Diagnosing Causes of Water Scarcity in Complex Water Resources Systems and Identifying Risk Management Actions

From the water management perspective, water scarcity is an unacceptable risk of facing water shortages to serve water demands in the near future. Water scarcity may be temporary and related to drought conditions or other accidental situation, or may be permanent and due to deeper causes such as excessive demand growth, lack of infrastructure for water storage or transport, or constraints in water management. Diagnosing the causes of water scarcity in complex water resources systems is a precondition to adopt effective drought risk management actions. In this paper we present four indices which have been developed to evaluate water scarcity. We propose a methodology for interpretation of index values that can lead to conclusions about the reliability and vulnerability of systems to water scarcity, as well as to diagnose their possible causes and to propose solutions. The described methodology was applied to the Ebro river basin, identifying existing and expected problems and possible solutions. System diagnostics, based exclusively on the analysis of index values, were compared with the known reality as perceived by system managers, validating the conclusions in all cases

Real time passenger information systems and quality of bus services

One of the main problems in urban areas is the steady growth in car ownership and traffic levels. Therefore, the challenge of sustainability is focused on a shift of the demand for mobility from cars to collective means of transport. For this end, buses are a key element of the public transport systems. In this respect Real Time Passenger Information (RTPI) systems help citizens change their travel behaviour towards more sustainable transport modes. This paper provides an assessment methodology which evaluates how RTPI systems improve the quality of bus services in two European cities, Madrid and Bremerhaven. In the case of Madrid, bus punctuality has increased by 3%. Regarding the travellers perception, Madrid raised its quality of service by 6% while Bremerhaven increased by 13%. On the other hand, the users ́ perception of Public Transport (PT) image increased by 14%.

A scalable SIEM correlation engine and its application to the Olympic Games IT infrastructure

The security event correlation scalability has become a major concern for security analysts and IT administrators when considering complex IT infrastructures that need to handle gargantuan amounts of events or wide correlation window spans. The current correlation capabilities of Security Information and Event Management (SIEM), based on a single node in centralized servers, have proved to be insufficient to process large event streams. This paper introduces a step forward in the current state of the art to address the aforementioned problems. The proposed model takes into account the two main aspects of this ?eld: distributed correlation and query parallelization. We present a case study of a multiple-step attack on the Olympic Games IT infrastructure to illustrate the applicability of our approach.

LED bulb lamps technical specification and testing procedure for solar home systems.

With the consolidation of the new solid state lighting LEOs devices, te5t1n9 the compliance 01 lamps based on this technology lor Solar Home Systems (SHS) have been analyzed. The definition of the laboratory procedures to be used with final products 15 a necessary step in arder to be able to assure the quality of the lamps prior to be installed [1]. As well as with CFL technology. particular attention has been given to simplicity and technical affordability in arder to facilitate the implementation of the test with basie and simple laboratory too15 even on the same SHS electrification program locations. The block of test procedures has been applied to a set of 14 low-cost lamps. They apply to lamp resistance, reliability and performance under normal, extreme and abnormal operating conditions as a simple but complete quality meter tool 01 any LEO bulb.

Variable Speed Limits. Review and development of an aggregate indicator based on floating car data.

Changing factors (mainly traffic intensity and weather conditions) affecting road conditions require a suitable optimal speed at any time. To solve this problem, variable speed limit systems (VSL) ? as opposed to fixed limits ? have been developed in recent decades. This term has included a number of speed management systems, most notably dynamic speed limits (DSL). In order to avoid the indiscriminate use of both terms in the literature, this paper proposes a simple classification and offers a review of some experiences, how their effects are evaluated and their results This study also presents a key indicator, which measures the speed homogeneity and a methodology to obtain the data based on floating cars and GPS technology applying it to a case study on a section of the M30 urban motorway in Madrid (Spain).

