884 resultados para Litmanen, Tapio: The struggle over risk


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Today, environmental impact associated with pollution treatment is a matter of great concern. A method is proposed for evaluating environmental risk associated with Advanced Oxidation Processes (AOPs) applied to wastewater treatment. The method is based on the type of pollution (wastewater, solids, air or soil) and on materials and energy consumption. An Environmental Risk Index (E), constructed from numerical criteria provided, is presented for environmental comparison of processes and/or operations. The Operation Environmental Risk Index (EOi) for each of the unit operations involved in the process and the Aspects Environmental Risk Index (EAj) for process conditions were also estimated. Relative indexes were calculated to evaluate the risk of each operation (E/NOP) or aspect (E/NAS) involved in the process, and the percentage of the maximum achievable for each operation and aspect was found. A practical application of the method is presented for two AOPs: photo-Fenton and heterogeneous photocatalysis with suspended TiO2 in Solarbox. The results report the environmental risks associated with each process, so that AOPs tested and the operations involved with them can be compared.

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Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

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The role of genetic factors in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is not completely understood. In order to improve this understanding, the cerebral glucose metabolism of seven monozygotic and nine dizygotic twin pairs discordant for AD was compared to that of 13 unrelated controls using positron emission tomography (PET). Traditional region of interest analysis revealed no differences between the non-demented dizygotic co-twins and controls. In contrast, in voxel-level and automated region of interest analyses, the non-demented monozygotic co-twins displayed a lower metabolic rate in temporal and parietal cortices as well as in subcortical grey matter structures when compared to controls. Again, no reductions were seen in the non-demented dizygotic co-twins. The reductions seen in the non-demented monozygotic co-twins may indicate a higher genetically mediated risk of AD or genetically mediated hypometabolism possibly rendering them more vulnerable to AD pathogenesis. With no disease modifying treatment available for AD, prevention of dementia is of the utmost importance. A total of 2 165 at least 65 years old twins of the Finnish Twin Cohort with questionnaire data from 1981 participated in a validated telephone interview assessing cognitive function between 1999 and 2007. Those subjects reporting heavy alcohol drinking in 1981 had an elevated cognitive impairment risk over 20 years later compared to light drinkers. In addition, binge drinking was associated with an increased risk even when total alcohol consumption was controlled for, suggesting that binge drinking is an independent risk factor for cognitive impairment. When compared to light drinkers, also non-drinkers had an increased risk of cognitive impairment. Midlife hypertension, obesity and low leisure time physical activity but not hypercholesterolemia were significant risk factors for cognitive impairment. The accumulation of risk factors increased cognitive impairment risk in an additive manner. A previously postulated dementia risk score based on midlife demographic and cardiovascular factors was validated. The risk score was found to well predict cognitive impairment risk, and cognitive impairment risk increased significantly as the score became higher. However, the risk score is not accurate enough for use in the clinic without further testing.

