Optimum Design for External Seismic Stability of Geosynthetic Reinforced Soil Walls: Reliability Based Approach

In this paper, an analytical study considering the effect of uncertainties in the seismic analysis of geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) walls is presented. Using limit equilibrium method and assuming sliding wedge failure mechanism, analysis is conducted to evaluate the external stability of GRS walls when subjected to earthquake loads. Target reliability based approach is used to estimate the probability of failure in three modes of failure, viz., sliding, bearing, and eccentricity failure. The properties of reinforced backfill, retained backfill, foundation soil, and geosynthetic reinforcement are treated as random variables. In addition, the uncertainties associated with horizontal seismic acceleration and surcharge load acting on the wall are considered. The optimum length of reinforcement needed to maintain the stability against three modes of failure by targeting various component and system reliability indices is obtained. Studies have also been made to study the influence of various parameters on the seismic stability in three failure modes. The results are compared with those given by first-order second moment method and Monte Carlo simulation methods. In the illustrative example, external stability of the two walls, Gould and Valencia walls, subjected to Northridge earthquake is reexamined.

Optimum Design for External Seismic Stability of Geosynthetic Reinforced Soil Walls: Reliability Based Approach

In this paper, an analytical study considering the effect of uncertainties in the seismic analysis of geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) walls is presented. Using limit equilibrium method and assuming sliding wedge failure mechanism, analysis is conducted to evaluate the external stability of GRS walls when subjected to earthquake loads. Target reliability based approach is used to estimate the probability of failure in three modes of failure, viz., sliding, bearing, and eccentricity failure. The properties of reinforced backfill, retained backfill, foundation soil, and geosynthetic reinforcement are treated as random variables. In addition, the uncertainties associated with horizontal seismic acceleration and surcharge load acting on the wall are considered. The optimum length of reinforcement needed to maintain the stability against three modes of failure by targeting various component and system reliability indices is obtained. Studies have also been made to study the influence of various parameters on the seismic stability in three failure modes. The results are compared with those given by first-order second moment method and Monte Carlo simulation methods. In the illustrative example, external stability of the two walls, Gould and Valencia walls, subjected to Northridge earthquake is reexamined.

Relative ability of ovine follicle stimulating hormone and its beta-subunit to generate antibodies having bioneutralization potential in nonhuman primates

The relative ability of ovine follicle stimulating hormone and its beta-subunit, two potential candidates for male contraceptive vaccine, to generate antibodies in monkeys capable of bioneutralizing follicle stimulating hormone was assessed using in vitro model systems. Antiserum against native ovine follicle stimulating hormone was found to be highly specific to the intact form with no cross-reactivity with either of the two subunits while the antiserum against beta-subunit of follicle stimulating hormone could bind to the beta-subunit in its free form as well as when it is combined with alpha-subunit to form the intact hormone. Both antisera could block the binding of the hormone to the receptor if the hormone was preincubated with the antibody. However, the follicle stimulating hormone beta-antisera could only inhibit the binding of the hormone partially (33 percent inhibition) if the antibody and receptor were mixed prior to the addition of the hormone, while antisera to the native follicle stimulating hormone could block the binding completely (100 percent inhibition) in the same experiment. Similarly antisera to the native follicle stimulating hormone was significantly effective in blocking (100 percent) response to follicle stimulating hormone but not the beta-subunit antisera (0 percent) as checked using an in vitro granulosa cell system. Thus the probability of obtaining antibodies of greater bioneutralization potential is much higher if intact hormone is used as an antigen rather than its beta-subunit as a vaccine.

