An Investigation of User Costs and Benefits of Winter Road Closures, June 2005

This project explores the user costs and benefits of winter road closures. Severe winter weather makes travel unsafe and dramatically increases crash rates. When conditions become unsafe due to winter weather, road closures should allow users to avoid crash costs and eliminate costs associated with rescuing stranded motorists. Therefore, the benefits of road closures are the avoided safety costs. The costs of road closures are the delays that are imposed on motorists and motor carriers who would have made the trip had the road not been closed. This project investigated the costs and benefits of road closures and found that evaluating the benefits and costs is not as simple as it appears. To better understand the costs and benefits of road closures, the project investigates the literature, conducts interviews with shippers and motor carriers, and conducts case studies of road closures to determine what actually occurred on roadways during closures. The project also estimates a statistical model that relates weather severity to crash rates. Although, the statistical model is intended to illustrate the possibility to quantitatively relate measurable and predictable weather conditions to the safety performance of a roadway. In the future, weather conditions such as snow fall intensity, visibility, etc., can be used to make objective measures of the safety performance of a roadway rather than relying on subjective evaluations of field staff. The review of the literature and the interviews clearly illustrate that not all delays (increased travel time) are valued the same. Expected delays (routine delays) are valued at the generalized costs (value of the driver’s time, fuel, insurance, wear and tear on the vehicle, etc.), but unexpected delays are valued much higher because they result in interruption of synchronous activities at the trip’s destination. To reduce the costs of delays resulting from road closures, public agencies should communicate as early as possible the likelihood of a road closure.

Sex and clock to discover new PPARα functions

Summary : PPARα is a ligand-activated transcription factor that is a member of the nuclear receptor superfamily. In rodents, PPARα is highly expressed in liver, especially in parenchymal cells, where it has an impact on several hepatic functions such as nutrient metabolism, inflammation and metabolic stress. Ligands for PPARα comprise long chain unsaturated fatty acids, eicosanoids and lipid lowering fibrate drugs. In liver, many metabolic processes are orchestrated by the hepatic circadian clock. The aim of the hepatic clock is to synchronize cellular pathways allowing animals to adapt their metabolism to predictable daily changes in the environment. Indeed, similar to PPARα, the hepatic clock influences nutrient metabolism and detoxification through circadian output regulators :the PAR-domain basic leucine zipper proteins called PAR blip proteins. In this report, we showed that through a positive feedback loop mechanism, PAR. blip, proteins participate to the availability of PPARα endogenous ligands that contribute to the circadian expression and functions of PPARα. Interestingly, we also discovered some unexpected hepatic sexual dimorphic functions of PPARα. These functions are determined b PPARα sumoylation, interaction with DNA methylation mechanism and with unexpected proteins with gender specificity. The connection between circadian clock and hepatic sexual dimorphism opens new perspectives regarding the chronobiology of PPARα activity and the beneficial effects of PPARα agonist in the treatment of diseases related to steroid hormones metabolism characterized by inflammation and hepatotoxicity. Résumé : PPARα est un facteur de transcription activé par un ligand, membre de la superfamille des récepteurs nucléaires. Chez les rongeurs, PPARα est fortement exprimé dans le foie, spécialement dans les cellules du parenchyme dans lesquelles il joue un role important dans les fonctions hépatiques tels que le métabolisme des nutriments, l'inflammation et les stress métaboliques. Les ligands pour PPARα comprennent les acides gras à longues chaînes, les eicosanoides et les médicaments hypolipidémiques (fibrates). Dans le foie, beaucoup de processus métaboliques sont orchestrés par l'horloge circadienne hépatique. Le but de cette horloge est de synchroniser les voies métaboliqués permettant aux animaux d'adapter leurs métabolismes aux changements journaliers. Ainsi, l'horloge hépatique influence le métabolisme des nutriments tels que l'utilisation des lipides à travers certains régulateurs circadians appelés facteurs de transcription PAR bZips. Dans ce mémoire, nous avons montré qu'à travers une boucle de régulation, les protéines PAR bZip contrôlent la production des ligands endogènes à PPARα, jouant un rôle dans l'expression circadienne et les fonctions de PPARα. Nous avons également découvert des aspects méconnus des fonctions liées au dimorphisme sexuel de PPARα. Nous avons montré que PPARα est différemment sumoylisé entre les sexes et interagit avec la méthylation de l'ADN ainsi qu'avec des protéines insoupçonnées comme partenaires de PPARα. De part leur lien avec l'horloge circadienne et le dimorphisme sexuel, nos découvertes ouvrent de nouvelles perspectives concernant la chronobiologie de l'activité de PPARα et les effets bénéfiques des ses activateurs dans le traitement des maladies liées au métabolisme des hormones stéroides.

