Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Peer interaction and learning opportunities in cohesive and less cohesive L2 classrooms

The present study investigates peer to peer oral interaction in two task based language teaching classrooms, one of which was a self-declared cohesive group, and the other a self- declared less cohesive group, both at B1 level. It studies how learners talk cohesion into being and considers how this talk leads to learning opportunities in these groups. The study was classroom-based and was carried out over the period of an academic year. Research was conducted in the classrooms and the tasks were part of regular class work. The research was framed within a sociocognitive perspective of second language learning and data came from a number of sources, namely questionnaires, interviews and audio recorded talk of dyads, triads and groups of four students completing a total of eight oral tasks. These audio recordings were transcribed and analysed qualitatively for interactions which encouraged a positive social dimension and behaviours which led to learning opportunities, using conversation analysis. In addition, recordings were analysed quantitatively for learning opportunities and quantity and quality of language produced. Results show that learners in both classes exhibited multiple behaviours in interaction which could promote a positive social dimension, although behaviours which could discourage positive affect amongst group members were also found. Analysis of interactions also revealed the many ways in which learners in both the cohesive and less cohesive class created learning opportunities. Further qualitative analysis of these interactions showed that a number of factors including how learners approach a task, the decisions they make at zones of interactional transition and the affective relationship between participants influence the amount of learning opportunities created, as well as the quality and quantity of language produced. The main conclusion of the study is that it is not the cohesive nature of the group as a whole but the nature of the relationship between the individual members of the small group completing the task which influences the effectiveness of oral interaction for learning.This study contributes to our understanding of the way in which learners individualise the learning space and highlights the situated nature of language learning. It shows how individuals interact with each other and the task, and how talk in interaction changes moment-by-moment as learners react to the ‘here and now’ of the classroom environment.

How small accounting firms can compete in an environment in which the big four are getting bigger

This paper sets out to determine how small accounting firms can compete in the United States in the early 21st century. The first chapter identifies the central goal of the paper: namely, to use existing literature and market data to define a business strategy for Ross & Moncure, Inc., a small accounting firm in the metropolitan Washington area. The second chapter is a literature review, and in it the author finds that large accounting firms are advantaged in terms of reputation, ability to diversify, and ability to retain employees, but are disadvantaged in their ability to form longstanding successful relationships with clients. In the third chapter, the author explores the relationship between the Big Four firms and their employees. The goal of this chapter is to determine how small accounting firms can compete for top talent in the HR market, and the author finds that this can be done by offering faster career progression and more client interaction. The fourth chapter looks at the market for accounting services in the United States, exploring the different options that consumers have to meet their accounting needs. It is found in this chapter that big and small accounting firms tend to compete for clients of different profiles. In the fifth chapter, the author uses proprietary company data to explore the composition, existing strategy and culture of Ross & Moncure. In the sixth chapter, all of the previous chapters come together to formulate a strategy and plan for action for Ross & Moncure: specifically, that the firm should further cultivate networks and relationships, and should create a fulfilling professional environment by increasing client-employee interaction, encouraging external education, and allowing employees to take on many different projects

Portuguese internet radio from 2006 to 2009: technical readiness and openness to interaction

[Extrat] The advent of thc internet raised questions about the role of radio in a fast-changing media environment. Many voices forecast its end but in the summer of 2008 the Swedish Radio and TV Authority published a study named 'The Future of Radio', which clearly opposed the pessimism of recent analysis. While the study anticipates the exhaustion of the FM model, it clearly broadens perspectives for DAB and internet radio, highlighting digitalization as the key element for the future relevance of radio. The Portuguese researcher and radio professional João Paulo Meneses states that 'the future of radio relies upon the internet', calling the broad service offerings of the net the pathway for the survival of radio from the threats to its two essential aspects: rnobility and accumulation (Meneses 2008). Accumulation is radio's capability to be used in a non­exclusive manner, which means that a listener can use the radio while performing other activities, like cooking, sewing, reading, writing or jogging.

Characterization of microbial populations in a wastewater treatment plant focusing on Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Dissertação de mestrado em Bioengenharia

Development of a rehabilitation system for the red mud waste generated at the Aughinish Alumina Bayer Plant

Aughinish Alumina Limited (AAL) have an obligation by terms of their Integrated Pollution Control Licence (IPCL) and Planning Permission to establish vegetation on the red mud stack at their plant at Aughinish, Co. Limerick. High pH and high exchangeable sodium percentage are the main known factors limiting the establishment of vegetation on red mud. Gypsum addition has been known to assist in alleviating these problems in other countries. However, there is no experience or published information on red mud rehabilitation under Irish conditions. Red mud with organic and inorganic waste-derived ameliorants as well as selected grassland species were examined under laboratory controlled environment conditions as well as in field plot trials. Also, in order that it would be economically achievable, the research utilised locally available waste products as the organic amendments. Screening trials found that physical constraints severely limit plant germination and growth in red mud. Gypsum addition effectively lowers pH, exchangeable sodium percentage and the availability of A1 and Fe in the mud. A strong relationship between pH, ESP and A1 levels was also found. Gypsum addition increased germination percentages and plant growth for all species investigated. Greenhouse trials demonstrated that organic wastes alone did not greatly improve conditions for plant growth but when used in conjunction with gypsum plant performances for all species investigated was significantly increased. There was a high mortality rate for grasses in non-gypsum treatments. An emerging trend of preferential iron uptake and calcium deficiency in non-gypsum treatments was found at pot screening stage. Species also displayed manganese and magnesium deficiencies.

