784 resultados para Health models
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Includes bibliography
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Background: How to maintain gut health is a goal for scientists throughout the world. Therefore, microbiota management models for testing probiotics, prebiotics, and synbiotics have been developed.Methods: The SHIME® model was used to study the effect of Lactobacillus acidophilus 1014 on the fermentation pattern of the colon microbiota. Initially, an inoculum prepared from human feces was introduced into the reactor vessels and stabilized over 2-wk using a culture medium. This stabilization period was followed by a 2-wk control period during which the microbiota was monitored. The microbiota was then subjected to a 4-wk treatment period by adding 5 mL of sterile peptone water with L. acidophilus CRL1014 at the concentration of 108 CFU/mL to vessel one (the stomach compartment). Plate counts, Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE), short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) and ammonium analyses were carried out for monitoring of the microbial community from the colon compartments.Results: A significant increase (p < 0.01) in the Lactobacillus spp. and Bifidobacterium spp. populations was observed during the treatment period. The DGGE obtained showed changes in the lactobacilli community from the colon compartments of the SHIME® reactor. The (SCFA) concentration increased (p < 0.01) during the treatment period, due mainly to significant increased levels of acetic, butyric, and propionic acids. However, ammonium concentrations decreased during the same period (p < 0.01).Conclusions: This study showed the beneficial influence of L. acidophilus CRL 1014 on microbial metabolism and lactobacilli community composition for improving human health. © 2013 Sivieri et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
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This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Jamaica to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Jamaica. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The outcomes from investigating the agriculture sector indicate that for the sugar-cane subsector the harvests under both the A2 and B2 scenarios decrease at first and then increase as the mid-century mark is approached. With respect to the yam subsector the results indicate that the yield of yam will increase from 17.4 to 23.1 tonnes per hectare (33%) under the A2 scenario, and 18.4 to 23.9 (30%) tonnes per hectare under the B2 scenario over the period 2011 to 2050. Similar to the forecasts for yam, the results for escallion suggest that yields will continue to increase to mid-century. Adaptation in the sugar cane sub-sector could involve replanting and irrigation that appear to generate net benefits at the three selected discount rates for the A2 scenario, but only at a discount rate of 1% for the B2 scenario. For yam and escallion, investment in irrigation will earn significant net benefits for both the A2 and B2 scenarios at the three selected rates of discount. It is recommended that if adaptation strategies are part of a package of strategies for improving efficiency and hence enhancing competitiveness, then the yields of each crop can be raised sufficiently to warrant investment in adaptation to climate change. The analysis of the health sector demonstrates the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the future health systems in Jamaica, something that that will only compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. The results clearly show that the incidence of dengue fever will increase if climate change continues unabated, with more cases projected for the A2 scenario than the B2. The models predicted a decrease in the incidence of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis with climate change, indicating that Jamaica will benefit from climate change with a reduction in the number of cases of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis. Due to the long time horizon anticipated for climate change, Jamaica should start implementing adaptation strategies focused on the health sector by promoting an enabling environment, strengthening communities, strengthening the monitoring, surveillance and response systems and integrating adaptation into development plans and actions. Small-island developing states like Jamaica must be proactive in implementing adaptation strategies, which will reduce the risk of climate change. On the global stage the country must continue to agitate for the implementation of the mitigation strategies for developed countries as outlined in the Kyoto protocol. The results regarding the tourism sector suggest that the sector is likely to incur losses due to climate change, the most significant of which is under the A2 scenario. Climatic features, such as temperature and precipitation, will affect the demand for tourism in Jamaica. By 2050 the industry is expected to lose US$ 132.2 million and 106.1 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In addition to changes in the climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects from extreme events and acidification of the ocean. The expected loss from extreme events is projected to be approximately US$ 5.48 billion (A2) and US$ 4.71 billion (B2). Even more devastating is the effect of ocean acidification on the tourism sector. The analysis shows that US$ 7.95 billion (A2) and US$ 7.04 billion is expected to be lost by mid-century. The benefit-cost analysis indicates that most of the adaptation strategies are expected to produce negative net benefits, and it is highly likely that the cost burden would have to be carried by the state. The options that generated positive ratios were: redesigning and retrofitting all relevant tourism facilities, restoring corals and educating the public and developing rescue and evacuation plans. Given the relative importance of tourism to the macroeconomy one possible option is to seek assistance from multilateral funding agencies. It is recommended that the government first undertake a detailed analysis of the vulnerability of each sector and, in particular tourism, to climate change. Further, more realistic socio-economic scenarios should be developed so as to inform future benefit-cost analysis.
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Drug addiction has serious health and social consequences. In the last 50 years, a wide range of techniques have been developed to model specific aspects of drug-taking behaviors and have greatly contributed to the understanding of the neurobiological basis of drug abuse and addiction. In the last two decades, new models have been proposed in an attempt to capture the more genuine aspects of addiction-like behaviors in laboratory animals. The goal of the present review is to provide an overview of the preclinical procedures used to study drug abuse and dependence and describe recent progress that has been made in studying more specific aspects of addictive behavior in animals.