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This thesis consists of four articles and an introductory section. The main research questions in all the articles refer to the changes in the representativeness of the Finnish Paper Workers' Union. Representativeness stands for the entire entity of external, internal, legal and reputational factors that enable the labor union to represent its members and achieve its goals. This concept is based on an extensive reading of quantitative and qualitative industrial relations literature, which includes works based on Marxist labor-capital relations (such as Hyman's industrial relations studies), and more recent union density studies as well as gender- and ethnic diversity-based 'union revitalization' studies. Müller-Jentsch's German studies of industrial relations have been of particular importance as well as Streeck's industrial unionism and technology studies. The concept of representativeness is an attempt to combine the insights of these diverse strands of literature and bring the scientific discussion of labor unions back to the core of a union's function: representing its members. As such, it can be seen as a theoretical innovation. The concept helps to acknowledge both the heterogeneity of the membership and the totality of a labor union organization. The concept of representativeness aims to move beyond notions of 'power'. External representativeness can be expressed through the position of the labor union in the industrial relations system and the economy. Internal representativeness focuses on the aspects of labor unions that relate to the function of the union as an association with members, such as internal democracy. Legal representativeness lies in the formal legal position of the union – its rights and instruments. This includes collective bargaining legislation, co-decision rules and industrial conflict legislation. Reputational representativeness is related to how the union is seen by other actors and the general public, and can be approximated using data on strike activity. All these aspects of representativeness are path-dependent, and show the results of previous struggles over issues. The concept of representativeness goes beyond notions of labor union power and symbolizes an attempt to bring back the focus of industrial relations studies to the union's basic function of representing its members. The first article shows in detail the industrial conflict of the Finnish paper industry in 2005. The intended focus was the issue of gender in the negotiations over a new collective agreement, but the focal point of the industrial conflict was the issue of outsourcing and how this should be organized. Also, the issue of continuous shifts as an issue of working time was very important. The drawn-out conflict can be seen as a struggle over principles, and under pressure the labor union had to concede ground on the aforementioned issues. The article concludes that in this specific conflict, the union represented its' female members to a lesser extent, because the other issues took such priority. Furthermore, because of the substantive concessions. the union lost some of its internal representativeness, and the stubbornness of the union may have even harmed the reputation of the union. This article also includes an early version of the representativeness framework, through which this conflict is analyzed. The second article discusses wage developments, union density and collective bargaining within the context of representativeness. It is shown that the union has been able to secure substantial benefits for its members, regardless of declining employment. Collective agreements have often been based on centralized incomes policies, but the paper sector has not always joined these. Attention is furthermore paid to the changing competition of the General Assembly, with a surprisingly strong position of the Left Alliance still. In an attempt to replicate analysis of union density measures, an analysis of sectoral union density shows that similar factors as in aggregate data influence this measure, though – due to methodological issues – the results may not be robust. On this issue, it can be said that the method of analysis for aggregate union density is not suitable for sectoral union density analysis. The increasingly conflict-ridden industrial relations predicted have not actually materialized. The article concludes by asking whether the aim of ever-increasing wages is a sustainable one in the light of the pressures of globalization, though wage costs are a relatively small part of total costs. The third article discusses the history and use of outsourcing in the Finnish paper industry. It is shown using Hyman's framework of constituencies that over time, the perspective of the union changed from 'members of the Paper Workers' Union' to a more specific view of who is a core member of the union. Within the context of the industrial unionism that the union claims to practice, this is an important change. The article shows that the union more and more caters for a core group, while auxiliary personnel is less important to the union's identity and constituencies, which means that the union's internal representativeness has decreased. Maintenance workers are an exception; the union and employers have developed a rotating system that increases the efficient allocation of these employees. The core reason of the exceptional status of maintenance personnel is their high level of non-transferable skills. In the end it is debatable whether the compromise on outsourcing solves the challenges facing the industry. The fourth article shows diverging discourses within the union with regard to union-employer partnership for competitiveness improvements and instruments of local union representatives. In the collective agreement of 2008, the provision regulating wage effects of significant changes in the organization or content of work was thoroughly changed, though this mainly reflected decisions by the Labor Court on the pre-2008 version of the provision. This change laid bare the deep rift between the Social Democratic and Left Alliance (ex-Communist) factions of the union. The article argues that through the changed legal meaning of the provision, the union was able to transform concession bargaining into a basis for partnership. The internal discontent about this issue is nonetheless substantial and a threat to the unity of the union, both locally and at the union level. On the basis of the results of the articles, other factors influencing representativeness, such as technology and EU law and an overview of the main changes in the Finnish paper industry, it is concluded that, especially in recent years, the Finnish Paper Workers' Union has lost some of its representativeness. In particular, the loss of the efficiency of strikes is noted, the compromise on outsourcing which may have alienated a substantial part of the union's membership, and the change in the collective agreement of 2008 have caused this decline. In the latter case, the internal disunion on that issue shows the constraints of the union's internal democracy. Furthermore, the failure of the union to join the TEAM industrial union (by democratic means), the internal conflicts and a narrow focus on its own sector may also hurt the union in the future, as the paper industry in Finland is going through a structural change. None of these changes in representativeness would have been so drastic without the considerable pressure of globalization - in particular changing markets, changing technology and a loss of domestic investments to foreign investments, which in the end have benefited the corporations more than the Finnish employees of these corporations. Taken together, the union risks becoming socially irrelevant in time, though it will remain formally very strong on the basis of its institutional setting and financial situation.