Functional MRI evaluation of liver tumour response after radiofrequency: short- and mid-term evolution of diffusion parameters

Purpose: To evaluate the short- and mid-term evolutions of the apparent diffusion coefficient of lesions treated with RF, in order to determine if the ADC can be used as a marker of tumour response. Methods and Materials: Twenty patients were treated for a liver malignancy with RF and were examined on a 1.5 T/3.0 T machine with T2, gadolinium-enhanced T1 and diffusion sequences: before treatment (< 1 month), just after treatment (< 1 month) and midterm (3-6 months). The ADC was measured in the whole lesion and in the area with the most restricted diffusion (MRDA). The ROI size was also measured on the diffusion map. The Pearson/ANOVA tests were used. Results: All patients were successfully treated with complete disappearance of CE. The lesional size on T2 showed a negative evolution in time (p < 0.002). The ADC in the whole lesion showed a bell-shaped evolution (increasing just after RF, then decreasing, p = 0.02). The ROI size on the diffusion map followed a similar course (p = 0.01). For the MRDA, such evolutions were also found, but they were not significant. There was a negative correlation between CE and the ADC (p < 0.02) and between the lesional size on T2 and ADC (p = 0.03) in the whole lesion. There were also positive correlations between the ROI size and ADC (p = 0.0008) and between CE and the size on T2 (p = 0.0002). The ADC in MRDA showed some non-significant correlations with other variables. Conclusion: The lesions successfully treated with RF have a clear and predictable evolution in terms of T2 size, CE and ADC.

Expression and one-step purification of Plasmodium proteins in dictyostelium.

Nearly full-length Circumsporozoite protein (CSP) from Plasmodium falciparum, the C-terminal fragments from both P. falciparm and P. yoelii CSP and a fragment comprising 351 amino acids of P.vivax MSPI were expressed in the slime mold Dictyostelium discoideum. Discoidin-tag expression vectors allowed both high yields of these proteins and their purification by a nearly single-step procedure. We exploited the galactose binding activity of Discoidin Ia to separate the fusion proteins by affinity chromatography on Sepharose-4B columns. Inclusion of a thrombin recognition site allowed cleavage of the Discoidin-tag from the fusion protein. Partial secretion of the protein was obtained via an ER independent pathway, whereas routing the recombinant proteins to the ER resulted in glycosylation and retention. Yields of proteins ranged from 0.08 to 3 mg l(-1) depending on the protein sequence and the purification conditions. The recognition of purified MSPI by sera from P. vivax malaria patients was used to confirm the native conformation of the protein expressed in Dictyostelium. The simple purification procedure described here, based on Sepharose-4B, should facilitate the expression and the large-scale purification of various Plasmodium polypeptides.

The impact of pre- and post-natal contexts on immunity, glucocorticoids and oxidative stress resistance in wild and domesticated grey partridges