Evaluation of the reliability of high concentrator GaAs solar cells by means of temperature accelerated aging tests

ABSTRACT Evaluating the reliability, warranty period, and power degradation of high concentration solar cells is crucial to introducing this new technology to the market. The reliability of high concentration GaAs solar cells, as measured in temperature accelerated life tests, is described in this paper. GaAs cells were tested under high thermal accelerated conditions that emulated operation under 700 or 1050 suns over a period exceeding 10 000 h. Progressive power degradation was observed, although no catastrophic failures occurred. An Arrhenius activation energy of 1.02 eV was determined from these tests. The solar cell reliability [R(t)] under working conditions of 65°C was evaluated for different failure limits (1–10% power loss). From this reliability function, the mean time to failure and the warranty time were evaluated. Solar cell temperature appeared to be the primary determinant of reliability and warranty period, with concentration being the secondary determinant. A 30-year warranty for these 1 mm2-sized GaAs cells (manufactured according to a light emitting diode-like approach) may be offered for both cell concentrations (700 and 1050 suns) if the solar cell is operated at a working temperature of 65°C.

In-field assessment of batteries and PV modules in a large photovoltaic rural electrification programme

Assuring the sustainability of quality in photovoltaic rural electrification programmes involves enhancing the reliability of the components of solar home systems as well as the characterization of the overall programme cost structure. Batteries and photovoltaic modules have a great impact on both the reliability and the cost assessment, the battery being the weakest component of the solar home system and consequently the most expensive element of the programme. The photovoltaic module, despite being the most reliable component, has a significant impact cost-wise on the initial investment, even at current market prices. This paper focuses on the in-field testing of both batteries and photovoltaic modules working under real operating conditions within a sample of 41 solar home systems belonging to a large photovoltaic rural electrification programme with more than 13,000 installed photovoltaic systems. Different reliability parameters such as lifetime have been evaluated, taking into account different factors, for example energy consumption rates, or the manufacturing quality of batteries. A degradation model has been proposed relating both loss of capacity and time of operation. The user e solar home system binomial is also analysed in order to understand the meaning of battery lifetime in rural electrification.

Lessons learned on home energy monitoring and management: Smartcity Málaga

The Smartcity Málaga project is one of Europe?s largest ecoefficient city initiatives. The project has implemented a field trial in 50 households to study the effects of energy monitoring and management technologies on the residential electricity consumption. This poster presents some lessons learned on energy consumption trends, smart clamps reliability and the suitability of power contracted by users, obtained after six months of data analysis.

Code assessment and modelling for Design Basis Accident Analysis of the European sodium fast reactor design. Part I: System description, modelling and benchmarking

The new reactor concepts proposed in the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) are conceived to improve the use of natural resources, reduce the amount of high-level radioactive waste and excel in their reliability and safe operation. Among these novel designs sodium fast reactors (SFRs) stand out due to their technological feasibility as demonstrated in several countries during the last decades. As part of the contribution of EURATOM to GIF the CP-ESFR is a collaborative project with the objective, among others, to perform extensive analysis on safety issues involving renewed SFR demonstrator designs. The verification of computational tools able to simulate the plant behaviour under postulated accidental conditions by code-to-code comparison was identified as a key point to ensure reactor safety. In this line, several organizations employed coupled neutronic and thermal-hydraulic system codes able to simulate complex and specific phenomena involving multi-physics studies adapted to this particular fast reactor technology. In the “Introduction” of this paper the framework of this study is discussed, the second section describes the envisaged plant design and the commonly agreed upon modelling guidelines. The third section presents a comparative analysis of the calculations performed by each organisation applying their models and codes to a common agreed transient with the objective to harmonize the models as well as validating the implementation of all relevant physical phenomena in the different system codes.