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Risk factors for subclinical mastitis were studied in 474 buffaloes cows proceeding from four dairy farms located in the states of Pernambuco, Alagoas, Bahia and Ceará, Brazil. Milk samples (n=1896) of lactating buffaloes cows were examined for somatic cells count (SCC) and microbiologic exam, and a questionnaire composed by objective questions was applied in order to obtain animals and herd management data. Risk factors analysis was performed in two stages: univariate and mutivariate analysis. Two analysis were performed, one considering the animal classification for SCC as the dependent variable (<400,000 - negative; >400,000 - positive) and another, considering the microbiologic exam result (positive and negative). In the multivariate analysis considering SCC as dependent variable, the lack of teat washing was the only variable identified as a risk factor, so that farms without this procedure before the milking presented risk of infection of 2.68 (I.C. 1.49-4.83). In the multivariate analysis considering the microbiologic exam as dependent variable, it was observed that properties that performed the cleaning of the milking equipment manually presented risk of 1.85 (I.CI. 1.32-3.64), which was higher than those properties that performed the cleaning mechanically (p=0.019). Risk factors for the occurrence of subclinical mastitis in dairy buffaloes in Brazilian Northeast farms were related to the characteristics of improper milking management. Risk factors identified in this study must be carefully corrected in order to reduce the frequency of mastitis cases, and therefore, contribute for disease control and prevention in the herds.

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Few data are available on the prevalence and risk factors of Chlamydophila abortus infection in goats in Brazil. A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the flock-level prevalence of C. abortus infection in goats from the semiarid region of the Paraíba State, Northeast region of Brazil, as well as to identify risk factors associated with the infection. Flocks were randomly selected and a pre-established number of female goats > 12 mo old were sampled in each of these flocks. A total of 975 serum samples from 110 flocks were collected, and structured questionnaire focusing on risk factors for C. abortus infection was given to each farmer at the time of blood collection. For the serological diagnosis the complement fixation test (CFT) using C. abortus S26/3 strain as antigen was performed. The flock-level factors for C. abortus prevalence were tested using multivariate logistic regression model. Fifty-five flocks out of 110 presented at least one seropositive animal with an overall prevalence of 50.0% (95%; CI: 40.3%, 59.7%). Ninety-one out of 975 dairy goats examined were seropositive with titers >32, resulting in a frequency of 9.3%. Lend buck for breeding (odds ratio = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.04-5.33) and history of abortions (odds ratio = 3.06; 95% CI: 1.37-6.80) were associated with increased flock prevalence.

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Cesarean section (CS) is the most common major surgery performed on women worldwide. CS can save the life of the mother or the fetus, but is associated with the typical complications of any major surgery: hemorrhage, infection, venous thromboembolism and complications of anesthesia, sometimes leading to maternal death. Recently there have been several reports from well resourced countries on increased severe maternal morbidity and even mortality. Increased rates of CS, obesity and older mothers may explain this rise. The aim of this thesis is to study the rates and risk factors of short term maternal complications associated with CS. Also, we compared maternal morbidity by mode of delivery and over time. The complication rates were assessed in a prospective study involving 2496 CS performed in the 12 largest delivery units in Finland in 2005. The rates of severe complications were studied by mode of delivery in a register-based study comparing national cohorts in 1997 and 2002. The impact of several risk factors on severe maternal morbidity by mode of delivery was studied in a register-based study of all singleton deliveries in 2007-2011. In the prospective study, 27% of the women who underwent CS had one or more intraoperative or postoperative complications during their hospital stay, and 10% had a severe complication. In the register-based study the incidence of life-threatening maternal complications was 7.6 in 1000 deliveries. The incidence was lowest for vaginal delivery (VD), followed by instrumental VD and elective CS, and highest in emergency CS. An attempt of VD, including the risks associated with emergency CS, seems to be the safest mode of delivery, even for most high-risk women.

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Real option valuation, in particular the fuzzy pay-off method, has proven to be useful in defining risk and visualizing imprecision of investments in various industry applications. This study examines whether the evaluation of risk and profitability for public real estate investments can be improved by using real option methodology. Firstly, the context of real option valuation in the real estate industry is examined. Further, an empirical case study is performed on 30 real estate investments of a Finnish government enterprise in order to determine whether the presently used investment analysis system can be complemented by the pay-off method. Despite challenges in the application of the pay-off method to the case company’s large investment base, real option valuation is found to create additional value and facilitate more robust risk analysis in public real estate applications.

