Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Good results for early treatment of clinically isolated syndrome prior to multiple sclerosis with interferon beta-1b and glatiramer

Background: The first sign of developing multiple sclerosis is a clinically isolated syndrome that resembles a multiple sclerosis relapse. Objective/methods: The objective was to review the clinical trials of two medicines in clinically isolated syndromes (interferon β and glatiramer acetate) to determine whether they prevent progression to definite multiple sclerosis. Results: In the BENEFIT trial, after 2 years, 45% of subjects in the placebo group developed clinically definite multiple sclerosis, and the rate was lower in the interferon β-1b group. Then all subjects were offered interferon β-1b, and the original interferon β-1b group became the early treatment group, and the placebo group became the delayed treatment group. After 5 years, the number of subjects with clinical definite multiple sclerosis remained lower in the early treatment than late treatment group. In the PreCISe trial, after 2 years, the time for 25% of the subjects to convert to definite multiple sclerosis was prolonged in the glatiramer group. Conclusions: Interferon β-1b and glatiramer acetate slow the progression of clinically isolated syndromes to definite multiple sclerosis. However, it is not known whether this early treatment slows the progression to the physical disabilities experienced in multiple sclerosis.

Transcutaneous immunization with novel lipid-based adjuvants induces protection against gastric Helicobacter pylori infection

The development of vaccines to combat pathogens that infect across mucosal surfaces has been a major goal of vaccine research. Successful mucosal vaccination requires the co-administration of adjuvants that can overcome the state of immune tolerance normally associated with mucosal application of proteins. In the case of oral immunization, delivery systems are also required to protect vaccine antigens against destruction by gastric pH and digestive enzymes. Furthermore, adjuvants used for mucosal delivery must be free of neurotoxic effects like those induced by the commonly used experimental mucosal adjuvant cholera toxin. Maintenance of the "cold chain" is also essential for the effectiveness of any vaccine and adjuvants/delivery systems that enhance the stability of a vaccine would offer a significant advantage. Needle-free methods of vaccination that induce protective immunity at multiple mucosal surfaces are also desirable for rapid vaccination of large populations. In the present study we show that transcutaneous immunization (TCI) using Lipid C, a novel lipid-based matrix originally developed for oral immunization, containing soluble Helicobacter sonicate significantly reduces the gastric bacterial burden in mice following gastric challenge with live Helicobacter pylori. Protection is associated with the production of splenic gamma interferon and gastric IgA and was achieved without the co-administration of potent and potentially toxic adjuvants, although protection was further enhanced by inclusion of CpG-ODN and cholera toxin in the lipid delivery system.

HIV-1 subtype C Pr55gag virus-like particle vaccine efficiently boosts baboons primed with a matched DNA vaccine

A DNA vaccine expressing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) southern African subtype C Gag (pTHGag) and a recombinant baculovirus Pr55gag virus-like particle prepared using a subtype C Pr55gag protein (Gag VLP) was tested in a prime-boost inoculation regimen in Chacma baboons. The response of five baboons to Gag peptides in a gamma interferon (IFN-γ) enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISPOT) assay after three pTHGag immunizations ranged from 100 to 515 spot-forming units (s.f.u.) per 106 peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), whilst the response of two baboons to the Gag VLP vaccine ranged from 415 to 465 s.f.u. per 106 PBMCs. An increase in the Gag-specific response to a range of 775-3583 s.f.u. per 106 PBMCs was achieved by boosting with Gag VLPs the five baboons that were primed with pTHGag. No improvement in Gag responses was achieved in this prime-boost inoculation regimen by increasing the number of pTHGag inoculations to six. IFN-γ responses were mapped to several peptides, some of which have been reported to be targeted by PBMCs from HIV-1 subtype C-infected individuals. Gag VLPs, given as a single-modality regimen, induced a predominantly CD8+ T-cell IFN-γ response and interleukin-2 was a major cytokine within a mix of predominantly Th1 cytokines produced by a DNA-VLP prime-boost modality. The prime-boost inoculation regimen induced high serum p24 antibody titres in all baboons, which were several fold above that induced by the individual vaccines. Overall, this study demonstrated that these DNA prime/VLP boost vaccine regimens are highly immunogenic in baboons, inducing high-magnitude and broad multifunctional responses, providing support for the development of these products for clinical trials. © 2008 SGM.

Bovine colostrum modulates cytokine production in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells stimulated with lipopolysaccharide and phytohemagglutinin

Bovine colostrum has been shown to influence the cytokine production of bovine leukocytes. However, it remains unknown whether processed bovine colostrum, a supplement popular among athletes to enhance immune function, is able to modulate cytokine secretion of human lymphocytes and monocytes. The aim of this investigation was to determine the influence of a commercially available bovine colostrum protein concentrate (CPC) to stimulate cytokine production by human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). Blood was sampled from four healthy male endurance athletes who had abstained from exercise for 48 h. PBMCs were separated and cultured with bovine CPC concentrations of 0 (control), 1.25, 2.5, and 5% with and without lipopolysaccharide (LPS) (3 microg/mL) and phytohemagglutinin (PHA) (2.5 microg/mL). Cell supernatants were collected at 6 and 24 h of culture for the determination of tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interferon (IFN)-gamma, interleukin (IL)-10, IL-6, IL-4, and IL-2 concentrations. Bovine CPC significantly stimulated the release of IFN-gamma, IL-10, and IL-2 (p < 0.03). The addition of LPS to PBMCs cocultured with bovine CPC significantly stimulated the release of IL-2 and inhibited the early release of TNF, IL-6, and IL-4 (p < 0.02). Phytohemagglutinin stimulation in combination with bovine CPC significantly increased the secretion of IL-10 and IL-2 at 6 h of culture and inhibited IFN-gamma and TNF (p < 0.05). This data show that a commercial bovine CPC is able to modulate in vitro cytokine production of human PBMCs. Alterations in cytokine secretion may be a potential mechanism for reported benefits associated with supplementation.