Marketing and Sales organization in a “Brand-Focused Professional” multinational

This article tests a multidimensional model of the marketing and sales organizational interface, based on a previous one tested for European companies (Homburg et al., 2008), in a specific taxonomical configuration: a brand focused professional multinational, in three successful Latin American branches. Factor reliability and hypotheses were studied through a confirmatory factor analysis. Results show the existence of a positive relationship between formalization, joint planning, teamwork, information sharing, trust and interface quality. Interface quality and business performance show also a positive relationship. This empirical study contributes to the knowledge of the organizational enhancement of interactions in emerging markets

Proposal of a trust and reputation model to provide recommendation in open quality oriented environments

El auge y penetración de las nuevas tecnologías junto con la llamada Web Social están cambiando la forma en la que accedemos a la medicina. Cada vez más pacientes y profesionales de la medicina están creando y consumiendo recursos digitales de contenido clínico a través de Internet, surgiendo el problema de cómo asegurar la fiabilidad de estos recursos. Además, un nuevo concepto está apareciendo, el de pervasive healthcare o sanidad ubicua, motivado por pacientes que demandan un acceso a los servicios sanitarios en todo momento y en todo lugar. Este nuevo escenario lleva aparejado un problema de confianza en los proveedores de servicios sanitarios. Las plataformas de eLearning se están erigiendo como paradigma de esta nueva Medicina 2.0 ya que proveen un servicio abierto a la vez que controlado/supervisado a recursos digitales, y facilitan las interacciones y consultas entre usuarios, suponiendo una buena aproximación para esta sanidad ubicua. En estos entornos los problemas de fiabilidad y confianza pueden ser solventados mediante la implementación de mecanismos de recomendación de recursos y personas de manera confiable. Tradicionalmente las plataformas de eLearning ya cuentan con mecanismos de recomendación, si bien están más enfocados a la recomendación de recursos. Para la recomendación de usuarios es necesario acudir a mecanismos más elaborados como son los sistemas de confianza y reputación (trust and reputation) En ambos casos, tanto la recomendación de recursos como el cálculo de la reputación de los usuarios se realiza teniendo en cuenta criterios principalmente subjetivos como son las opiniones de los usuarios. En esta tesis doctoral proponemos un nuevo modelo de confianza y reputación que combina evaluaciones automáticas de los recursos digitales en una plataforma de eLearning, con las opiniones vertidas por los usuarios como resultado de las interacciones con otros usuarios o después de consumir un recurso. El enfoque seguido presenta la novedad de la combinación de una parte objetiva con otra subjetiva, persiguiendo mitigar el efecto de posibles castigos subjetivos por parte de usuarios malintencionados, a la vez que enriquecer las evaluaciones objetivas con información adicional acerca de la capacidad pedagógica del recurso o de la persona. El resultado son recomendaciones siempre adaptadas a los requisitos de los usuarios, y de la máxima calidad tanto técnica como educativa. Esta nueva aproximación requiere una nueva herramienta para su validación in-silico, al no existir ninguna aplicación que permita la simulación de plataformas de eLearning con mecanismos de recomendación de recursos y personas, donde además los recursos sean evaluados objetivamente. Este trabajo de investigación propone pues una nueva herramienta, basada en el paradigma de programación orientada a agentes inteligentes para el modelado de comportamientos complejos de usuarios en plataformas de eLearning. Además, la herramienta permite también la simulación del funcionamiento de este tipo de entornos dedicados al intercambio de conocimiento. La evaluación del trabajo propuesto en este documento de tesis se ha realizado de manera iterativa a lo largo de diferentes escenarios en los que se ha situado al sistema frente a una amplia gama de comportamientos de usuarios. Se ha comparado el rendimiento del modelo de confianza y reputación propuesto frente a dos modos de recomendación tradicionales: a) utilizando sólo las opiniones subjetivas de los usuarios para el cálculo de la reputación y por extensión la recomendación; y b) teniendo en cuenta sólo la calidad objetiva del recurso sin hacer ningún cálculo de reputación. Los resultados obtenidos nos permiten afirmar que el modelo desarrollado mejora la recomendación ofrecida por las aproximaciones tradicionales, mostrando una mayor flexibilidad y capacidad de adaptación a diferentes situaciones. Además, el modelo propuesto es capaz de asegurar la recomendación de nuevos usuarios entrando al sistema frente a la nula recomendación para estos usuarios presentada por el modo de recomendación predominante en otras plataformas que basan la recomendación sólo en las opiniones de otros usuarios. Por último, el paradigma de agentes inteligentes ha probado su valía a la hora de modelar plataformas virtuales complejas orientadas al intercambio de conocimiento, especialmente a la