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This thesis was carried out as a case study of a company YIT in order to clarify the sev-erest risks for the company and to build a method for project portfolio evaluation. The target organization creates new living environment by constructing residential buildings, business premises, infrastructure and entire areas worth for EUR 1.9 billion in the year 2013. Company has noted project portfolio management needs more information about the structure of project portfolio and possible influences of market shock situation. With interviews have been evaluated risks with biggest influence and most appropriate metrics to examine. The major risks for the company were evaluated by interviewing the executive staff. At the same time, the most appropriate risk metrics were considered. At the moment sales risk was estimated to have biggest impact on company‟s business. Therefore project port-folio evaluation model was created and three different scenarios for company‟s future were created in order to identify the scale of possible market shock situation. The created model is tested with public and descriptive figures of YIT in a one-year-long market shock and the impact on different metrics was evaluated. Study was conducted using con-structive research methodology. Results indicate that company has notable sales risk in certain sections of business portfolio.

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The objective of this thesis was to identify the determinants of bone strength and predictors of hip fracture in representative samples of Finnish adults. A secondary objective was to construct a simple multifactorial model for hip fracture prediction over a 10-year follow-up period. The study was based on the Health 2000 Survey conducted during 2000 to 2001 (men and women aged 30 years or over, n=6 035) and the Mini-Finland Health Survey conducted during 1978 to 1980 (women aged 45 years or over, n=2 039). Study subjects participated in health interviews and comprehensive health examination. In the Health 2000 Survey, bone strength was assessed by means of calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS). The follow-up information about hip fractures was drawn from the National Hospital Discharge Register. In this study, age, weight, height, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (S-25(OH)D), physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption as well as menopause and eventual HRT in women were found to be associated with calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and speed of sound (SOS). Parity was associated with a decreased risk of hip fracture in postmenopausal women. Age, height, weight or waist circumference, quantitative ultrasound index (QUI), S-25(OH)D and fall-related factors, such as maximal walking speed, Parkinson’s disease, and the number of prescribed CNS active medication were significant independent predictors of hip fracture. At the population level, the incremental value of QUS appeared to be minor in hip fracture prediction when the fall-related risk factors were taken into account. A simple multifactorial model for hip fracture prediction presented in this study was based on readily available factors (age, gender, height, waist circumference, and fallrelated factors). Prospective studies are needed to test this model in patient-based study populations.

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The purpose of this thesis is to focus on credit risk estimation. Different credit risk estimation methods and characteristics of credit risk are discussed. The study is twofold, including an interview of a credit risk specialist and a quantitative section. Quantitative section applies the KMV model to estimate credit risk of 12 sample companies from three different industries: automobile, banking and financial sector and technology. Timeframe of the estimation is one year. On the basis of the KMV model and the interview, implications for analysis of credit risk are discussed. The KMV model yields consistent results with the existing credit ratings. However, banking and financial sector requires calibration of the model due to high leverage of the industry. Credit risk is considerably driven by leverage, value and volatility of assets. Credit risk models produce useful information on credit worthiness of a business. Yet, quantitative models often require qualitative support in the decision-making situation.

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This study examined how one university professor negotiated the boundaries between his personal life as a gay man and his professional life as a teacher. Using his sexual orientation as a focal point, the study explored the circumstances and underlying assumptions that influenced this professor's decisions to disclose information of a personal nature. Data collection was solicited from a number of sources: (a) In-depth interviews with the participant, his colleagues, students, and friends; (b) Field observation of the participant teaching over a 3 -day period; and (c) A document review of lesson plans, course outlines, student feedback forms, and the participant's teaching portfolio. The researcher maintained both observation journals and reflective journals during this process. Data analysis using the constant comparative method elicited several themes. The participant engaged in a variety of strategies in disclosing his sexual orientation that included: (a) no disclosure at all, (b) assuming people knew, (c) casually mentioning it in conversation, and (d) deliberately planning to tell someone. The participant also engaged in an ongoing assessment of his environment that included evaluating the level of risk in disclosing his sexual orientation and assessing the listener's ability to receive the information. The participant cited numerous reasons for disclosing his sexual orientation. Further inquiry revealed a number of belief systems that underlined these reasons. These belief systems included beliefs around privacy, authenticity, teaching, manners, professionalism, and homosexuality. The conclusions suggested that the participant utilized a consistent process in both his personal and professional lives to determine what information was kept private and what information was made public. While the process used to determine the degree of disclosure was consistent, the actual disclosures themselves varied widely in nature.

