Closed-loop model re-identification of processes under MPC with zone control

This work deals with a procedure for model re-identification of a process in closed loop with ail already existing commercial MPC. The controller considered here has a two-layer structure where the upper layer performs a target calculation based on a simplified steady-state optimization of the process. Here, it is proposed a methodology where a test signal is introduced in a tuning parameter of the target calculation layer. When the outputs are controlled by zones instead of at fixed set points, the approach allows the continuous operation of the process without an excessive disruption of the operating objectives as process constraints and product specifications remain satisfied during the identification test. The application of the method is illustrated through the simulation of two processes of the oil refining industry. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A log-extended Weibull regression model

A bathtub-shaped failure rate function is very useful in survival analysis and reliability studies. The well-known lifetime distributions do not have this property. For the first time, we propose a location-scale regression model based on the logarithm of an extended Weibull distribution which has the ability to deal with bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the model parameters and some inferential procedures are presented. We reanalyze a real data set under the new model and the log-modified Weibull regression model. We perform a model check based on martingale-type residuals and generated envelopes and the statistics AIC and BIC to select appropriate models. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The generalized log-gamma mixture model with covariates: local influence and residual analysis

In a sample of censored survival times, the presence of an immune proportion of individuals who are not subject to death, failure or relapse, may be indicated by a relatively high number of individuals with large censored survival times. In this paper the generalized log-gamma model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. The model attempts to separately estimate the effects of covariates on the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The logistic function is used for the regression model of the surviving fraction. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed under the log-gamma generalized mixture model. A residual analysis is performed in order to select an appropriate model.

Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Life history of Proctolaelaps bulbosus feeding on the coconut mite Aceria guerreronis and other possible food types occurring on coconut fruits

Aceria guerreronis Keifer (Acari: Eriophyidae) is a major pest of coconut fruits (Cocos nucifera L.) in many countries of the Americas, Africa, and parts of Asia. Considerable attention has been given to studies of biological control agents of A. guerreronis. Proctolaelaps bulbosus Moraes, Reis and Gondim Jr. is a predator recently discovered in association with A. guerreronis. Nothing is known about its biology. The aim of this study was to determine suitable food sources for P. bulbosus, among items commonly found on coconut fruits, including A. guerreronis. Food sources evaluated included the mites A. guerreronis, Steneotarsonemus concavuscutum Lofego and Gondim Jr., and Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Schrank), the fungus Rhizopus aff. stolonifer (Ehrenb.) Vuill and coconut pollen; the mite Tetranychus urticae Koch was also included in the assessments, for being a commonly used prey for mass production and laboratory rearing of predatory mites. Proctolaelaps bulbosus was able to develop up to adulthood when fed A. guerreronis, R. aff. stolonifer and T. putrescentiae. It had the highest population growth rates when feeding on the former (R (o) = 17.5; r (m) = 0.392). These results indicate that A. guerreronis is the most suitable food for P. bulbosus among the possible food sources found on coconut fruits and that P. bulbosus can survive in the absence of eriophyid using R. aff. stolonifer as a food source.

Biology of predator mite Euseius alatus DeLeon (Acari: Phytoseiidae) under different temperatures

Biology of predator mite Euseius alatus DeLeon (Acari: Phytoseiidae) under different temperatures. Euseius alatus DeLeon (Acari: Phytoseiidae) is one of the most common predators of tropical fruit trees in Brazil, feeding of pollen, mites and other small arthropods. This predator presents wide distribution, occurring from Rio Grande do Sul to Ceara. This work had as objective to evaluate the effect of temperature oil the development and reproduction of E. alatus, in addition to determining their thermal requirements. The study was accomplished at temperatures of 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 and 33 degrees C; relative humidity of 70 +/- 5%; and 12-h photophase. At these temperatures, the egg-adult period lasted 14.0; 8.1; 5.5; 4.9; 3.8 and 3.1 days, respectively. The egg, larva, protonymph and deutonymph stages and the egg-adult period presented thermal thresholds of 12.52; 13.85; 14.86; 14.86 and 13.31 degrees C,and thermal constants of 22.32; 14.23; 16.23; 17.3 and 70.16 degrees days. The values for the parameters of the fertility life table, analyzed ill conjunction With the values of the different variables of development at different temperatures, showed that the temperature of 30 degrees C is the Most suitable for development and reproduction of E. alatus in the laboratory. Therefore, is it apparent that the best temperature conditions for the development of L alatus are found in the warmer regions of Brazil, such as those observed in northeastern Brazil.