Genetic background, prenatal and post-natal early-life conditions influence the development of interconnected physiological systems and thereby shape the phenotype. Certain combinations of genotypes and pre- and post-natal conditions may provide higher fitness in a specific environmental context. Here, we investigated how grey partridges Perdix perdix of two strains (wild and domesticated) cope physiologically with pre- and post-natal predictable vs. unpredictable food supply. Food unpredictability occurs frequently in wild environments and requires physiological and behavioural adjustments. Well-orchestrated and efficient physiological systems are presumably more vital in a wild environment as compared to captivity. We thus predicted that wild-strain grey partridges have a stronger immunity, glucocorticoid (GC) stress response and oxidative stress resistance (OSR) than domesticated birds, which have undergone adaptations to captivity. We also predicted that wild-strain birds react more strongly to environmental stimuli and, when faced with harsh prenatal conditions, are better able to prepare their offspring for similarly poor post-natal conditions than birds of domesticated origin. We found that wild-strain offspring were physiologically better prepared for stressful situations as compared to the domesticated strain. They had a high GC stress response and a high OSR when kept under predictable food supply. Wild-strain parents reacted to prenatal unpredictable food supply by lowering their offspring's GC stress response, which potentially lowered GC-induced oxidative pressure. No such pattern was evident in the domesticated birds. Irrespective of strain and prenatal feeding scheme, post-natal unpredictable food supply boosted immune indices, and GC stress response was negatively related to antibody response in females and to mitochondrial superoxide production. Wild-strain grey partridge showed fitness-relevant physiological advantages and appeared to prepare their offspring for the prospective environment. Negative relationships between GC stress response, immunity and oxidative indices imply a pivotal role of an organism's oxidative balance and support the importance of considering multiple physiological systems simultaneously.

Neck Pain in Adolescent Headache Sufferers. A Cohort Study of Schoolchildren

Although neck pain (NP) and headache (HA) are often concomitant in adolescents, few data exist on the association of NP with HA in this age group. The aim of the study was to examine the association of concomitant NP with adolescent HA and with the outcome of HA. The associations of self-reported NP, physical findings of the neck and disc degeneration of the cervical spine with adolescent HA were studied. This study is part of a population-based follow-up study of 12-year-old children (N 1135/1409) with and without HA. A sample of adolescents (N = 304) was followed to the age of 16 years. At the age of 17 years, 69 of them participated in a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study of the cervical spine. During the follow-up from 13 to 16 years of age, changes in both HA type and frequency were common. A poor outcome of HA was associated with NP interfering with daily activities at the age of 13 years. The changes in HA type were not predictable by NP. At the age of 16 years, local and referred palpation pain of the neck muscles, self-reported NP and NP intensity were associated with HA, and especially with disturbing HA unresponsive to analgesics. The association of NP with HA was not determined by HA type. Mild degenerative changes of the cervical spine were common but did not contribute to headache. HA in adolescence is often episodic, and prevention and treatment of NP could be important in the prevention of future chronic adult HA.

Temozolomide: a milestone in neuro-oncology and beyond?

Temozolomide (Temodal, Temodar), an imidazol derivative, is a second-generation alkylating agent. The orally available prodrug with the capacity of crossing the blood-brain barrier received accelerated US FDA approval in 1999. Three pivotal Phase II trials showed modest activity in the treatment of recurrent anaplastic astrocytoma glioblastoma. In 2005, the FDA and the European Agency for the Evaluation of Medicinal Products approved temozolomide for use in newly diagnosed glioblastoma, in conjunction with radiotherapy, based on an European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer/National Cancer Institute of Canada Phase III trial. The adverse events associated with temozolomide are mild-to-moderate and generally predictable; the most serious are noncumulative and reversible myelosuppression and, in particular, thrombocytopenia, which occurs in less than 5% of patients. Continuous temozolomide administration is associated with profound CD4-selective lymphocytopenia. Molecular studies have suggested that the benefit of temozolomide chemotherapy is restricted to patients whose tumors have a methylated methylguanine methyltransferase gene promotor and are thus unable to repair some of the chemotherapy-induced DNA damage. Temozolomide is under investigation for other disease entities, in particular lower-grade glioma, brain metastases and melanoma.

Determinants of linear judgment: A meta-analysis of lens model studies

The mathematical representation of Brunswik s lens model has been usedextensively to study human judgment and provides a unique opportunity to conduct ameta-analysis of studies that covers roughly five decades. Specifically, we analyzestatistics of the lens model equation (Tucker, 1964) associated with 259 different taskenvironments obtained from 78 papers. In short, we find on average fairly high levelsof judgmental achievement and note that people can achieve similar levels of cognitiveperformance in both noisy and predictable environments. Although overall performancevaries little between laboratory and field studies, both differ in terms of components ofperformance and types of environments (numbers of cues and redundancy). An analysisof learning studies reveals that the most effective form of feedback is information aboutthe task. We also analyze empirically when bootstrapping is more likely to occur. Weconclude by indicating shortcomings of the kinds of studies conducted to date, limitationsin the lens model methodology, and possibilities for future research.

