National exchange rate policies and international debt crises: how Brazil did not follow Argentina into a default in 2001-2002

This paper examines how exchange rate policies and IMF Stand-By Arrangements affect debt crises using econometrics and a comparison between Argentina and Brazil. It refines an existing diagram outlining crisis development to propose crisis prevention strategies. Flexible exchange rate policies reduce a country's probability of default by over 4%, but Stand-By Arrangements increase it by an inconsequential percentage. Unlike Argentina, Brazil avoided a default via a freely-floating exchange rate system, fiscal deficit reduction, and a cooperative and coordinated relationship with the IMF. The results provide policymakers from developing countries with lessons to manage their countries' default risks more effectively.

Optimal distance of the light-curing tip for light transmission through the resin composite

Hammaslääketieteessä käytetettävien komposiittien valonläpäisevyys vaihtelee. Samoin LED-valokovettimet eroavat toisistaan valotehonsa ja muotoilunsa perusteella. On yleisesti tiedossa, että valokovettimesta tulevan valon intensiteetti pinta-alayksikköä kohden heikkenee, kun kovettimen etäisyys kasvaa. Toisaalta ei ole tiedossa, miten valokovetettavan kohteen ja valokovettimen kärjen väliin sijoitettu materiaali tarkalleenottaen vaikuttaa valon intensiteettiin eri etäisyyksiä käytettäessä. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää, miten valokovetettavan kohteen ja valokovettimen kärjen väliin asetettava etukäteen polymerisoitu materiaali vaikuttaa valon intensiteettiin eri etäisyyksillä. Tutkimus suoritettiin käyttämällä kahta eri valokovetinta. Jotta etäisyyden vaikutusta valotustehoon voitiin demonstroida, vaihdettiin kovettimen etäisyyttä sensorista 0,2,4,6,8,10mm välillä. Valotehot rekisteröitiin MARC resin calibrator -laitteella. Sensorin ja valokovettimen kärjen väliin asetettavat erilaiset komposiittilevyt olivat valmiiksi kovetettuja,1mm paksuisia, filleripitoisuuksiltaan neljää erilaista muovia. Valotehot rekisteröitiin jokaiselta etäisyydeltä komposiitin ollessa sensorin päällä. Rinnakkaisesti verrattiin myös etäisyyden vaikutusta valotehoon ilman esikovetettua materiaalia kovettimen kärjen ja valoa mittaavan sensorin välissä. Vertailun suorittamiseksi laskettiin intensiteettisuhdeluku muovillisen ja muovittoman arvon välillä aina tietyllä etäisyydellä Valokovettimen kärjen etäisyyden kasvattaminen sensorista (eli valokovetettavasta kohteesta) odotusten mukaisesti pienensi valotehoa. Laittamalla sensorin ja kovettimen väliin komposiittilevy, valoteho pieneni odotetusti vielä enemmän. Tutkittaessa intensiteettisuhdetta (valoteho muovin kanssa : valoteho ilman muovia) kuitenkin huomattiin, että 4-6mm:n kohdalla suhdeluku oli suurempi kuin 0,2,8 ja 10mm kohdalla. Johtopäätöksenä oli, että suurin mahdollinen valokovetusteho saavutetan laittamalla kovetuskärki mahdollisimman lähelle kohdetta. Jos valokovetettavan kohteen ja valokovettimen kärjen välissä oli kiinteä komposiittipalanen, suurin mahdollinen valokovetusteho kohteeseen saavutetaan edelleen laittamalla kovetuskärki kiinni muoviin. Jos etäisyyttä muovin pinnasta sen sijaan kasvatettiin, valokovetusteho ei laskenutkaan niin nopeasti kuin oli odotettu. Tämä voi liittyä siihen, että tehokkaan valokeilan halkaisijan koko on suurempi verrattuna komposiitin sekä sensorin halkaisian kokoon. Toiseksi on arvioitu, että resiinikomposiitin täyteaineet voisivat fokusoida läpi kulkevaa valoa sensoriin. Se, pitääkö tämä ilmiö paikkansa, vaatii kuitenkin enemmän tutkimusta

A gerência recente do endividamento público brasileiro

The recente Brazilian public management. We use two frameworks to analyze the recent Brazilian public debt management. The first one encompasses the Brazilian optimal public debt management analysis through the examination of the correlations among the main variables to which the public debt is indexed. The second seeks to address the consequences of recent Brazilian economic policies, such as international reserves accumulation through sterilized interventions by the Central Bank and excessive capitalization of federal financial institutions. Those policies have important, albeit often ignored, fiscal impacts, which became important to determine the current size, maturity and composition of the public debt stock.