hora de modelar y simular el comportamiento de los usuarios de estos entornos. La herramienta de simulación desarrollada ha permitido la evaluación del modelo de confianza y reputación propuesto en esta tesis en una amplia gama de situaciones diferentes. ABSTRACT Internet is changing everything, and this revolution is especially present in traditionally offline spaces such as medicine. In recent years health consumers and health service providers are actively creating and consuming Web contents stimulated by the emergence of the Social Web. Reliability stands out as the main concern when accessing the overwhelming amount of information available online. Along with this new way of accessing the medicine, new concepts like ubiquitous or pervasive healthcare are appearing. Trustworthiness assessment is gaining relevance: open health provisioning systems require mechanisms that help evaluating individuals’ reputation in pursuit of introducing safety to these open and dynamic environments. Technical Enhanced Learning (TEL) -commonly known as eLearning- platforms arise as a paradigm of this Medicine 2.0. They provide an open while controlled/supervised access to resources generated and shared by users, enhancing what it is being called informal learning. TEL systems also facilitate direct interactions amongst users for consultation, resulting in a good approach to ubiquitous healthcare. The aforementioned reliability and trustworthiness problems can be faced by the implementation of mechanisms for the trusted recommendation of both resources and healthcare services providers. Traditionally, eLearning platforms already integrate recommendation mechanisms, although this recommendations are basically focused on providing an ordered classifications of resources. For users’ recommendation, the implementation of trust and reputation systems appears as the best solution. Nevertheless, both approaches base the recommendation on the information from the subjective opinions of other users of the platform regarding the resources or the users. In this PhD work a novel approach is presented for the recommendation of both resources and users within open environments focused on knowledge exchange, as it is the case of TEL systems for ubiquitous healthcare. The proposed solution adds the objective evaluation of the resources to the traditional subjective personal opinions to estimate the reputation of the resources and of the users of the system. This combined measure, along with the reliability of that calculation, is used to provide trusted recommendations. The integration of opinions and evaluations, subjective and objective, allows the model to defend itself against misbehaviours. Furthermore, it also allows ‘colouring’ cold evaluation values by providing additional quality information such as the educational capacities of a digital resource in an eLearning system. As a result, the recommendations are always adapted to user requirements, and of the maximum technical and educational quality. To our knowledge, the combination of objective assessments and subjective opinions to provide recommendation has not been considered before in the literature. Therefore, for the evaluation of the trust and reputation model defined in this PhD thesis, a new simulation tool will be developed following the agent-oriented programming paradigm. The multi-agent approach allows an easy modelling of independent and proactive behaviours for the simulation of users of the system, conforming a faithful resemblance of real users of TEL platforms. For the evaluation of the proposed work, an iterative approach have been followed, testing the performance of the trust and reputation model while providing recommendation in a varied range of scenarios. A comparison with two traditional recommendation mechanisms was performed: a) using only users’ past opinions about a resource and/or other users; and b) not using any reputation assessment and providing the recommendation considering directly the objective quality of the resources. The results show that the developed model improves traditional approaches at providing recommendations in Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL) platforms, presenting a higher adaptability to different situations, whereas traditional approaches only have good results under favourable conditions. Furthermore the promotion period mechanism implemented successfully helps new users in the system to be recommended for direct interactions as well as the resources created by them. On the contrary OnlyOpinions fails completely and new users are never recommended, while traditional approaches only work partially. Finally, the agent-oriented programming (AOP) paradigm has proven its validity at modelling users’ behaviours in TEL platforms. Intelligent software agents’ characteristics matched the main requirements of the simulation tool. The proactivity, sociability and adaptability of the developed agents allowed reproducing real users’ actions and attitudes through the diverse situations defined in the evaluation framework. The result were independent users, accessing to different resources and communicating amongst them to fulfil their needs, basing these interactions on the recommendations provided by the reputation engine.

