Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study - time trends and predictors of survival: a cohort study

Background Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004–2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these. Methods Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient’s last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient’s death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient’s last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin’s lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004–2010 in this large observational cohort. Conclusions The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC.

Curtailing the voices and the need for predictors

Comment on Transcranial magnetic stimulation of Wernicke's and Right homologous sites to curtail "voices": a randomized trial. [Biol Psychiatry. 2013]

Changes in situational and dispositional factors as predictors of job satisfaction

Arguably, job satisfaction is one of the most important variables with regard to work. When explaining job satisfaction, research usually focuses on predictor variables in terms of levels but neglects growth rates. Therefore it remains unclear how potential predictors evolve over time and how their development affects job satisfaction. Using multivariate latent growth modeling in a study with 1145 young workers over five years, we analyzed how well job satisfaction is predicted a) by levels of situational (i.e., job control) and dispositional (i.e., Core Self-Evaluations (CSE)) factors and b) by growth per year of these predictors. Results showed both intercepts and slopes to be related to each other, suggesting a joint growth of job control and CSE during early careers. Job satisfaction after five years was best predicted by the slopes of job control (β = .31, p < .001) and CSE (β = .34, p < .01). These findings provide further longitudinal evidence for the role of situational as well as dispositional factors for predicting job satisfaction. In addition, growth rates per year were better predictors than initial levels. Furthermore, a lack of change in job control or CSE went along with a drop in job satisfaction, implying that young workers need to perceive things to be improving in order to increase, or at least maintain, their level of job satisfaction. In terms of theory, the relative importance of levels versus changes deserves more attention. In terms of practical implications, our results suggest a double emphasis on job design (i.e., granting sufficient, and increasing, control) and on personal development (e.g., through training) so that people experience a match between both. Finally, negative associations between initial levels and growth rates suggest that people are quite successful in achieving a reasonable fit between their job characteristics and their needs and goals.

Predictors of temporary and permanent work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results of the swiss inflammatory bowel disease cohort study

BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease can decrease the quality of life and induce work disability. We sought to (1) identify and quantify the predictors of disease-specific work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and (2) assess the suitability of using cross-sectional data to predict future outcomes, using the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study data. METHODS A total of 1187 patients were enrolled and followed up for an average of 13 months. Predictors included patient and disease characteristics and drug utilization. Potential predictors were identified through an expert panel and published literature. We estimated adjusted effect estimates with 95% confidence intervals using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regression. RESULTS Overall, 699 (58.9%) experienced Crohn's disease and 488 (41.1%) had ulcerative colitis. Most important predictors for temporary work disability in patients with Crohn's disease included gender, disease duration, disease activity, C-reactive protein level, smoking, depressive symptoms, fistulas, extraintestinal manifestations, and the use of immunosuppressants/steroids. Temporary work disability in patients with ulcerative colitis was associated with age, disease duration, disease activity, and the use of steroids/antibiotics. In all patients, disease activity emerged as the only predictor of permanent work disability. Comparing data at enrollment versus follow-up yielded substantial differences regarding disability and predictors, with follow-up data showing greater predictor effects. CONCLUSIONS We identified predictors of work disability in patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Our findings can help in forecasting these disease courses and guide the choice of appropriate measures to prevent adverse outcomes. Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal data showed that the conduction of cohort studies is inevitable for the examination of disability.

Predictors for hospitalization and outpatient visits in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. RESULTS For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. CONCLUSION Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

Social skills as predictors of communication, performance and quality of collaboration in project-based learning

The assumption that social skills are necessary ingredients of collaborative learning is well established but rarely empirically tested. In addition, most theories on collaborative learning focus on social skills only at the personal level, while the social skill configurations within a learning group might be of equal importance. Using the integrative framework, this study investigates which social skills at the personal level and at the group level are predictive of task-related e-mail communication, satisfaction with performance and perceived quality of collaboration. Data collection took place in a technology-enhanced long-term project-based learning setting for pre-service teachers. For data collection, two questionnaires were used, one at the beginning and one at the end of the learning cycle which lasted 3 months. During the project phase, the e-mail communication between group members was captured as well. The investigation of 60 project groups (N = 155 for the questionnaires; group size: two or three students) and 33 groups for the e-mail communication (N = 83) revealed that personal social skills played only a minor role compared to group level configurations of social skills in predicting satisfaction with performance, perceived quality of collaboration and communication behaviour. Members from groups that showed a high and/or homogeneous configuration of specific social skills (e.g., cooperation/compromising, leadership) usually were more satisfied and saw their group as more efficient than members from groups with a low and/or heterogeneous configuration of skills.

Illusory predictors: Generalizability of findings in cocaine treatment retention research.

Treatment retention is of paramount importance in cocaine treatment research as treatment completion rates are often 50% or less. Failure to retain cocaine patients in treatment has both significant research and clinical implications. In this paper we qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrate the inconsistency found across analyses of retention predictors in order to highlight the problem. First, a qualitative review of the published literature was undertaken to identify the frequency of predictors studied and their relations to treatment retention. Second, an empirical demonstration of predictor stability was conducted by testing a common set of variables across three similar 12-week cocaine clinical trials conducted by the same investigators in the same research clinic within a five-year period. Results of the literature review indicated inconsistently selected variables of convenience, widely varying statistical procedures, and discrepant findings of significance. Further, quantitative analyses resulted in discrepancies in variables identified as significant predictors of retention among the three studies. Potential sources of heterogeneity affecting the consistency of findings across studies and recommendations to improve the validity and generalizability of predictor findings in future studies are proposed.