Promise for plant pest control: root-associated pseudomonads with insecticidal activities.

Insects are an important and probably the most challenging pest to control in agriculture, in particular when they feed on belowground parts of plants. The application of synthetic pesticides is problematic owing to side effects on the environment, concerns for public health and the rapid development of resistance. Entomopathogenic bacteria, notably Bacillus thuringiensis and Photorhabdus/Xenorhabdus species, are promising alternatives to chemical insecticides, for they are able to efficiently kill insects and are considered to be environmentally sound and harmless to mammals. However, they have the handicap of showing limited environmental persistence or of depending on a nematode vector for insect infection. Intriguingly, certain strains of plant root-colonizing Pseudomonas bacteria display insect pathogenicity and thus could be formulated to extend the present range of bioinsecticides for protection of plants against root-feeding insects. These entomopathogenic pseudomonads belong to a group of plant-beneficial rhizobacteria that have the remarkable ability to suppress soil-borne plant pathogens, promote plant growth, and induce systemic plant defenses. Here we review for the first time the current knowledge about the occurrence and the molecular basis of insecticidal activity in pseudomonads with an emphasis on plant-beneficial and prominent pathogenic species. We discuss how this fascinating Pseudomonas trait may be exploited for novel root-based approaches to insect control in an integrated pest management framework.

Genotype-level interactions determine the degree of reduction of leaf rust on wheat by seed application of beneficial Pseudomonas spp.

Some bacteria have the capacity to reduce incidence and severity of plant diseases either by inhibiting the pathogen or by modulating the resistance response of the plant. Plants dispose of different resistance mechanisms that are influenced by the biotic and abiotic environment. The present experiments explored the effects of biocontrol strains of Pseudomonas fluorescens on the resistance of wheat varieties against brown rust disease caused by Puccinia triticina. Root inoculation with biocontrol pseudomonads reduced the disease severity on the leaves. The plant response depended on the genotype of both the microbes and the wheat varieties, suggesting a straight interaction at the molecular level.

Expression of a plant-derived peptide harboring water-cleaning and antimicrobial activities.

Drinking water is currently a scarce world resource, the preparation of which requires complex treatments that include clarification of suspended particles and disinfection. Seed extracts of Moringa oleifera Lam., a tropical tree, have been proposed as an environment-friendly alternative, due to their traditional use for the clarification of drinking water. However, the precise nature of the active components of the extract and whether they may be produced in recombinant form are unknown. Here we show that recombinant or synthetic forms of a cationic seed polypeptide mediate efficient sedimentation of suspended mineral particles and bacteria. Unexpectedly, the polypeptide was also found to possesses a bactericidal activity capable of disinfecting heavily contaminated water. Furthermore, the polypeptide has been shown to efficiently kill several pathogenic bacteria, including antibiotic-resistant isolates of Staphylococcus, Streptococcus, and Legionella species. Thus, this polypeptide displays the unprecedented feature of combining water purification and disinfectant properties. Identification of an active principle derived from the seed extracts points to a range of potential for drinking water treatment or skin and mucosal disinfection in clinical settings.

Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology

Phenological events - defined points in the life cycle of a plant or animal - have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reflecting flexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism - the tendency for closely related species to share similar ecological and biological attributes - in phenological traits across flowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of first flower and first leaf, encompassing 4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the set of included species, first, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantified phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to flower and leaf at similar times. By contrasting mean flowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of year that is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our findings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses.Synthesis. Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conserved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species' shared evolutionary histories.

Genomics of the divergence continuum in an African plant biodiversity hotspot, I: drivers of population divergence in Restio capensis (Restionaceae).

