A Note on the Prior Distributions of Weibull Parameters for the Reliability Function

In Bayesian Inference it is often desirable to have a posterior density reflecting mainly the information from sample data. To achieve this purpose it is important to employ prior densities which add little information to the sample. We have in the literature many such prior densities, for example, Jeffreys (1967), Lindley (1956); (1961), Hartigan (1964), Bernardo (1979), Zellner (1984), Tibshirani (1989), etc. In the present article, we compare the posterior densities of the reliability function by using Jeffreys, the maximal data information (Zellner, 1984), Tibshirani's, and reference priors for the reliability function R(t) in a Weibull distribution.

The reliability of experts' opinions in constructing a composite environmental index: The case of ESI 2005

The complexity of the environment demands a well-constructed composite environmental index (CEI) to provide a useful tool to draw attention to environmental conditions and trends for policy purposes. Among the common difficulties in constructing a proper CEI are uncertainties due to the selection of the most representative underlying variables or indicators. A degree of uncertainty accompanies experts' judgments, and to deal with vague, subjective or inconsistent information, logic other than classic is required. This study analyzes a procedure that uses different experts' opinions in constructing a CEI. with the use of paraconsistent annotated logic. For this, a sensitivity analysis of the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI 2005) was used as an example to assess the reliability of experts' opinions. The uncertainty due to the disagreement in experts' opinions clearly indicates that the forms we presently use to measure and monitor the actual environment are insufficient, that is, there is a lack of a "science of sustainability". (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability of carnitine concentrations measured in single postprandial urine samples from dogs

Objective - To evaluate the reliability of urine carnitine concentrations measured in single postprandial samples, compared with carnitine concentrations measured in 24-hour urine samples. Animals - 19 healthy Beagles. Procedure - After emptying the urinary bladder by catheterization, dogs were fed a canned canine maintenance diet. Approximately 8 hours later, urine, plasma, and serum samples were obtained for determination of urinary carnitine fractional excretion and urine carnitine-to-creatinine concentration ratio. Results were compared with 24-hour urinary carnitine excretion rate. Results - Fractional excretion of carnitine and urine carnitine-to-creatinine ratios correlated poorly with 24-hour urinary carnitine excretion. Conclusion - Determination of 24-hour urinary carnitine excretion is recommended to measure urine carnitine concentrations in dogs.

Optimized allocation of sectionalizing switches and control and protection devices for reliability indices improvement in distribution systems

Reliability of power supply is related, among other factors, to the control and protection devices allocation in feeders of distribution systems. In this way, optimized allocation of sectionalizing switches and protection devices in strategic points of distribution circuits, improves the quality of power supply and the system reliability indices. In this work, it is presented a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model, with real and binary variables, for the sectionalizing switches and protection devices allocation problem, in strategic sectors, aimed at improving reliability indices, increasing the utilities billing and fulfilling exigencies of regulatory agencies for the power supply. Optimized allocation of protection devices and switches for restoration, allows that those faulted sectors of the system can be isolated and repaired, re-managing loads of the analyzed feeder into the set of neighbor feeders. Proposed solution technique is a Genetic Algorithm (GA) developed exploiting the physical characteristics of the problem. Results obtained through simulations for a real-life circuit, are presented. © 2004 IEEE.

Reliability evaluation of distribution systems considering automatic reclosers

This paper presents a new methodology to evaluate in a predictive way the reliability of distribution systems, considering the impact of automatic recloser switches. The developed algorithm is based on state enumeration techniques with Markovian models and on the minimal cut set theory. Some computational aspects related with the implementation of the proposed algorithm in typical distribution networks are also discussed. The description of the proposed approach is carried out using a sample test system. The results obtained with a typical configuration of a Brazilian system (EDP Bandeirante Energia S.A.) are presented and discussed.

Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Reliability of timber bridges using nailed plywood box beams

The Nailed Box Beam structural efficiency is directly dependent of the flange-web joint behavior, which determines the partial composition of the section, as the displacement between elements reduces the effective rigidity of the section and changes the stress distribution and the total displacement of the section. This work discusses the use of Nailed Plywood Box Beams in small span timber bridges, focusing on the reliability of the beam element. It is presented the results of tests carried out in 21 full scale Nailed Plywood Box Beams. The analysis of maximum load tests results shows that it presents a normal distribution, permitting the characteristic values calculation as the normal distribution theory specifies. The reliability of those elements was analyzed focusing on a timber bridge design, to estimate the failure probability in function of the load level.

Specialized genetic algorithm for transmission network expansion planning considering reliability

This paper presents a methodology to solve the transmission network expansion planning problem (TNEP) considering reliability and uncertainty in the demand. The proposed methodology provides an optimal expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately with an acceptable level of reliability and in an enviroment with uncertainness. The reliability criterion limits the expected value of the reliability index (LOLE - Loss Of Load Expectation) of the expanded system. The reliability is evaluated for the transmission system using an analytical technique based in enumeration. The mathematical model is solved, in a efficient way, using a specialized genetic algorithm of Chu-Beasley modified. Detailed results from an illustrative example are presented and discussed. © 2009 IEEE.