Performance analysis of a slotted-ALOHA protocol on a capture channel with fading

We consider the slotted ALOHA protocol on a channel with a capture effect. There are M probability of a successful reception of a packet is q(i). This model contains the CDMA protocols as special cases. We obtain sufficient rate conditions, which are close to necessary for stability of the system, when the arrival streams are stationary ergodic. Under the same rate conditions, for general regenerative arrival streams, we obtain the rates of convergence to stationarity, finiteness of stationary moments and various functional limit theorems. Our arrival streams contain all the traffic models suggested in the recent literature, including the ones which display long range dependence. We also obtain bounds on the stationary moments of waiting times which can be tight under realistic conditions. Finally, we obtain several results on the transient performance of the system, e.g., first time to overflow and the limits of the overflow process. We also extend the above results to the case of a capture channel exhibiting Markov modulated fading. Most of our results and proofs will be shown to hold also for the slotted ALOHA protocol without capture.

Adsorption of oxygen and reactivity with HCl on a barium-doped lead surface

X.p.s. studies on the adsorption of oxygen on a barium-covered Pb surface have shown the presence of two distinct types of oxygen species: oxidic, O2–, and the peroxo-like O2–2(ads), and the surface has been identified as a composite of PbO and BaPbO3. On a barium pre-covered surface, the sticking probability of oxygen on Pb is increased. The O2–(ads) species preferentially reacts with HCl forming PbCl2(ads)via proton abstraction, whereas O2–2(ads) is not reactive with HCl vapour. On the Pb surface, the PbCl2 overlayer reacts with excess HCl, forming a volatile compound believed to be Pb(ClHCl)2, while in the presence of coadsorbed barium, the stability of PbCl2 is increased and the activation energy for the reaction: PbCl2(ads)+ 2HCl(g) Pb(ClHCl)2(g) is increased. Stronger intermetallic interaction is suggested to be the reason for higher PbCl2 stability.

Factors affecting partitioning of private forest holdings in Finland.

Questions of the small size of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) holdings in Finland are considered and factors affecting their partitioning are analyzed. This work arises out of Finnish forest policy statements in which the small average size of holdings has been seen to have a negative influence on the economics of forestry. A survey of the literature indicates that the size of holdings is an important factor determining the costs of logging and silvicultural operations, while its influence on the timber supply is slight. The empirical data are based on a sample of 314 holdings collected by interviewing forest owners in the years 1980-86. In 1990-91 the same holdings were resurveyed by means of a postal inquiry and partly by interviewing forest owners. The principal objective in compiling the data is to assist in quantifying ownership factors that influence partitioning among different kinds of NIPF holdings. Thus the mechanism of partitioning were described and a maximum likelihood logistic regression model was constructed using seven independent holding and ownership variables. One out of four holdings had undergone partitioning in conjunction with a change in ownership, one fifth among family owned holdings and nearly a half among jointly owned holdings. The results of the logistic regression model indicate, for instance, that the odds on partitioning is about three times greater for jointly owned holdings than for family owned ones. Also, the probabilities of partitioning were estimated and the impact of independent dichotomous variables on the probability of partitioning ranged between 0.02 and 0.10. The low value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic indicates a good fit of the model and the rate of correct classification was estimated to be 88 per cent with a cutoff point of 0.5. The average size of holdings undergoing ownership changes decreased from 29.9 ha to 28.7 ha over the approximate interval 1983-90. In addition, the transition probability matrix showed that the trends towards smaller size categories mostly involved in the small size categories, less than 20 ha. The results of the study can be used in considering the effects of the small size of holdings for forestry and if the purpose is to influence partitioning through forest or rural policy.

Generating artificial chromosomes with probability control in genetic algorithm for machine scheduling problems

In this paper, a novel genetic algorithm is developed by generating artificial chromosomes with probability control to solve the machine scheduling problems. Generating artificial chromosomes for Genetic Algorithm (ACGA) is closely related to Evolutionary Algorithms Based on Probabilistic Models (EAPM). The artificial chromosomes are generated by a probability model that extracts the gene information from current population. ACGA is considered as a hybrid algorithm because both the conventional genetic operators and a probability model are integrated. The ACGA proposed in this paper, further employs the ``evaporation concept'' applied in Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) to solve the permutation flowshop problem. The ``evaporation concept'' is used to reduce the effect of past experience and to explore new alternative solutions. In this paper, we propose three different methods for the probability of evaporation. This probability of evaporation is applied as soon as a job is assigned to a position in the permutation flowshop problem. Experimental results show that our ACGA with the evaporation concept gives better performance than some algorithms in the literature.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effectiveness of infrainguinal percutaneous transluminal angioplasty in the treatment of critical limb ischaemia