Predation and reproductive output of the ladybird beetle Stethorus tridens preying on tomato red spider mite Tetranychus evansi

Predatory behaviour and reproductive output of the ladybird beetle Stethorus tridens Gordon as function of the tomato red spider mite (TRSM), Tetranychus evansi Baker & Pritchard, densities was investigated in the laboratory. Adult female of S. tridens were isolated in cylindrical plastic arenas, containing a leaf disc of Solanum americanum Mill. with 5, 20, 40, 60, 80 or 100 T. evansi nymphs. The number of prey consumed and eggs laid were evaluated daily for ten consecutive days, starting at the oviposition. Oviposition of S. tridens was positively correlated with prey consumption and lower threshold prey consumption for S. tridens laying eggs was 16.3 mites per day. The instantaneous rate of attack (ca. discovery area) and the handling time were 0.0062 h(-1) and 0.83 h, and 0.00254 h(-1) and 0.78 h, respectively, for predators at the 1st- and 10th-oviposition day. The predator exhibited a type II functional response at 1st- and 10th-oviposition day with a maximum consumption per predator of 33 T. evansi nymphs per day at the highest prey density. The ladybird beetle S. tridens is often collected associated with red spider mite colonies on solanaceous wild plants and the results suggest the potential of this ladybird beetle to control T. evansi in tomatoes crops.

Predation potential and biology of Protogamasellopsis posnaniensis Wisniewski & Hirschmann (Acari: Rhodacaridae)

Rhodacaridae are cosmopolitan mites mentioned as predators, although nothing is known about their potential as biological control agents. One of the objectives of the work reported in this paper was to evaluate the potential of Protogamasellopsis posnaniensis (Acari: Rhodacaridae) as predator of representative species of insects of the families Sciaridae (Bradysia matogrossensis (Lane)) and Thripidae (Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande)), of mites of the family Acaridae (Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Schrank) and Rhizoglyphus echinopus (Fumouze & Robin) and of nematodes of the family Rhabditidae (Protorhabditis sp.). Another objective was to determine the biological cycle of P. posnaniensis when fed the prey on which it performed best in the preceding predation test. The study was conducted in a laboratory where the experimental units were maintained at 25 +/- 1 degrees C, 97 +/- 3% RH and in the dark. Although the predator was able to kill all prey species considered in this study, the most favorable prey were T. putrescentiae, F. occidentalis and Protorhabditis sp. Survivorship of the predator in predation tests was always 98% or higher. Life table biological parameters when the predator was fed T. putrescentiae were: R(o) = 109.29; T = 19.06 days; lambda = 1.28 e r(m) = 0.32 female/female/day. Despite preying upon larvae of B. matogrossensis, eggs of the former can also be killed by the latter. The results indicated that A posnaniensis is a promising biological control agent, deserving additional studies on its possible use for the control of soil pests. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Distribution of Tetranychus evansi and its predator Phytoseiulus longipes (Acari : Tetranychidae, Phytoseiidae) in southern Brazil

Tetranychus evansi is an important pest of tomato in several countries. The predatory mite Phytoseiulus longipes has been found in association with it in Uruguaiana, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the distribution of those two species in Uruguaiana region. Bi-weekly samples of plant parts were taken between January 28 and April 30, 2007 in Uruguaiana and five neighboring counties. Tetranychus evansi was found in all counties, but P. longipes was only found in Uruguaiana, mainly in the urban area. It is conceivable that such restricted distribution of P. longipes is due to its recent introduction to the region. Alternatively, unfavorable winter conditions could prevent its persistence, except in protected places. Buildings and vegetation characteristics of the urban area of Uruguaiana could moderate strong winds, intense rainfall and low temperatures that commonly occur in the area.

Life history of the predatory mite Phytoseiulus fragariae on Tetranychus evansi and Tetranychus urticae (Acari : Phytoseiidae, Tetranychidae) at five temperatures

Tetranychus evansi Baker and Pritchard and Tetranychus urticae Koch (Acari: Tetranychidae) are important pests of Solanaceae in many countries. Several studies have demonstrated that T. urticae is an acceptable prey to many predatory mites, although the suitability of this prey depends on the host plant. T. evansi, has been shown to be an unfavorable prey to most predatory mites that have been tested against it. The predator Phytoseiulus fragariae Denmark and Schicha (Acari: Phytoseiidae) has been found in association with the two species in Brazil. The objective of this work was to compare biological parameters of P. fragariae on T. evansi and on T. urticae as prey. The study was conducted under laboratory conditions at 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 degrees C. At all temperatures, survivorship was lower on T. evansi than on T. urticae. No predator reached adulthood at 10 degrees C on the former species; even on the latter species, only about 36% of the predators reached adulthood at 10 degrees C. For both prey, in general, duration of each life stage was shorter, total fecundity was lower and intrinsic rate of population increase (r(m) ) was higher with increasing temperatures. The slower rate of development of P. fragariae on T. evansi resulted in a slightly higher thermal requirement (103.9 degree-days) on that prey than on T. urticae (97.1 degree-days). The values of net reproduction rate (R-0), intrinsic rate of increase (r (m) ) and finite rate of increase (lambda) were significantly higher on T. urticae, indicating faster population increase of the predator on this prey species. The highest value of r (m) of the predator was 0.154 and 0.337 female per female per day on T. evansi and on T. urticae, respectively. The results suggested that P. fragariae cannot be considered a good predator of T. evansi.

