Development and validation of a multilevel model for predicting workload under routine and nonroutine conditions in an air traffic management center

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a model capable of predicting variability in the mental workload experienced by frontline operators under routine and nonroutine conditions. Background: Excess workload is a risk that needs to be managed in safety-critical industries. Predictive models are needed to manage this risk effectively yet are difficult to develop. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that workload prediction is a multilevel problem. Method: A multilevel workload model was developed in Study 1 with data collected from an en route air traffic management center. Dynamic density metrics were used to predict variability in workload within and between work units while controlling for variability among raters. The model was cross-validated in Studies 2 and 3 with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. Results: Reported workload generally remained within the bounds of the 90% prediction interval in Studies 2 and 3. Workload crossed the upper bound of the prediction interval only under nonroutine conditions. Qualitative analyses suggest that nonroutine events caused workload to cross the upper bound of the prediction interval because the controllers could not manage their workload strategically. Conclusion: The model performed well under both routine and nonroutine conditions and over different patterns of workload variation. Application: Workload prediction models can be used to support both strategic and tactical workload management. Strategic uses include the analysis of historical and projected workflows and the assessment of staffing needs. Tactical uses include the dynamic reallocation of resources to meet changes in demand.

Probabilistic assessment of herbicide runoff from Japanese rice paddies: The effects of local meteorological conditions and site-specific water management

Uncertainty assessments of herbicide losses from rice paddies in Japan associated with local meteorological conditions and water management practices were performed using a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, under the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme. First, MC simulations were conducted for five different cities with a prescribed water management scenario and a 10-year meteorological dataset of each city. The effectiveness of water management was observed regarding the reduction of pesticide runoff. However, a greater potential of pesticide runoff remained in Western Japan. Secondly, an extended analysis was attempted to evaluate the effects of local water management and meteorological conditions between the Chikugo River basin and the Sakura River basin using uncertainty inputs processed from observed water management data. The results showed that because of more severe rainfall events, significant pesticide runoff occurred in the Chikugo River basin even when appropriate irrigation practices were implemented. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

Effects of sewer conditions on the degradation of selected illicit drug residues in wastewater

The stability of five illicit drug markers in wastewater was tested under different sewer conditions using laboratory-scale sewer reactors. Wastewater was spiked with deuterium labelled isotopes of cocaine, benzoyl ecgonine, methamphetamine, MDMA and 6-acetyl morphine to avoid interference from the native isotopes already present in the wastewater matrix. The sewer reactors were operated at 20 °C and pH 7.5, and wastewater was sampled at 0, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 h to measure the transformation/degradation of these marker compounds. The results showed that while methamphetamine, MDMA and benzoyl ecgonine were stable in the sewer reactors, cocaine and 6-acetyl morphine degraded quickly. Their degradation rates are significantly higher than the values reportedly measured in wastewater alone (without biofilms). All the degradation processes followed first order kinetics. Benzoyl ecgonine and morphine were also formed from the degradation of cocaine and 6-acetyl morphine, respectively, with stable formation rates throughout the test. These findings suggest that, in sewage epidemiology, it is essential to have relevant information of the sewer system (i.e. type of sewer, hydraulic retention time) in order to accurately back-estimate the consumption of illicit drugs. More research is required to look into detailed sewer conditions (e.g. temperature, pH and ratio of biofilm area to wastewater volume among others) to identify their effects on the fate of illicit drug markers in sewer systems.

Degradability of creatinine under sewer conditions affects its potential to be used as biomarker in sewage epidemiology

Creatinine was proposed to be used as a population normalising factor in sewage epidemiology but its stability in the sewer system has not been assessed. This study thus aimed to evaluate the fate of creatinine under different sewer conditions using laboratory sewer reactors. The results showed that while creatinine was stable in wastewater only, it degraded quickly in reactors with the presence of sewer biofilms. The degradation followed first order kinetics with significantly higher rate in rising main condition than in gravity sewer condition. Additionally, daily loads of creatinine were determined in wastewater samples collected on Census day from 10 wastewater treatment plants around Australia. The measured loads of creatinine from those samples were much lower than expected and did not correlate with the populations across the sampled treatment plants. The results suggested that creatinine may not be a suitable biomarker for population normalisation purpose in sewage epidemiology, especially in sewer catchment with high percentage of rising mains.