Critical chronic lower limb ischaemia (CLI) is the most severe form of peripheral arterial disease. Even though the treatment of CLI has evolved during the last decade, CLI is still associated with considerable morbidity, mortality and a decreased quality of life, in addition to a large financial impact on society. ---- Bypass surgery has traditionally been considered the approach of choice to treat CLI patients in order to avoid amputation. However, there are increasing data on the efficacy of endovascular revascularization procedures, such as percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA), to achieve good leg salvage rates as well. Data gathered on all the 2,054 CLI patients revascularized at the Helsinki University Central Hospital between 2000 and 2007 were retrospectively analyzed. This patient cohort was used to compare the results of infrainguinal PTA and bypass surgery as well as to investigate predictors of failure after PTA. This study showed that infrainguinal PTA and bypass surgery yielded rather similar results in terms of survival, amputation-free survival and freedom from any re-intervention. When the femoropoliteal segment was treated, leg salvage was significantly better in the bypass surgery group, whereas no significant difference was observed between the two treatment methods when the revascularization extended to the infrapopliteal segment. PTA resulted in a significantly lower freedom from surgical re-interventions when compared to surgical revascularization. In this study the most important predictors of poor outcome after PTA for CLI were cardiac morbidity, nonambulatory status upon hospital arrival, and gangrene as a manifestation of CLI. Thus, when feasible, PTA seems to be a valid alternative for bypass surgery in the treatment of CLI provided that active redo-surgery is utilized. The optimal revascularization strategy should always be sought for each CLI patient individually considering the clinical state of the leg, the occlusive lesions to be treated, co-morbidities, life-expectancy, and the availability of a suitable vein for bypass.

Transposable element-medicated evolution of sex: A population genetic model

For a population made up of individuals capable of sexual as well as asexual modes of reproduction, conditions for the spread of a transposable element are explored using a one-locus, two-haplotype model. The analysis is then extended to include the possibility that the transposable element can modulate the probability of sexual reproduction, thus casting Hickey’s (1982,Genetics 101: 519–531) suggestion in a population genetics framework. The model explicitly includes the cost of sexual reproduction, fitness disadvantage to the transposable element, probability of transposition, and the predisposition for sexual reproduction in the presence and absence of the transposable element. The model predicts several kinds of outcome, including initial frequency dependence and stable polymorphism. More importantly, it is seen that for a wide range of parameter values, the transposable element can go to fixation. Therefore it is able to convert the population from a predominantly asexual to a predominantly sexual mode of reproduction. Viewed in conjunction with recent results implicating short stretches of apparently non-coding DNA in sex determination (McCoubreyet al. 1988,Science 242: 1146–1151), the model hints at the important role this mechanism could have played in the evolution of sexuality.

An ensemble of B-DNA dinucleotide geometries lead to characteristic nucleosomal DNA structure and provide plasticity required for gene expression

Background: A nucleosome is the fundamental repeating unit of the eukaryotic chromosome. It has been shown that the positioning of a majority of nucleosomes is primarily controlled by factors other than the intrinsic preference of the DNA sequence. One of the key questions in this context is the role, if any, that can be played by the variability of nucleosomal DNA structure. Results: In this study, we have addressed this question by analysing the variability at the dinucleotide and trinucleotide as well as longer length scales in a dataset of nucleosome X-ray crystal structures. We observe that the nucleosome structure displays remarkable local level structural versatility within the B-DNA family. The nucleosomal DNA also incorporates a large number of kinks. Conclusions: Based on our results, we propose that the local and global level versatility of B-DNA structure may be a significant factor modulating the formation of nucleosomes in the vicinity of high-plasticity genes, and in varying the probability of binding by regulatory proteins. Hence, these factors should be incorporated in the prediction algorithms and there may not be a unique `template' for predicting putative nucleosome sequences. In addition, the multimodal distribution of dinucleotide parameters for some steps and the presence of a large number of kinks in the nucleosomal DNA structure indicate that the linear elastic model, used by several algorithms to predict the energetic cost of nucleosome formation, may lead to incorrect results.

