The determination of total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations in freshwaters from land use, stock headage and population data: testing of a model for use in conservation and water quality management

1. Nutrient concentrations (particularly N and P) determine the extent to which water bodies are or may become eutrophic. Direct determination of nutrient content on a wide scale is labour intensive but the main sources of N and P are well known. This paper describes and tests an export coefficient model for prediction of total N and total P from: (i) land use, stock headage and human population; (ii) the export rates of N and P from these sources; and (iii) the river discharge. Such a model might be used to forecast the effects of changes in land use in the future and to hindcast past water quality to establish comparative or baseline states for the monitoring of change. 2. The model has been calibrated against observed data for 1988 and validated against sets of observed data for a sequence of earlier years in ten British catchments varying from uplands through rolling, fertile lowlands to the flat topography of East Anglia. 3. The model predicted total N and total P concentrations with high precision (95% of the variance in observed data explained). It has been used in two forms: the first on a specific catchment basis; the second for a larger natural region which contains the catchment with the assumption that all catchments within that region will be similar. Both models gave similar results with little loss of precision in the latter case. This implies that it will be possible to describe the overall pattern of nutrient export in the UK with only a fraction of the effort needed to carry out the calculations for each individual water body. 4. Comparison between land use, stock headage, population numbers and nutrient export for the ten catchments in the pre-war year of 1931, and for 1970 and 1988 show that there has been a substantial loss of rough grazing to fertilized temporary and permanent grasslands, an increase in the hectarage devoted to arable, consistent increases in the stocking of cattle and sheep and a marked movement of humans to these rural catchments. 5. All of these trends have increased the flows of nutrients with more than a doubling of both total N and total P loads during the period. On average in these rural catchments, stock wastes have been the greatest contributors to both N and P exports, with cultivation the next most important source of N and people of P. Ratios of N to P were high in 1931 and remain little changed so that, in these catchments, phosphorus continues to be the nutrient most likely to control algal crops in standing waters supplied by the rivers studied.

Enhancement of buffer strips can improve provision of multiple ecosystem services

Farmland invertebrates play a pivotal role in the provision of ecosystem services, i.e. services that benefit humans. For example, bumblebees, solitary bees and honeybees, are crucial to the pollination of many of the world's crops and wildflowers, with over 70% of the world's major food crops dependent on the pollination services provided by these insects. The larvae of some butterfly species are considered to be pests; however, together with moth and sawfly larvae, they represent a key dietary component for many farmland birds. Spiders and ground beetles predate on crop pests including aphids, whilst soil macrofauna such as earthworms are vital for soil fertility services and nutrient recycling. Despite their importance, population declines of invertebrates have been observed during the last sixty years in the UK and NW Europe. For example, seven UK bumblebee species are in decline, and in the last 20 years, the species Bombus subterraneus (short-haired bumblebee) has become extinct, whilst there was a 54% decline in honeybee colony numbers in England from 1985 to 2005. Comparable trends have been documented for butterflies with a 23% decline in UK farmland species such as Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip) between 1990 and 2007. These declines have been widely attributed to the modern intensive arable management practices that have been developed to maximise crop yield. For example, loss and fragmentation of foraging and nesting habitats, including species-rich meadows and hedgerows, have been implicated in the decline of bees and butterflies. Increased use of herbicides and fertilisers has caused detrimental effects on many plant species with negative consequences for predatory invertebrates such as spiders and beetles which rely on plants for food and shelter.

On the need for a new playing die

We model the rolling of a standard die, using a Markov matrix. Though a die may be called ‘fair’, its initial position influences a roll’s outcome. This being undesirable, a simple solution is proposed.

Influence of shape and absorbing surface: a numerical study of railway noise barriers

Results are presented of a study of a performance of various track-side railway noise barriers, determined by using a two- dimensional numerical boundary element model. The basic model uses monopole sources and has been adapted to allow the sources to exhibit dipole-type radiation characteristics. A comparison of boundary element predictions of the performance of simple barriers and vehicle shapes is made with results obtained by using the standard U.K. prediction method. The results obtained from the numerical model indicate that modifying the source to exhibit dipole characteristics becomes more significant as the height of the barrier increases, and suggest that for any particular shape, absorbent barriers provide much better screening efficiency than the rigid equivalent. The cross-section of the rolling stock significantly affects the performance of rigid barriers. If the position of the upper edge is fixed, the results suggest that simple absorptive barriers provide more effective screening than tilted barriers. The addition of multiple edges to a barrier provides additional insertion loss without any increase in barrier height.

Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility

Quantile forecasts are central to risk management decisions because of the widespread use of Value-at-Risk. A quantile forecast is the product of two factors: the model used to forecast volatility, and the method of computing quantiles from the volatility forecasts. In this paper we calculate and evaluate quantile forecasts of the daily exchange rate returns of five currencies. The forecasting models that have been used in recent analyses of the predictability of daily realized volatility permit a comparison of the predictive power of different measures of intraday variation and intraday returns in forecasting exchange rate variability. The methods of computing quantile forecasts include making distributional assumptions for future daily returns as well as using the empirical distribution of predicted standardized returns with both rolling and recursive samples. Our main findings are that the Heterogenous Autoregressive model provides more accurate volatility and quantile forecasts for currencies which experience shifts in volatility, such as the Canadian dollar, and that the use of the empirical distribution to calculate quantiles can improve forecasts when there are shifts

Modern pollen samples from alpine vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau.

1  A set of 316 modern surface pollen samples, sampling all the alpine vegetation types that occur on the Tibetan Plateau, has been compiled and analysed. Between 82 and 92% of the pollen present in these samples is derived from only 28 major taxa. These 28 taxa include examples of both tree (AP) and herb (NAP) pollen types. 2  Most of the modern surface pollen samples accurately reflect the composition of the modern vegetation in the sampling region. However, airborne dust-trap pollen samples do not provide a reliable assessment of the modern vegetation. Dust-trap samples contain much higher percentages of tree pollen than non-dust-trap samples, and many of the taxa present are exotic. In the extremely windy environments of the Tibetan Plateau, contamination of dust-trap samples by long-distance transport of exotic pollen is a serious problem. 3  The most characteristic vegetation types present on the Tibetan Plateau are alpine meadows, steppe and desert. Non-arboreal pollen (NAP) therefore dominates the pollen samples in most regions. Percentages of arboreal pollen (AP) are high in samples from the southern and eastern Tibetan Plateau, where alpine forests are an important component of the vegetation. The relative importance of forest and non-forest vegetation across the Plateau clearly follows climatic gradients: forests occur on the southern and eastern margins of the Plateau, supported by the penetration of moisture-bearing airmasses associated with the Indian and Pacific summer monsoons; open, treeless vegetation is dominant in the interior and northern margins of the Plateau, far from these moisture sources. 4  The different types of non-forest vegetation are characterized by different modern pollen assemblages. Thus, alpine deserts are characterized by high percentages of Chenopodiaceae and Artemisia, with Ephedra and Nitraria. Alpine meadows are characterized by high percentages of Cyperaceae and Artemisia, with Ranunculaceae and Polygonaceae. Alpine steppe is characterized by high abundances of Artemisia, with Compositae, Cruciferae and Chenopodiaceae. Although Artemisia is a common component of all non-forest vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau, the presence of other taxa makes it possible to discriminate between the different vegetation types. 5  The good agreement between modern vegetation and modern surface pollen samples across the Tibetan Plateau provides a measure of the reliability of using pollen data to reconstruct past vegetation patterns in non-forested areas.

Dating the dead: a high-resolution radiocarbon chronology of burial Within an Early Bronze Age barrow cemetery at Over, Cambridgeshire

This paper outlines the results of a programme of radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modelling relating to an Early Bronze Age barrow cemetery at Over, Cambridgeshire. In total, 43 dates were obtained, enabling the first high-resolution independent chronology (relating to both burial and architectural events) to be constructed for a site of this kind. The results suggest that the three main turf-mound barrows were probably constructed and used successively rather than simultaneously, that the shift from inhumation to cremation seen on the site was not a straightforward progression, and that the four main ‘types’ of cremation burial in evidence were used throughout the life of the site. Overall, variability in terms of burial practice appears to have been a key feature of the site. The paper also considers the light that the fine-grained chronology developed can shed on recent much wider discussions of memory and time within Early Bronze Age barrows

Season of birth and sheep husbandry in late Roman and Medieval coastal Flanders: a pilot study using tooth enamel d18O analysis

From the early Roman period, there is archaeological evidence for the exploitation of the Flemish coastal plain (Belgium) for a range of activities, such as sheep herding on the then developing salt-marshes and salt-meadows for the production of wool. During the early Middle Ages, this culminated in the establishment of dedicated ‘sheep estates’. This phase of exploitation was followed by extensive drainage and land reclamation measures in the high Medieval period, transforming areas into grassland, suited for cattle breeding. As part of a larger project investigating the onset, intensification and final decline of sheep management in coastal Flanders in the historical period, this pilot study presents the results of sequential sampling and oxygen isotope analysis of a number of sheep teeth (M2, n = 8) from four late Roman and Medieval sites (dating from 4th to 15th century AD), in order to assess potential variations in season of birth between the different sites and through time. In comparison with published data from herds of known birth season, incremental enamel data from the Flemish sites are consistent with late winter/spring births, with the possibility of some instances of slightly earlier parturition. These findings suggest that manipulation of season of birth was not a feature of the sheep husbandry-based economies of early historic Flanders, further evidencing that wool production was the main purpose of contemporary sheep rearing in the region. Manipulation of season of birth is not likely to have afforded economic advantage in wool-centred economies, unlike in some milk- or meat-based regimes.