The significance of controlled conditions in lentiviral vector titration and in the use of multiplicity of infection (MOI) for predicting gene transfer events

Background: Although lentiviral vectors have been widely used for in vitro and in vivo gene therapy researches, there have been few studies systematically examining various conditions that may affect the determination of the number of viable vector particles in a vector preparation and the use of Multiplicity of Infection (MOI) as a parameter for the prediction of gene transfer events. Methods: Lentiviral vectors encoding a marker gene were packaged and supernatants concentrated. The number of viable vector particles was determined by in vitro transduction and fluorescent microscopy and FACs analyses. Various factors that may affect the transduction process, such as vector inoculum volume, target cell number and type, vector decay, variable vector - target cell contact and adsorption periods were studied. MOI between 0-32 was assessed on commonly used cell lines as well as a new cell line. Results: We demonstrated that the resulting values of lentiviral vector titre varied with changes of conditions in the transduction process, including inoculum volume of the vector, the type and number of target cells, vector stability and the length of period of the vector adsorption to target cells. Vector inoculum and the number of target cells determine the frequencies of gene transfer event, although not proportionally. Vector exposure time to target cells also influenced transduction results. Varying these parameters resulted in a greater than 50-fold differences in the vector titre from the same vector stock. Commonly used cell lines in vector titration were less sensitive to lentiviral vector-mediated gene transfer than a new cell line, FRL 19. Within 0-32 of MOI used transducing four different cell lines, the higher the MOI applied, the higher the efficiency of gene transfer obtained. Conclusion: Several variables in the transduction process affected in in vitro vector titration and resulted in vastly different values from the same vector stock, thus complicating the use of MOI for predicting gene transfer events. Commonly used target cell lines underestimated vector titre. However, within a certain range of MOI, it is possible that, if strictly controlled conditions are observed in the vector titration process, including the use of a sensitive cell line, such as FRL 19 for vector titration, lentivector-mediated gene transfer events could be predicted. © 2004 Zhang et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis groE promoter controls the expression of the bicistronic groESL1 operon and shows differential regulation under stress conditions

Heat shock promoters of mycobacteria are strong promoters that become rapidly upregulated during macrophage infection and thus serve as valuable candidates for expressing foreign antigens in recombinant BCG vaccine. In the present study, a new heat shock promoter controlling the expression of the groESL1 operon was identified and characterized. Mycobacterium tuberculosis groESL1 operon codes for the immunodominant 10 kDa (Rv3418c, GroES/Cpn10/Hsp10) and 60 kDa (Rv3417c, GroEL1/Cpn60.1/Hsp60) heat shock proteins. The basal promoter region was 115 bp, while enhanced activity was seen only with a 277-bp fragment. No promoter element was seen in the groES-groEL1 intergenic region. This operon codes for a bicistronic mRNA transcript as determined by reverse transcriptase-PCR and Northern blot analysis. Primer extension analysis identified two transcriptional start sites (TSSs) TSS1 (-236) and TSS2 (-171), out of which one (TSS2) was heat inducible. The groE promoter was more active than the groEL2 promoter in Mycobacterium smegmatis. Further, it was found to be differentially regulated under stress conditions, while the groEL2 promoter was constitutive.

Shock propagation in gas dynamics: explicit form of higher order compatibility conditions

With the use of tensor analysis and the method of singular surfaces, an infinite system of equations can be derived to study the propagation of curved shocks of arbitrary strength in gas dynamics. The first three of these have been explicitly given here. This system is further reduced to one involving scalars only. The choice of dependent variables in the infinite system is quite important, it leads to coefficients free from singularities for all values of the shock strength.

Design expressions for the in-plane shear capacity of confined masonry shear walls containing squat panels

In-plane shear capacity formulation of reinforced masonry is commonly conceived as the sum of the capacities of three parameters, viz, the masonry, the reinforcement, and the precompression. The term “masonry” incorporates the aspect ratio of the wall without any regard to the aspect ratio of the panels inscribed (and hence confined) by the vertical and the horizontal reinforced grout cores. This paper proposes design expressions in which the aspect ratio of such panels is explicitly included. For this purpose, the grouted confining cores are regarded as a grid of confining elements within which the panels are positioned. These confined masonry panels are then considered as building blocks for multi-bay, multi-storied confined masonry shear walls and analyzed using an experimentally validated macroscopic finite-element model. Results of the analyzes of 161 confined masonry walls containing panels of height to length ratio less than 1.0 have been regressed to formulate design expressions. These expressions have been first validated using independent test data sets and then compared with the existing equations in some selected international design standards. The concept of including the unreinforced masonry panel aspect ratio as an additional term in the design expression for partially grouted/confined masonry shear walls is recommended based on the conclusions from this paper.

