A discussion of “Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events'' by Aaron Clauset and Ryan Woodard

The terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 appeared to be a harbinger of increased terrorism and violence in the 21st century, bringing terrorism and political violence to the forefront of public discussion. Questions about these events abound, and “Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Scale Terrorist Event” [Clauset and Woodard (2013)] asks specifically, “how rare are large scale terrorist events?” and, in general, encourages discussion on the role of quantitative methods in terrorism research and policy and decision-making. Answering the primary question raises two challenges. The first is identify- ing terrorist events. The second is finding a simple yet robust model for rare events that has good explanatory and predictive capabilities. The challenges of identifying terrorist events is acknowledged and addressed by reviewing and using data from two well-known and reputable sources: the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism-RAND database (MIPT-RAND) [Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism] and the Global Terror- ism Database (GTD) [National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2012), LaFree and Dugan (2007)]. Clauset and Woodard (2013) provide a detailed discussion of the limitations of the data and the models used, in the context of the larger issues surrounding terrorism and policy.

Accounting for forests in Fiji : the experience of Future Forests (Fiji) Limited

"in a world which is experiencing unprecedented deforestation and widespread global environmental threats there is something intuitively right about planting a tree" (Future Forests (Fiji) Limited) The above quote demonstrates that even in the wake of global environmental crisis that hope still remains and that humans can still control their destiny. This opportunity to effect positive environmental change is one of the main aims of the South Pacific Stock Exchange’s (SPSE) most recent publicly listed company: Future Forest (Fiji) Limited. Incorporated in 2004 and listed on SPSE in 2011, the company is Fiji’s first large-scale commercial hardwood forest plantation and nursery. Future Forest (FF) is the only company listed on the SPSE with biological assets or “living assets.” The accounting standard for biological assets is IAS 41: Agriculture. This standard prescribes the use of fair value as the basis of valuation. While a more relevant method of valuation, the application of fair value accounting can be more costly and burdensome for companies in developing economies (White 2008). In line with the journal’s theme of agriculture, this article explores the issues, challenges and potential benefits involved in applying fair value accounting for biological assets in a developing economy such as Fiji using the case of Future Forest (Fiji) Limited.

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Document ranking with quantum probabilities

In this thesis we investigate the use of quantum probability theory for ranking documents. Quantum probability theory is used to estimate the probability of relevance of a document given a user's query. We posit that quantum probability theory can lead to a better estimation of the probability of a document being relevant to a user's query than the common approach, i. e. the Probability Ranking Principle (PRP), which is based upon Kolmogorovian probability theory. Following our hypothesis, we formulate an analogy between the document retrieval scenario and a physical scenario, that of the double slit experiment. Through the analogy, we propose a novel ranking approach, the quantum probability ranking principle (qPRP). Key to our proposal is the presence of quantum interference. Mathematically, this is the statistical deviation between empirical observations and expected values predicted by the Kolmogorovian rule of additivity of probabilities of disjoint events in configurations such that of the double slit experiment. We propose an interpretation of quantum interference in the document ranking scenario, and examine how quantum interference can be effectively estimated for document retrieval. To validate our proposal and to gain more insights about approaches for document ranking, we (1) analyse PRP, qPRP and other ranking approaches, exposing the assumptions underlying their ranking criteria and formulating the conditions for the optimality of the two ranking principles, (2) empirically compare three ranking principles (i. e. PRP, interactive PRP, and qPRP) and two state-of-the-art ranking strategies in two retrieval scenarios, those of ad-hoc retrieval and diversity retrieval, (3) analytically contrast the ranking criteria of the examined approaches, exposing similarities and differences, (4) study the ranking behaviours of approaches alternative to PRP in terms of the kinematics they impose on relevant documents, i. e. by considering the extent and direction of the movements of relevant documents across the ranking recorded when comparing PRP against its alternatives. Our findings show that the effectiveness of the examined ranking approaches strongly depends upon the evaluation context. In the traditional evaluation context of ad-hoc retrieval, PRP is empirically shown to be better or comparable to alternative ranking approaches. However, when we turn to examine evaluation contexts that account for interdependent document relevance (i. e. when the relevance of a document is assessed also with respect to other retrieved documents, as it is the case in the diversity retrieval scenario) then the use of quantum probability theory and thus of qPRP is shown to improve retrieval and ranking effectiveness over the traditional PRP and alternative ranking strategies, such as Maximal Marginal Relevance, Portfolio theory, and Interactive PRP. This work represents a significant step forward regarding the use of quantum theory in information retrieval. It demonstrates in fact that the application of quantum theory to problems within information retrieval can lead to improvements both in modelling power and retrieval effectiveness, allowing the constructions of models that capture the complexity of information retrieval situations. Furthermore, the thesis opens up a number of lines for future research. These include: (1) investigating estimations and approximations of quantum interference in qPRP; (2) exploiting complex numbers for the representation of documents and queries, and; (3) applying the concepts underlying qPRP to tasks other than document ranking.