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This was a qualitative study with the purpose of designing a meta-model for the work process of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) team. It was based on the experience of six sample groups, composed of their members (physicians, professional nurses, dentists, dental assistants, licensed technical nurses and community health agents) in a city in São Paulo state, Brazil, totaling 54 subjects. Six theoretical models emerged from non-directive interviews. These were analyzed according to Grounded Theory and submitted to the meta-synthesis strategy, which produced the meta-model between the processes of strengthening and weakening of the FHS model: professional-team-community reciprocity as an intervening component. When analyzed in light of the Theory of Complexity (TC), it showed to be a work with a vertical and authoritarian tendency, which is largely hegemonic in the tradition of public health care policies.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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When an appropriate fish host is selected, analysis of its parasites offers a useful, reliable, economical, telescoped indication or monitor of environmental health. The value of that information increases when corroborated by another non-parasitological technique. The analysis of parasites is not necessarily simple because not all hosts serve as good models and because the number of species, presence of specific species, intensity of infections, life histories of species, location of species in hosts, and host response for each parasitic species have to be addressed individually to assure usefulness of the tool. Also, different anthropogenic contaminants act in a distinct manner relative to hosts, parasites, and each other as well as being influenced by natural environmental conditions. Total values for all parasitic species infecting a sample cannot necessarily be grouped together. For example, an abundance of numbers of either species or individuals can indicate either a healthy or an unhealthy environment, depending on the species of parasite. Moreover, depending on the parasitic species, its infection, and the time chosen for collection/examination, the assessment may indicate a chronic or acute state of the environmental health. For most types of analyses, the host should be one that has a restricted home range, can be infected by numerous species of parasites, many of which have a variety of additional hosts in their life cycles, and can be readily sampled. Data on parasitic infections in the western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis), a fish that meets the criteria in two separate studies, illustrate the usefulness of that host as a model to indicate both healthy and detrimentally influenced environments. In those studies, species richness, intensity of select species, host resistance, other hosts involved in life cycles, and other factors all relate to site and contaminating discharge.
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Purpose--The paper theoretically and empirically investigates the impact on human capital investment decisions and income growth of lowered life expectancy as a result of HIV/AIDS and other diseases. Design/methodology/approach--The theoretical model is a three-period overlapping generations model where individuals go through three stages in their life, namely, young, adult and old. The model extends existing theoretical models by allowing the probability of premature death to differ for individuals at different life stage, and by allowing for stochastic technological advances. The empirical investigation focuses on the effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and on the role of health on educational investments and growth. We address potential endogeneity by using various strategies, such as controlling for country specific time-invariant unobservables and by using the male circumcision rate as an instrumental variable for HIV/AIDS prevalence. Findings--We show theoretically that an increased probability of premature death leads to less investment in human capital, and consequently slower growth. Empirically we show that HIV/AIDS has resulted in a substantial decline in life expectancy in African countries and these falling life expectancies are indeed associated with lower educational attainment and slower economic growth world wide. Originality/value--The theoretical and empirical findings reveal a causal link flowing from health to growth, which has been largely overlooked by the existing literature. The main implication is that health investments, that decrease the incidence of diseases like HIV/AIDS resulting on increases in life expectancy, through its complementarity with human capital investments lead to long run growth..
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The aim of this article is to evaluate whether there is an association between decentralization and corruption. In order to do so we analyse Brazilian health-care programmes that are run locally. To construct objective measures of corruption, we use the information from the reports of the auditing programme of the local governments of Brazil. Results point that there is no relationship between decentralization and corruption, whatever the measure of decentralization used.
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We extend the random permutation model to obtain the best linear unbiased estimator of a finite population mean accounting for auxiliary variables under simple random sampling without replacement (SRS) or stratified SRS. The proposed method provides a systematic design-based justification for well-known results involving common estimators derived under minimal assumptions that do not require specification of a functional relationship between the response and the auxiliary variables.
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Purpose: To test the association between income inequality and elderly self-rated health and to propose a pathway to explain the relationship. Methods: We analyzed a sample of 2143 older individuals (60 years of age and over) from 49 distritos of the Municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Bayesian multilevel logistic models were performed with poor self-rated health as the outcome variable. Results: Income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) was found to be associated with poor self-rated health after controlling for age, sex, income and education (odds ratio, 1.19; 95% credible interval, 1.01-1.38). When the practice of physical exercise and homicide rate were added to the model, the Gini coefficient lost its statistical significance (P>.05). We fitted a structural equation model in which income inequality affects elderly health by a pathway mediated by violence and practice of physical exercise. Conclusions: The health of older individuals may be highly susceptible to the socioeconomic environment of residence, specifically to the local distribution of income. We propose that this association may be mediated by fear of violence and lack of physical activity. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Objective: The aim of this study was to assess re-hospitalization rates of individuals with psychosis and bipolar disorder and to study determinants of readmission. Methods: Prospective observational study, conducted in Sao Paulo, Brazil. One hundred-sixty-nine individuals with bipolar and psychotic disorder in need of hospitalization in the public mental health system were followed for 12 months after discharge. Their families were contacted by telephone and interviews were conducted at 1, 2, 6 and 12 months post-discharge to evaluate readmission rates and factors related. Results: One-year re-hospitalization rate was of 42.6%. Physical restraint during hospital stay was a risk factor (OR = 5.4-10.5) for readmission in most models. Not attending consultations after discharge was related to the 12-month point readmission (OR = 8.5, 95% CI 2.3-31.2) and to the survival model (OR = 3.2, 95% CI 1.5-7.2). Number of previous admissions was a risk factor for the survival model (OR = 6.6-11.9). Family's agreement with permanent hospitalization of individuals with mental illness was the predictor associated to readmission in all models (OR = 3.5-10.9) and resulted in shorter survival time to readmission; those readmitted were stereotyped as dangerous and unhealthy. Conclusions: Family's stigma towards mental illness might contribute to the increase in readmission rates of their relatives with psychiatric disorders. More studies should be conducted to depict mechanisms by which stigma increases re-hospitalization rates.