Evaluation of an integrated system for classification, assessment and comparison of services for long-term care in Europe: the eDESDE-LTC study

Background: The harmonization of European health systems brings with it a need for tools to allow the standardized collection of information about medical care. A common coding system and standards for the description of services are needed to allow local data to be incorporated into evidence-informed policy, and to permit equity and mobility to be assessed. The aim of this project has been to design such a classification and a related tool for the coding of services for Long Term Care (DESDE-LTC), based on the European Service Mapping Schedule (ESMS). Methods: The development of DESDE-LTC followed an iterative process using nominal groups in 6 European countries. 54 researchers and stakeholders in health and social services contributed to this process. In order to classify services, we use the minimal organization unit or “Basic Stable Input of Care” (BSIC), coded by its principal function or “Main Type of Care” (MTC). The evaluation of the tool included an analysis of feasibility, consistency, ontology, inter-rater reliability, Boolean Factor Analysis, and a preliminary impact analysis (screening, scoping and appraisal). Results: DESDE-LTC includes an alpha-numerical coding system, a glossary and an assessment instrument for mapping and counting LTC. It shows high feasibility, consistency, inter-rater reliability and face, content and construct validity. DESDE-LTC is ontologically consistent. It is regarded by experts as useful and relevant for evidence-informed decision making. Conclusion: DESDE-LTC contributes to establishing a common terminology, taxonomy and coding of LTC services in a European context, and a standard procedure for data collection and international comparison.

Tracing the Development of Athletes Using Retrospective Interview Methods: A Proposed Interview and Validation Procedure for Reported Information

A new interview procedure is proposed for collecting valid information on the acquisition of high-level performance in sport. The procedure elicits verifiable information on the development of athletes' achievements in their primary sport, as well as factors that might influence performance, including involvement in other sporting activities, injuries, physical growth and quality of training resources. Interviewed athletes also describe their engagement in specific training and other relevant activities during each year of their development as well as how they experienced each type of activity. The collected information is then examined to identify those aspects of the athletes' recall of their development that meet criteria of reliability and validity. Recommendations to coaches and scientists are discussed for how retrospective interviews can uncover aspects of development that distinguish elite from less accomplished athletes.

De-authoring or Authoring?: A plunge into the question of authorship and language in J.M. Coetzee's Foe

J. M. Coetzee's Foe is not only a post-colonial novel, but it is also a re-writing of a classic, and its main themes are language, authorship, power and identity. Moreover, Foe is narrated by a woman, while written by a male, Nobel prize winning South African author. The aim of my tesina is to focus on the question of authorship and the role of language in Foe. Without any claim to be exhaustive, in the first section I will examine some selected extracts of Coetzee's book, in order to provide an analysis of the novel. These quotations will mainly be its metalinguistic parts and will be analysed in the “theory” sections of my work, relying on literary theory and on previous works on the novel. Among others, I will cover themes such as the relationship between speech and writing, the connection between writing, history, and memory, the role of silence and alternative ways of communicating and the relationship between literary authority and truth. These arguments will be the foundation for my second section, in which I will attempt to shed a light on the importance of the novel from a linguistic point of view, but always keeping an eye on the implication that this has on authorship. While it is true that it is less politically-permeated than Coetzee's previous works, Foe is above all a “journey of discovery” in the world of language and authorship. In fact, it becomes a warning for any person immersed in the ocean of language since, while everyone naturally tends to trust speech and writing as the only medium through which one can get closer to the truth, authority never is a synonym of reliability, and language is a system of communication behind which structures of power, misconceptions, lies, and treacherous tides easily hide.

Operations and Planning in Sustainable Power Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06