Standards and Research in Geographical Education: Current Trends and International Issues

What is the state of geographical education in the second decade of the 21st century? This volume presents a selection of peer reviewed papers presented at the 2012 Cologne Congress of the International Geographical Union (IGU) sessions on Geographical Education as representative of current thinking in the area. It then presents (perhaps for the first time) a cross-case analysis of the common factors of all these papers as a current summary of the “state of the art” of geographical education today. The primary aim of the individual authors as well as the editors is not only to record the current state of the art of geographical education but also to promote ongoing discussions of the longer term health and future prospects of international geographical education. We wish to encourage ongoing debate and discussion amongst local, national, regional and international education journals, conferences and discussion groups as part of the international mission of the Commission on Geographical Eduction. While the currency of these chapters in terms of their foci, breadth and recency of the theoretical literature on which they are based and the new research findings they present justifies considerable confidence in the current health of geographical education as an educational and research endeavour, each new publication should only be the start of new scholarly inquiry. Where should we, as a scholarly community, place our energies for the future? If readers are left with a new sense of direction, then the aims of the authors and editors will have been amply met.

Experimenting with the future of journalism : social capital as a desideratum for networked journalism research

The aim of this article is to position social capital as a theoretical framework for investigating online communities, specifically pro-am operations. It will review pertinent literature on social capital and the future of journalism in this context, and detail how the broader field of Sociology and this dynamic field of Journalism converge to produce a unique opportunity for pro-am research. Currently, much concern has been expressed regarding the future of journalism institutions in society, and while journalism itself is seen as a cornerstone of democracy, the form of structures that facilitate such practice has been questioned. Compounding this problem is a lack of research that produces data suitable for meta-analysis. For example, case-study data of start-up operations in this volatile field do not provide sufficient grounds for conclusions that could result in evidence-based policy. In response to these dynamics, this article will propose experimentation as a method of research for pro-am start-ups.

Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) Project TPACK Survey : summary of the key findings

This paper presents a summary of the key findings of the TTF TPACK Survey developed and administered for the Teaching the Teachers for the Future (TTF) Project implemented in 2011. The TTF Project, funded by an Australian Government ICT Innovation Fund grant, involved all 39 Australian Higher Education Institutions which provide initial teacher education. TTF data collections were undertaken at the end of Semester 1 (T1) and at the end of Semester 2 (T2) in 2011. A total of 12881 participants completed the first survey (T1) and 5809 participants completed the second survey (T2). Groups of like-named items from the T1 survey were subject to a battery of complementary data analysis techniques. The psychometric properties of the four scales: Confidence - teacher items; Usefulness - teacher items; Confidence - student items; Usefulness- student items, were confirmed both at T1 and T2. Among the key findings summarised, at the national level, the scale: Confidence to use ICT as a teacher showed measurable growth across the whole scale from T1 to T2, and the scale: Confidence to facilitate student use of ICT also showed measurable growth across the whole scale from T1 to T2. Additional key TTF TPACK Survey findings are summarised.

Teaching teachers for the future : how, what, why, and what next?