Intensive Family Preservation in Children's Mental Health: Predictors of Placement

This article examines the predictors of placement following IFPSfor a sample of child mental health service recipients and their families. Risk and protective factors vary depending on the time frame under consideration. Immediately following service, children 's level of Social/Legal functioning, a previous group home placement, and the presence of mental health problems for other family members increase risk of placement, while the number of follow-up services serves to lessen risk. Three to six months after service, the presence of a child behavior presenting problem and a projected placement in foster care serve as protective factors, while two service targets, alcohol monitoring and time management, serve to increase risk. Appropriate use of results for program design and for structuring access to services is discussed.

What are predictors for patients' quality of life after pelvic ring fractures?

Background Our knowledge of factors influencing mortality of patients with pelvic ring injuries and the impact of associated injuries is currently based on limited information. Questions/purposes Weidentified the (1) causes and time of death, (2) demography, and (3) pattern and severity of injuries in patients with pelvic ring fractures who did not survive. Methods We prospectively collected data on 5340 patients listed in the German Pelvic Trauma Registry between April 30, 2004 and July 29, 2011; 3034 of 5340 (57%) patientswere female. Demographic data and parameters indicating the type and severity of injury were recorded for patients who died in hospital (nonsurvivors) and compared with data of patients who survived (survivors). The median followup was 13 days (range, 0–1117 days). Results A total of 238 (4%) patients died a median of 2 days after trauma. The main cause of death was massive bleeding (34%), predominantly from the pelvic region (62% of all patients who died because of massive bleeding). Fifty six percent of nonsurvivors and 43% of survivors were male. Nonsurvivors were characterized by a higher incidence of complex pelvic injuries (32% versus 8%), less isolated pelvic ring fractures (13% versus 49%), lower initial blood hemoglobin concentration (6.7 ± 2.9 versus 9.8 ± 3.0 g/dL) and systolic arterial blood pressure (77 ± 27 versus 106 ± 24 mmHg), and higher injury severity score (ISS) (35 ± 16 versus 15 ± 12). Conclusion Patients with pelvic fractures who did not survive were characterized by male gender, severe multiple trauma, and major hemorrhage.

Social and cognitive predictors of fruit and vegetable intake among adolescents: The context of changes in body weight

Two studies investigated differences in the relationships between adolescents' fruit and vegetable intake (FVI) and the predictors specified in the Health Action Process Approach and Social-Cognitive Theory. Retrospective (Study 1; N = 502) and prospective (Study 2; N = 668) designs were applied. Among adolescents with overweight/obesity, intention was cross-sectionally associated with FVI (Study 1); no social or cognitive predictors explained FVI at 14-month follow-up (Study 2). The planning - FVI and self-efficacy - FVI relationships were stronger among adolescents who reduced their body weight to normal, compared to effects observed among those who maintained their body weight (Studies 1 and 2).

Recurrent stroke predictors differ in medically treated patients with pathogenic vs other PFOs

OBJECTIVE: To examine predictors of stroke recurrence in patients with a high vs a low likelihood of having an incidental patent foramen ovale (PFO) as defined by the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score.METHODS: Patients in the RoPE database with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and PFO were classified as having a probable PFO-related stroke (RoPE score of >6, n = 647) and others (RoPE score of predictors, effects were significantly different in the 2 RoPE score categories. For the low RoPE score group, but not the high RoPE score group, older age and antiplatelet (vs warfarin) treatment predicted recurrence. Conversely, echocardiographic features (septal hypermobility and a small shunt) and a prior (clinical) stroke/TIA were significant predictors in the high but not low RoPE score group.CONCLUSION: Predictors of recurrence differ when PFO relatedness is classified by the RoPE score, suggesting that patients with CS and PFO form a heterogeneous group with different stroke mechanisms. Echocardiographic features were only associated with recurrence in the high RoPE score group.

Predictors of Permanent Pacemaker Implantation in Patients With Severe Aortic Stenosis Undergoing TAVR

Background Atrioventricular (AV) conduction disturbances requiring permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation may complicate transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Available evidence on predictors of PPM is sparse and derived from small studies. Objectives The objective of this study was to provide summary effect estimates for clinically useful predictors of PPM implantation after TAVR. Methods We performed a systematic search for studies that reported the incidence of PPM implantation after TAVR and that provided raw data for the predictors of interest. Data on study, patient, and procedural characteristics were abstracted. Crude risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals for each predictor were calculated by use of random effects models. Stratified analyses by type of implanted valve were performed. Results We obtained data from 41 studies that included 11,210 TAVR patients, of whom 17% required PPM implantation after intervention. The rate of PPM ranged from 2% to 51% in individual studies (with a median of 28% for the Medtronic CoreValve Revalving System [MCRS] and 6% for the Edwards SAPIEN valve [ESV]). The summary estimates indicated increased risk of PPM after TAVR for men (RR: 1.23; p < 0.01); for patients with first-degree AV block (RR: 1.52; p < 0.01), left anterior hemiblock (RR: 1.62; p < 0.01), or right bundle branch block (RR: 2.89; p < 0.01) at baseline; and for patients with intraprocedural AV block (RR: 3.49; p < 0.01). These variables remained significant predictors when only patients treated with the MCRS bioprosthesis were considered. The data for ESV were limited. Unadjusted estimates indicated a 2.5-fold higher risk for PPM implantation for patients who received the MCRS than for those who received the ESV. Conclusions Male sex, baseline conduction disturbances, and intraprocedural AV block emerged as predictors of PPM implantation after TAVR. This study provides useful tools to identify high-risk patients and to guide clinical decision making before and after intervention.