Predicting the performance of LSF walls made of hollow flange channel sections in fire

Fire resistance of load bearing Light Gauge Steel Frame (LSF) wall systems is important to protect lives and properties in fire accidents. Recent fire tests of LSF walls made of the new cold-formed and welded hollow flange channel (HFC) section studs and the commonly used lipped channel section (LCS) studs have shown the influence of stud sections on the fire resistance rating (FRR) of LSF walls. To advance the use of HFC section studs and to verify the outcomes from the fire tests, finite element models were developed to predict the structural fire performance of LSF walls made of welded HFC section studs. The developed models incorporated the measured non-uniform temperature distributions in LSF wall studs due to the exposure of standard fire on one side, and accurate elevated temperature mechanical properties of steel used in the stud sections. These models simulated the various complexities involved such as thermal bowing and neutral axis shift caused by the non-uniform temperature distribution in the studs. The finite element analysis (FEA) results agreed well with the full scale fire test results including the FRR, outer hot and cold flange temperatures at failure and axial deformation and lateral displacement profiles. They also confirmed the superior fire performance of LSF walls made of HFC section studs. The applicability of both transient and steady state FEA of LSF walls under fire conditions was verified in this study, which also investigated the effects of using various temperature distribution patterns across the cross-section of HFC section studs on the FRR of LSF walls. This paper presents the details of this numerical study and the results.

Self-Absorption and Focusing Effects in Carrier Relaxation Dynamics under Depletion Conditions

The effect of a one-dimensional field (1) on the self-absorption characteristics and (2) when we have a finite numerical aperture for the objective lens that focuses the laser beam on the solid are considered here. Self-absorption, in particular its manifestation as an inner filter for the emitted signal, has been observed in luminescence experiments. Models for this effect exist and have been analyzed, but only in the absence of space charge. Using our previous results on minority carrier relaxation in the presence of a field, we obtain expressions incorporating inner filter effects. Focusing of a light beam on the sample, by an objective lens, results in a three-dimensional source and consequently a three-dimensional continuity equation to be solved for the minority carrier concentration. Assuming a one-dimensional electric field and employing Fourier-Bessel transforms, we recast the problem of carrier relaxation and solve the same via an identity that relates it to solutions obtained in the absence of focusing effects. The inner filter effect as well as focusing introduces new time scales in the problem of carrier relaxation. The interplay between the electric field and the parameters which characterize these effects and the consequent modulation of the intensity and time scales of carrier decay signals are analyzed and discussed.

Dynamic initiation toughness measu~ment using double Grooved discs

Among the multitude of test specimen geometries used for dynamic fiacture toughness evaluation, the most widely uscd specimen is lhc Chavpy specimen due its simple geomclry and availability of testing machines. The standard Chatpy specimen dimensions may llOl always give plane st~ain condilions and hence, it may be necessary Io coilduct lcs/s using specimens of dillEvcnt thicknesses to establish the plane strain K~a. An axisymmct/ic specimen, on the otlaev hand would always give flow constraints l~n a nominal specimen thickness i~rcspcctive of the test matctial. The notched disk specimen pVOl)oscd by Bcrn:ud ctal. [1] for static and dynamic initiation toughness measurement although p~ovicles plain-strain conditions, the crack plopagatcs at an angle to the direction of applied load. This makes inteq~retation of the test results difficult us it ~Ccluivcs ~actial slices to be cut fiom the fractured specimen to ascertain the angle o1 crack growth and a linite element model l~)r tl);t{ pa~ticulat ctack o~icntalion.

Role of polarization in probing anomalous gauge interactions of the Higgs boson

We explore the use of polarized e(+)/e(-) beams and/or the information on final state decay lepton polarizations in probing the interaction of the Higgs boson with a pair of vector bosons. A model independent analysis of the process e(+)e(-) -> f (f) over barH, where f is any light fermion, is carried out through the construction of observables having identical properties under the discrete symmetry transformations as different individual anomalous interactions. This allows us to probe an individual anomalous term independent of the others. We find that initial state beam polarization can significantly improve the sensitivity to CP-odd couplings of the Z boson with the Higgs boson (ZZH). Moreover, an ability to isolate events with a particular tau helicity, with even 40% efficiency, can improve sensitivities to certain ZZH couplings by as much as a factor of 3. In addition, the contamination from the ZZH vertex contributions present in the measurement of the trilinear Higgs-W (WWH) couplings can be reduced to a great extent by employing polarized beams. The effects of initial state radiation and beamstrahlung, which can be relevant for higher values of the beam energy are also included in the analysis.

Analytical solution of unsteady three-dimensional MHD boundary layer flow and heat transfer due to impulsively stretched plane surface

The unsteady magnetohydrodynamic viscous flow and heat transfer of Newtonian fluids induced by an impulsively stretched plane surface in two lateral directions are studied by using an analytic technique, namely, the homotopy method. The analytic series solution presented here is highly accurate and uniformly valid for all time in the entire region. The effects of the stretching ratio and the magnetic field on the surface shear stresses and heat transfer are studied. The surface shear stresses in x- and y-directions and the surface heat transfer are enchanced by increasing stretching ratio for a fixed value of the magnetic parameter. For a fixed stretching ratio, the surface shear stresses increase with the magnetic parameter, but the heat transfer decreases. The Nusselt number takes longer time to reach the steady state than the skin friction coefficients. There is a smooth transition from the initial unsteady state to the steady state.