Optimal Recycling Combination of Ash in South-East Finland

The present world energy production is heavily relying on the combustion of solid fuels like coals, peat, biomass, municipal solid waste, whereas the share of renewable fuels is anticipated to increase in the future to mitigate climate change. In Finland, peat and wood are widely used for energy production. In any case, the combustion of solid fuels results in generation of several types of thermal conversion residues, such as bottom ash, fly ash, and boiler slag. The predominant residue type is determined by the incineration technology applied, while its composition is primarily relevant to the composition of fuels combusted. An extensive research has been conducted on technical suitability of ash for multiple recycling methods. Most of attention was drawn to the recycling of the coal combustion residues, as coal is the primary solid fuel consumed globally. The recycling methods of coal residues include utilization in a cement industry, in concrete manufacturing, and mine backfilling, to name few. Biomass combustion residues were also studied to some extent with forest fertilization, road construction, and road stabilization being the predominant utilization options. Lastly, residues form municipal solid waste incineration attracted more attention recently following the growing number of waste incineration plants globally. The recycling methods of waste incineration residues are the most limited due to its hazardous nature and varying composition, and include, among others, landfill construction, road construction, mine backfilling. In the study, environmental and economic aspects of multiple recycling options of thermal conversion residues generated within a case-study area were studied. The case-study area was South-East Finland. The environmental analysis was performed using an internationally recognized methodology — life cycle assessment. Economic assessment was conducted applying a widely used methodology — cost-benefit analysis. Finally, the results of the analyses were combined to enable easier comparison of the recycling methods. The recycling methods included the use of ash in forest fertilization, road construction, road stabilization, and landfill construction. Ash landfilling was set as a baseline scenario. Quantitative data about the amounts of ash generated and its composition was obtained from companies, their environmental reports, technical reports and other previously published literature. Overall, the amount of ash in the case-study area was 101 700 t. However, the data about 58 400 t of fly ash and 35 100 t of bottom ash and boiler slag were included in the study due to lack of data about leaching of heavy metals in some cases. The recycling methods were modelled according to the scientific studies published previously. Overall, the results of the study indicated that ash utilization for fertilization and neutralization of 17 600 ha of forest was the most economically beneficial method, which resulted in the net present value increase by 58% compared to ash landfilling. Regarding the environmental impact, the use of ash in the construction of 11 km of roads was the most attractive method with decreased environmental impact of 13% compared to ash landfilling. The least preferred method was the use of ash for landfill construction since it only enabled 11% increase of net present value, while inducing additional 1% of negative impact on the environment. Therefore, a following recycling route was proposed in the study. Where possible and legally acceptable, recycle fly and bottom ash for forest fertilization, which has strictest requirements out of all studied methods. If the quality of fly ash is not suitable for forest fertilization, then it should be utilized, first, in paved road construction, second, in road stabilization. Bottom ash not suitable for forest fertilization, as well as boiler slag, should be used in landfill construction. Landfilling should only be practiced when recycling by either of the methods is not possible due to legal requirements or there is not enough demand on the market. Current demand on ash and possible changes in the future were assessed in the study. Currently, the area of forest fertilized in the case-study are is only 451 ha, whereas about 17 600 ha of forest could be fertilized with ash generated in the region. Provided that the average forest fertilizing values in Finland are higher and the area treated with fellings is about 40 000 ha, the amount of ash utilized in forest fertilization could be increased. Regarding road construction, no new projects launched by the Center of Economic Development, Transport and the Environment in the case-study area were identified. A potential application can be found in the construction of private roads. However, no centralized data about such projects is available. The use of ash in stabilization of forest roads is not expected to increased in the future with a current downwards trend in the length of forest roads built. Finally, the use of ash in landfill construction is not a promising option due to the reducing number of landfills in operation in Finland.