Network reconfiguration of distribution systems using metaheuristics and reliability measures

In an evermore competitive environment, power distribution companies need to continuously monitor and improve the reliability indices of their systems. The network reconfiguration (NR) of a distribution system is a technique that well adapts to this new deregulated environment for it allows improvement of system reliability indices without the onus involved in procuring new equipment. This paper presents a reliability-based NR methodology that uses metaheuristic techniques to search for the optimal network configuration. Three metaheuristics, i.e. Tabu Search, Evolution Strategy, and Differential Evolution, are tested using a Brazilian distribution network and the results are discussed. © 2009 IEEE.

The Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Clinician rating scale (NPI-C): Reliability and validity of a revised assessment of neuropsychiatric symptoms in dementia

Background: Neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) affect almost all patients with dementia and are a major focus of study and treatment. Accurate assessment of NPS through valid, sensitive and reliable measures is crucial. Although current NPS measures have many strengths, they also have some limitations (e.g. acquisition of data is limited to informants or caregivers as respondents, limited depth of items specific to moderate dementia). Therefore, we developed a revised version of the NPI, known as the NPI-C. The NPI-C includes expanded domains and items, and a clinician-rating methodology. This study evaluated the reliability and convergent validity of the NPI-C at ten international sites (seven languages). Methods: Face validity for 78 new items was obtained through a Delphi panel. A total of 128 dyads (caregivers/patients) from three severity categories of dementia (mild = 58, moderate = 49, severe = 21) were interviewed separately by two trained raters using two rating methods: the original NPI interview and a clinician-rated method. Rater 1 also administered four additional, established measures: the Apathy Evaluation Scale, the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, the Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Index, and the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia. Intraclass correlations were used to determine inter-rater reliability. Pearson correlations between the four relevant NPI-C domains and their corresponding outside measures were used for convergent validity. Results: Inter-rater reliability was strong for most items. Convergent validity was moderate (apathy and agitation) to strong (hallucinations and delusions; agitation and aberrant vocalization; and depression) for clinician ratings in NPI-C domains. Conclusion: Overall, the NPI-C shows promise as a versatile tool which can accurately measure NPS and which uses a uniform scale system to facilitate data comparisons across studies. Copyright © 2010 International Psychogeriatric Association.

Economic impact of disasters: evidence from DALA assessments by ECLAC in Latin America and the Caribbean

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A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

Lack of reliability of nanotechnology in the of free plasma DNA in samples of patients with prostate cancer

Background: Several studies seek biological markers that give diagnostic and degree of tumor development. The aim of this study was to validate the determination of plasma DNA using nanotechnology (Nanovue™-NV) in samples of 80 patients with prostate cancer. Methods. Blood samples of 80 patients of the Urology Ambulatory of Faculdade de Medicina do ABC with prostate cancer confirmed by anatomical-pathology criteria were analyzed. DNA extraction was performed using a GFX TM kit (Amersham Pharmacia Biotech, Inc, USA) following the adapted protocol. Plasma was subjected to centrifugation. Results: There was a big difference between the first and the second value obtained by NanoVue Only two samples had no differences between duplicates. Maximum difference between duplicates was 38 μg/mL. Average variation between 51 samples was 10.29 μg/mL, although 21 samples had differences above this average. No correlation was observed between pDNA obtained by traditional spectrophotometry and by nanotechnology. Conclusion: Determination of plasma DNA by nanotechnology was not reproducible. © 2013 Moreno et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Improving the grid operation and reliability cost of distribution systems with dispersed generation

In this work, a mathematical model to analyze the impact of the installation and operation of dispersed generation units in power distribution systems is proposed. The main focus is to determine the trade-off between the reliability and operational costs of distribution networks when the operation of isolated areas is allowed. In order to increase the system operator revenue, an optimal power flow makes use of the different energy prices offered by the dispersed generation connected to the grid. Simultaneously, the type and location of the protective devices initially installed on the protection system are reconfigured in order to minimize the interruption and expenditure of adjusting the protection system to conditions imposed by the operation of dispersed units. The interruption cost regards the unsupplied energy to customers in secure systems but affected by the normal tripping of protective devices. Therefore, the tripping of fuses, reclosers, and overcurrent relays aims to protect the system against both temporary and permanent fault types. Additionally, in order to reduce the average duration of the system interruption experienced by customers, the isolated operation of dispersed generation is allowed by installing directional overcurrent relays with synchronized reclose capabilities. A 135-bus real distribution system is used in order to show the advantages of using the mathematical model proposed. © 1969-2012 IEEE.