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

A large and enigmatic new eleutherodactyline frog (Anura, Strabomantidae) from Serra do Sincora, Espinhaco range, northeastern Brazil

We describe a new species of a large eleutherodactyline frog from the mountain rocky meadows (""campos rupestres"") of the Serra do Sincora, Espinha o mountain range, Mucuge municipality, State of Bahia, Brazil. The new species is promptly diagnosed from all the other Brazilian eleutherodactylines by its large size (males SVL 40.3-41.1; females SVL 75.2-79.7mm), broad head (head width 43-49% of SVL), presence of frontoparietal crests, pars fascialis of the maxilla deepened, discs absent on fingers, toes with poorly developed discs, first and second toes ridged, and tarsal fold absent. On the basis of these characters the new species is attributed to the genus Strabomantis up to now restricted to southern part of Central America and northwest part of South America.

A new microteiid lizard of the genus Acratosaura (Squamata: Gymnophthalmidae) from Serra do Sincora, State of Bahia, Brazil

A new species of the genus Acratosaura is described on the basis of two specimens obtained at the ""campos rupestres"" (rocky meadows) near Mucuge municipality, state of Bahia, Brazil. Acratosaura spinosa sp. nov., has ear openings and eyelids, pentadactyl limbs lacking a claw on first toe, a single frontonasal, prefrontals, frontoparietals, parietals, interparietals, occipitals, no collar fold, three pairs of genials, three supraoculars and three superciliaries and is further characterized by presenting 28-31 rows of strongly keeled, lanceolate and imbricate dorsal scales, sides of the neck with keeled scales, striate temporal scales, four longitudinal and 17-18 transverse rows of smooth ventral scales, 28-30 scales around the body, 14 and 19-20 infradigital lamellae under finger IV and toe IV, respectively, 13 total preanal and femoral pores in male, absent in female. The new species differs strikingly in color pattern from its only congener A. mentalis. The two species occur sympatricaly in the high altitude open habitats near the type locality.

Microcystins -LA, -YR, and -LR action on neutrophil migration

Microcystins (MCs) produced by some freshwater cyanobacterial species possess potent liver toxicity as evidenced by acute neutrophil infiltration. Here, we investigate the ability of three structurally distinct toxins (MC-LA, MC-LR, and MC-YR) to evoke neutrophil recruitment per se and their effects on migration pathways. Intravital Microscopic Studies showed that topical application of only MC-LR enhanced the numbers of rolling and adhered leukocytes in the endothelium of postcapillary mesenteric venules. The latter effects may be dependent upon induction of the synthesis and expression Of L-selectin and beta(2)-integrin in neutrophils, as assessed by flow cytometry and RT-PCR, respectively. Conversely, the three toxins promoted direct locomotion of neutrophils and enhanced their migration in response to NO, as measured by Boyden chamber assays, and increased intracellular calcium, a messenger in the chemotaxic process. In conclusion, our results show that MCs act on specific pathways of neutrophil recruitment, indicating their potential effect on neutrophils activation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dietary Free Oleic and Linoleic Acid Enhances Neutrophil Function and Modulates the Inflammatory Response in Rats

The high ingestion of oleic (OLA) and linoleic (LNA) acids by Western populations, the presence of inflammatory diseases in these populations, and the importance of neutrophils in the inflammatory process led us to investigate the effects of oral ingestion of unesterified OLA and LNA on rat neutrophil function. Pure OLA and LNA were administered by gavage over 10 days. The doses used (0.11, 0.22 and 0.44 g/kg of body weight) were based on the Western consumption of OLA and LNA. Neither fatty acid affected food, calorie or water intake. The fatty acids were not toxic to neutrophils as evaluated by cytometry using propidium iodide (membrane integrity and DNA fragmentation). Neutrophil migration in response to intraperitoneal injection of glycogen and in the air pouch assay, was elevated after administration of either OLA or LNA. This effect was associated with enhancement of rolling and increased release of the chemokine CINC-2 alpha beta. Both fatty acids elevated l-selectin expression, whereas no effect on beta(2)-integrin expression was observed, as evaluated by flow cytometry. LNA increased the production of proinflammatory cytokines (IL-1 beta and CINC-2 alpha beta) by neutrophils after 4 h in culture and both fatty acids decreased the release of the same cytokines after 18 h. In conclusion, OLA and LNA modulate several functions of neutrophils and can influence the inflammatory process.