This paper contextualises the Teaching Teachers of the Future (TTF) Project and acts as a preamble for the TTF stream of papers at ACEC2012. It discusses the aims and objectives of the project, its genesis in a changing educational and political landscape, the use of TPACK as a theoretical scaffold, and briefly report on the operations of the various components and partners. Further, it will discuss the research opportunities afforded by the project including a national survey of all pre-service teachers in Australia gauging their TPACK confidence and the use of the Most Significant Change (MSC) methodology. Finally the paper will discuss the outcomes of the project and its future.

Stagnancy in Indonesia’s reformed state asset management policies and practices : a wicked problem?

The policies and regulations governing the practice of state asset management have emerged as an urgent question among many countries worldwide for there is heightened awareness of the complex and crucial role that state assets play in public service provision. Indonesia is an example of such country, introducing a ‘big-bang’ reform in state asset management laws, policies, regulations, and technical guidelines. Indonesia exemplified its enthusiasm in reforming state asset management policies and practices through the establishment of the Directorate General of State Assets in 2006. The Directorate General of State Assets have stressed the new direction that it is taking state asset management laws and policies through the introduction of Republic of Indonesia Law Number 38 Year 2008, which is an amended regulation overruling Republic of Indonesia Law Number 6 Year 2006 on Central/Regional Government State Asset Management. Law number 38/2008 aims to further exemplify good governance principles and puts forward a ‘the highest and best use of assets’ principle in state asset management. The purpose of this study is to explore and analyze specific contributing influences to state asset management practices, answering the question why innovative state asset management policy implementation is stagnant. The methodology of this study is that of qualitative case study approach, utilizing empirical data sample of four Indonesian regional governments. Through a thematic analytical approach this study provides an in-depth analysis of each influencing factors to state asset management reform. Such analysis suggests the potential of an ‘excuse rhetoric’; whereby the influencing factors identified are a smoke-screen, or are myths that public policy makers and implementers believe in, as a means to ex-plain stagnant implementation of innovative state asset management practice. Thus this study offers deeper insights of the intricate web that influences state as-set management innovative policies to state asset management policy makers; to be taken into consideration in future policy writing.

Woman abuse in Canada : sociological reflections on the past, suggestions for the future

Woman abuse in Canada started receiving much sociological attention in the mid-1980s. This article describes past scholarly achievements, assesses current contributions, and suggests progressive ways of responding to future challenges. Special attention is given to how broader political economic forces help shape and constrain research on a variety of highly injurious male-to-female assaults that occur in private settings.

THE quest for alpha : can artificial neural networks help?

The application of artificial neural networks (ANN) in finance is relatively new area of research. We employed ANNs that used both fundamental and technical inputs to predict future prices of widely held Australian stocks and used these predicted prices for stock portfolio selection over a 10-year period (2001-2011). We found that the ANNs generally do well in predicting the direction of stock price movements. The stock portfolios selected by the ANNs with median accuracy are able to generate positive alpha over the 10-year period. More importantly, we found that a portfolio based on randomly selected network configuration had zero chance of resulting in a significantly negative alpha but a 27% chance of yielding a significantly positive alpha. This is in stark contrast to the findings of the research on mutual fund performance where active fund managers with negative alphas outnumber those with positive alphas.