Effect of magnetic field on the binding energy of a hydrogenic donor in a vertical bar z vertical bar(2/3) quantum well

We have calculated the binding energy of a hydrogenic donor in a quantum well with potential shape proportional to \z\(2/3) as a function of the width of the quantum well and the barrier height under an applied uniform magnetic field along the a axis. As the well width decreases, the binding energy increases initially up to a critical well width (which is nearly the same for all magnetic fields) at which there is a turnover. The results are qualitatively similar to those of a hydrogenic donor in a rectangular well. We have also calculated [rho(2)](1/2) and [z(2)](1/2) for the donor electron. [rho(2)](1/2) is found to be strongly dependent on the magnetic field for a given well width and weakly dependent on the well width and the barrier height, for a given value of magnetic field [z(2)](1/2) is weakly dependent on the applied magnetic field. The probability of finding the donor electron inside the well shows a rapid decrease as the well width is reduced at nearly the well width at which the binding energy shows a maximum.

Photochemical intramolecular gamma-hydrogen abstraction in a ketone and an alkene and the role of tunneling of hydrogen

Intramolecular gamma-hydrogen abstraction reactions were examined in pentane-2-one and 2-methyl-1-pentene in their lowest triplet states using the AM1 semi-empirical molecular orbital method with the complete geometry optimization in the unrestricted Hartree-Fock frame. The results reveal that the oxygen atom of the carbonyl group and the end carbon atom of the olefinic bond acquire high free valence and spin density indices in their respective lowest triplet states, leading to abstraction of hydrogen from the gamma-position relative to the carbonyl and olefinic bonds. The theoretical energy profiles fit with a polynomial and the probability of tunneling of hydrogen was estimated by the WKB (Wentzel, Kramer and Brillouin) method. The results, after thermal averaging of the rate constants, reveal that tunneling of hydrogen is significant at room temperature.

Intranasally delivered microdoses of bromocriptine (BCR) effectively reduced serum prolactin levels in hyperprolactinemic patients

It is well known that hyperprolactinaemia in the human leads to infertility. The therapy of choice in India has been the administration of bromocriptine (BCR) as tablets, This mode of administration is generally accompanied by undesirable side-effects such as giddiness, nausea, vomiting and postural hypotension, We demonstrate here the efficacy of microdoses of BCR administered intranasally (IN) to hyperprolactinaemic patients (n = 6) in reducing significantly the elevated serum prolactin levels and maintain them within the normal range, The IN mode of BCR administration, in addition to reducing the effective dose of the drug by 4-20-fold, results in little or no side-effects otherwise associated with oral therapy.

Stochastic Aeroelastic Analysis of Composite Helicopter Rotor

The effect of uncertainty in composite material properties on the aeroelastic response, vibratory loads, and stability of a hingeless helicopter rotor is investigated. The uncertainty impact on rotating natural frequencies of the blade is studied with Monte Carlo simulations and first-order reliability methods. The stochastic aeroelastic analyses in hover and forward flight are carried out with Monte Carlo simulations. The flap, lag, and torsion responses show considerable scatter from their baseline values, and the uncertainty impact varies with the azimuth angle. Furthermore, the blade response shows finite probability of resonance-type conditions caused by modal frequencies approaching multiples of the rotor speed. The 4/rev vibratory forces show large deviations from their baseline values. The lag mode damping shows considerable scatter due to uncertain material properties with an almost 40% probability of instability in hover.