A multi-objective model for a multi-period distribution management problem

The problems arising in commercial distribution are complex and involve several players and decision levels. One important decision is relatedwith the design of the routes to distribute the products, in an efficient and inexpensive way.This article deals with a complex vehicle routing problem that can beseen as a new extension of the basic vehicle routing problem. The proposed model is a multi-objective combinatorial optimization problemthat considers three objectives and multiple periods, which models in a closer way the real distribution problems. The first objective is costminimization, the second is balancing work levels and the third is amarketing objective. An application of the model on a small example, with5 clients and 3 days, is presented. The results of the model show the complexity of solving multi-objective combinatorial optimization problems and the contradiction between the several distribution management objective.

Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

Measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games

This paper explores three aspects of strategic uncertainty: its relation to risk, predictability of behavior and subjective beliefs of players. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Behavior in coordination games is related to risk aversion, experience seeking, and age.From the distribution of certainty equivalents we estimate probabilities for successful coordination in a wide range of games. For many games, success of coordination is predictable with a reasonable error rate. The best response to observed behavior is close to the global-game solution. Comparing choices in coordination games with revealed risk aversion, we estimate subjective probabilities for successful coordination. In games with a low coordination requirement, most subjects underestimate the probability of success. In games with a high coordination requirement, most subjects overestimate this probability. Estimating probabilistic decision models, we show that the quality of predictions can be improved when individual characteristics are taken into account. Subjects behavior is consistent with probabilistic beliefs about the aggregate outcome, but inconsistent with probabilistic beliefs about individual behavior.

Riding the South Sea bubble

This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock; it was profitable to "ride the bubble." Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by institutional factors such as restrictions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may only attack when some coordinating event promotes joint action.

Strategies for an integrated distribution problem

The problems arising in the logistics of commercial distribution are complexand involve several players and decision levels. One important decision isrelated with the design of the routes to distribute the products, in anefficient and inexpensive way.This article explores three different distribution strategies: the firststrategy corresponds to the classical vehicle routing problem; the second isa master route strategy with daily adaptations and the third is a strategythat takes into account the cross-functional planning through amulti-objective model with two objectives. All strategies are analyzed ina multi-period scenario. A metaheuristic based on the Iteratetd Local Search,is used to solve the models related with each strategy. A computationalexperiment is performed to evaluate the three strategies with respect to thetwo objectives. The cross functional planning strategy leads to solutions thatput in practice the coordination between functional areas and better meetbusiness objectives.

Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent withmodels of heterogeneous income profiles.

The State of the Judiciary, 2009

Thank you for inviting me again this year to talk with you about the condition of Iowa’s judicial branch. As your partner in government, we look forward to working with you on issues affecting the administration of justice. If I could capture the condition of our courts, indeed the condition of our state, in a few words, it would be: “We live in challenging times.” No one knows the true meaning of this phrase better than those Iowans hit by natural disasters. But my focus today is, of course, on the courts. Ensuring the delivery of equal, affordable and accessible justice is always challenging work, but it will be especially so this year and the next in light of the State’s budget problems. Given the magnitude of this challenge, it is even more imperative that we work together in the spirit of unity, candor and cooperation. And I address you today in this spirit. We are deeply concerned, as you are, about the present financial situation and its effect on individual Iowans. Naturally, we are particularly troubled about its impact on the delivery of justice to our citizens. Even in good economic times, the administration of justice is difficult to fulfill given the sheer volume and complexity of problems Iowans bring to their courthouses. Because of the effects of the nation’s economic downturn, people will need access to justice now more than ever. We already see this happening. The number of mortgage foreclosure cases in Iowa rose 14% in the past year. Debt collection cases increased 20% in the same time. An increase in these types of cases is predictable in tough economic times, but other types of problems may escalate as well. Some experts fear that a recession may also give rise to more crime, child abuse, domestic violence, and substance abuse. Naturally, for the sake of the people who may be harmed by these problems, we hope they do not occur. If they do, however, these matters will demand our immediate attention.