Living City 2013 Workshop

Living City 2013 Workshop, as part of a school term’s design-based curriculum connected to the KGSC/QUT Design Excellence Program and run from 11 February – 1 May, 2013, was essentially a three-day place-based urban design immersion workshop program for 25 Year 11 Visual Art and Design Students and 2 Teachers from Kelvin Grove State College (KGSC) held at both Queensland University of Technology (QUT) Gardens Point Campus and The Edge, State Library of Queensland. Mentored by 4 design professionals, 2 tertiary design academics, 2 public artists, and 12 QUT tertiary design students, the workshop explored youth-inspired public space design solutions for the active Brisbane City Council redevelopment site of Queens Wharf Road precinct. As well as the face-to-face workshops, for Living City 2013, an interactive web environment was introduced to enable students to connect with each other and program mentors throughout the course of the program. The workshop, framed within notions of ecological, economic, social and cultural sustainability, aimed to raise awareness of the layered complexity and perspectives involved in the design of shared city spaces and to encourage young people to voice their own concerns as future citizens about the shape and direction of their city. The program commenced with an introductory student briefing by stakeholders and mentors at KGSC on 11 February, an introduction to site appraisal and site visit held at QUT and Queens Wharf Road on 20 February, and a follow up site analysis session on 6 March. Day 1 Workshop on April 17 at the Edge, State Library of Queensland, as part of the Design Minds partnership (http://designminds.org.au/kelvin-grove-state-college-excellence-in-art-design/), focused on mentoring team development of a concept design for a range of selected sites. Two workshops on April 22 and 23 at QUT, to develop these designs and presentation schemes, followed this. The workshop program culminated in a visual presentation of concept design ideas and discussion with a public audience in the Ideas Gallery on The Deck, King George Square during the Brisbane City Council City Centre Master Plan Ideas Fiesta on 1 May, 2013, as referenced in the Ideas Fiesta Wrap-up Report (http://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/planning-building/planning-guidelines-tools/city-centre-master-plan/city-centre-master-plan-ideas-fiesta). Students were introduced to design methodology, team thinking strategies, the scope of design practices and professions, presentation skills and post-secondary pathways, while participating teachers acquired content and design learning strategies transferable in many other contexts. The program was fully documented on the Living City website (http://www.livingcity.net.au/LC2013x/index.html) and has been recognised by the Brisbane City Council Youth Strategy 2014-2019 as a best practice model for making Brisbane a well-designed, subtropical city.

Cents and Sustainability : Securing Our Common Future by Decoupling Economic Growth from Environmental Pressures

The focus of Cents and Sustainability is to respond to the call by Dr Gro Brundtland in the seminal book Our Common Future to achieve, 'a new era of economic growth - growth that is forceful and at the same time socially and environmentally sustainable'. With the 20th anniversary of Our Common Future in 2007, it is clearly time to re-examine this important work in a modern global context. Using the framework of ‘Decoupling Economic Growth from Environmental Pressures’, Cents and Sustainability investigates a range of new evidence and research in order to develop a deeper understanding of how, and under what conditions, this 'forceful sustainable growth' is possible. With an introduction by Dr Jim MacNeill (former Secretary General to the Brundtland Commission, and former Director, OECD Environment Directorate 1978 -1984), the book will carry forewords from Dr Gro Brundtland (former Chair of the World Commission on Environment and Development), Dr Rajendra Pachauri (Chief, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and joint recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of the IPCC), and Dr Kenneth Ruffing (former Deputy Director and Chief Economist of the OECD Environment Directorate 2000 - 2005). Beginning with a detailed explanation of decoupling theory, along with investigation into a range of issues and barriers to its achievement, the book then focuses on informing national strategies for decoupling. Then putting this into action the book focuses on five key areas of decoupling, namely greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, freshwater extraction, waste production, and air pollution, and in each case showing compelling evidence for significant cost effective reductions in environmental pressures. The book concludes with a detailed case study of the groundbreaking application of public interest litigation to combat air pollution in Delhi, India.

In-vehicle extremity injuries from improvised explosive devices : current and future foci

The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have been epitomized by the insurgents’ use of the improvised explosive device against vehicle-borne security forces. These weapons, capable of causing multiple severely injured casualties in a single incident, pose the most prevalent single threat to Coalition troops operating in the region. Improvements in personal protection and medical care have resulted in increasing numbers of casualties surviving with complex lower limb injuries, often leading to long-term disability. Thus, there exists an urgent requirement to investigate and mitigate against the mechanism of extremity injury caused by these devices. This will necessitate an ontological approach, linking molecular, cellular and tissue interaction to physiological dysfunction. This can only be achieved via a collaborative approach between clinicians, natural scientists and engineers, combining physical and numerical modelling tools with clinical data from the battlefield. In this article, we compile existing knowledge on the effects of explosions on skeletal injury, review and critique relevant experimental and computational research related to lower limb injury and damage and propose research foci required to drive the development of future mitigation technologies.