Implementing the OPTIMAL model : the impact on students' motivation in an elementary school games environment

Optimal challenge occurs when an individual perceives the challenge of the task to be equaled or matched by his or her own skill level (Csikszentmihalyi, 1990). The purpose of this study was to test the impact of the OPTIMAL model on physical education students' motivation and perceptions of optimal challenge across four games categories (i. e. target, batting/fielding, net/wall, invasion). Enjoyment, competence, student goal orientation and activity level were examined in relation to the OPTIMAL model. A total of 22 (17 M; 5 F) students and their parents provided informed consent to take part in the study and were taught four OPTIMAL lessons and four non-OPTIMAL lessons ranging across the four different games categories by their own teacher. All students completed the Task and Ego in Sport Questionnaire (TEOSQ; Duda & Whitehead, 1998), the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory (IMI; McAuley, Duncan, & Tanmien, 1987) and the Children's Perception of Optimal Challenge Instrument (CPOCI; Mandigo, 2001). Sixteen students (two each lesson) were observed by using the System for Observing Fitness Instruction Time tool (SOFTT; McKenzie, 2002). As well, they participated in a structured interview which took place after each lesson was completed. Quantitative results concluded that no overall significant difference was found in motivational outcomes when comparing OPTIMAL and non-OPTIMAL lessons. However, when the lessons were broken down into games categories, significant differences emerged. Levels of perceived competence were found to be higher in non-OPTIMAL batting/fielding lessons compared to OPTIMAL lessons, whereas levels of enjoyment and perceived competence were found to be higher in OPTIMAL invasion lessons in comparison to non-OPTIMAL invasion lessons. Qualitative results revealed significance in feehngs of skill/challenge balance, enjoyment and competence in the OPTIMAL lessons. Moreover, a significance of practically twice the active movement time percentage was found in OPTIMAL lessons in comparison to non-OPTIMAL lessons.

Optimal and Robust Designs of Step-stress Accelerated Life Testing Experiments for Proportional Hazards Models

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is widely used to obtain reliability information about a product within a limited time frame. The Cox s proportional hazards (PH) model is often utilized for reliability prediction. My master thesis research focuses on designing accelerated life testing experiments for reliability estimation. We consider multiple step-stress ALT plans with censoring. The optimal stress levels and times of changing the stress levels are investigated. We discuss the optimal designs under three optimality criteria. They are D-, A- and Q-optimal designs. We note that the classical designs are optimal only if the model assumed is correct. Due to the nature of prediction made from ALT experimental data, attained under the stress levels higher than the normal condition, extrapolation is encountered. In such case, the assumed model cannot be tested. Therefore, for possible imprecision in the assumed PH model, the method of construction for robust designs is also explored.

Statement that Dr. Richard S. King became accountable for a Debt Owed to him by Dilly Coleman

Statement of Frederick Dilke of Port Robinson that Dr. Richard S. King became accountable for a debt owed to him by Dilly Coleman. The debt was assumed by Dr. Richard S. King, Sept. 24, 1850.

The Backing of Government Debt and the Price Level

This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies, and their joint role in the determination of the price level. The government is characterized by a long-run fiscal policy rule whereby a given fraction of the outstanding debt, say d, is backed by the present discounted value of current and future primary surpluses. The remaining debt is backed by seigniorage revenue. The parameter d characterizes the interdependence between fiscal and monetary authorities. It is shown that in a standard monetary economy, this policy rule implies that the price level depends not only on the money stock, but also on the proportion of debt that is backed with money. Empirical estimates of d are obtained for OECD countries using data on nominal consumption, monetary base, and debt. Results indicate that debt plays only a minor role in the determination of the price level in these economies. Estimates of d correlate well with institutional measures of central bank independence.

The Alberta Dilemma: Optimal Sharing of a Water Resource by an Agricultural and an Oil Sector

The purpose of this paper is to characterize the optimal time paths of production and water usage by an agricultural and an oil sector that have to share a limited water resource. We show that for any given water stock, if the oil stock is sufficiently large, it will become optimal to have a phase during which the agricultural sector is inactive. This may mean having an initial phase during which the two sectors are active, then a phase during which the water is reserved for the oil sector and the agricultural sector is inactive, followed by a phase during which both sectors are active again. The agricultural sector will always be active in the end as the oil stock is depleted and the demand for water from the oil sector decreases. In the case where agriculture is not constrained by the given natural inflow of water once there is no more oil, we show that oil extraction will always end with a phase during which oil production follows a pure Hotelling path, with the implicit price of oil net of extraction cost growing at the rate of interest. If the natural inflow of water does constitute a constraint for agriculture, then oil production never follows a pure Hotelling path, because its full marginal cost must always reflect not only the imputed rent on the finite oil stock, but also the positive opportunity cost of water.

Valuing Sovereign Default Risk - A Pricing Formula and its Empirical Results for the Mexican External Debt.

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