Understanding the drivers of population divergence, speciation and species persistence is of great interest to molecular ecology, especially for species-rich radiations inhabiting the world's biodiversity hotspots. The toolbox of population genomics holds great promise for addressing these key issues, especially if genomic data are analysed within a spatially and ecologically explicit context. We have studied the earliest stages of the divergence continuum in the Restionaceae, a species-rich and ecologically important plant family of the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa, using the widespread CFR endemic Restio capensis (L.) H.P. Linder & C.R. Hardy as an example. We studied diverging populations of this morphotaxon for plastid DNA sequences and >14 400 nuclear DNA polymorphisms from Restriction site Associated DNA (RAD) sequencing and analysed the results jointly with spatial, climatic and phytogeographic data, using a Bayesian generalized linear mixed modelling (GLMM) approach. The results indicate that population divergence across the extreme environmental mosaic of the CFR is mostly driven by isolation by environment (IBE) rather than isolation by distance (IBD) for both neutral and non-neutral markers, consistent with genome hitchhiking or coupling effects during early stages of divergence. Mixed modelling of plastid DNA and single divergent outlier loci from a Bayesian genome scan confirmed the predominant role of climate and pointed to additional drivers of divergence, such as drift and ecological agents of selection captured by phytogeographic zones. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of population genomics for disentangling the effects of IBD and IBE along the divergence continuum often found in species radiations across heterogeneous ecological landscapes.

Interaction between the Intermediate Host of Schistosomiasis in Brazil Biomphalaria glabrata (Planorbidae) and a Possible Competitor Melanoides tuberculata (Thiaridae): I. Laboratory Experiments

The biological control of Biomphalaria glabrata, intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni, is one the accepted options to fight schistosomiasis. One of the most promising candidates to control B. glabrata is the snail Melanoides tuberculata, a potential competitor. However, the mechanisms of interaction between the two species are not clear. Our objective is to determine if M. tuberculata indeed compete with B. glabrata, using two laboratory experiments. In Experiment 1, we tested the effect of the presence of M. tuberculata on the fecundity and mortality rates of B. glabrata. In Experiment 2, we tested if there was a direct or indirect interaction between the two species. In Experiment 1, M. tuberculata was eliminated after the peak in reproductive activity of B. glabrata. In Experiment 2, B. glabrata produced more egg masses when raised with M. tuberculata. The conditions leading to this unexpected positive effect of M. tuberculata on the fecundity of B. glabrata need further clarification, but emphasize that detailed studies of the interaction between these species in the conditions of the local environment should be considered.

Decoupled post-glacial history in mutualistic plant-insect interactions: insights from the yellow loosestrife (Lysimachia vulgaris) and its associated oil-collecting bees (Macropis europaea and M-fulvipes)

AimWe take a comparative phylogeographical approach to assess whether three species involved in a specialized oil-rewarding pollination system (i.e. Lysimachia vulgaris and two oil-collecting bees within the genus Macropis) show congruent phylogeographical trajectories during post-glacial colonization processes. Our working hypothesis is that within specialized mutualistic interactions, where each species relies on the co-occurrence of the other for survival and/or reproduction, partners are expected to show congruent evolutionary trajectories, because they are likely to have followed parallel migration routes and to have shared glacial refugia. LocationWestern Palaearctic. MethodsOur analysis relies on the extensive sampling of 104 Western Palaearctic populations (totalling 434, 159 and 74 specimens of Lysimachiavulgaris, Macropiseuropaea and Macropisfulvipes, respectively), genotyped with amplified fragment length polymorphism. Based on this, we evaluated the regional genetic diversity (Shannon diversity and allele rarity index) and genetic structure (assessed using structure, population networks, isolation-by-distance and spatial autocorrelation metrics) of each species. Finally, we compared the general phylogeographical patterns obtained. ResultsContrary to our expectations, the analyses revealed phylogeographical signals suggesting that the investigated organisms demonstrate independent post-glacial trajectories as well as distinct contemporaneous demographic parameters, despite their mutualistic interaction. Main conclusionsThe mutualistic partners investigated here are likely to be experiencing distinct and independent evolutionary dynamics because of their contrasting life-history traits (e.g. dispersal abilities), as well as distinct hubs and migration routes. Such conditions would prevent and/or erase any signature of co-structuring of lineages in space and time. As a result, the lack of phylogeographical congruence driven by differences in life-history traits might have arisen irrespective of the three species having shared similar Pleistocene glacial refugia.

Molecular detection of human astrovirus in an urban sewage treatment plant in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and dissemination of human astroviruses (HAstV) in the environment by analyzing urban sewage samples from a wastewater treatment plant in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A one-year study was performed with a total of 48 raw and treated sewage composite samples, which were collected biweekly from an activated sludge plant. Virus particles were concentrated by the adsorption-elution method using negatively charged membranes associated to a Centriprep Concentrator® 50 (Nihon Millipore). HAstV were detected in 16.7% of the samples in raw and treated sewage by using both qualitative and quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reactions (RT-PCR and qPCR, respectively). Positive untreated sewage sample exhibited mean values of 1.1 x 10(4) gEq/mL. The qPCR sensitivity was 18 gEq/reaction. Through utilization of qPCR, a HAstV recovery efficiency of 4.2% and 4.3% was demonstrated for raw and treated sewage samples, respectively. The presence of HAstV in both the raw and treated sewage samples demonstrated the dissemination of these viruses in the environment as well as viral permanence after sewage treatment. There was a reduction in the total and faecal coliform levels, indicating efficiency of the wastewater treatment plant.