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The mediating roles of stress, social support, and health risk behaviours in the relationships between dispositional forgiveness and mental and physical health were examined. Participants were 748 undergraduate students (554 women, 194 men) entering their first year of studies at Brock University. Participants, ranging in age from 17 to 25 years, completed the Brock University First Year Health Study and were provided monetary compensation. Dispositional forgiveness, stress, social support, health risk behaviours, mental health, and physical health were measured using self-report methods. The data were analyzed separately for women and men because there were significant mean differences on many of the study'S variables. Analyses revealed that the mediated relationships between dispositional forgiveness and health were generally stronger for women than men. Stress was the most robust mediator of the forgiveness-health relation for both women and men. The only health risk behaviour that mediated the forgivenesshealth relation was physical fitness and this result was found for women only. Social support mediated several of the relationships between forgiveness and health but not others. Results were discussed with reference to the literature on forgiveness and health. Several directions for future research were offered, such as conducting longitudinal research designs to assess the direction of causality better, investigating moderator variables of the forgiveness-health relation, and building models, which incorporate multiple mediators using structural equation modelling techniques.

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The goal of this study was to examine the change, over a two year period, in mothers' reports of children's challenging behaviour and family conflict as they relate to change in parenting hassles (stress) among families who have preschool children with and without communication delays. Forty-four parent-child dyads participated in this Family Resource Project study that was funded by the Canadian Language and Literacy Research Network. Thirty-one ofthese families had preschool children with communication delays and 13 children were identified as not having communication delays. Child behaviour was evaluated using the Oppositional Subscale and ADHD Index of the Conners Parent Rating Scale (CPRS-R:S), the Conflict Subscale ofthe Family Environment Scale was used to examine family conflict, and the Parent Hassles Scale was used to examine parental stress. Results showed that change in mothers' daily hassles was influenced by change in their preschool children's ADHD behaviour and change in family conflict. Change in child oppositional behaviour did not predict change in mothers' hassles scores.

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The goal of the four studies that comprised this dissertation was to examine how spirituality/religiosity (SIR), as both an institutional and personal phenomenon, developed over time, and how its institutional (i.e., religious activity involvement) and personal (i.e., sense of connection with the sacred) components were uniquely linked with psychosocial adjustment. In Study 1, the differential longitudinal correlates of religious service attendance, as compared to involvement in other clubs, were evaluated with a sample of adolescents (n=1050) who completed a survey in grades 9, 11 and 12. Religious attendance and involvement in non-religious clubs were uniquely associated with positive adjustment in terms of lower substance use and better academic marks, particularly when involvement was sustained over time. In Study 2, the direction of effects was tested for the association between religious versus non-religious activities and both substance use and academic marks. Participants (n= 3993) were surveyed in grades 9 through 12. Higher religious attendance (but not non-religious club involvement) in one grade predicted lower levels of substance use in the next grade. Higher levels of nonreligious club involvement (but not religious service attendance) in one grade predicted higher academic achievement in the next grade, and higher academic achievement in one grade predicted more frequent non-religious club involvement in the next grade. The results suggest that different assets may be fostered in religious as compared to nonreligious activities, and, specifically, religious activity involvement may be important for the avoidance of substance use. The goal of Study 3 was to assess the unique associations between the institutional versus personal dimensions of SIR and a wide range of domains of psychosocial adjustment (namely, intrapersonal well-being, substance use, risk attitudes, parental relationship quality, academic orientation, and club involvement), and to examine the direction of effects in these associations. Participants (n=756) completed a survey in grades 11 and 12. Personal and institutional dimensions of SIR were differentially associated with adjustment, but it may only be in the domain of risk-taking (Le., risk attitudes, substance use) that SIR may predict positive adjustment over time. Finally, in Study 4, the goal was to examine how institutional and personal aspects of SIR developed within individual adolescents. Configurations of mUltiple dimensions of spirituality/religiosity were identified across 2 time points with an empirical classification procedure (cluster analysis), and sample- and individual-level development in these configurations were assessed. A five cluster-solution was optimal at both grades. Clusters were identified as aspirituallirreligious, disconnected wonderers, high institutional and personal, primarily personal, and meditators. With the exception of the high institutional and personal cluster, the cluster structures were stable over time. There also was significant intraindividual stability in all clusters over time; however, a significant proportion of individuals classified as high institutional and personal in Grade 11 moved into the primarily personal cluster in Grade 12. This program of research represented an important step towards addressing some of the limitations within the body of literature; namely, the uniqueness of religious activity involvement as a structured club, the differential link between institutional versus personal SIR and psychosocial adjustment, the direction of effects in the associations between institutional versus personal SIR and adjustment, and the way in which different dimensions of SIR may be configured and develop within individual adolescents over time.