WATER RESOURCES SITUATION AT PIRACICABA, CAPIVARI AND JUNDIAI WATERSHEDS USING A DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL

Using a dynamic systems model specifically developed for Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundia River Water Basins (BH-PCJ) as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for policy makers and decision takers, five simulations for 50 years timeframe were performed. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as wastewater generation from the consumers at BH-PCJ. A run was performed using mean precipitation value constant, and keeping the actual water supply and demand rates, the business as usual scenario. Under these considerations, it is expected an increment of about similar to 76% on water demand, that similar to 39% of available water volume will come from wastewater reuse, and that waste load increases to similar to 91%. Falkenmark Index will change from 1,403 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in 2004, to 734 m(3) P(-1) year(-1) by 2054, and the Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. Another four simulations were performed by affecting the annual precipitation by 90 and 110%; considering an ecological flow equal to 30% of the mean daily flow; and keeping the same rates for all other factors except for ecological flow and household water consumption. All of them showed a tendency to a water crisis in the near future at BH-PCJ.

Validation of a root water uptake model to estimate transpiration constraints

Experimental results obtained from a greenhouse trial with common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L) plants performed to test model hypotheses regarding the onset of limiting hydraulic conditions and the shape of the transpiration reduction curve in the falling rate phase are presented. According to these hypotheses based on simulations with an upscaled single-root model, the matric flux potential at the onset of limiting hydraulic conditions is as a function of root length density and potential transpiration rate, while the relative transpiration in the falling rate phase equals the relative matric flux potential. Transpiration of bean plants in water stressed pots with four different soils was determined daily by weighing and compared to values obtained from non-stressed pots. This procedure allowed determining the onset of the falling rate phase and corresponding soil hydraulic conditions. At the onset of the falling rate phase, the value of matric flux potential M(I) showed to differ in order of magnitude from the model predicted value for three out of four soils. This difference between model and experiment can be explained by the heterogeneity of the root distribution which is not considered by the model. An empirical factor to deal with this heterogeneity should be included in the model to improve predictions. Comparing the predictions of relative transpiration in the falling rate phase using a linear shape with water content, pressure head or matric flux potential, the matric flux potential based reduction function, in agreement with the hypothesis, showed the best performance, while the pressure head based equation resulted in the highest deviations between observed and predicted values of relative transpiration rates. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics in Oxisols of Ibiruba (Brazil) with the Century Model

introduction of conservation practices in degraded agricultural land will generally recuperate soil quality, especially by increasing soil organic matter. This aspect of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics under distinct cropping and management systems can be conveniently analyzed with ecosystem models such as the Century Model. In this study, Century was used to simulate SOC stocks in farm fields of the Ibiruba region of north central Rio Grande do Sul state in Southern Brazil. The region, where soils are predominantly Oxisols, was originally covered with subtropical woodlands and grasslands. SOC dynamics was simulated with a general scenario developed with historical data on soil management and cropping systems beginning with the onset of agriculture in 1900. From 1993 to 2050, two contrasting scenarios based on no-tillage soil management were established: the status quo scenario, with crops and agricultural inputs as currently practiced in the region and the high biomass scenario with increased frequency of corn in the cropping system, resulting in about 80% higher biomass addition to soils. Century simulations were in close agreement with SOC stocks measured in 2005 in the Oxisols with finer texture surface horizon originally under woodlands. However, simulations in the Oxisols with loamy surface horizon under woodlands and in the grassland soils were not as accurate. SOC stock decreased from 44% to 50% in fields originally under woodland and from 20% to 27% in fields under grasslands with the introduction of intensive annual grain crops with intensive tillage and harrowing operations. The adoption of conservation practices in the 1980s led to a stabilization of SOC stocks followed by a partial recovery of native stocks. Simulations to 2050 indicate that maintaining status quo would allow SOC stocks to recover from 81% to 86% of the native stocks under woodland and from 80% to 91 % of the native stocks under grasslands. Adoption of a high biomass scenario would result in stocks from 75% to 95% of the original stocks under woodlands and from 89% to 102% in the grasslands by 2050. These simulations outcomes underline the importance of cropping system yielding higher biomass to further increase SOC content in these Oxisols. This application of the Century Model could reproduce general trends of SOC loss and recovery in the Oxisols of the Ibiruba region. Additional calibration and validation should be conducted before extensive usage of Century as a support tool for soil carbon sequestration projects in this and other regions can be recommended. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deciphering the weathering processes using environmental mineralogy and geochemistry: Towards an integrated model of laterite and podzol genesis in the Upper Amazon Basin

This article reports major results from collaborative research between France and Brazil on soil and water systems, carried out in the Upper Amazon Basin. It reveals the weathering processes acting in the partly inundated, low elevation plateaus of the Basin, mostly covered by evergreen forest. Our findings are based on geochemical data and mineral spectroscopy that probe the crystal chemistry of Fe and Al in mineral phases (mainly kaolinite, Al- and Fe-(hydr)oxides) of tropical soils (laterites). These techniques reveal crystal alterations in mineral populations of different ages and changes of metal speciation associated with mineral or organic phases. These results provide an integrated model of soil formation and changes (from laterites to podzols) in distinct hydrological compartments of the Amazon landscapes and under altered water regimes. (C) 2010 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.