Qualitative and quantitative formal model-based safety analysis : push the safety button

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2011

proxel-based method : formalisation, analysis and applications

Simulation, modelling, proxels, PDEs, Markov chains, Petri nets, stochastic, performability, transient analysis

Human rights education and advancing the mission of human rights NGOs : an analysis based on case studies of amnesty International's efforts in ten countries

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Humanwiss., Diss., 2012

Citation-based Plagiarism Detection : applying citation pattern analysis to identify currently non-machine-detectible disguised plagiarism in scientific publications

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2013

Which screening strategy using BMD measurements would be most cost effective for hip fracture prevention in elderly women? A decision analysis based on a Markov model.

INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures are responsible for excessive mortality, decreasing the 5-year survival rate by about 20%. From an economic perspective, they represent a major source of expense, with direct costs in hospitalization, rehabilitation, and institutionalization. The incidence rate sharply increases after the age of 70, but it can be reduced in women aged 70-80 years by therapeutic interventions. Recent analyses suggest that the most efficient strategy is to implement such interventions in women at the age of 70 years. As several guidelines recommend bone mineral density (BMD) screening of postmenopausal women with clinical risk factors, our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of two screening strategies applied to elderly women aged 70 years and older. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using decision-tree analysis and a Markov model. Two alternative strategies, one measuring BMD of all women, and one measuring BMD only of those having at least one risk factor, were compared with the reference strategy "no screening". Cost-effectiveness ratios were measured as cost per year gained without hip fracture. Most probabilities were based on data observed in EPIDOS, SEMOF and OFELY cohorts. RESULTS: In this model, which is mostly based on observed data, the strategy "screen all" was more cost effective than "screen women at risk." For one woman screened at the age of 70 and followed for 10 years, the incremental (additional) cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies compared with the reference was 4,235 euros and 8,290 euros, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this model, under the assumptions described in the paper, suggest that in women aged 70-80 years, screening all women with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) would be more effective than no screening or screening only women with at least one risk factor. Cost-effectiveness studies based on decision-analysis trees maybe useful tools for helping decision makers, and further models based on different assumptions should be performed to improve the level of evidence on cost-effectiveness ratios of the usual screening strategies for osteoporosis.

Quantifying consistency of Event Related Potentials across subjects based on single-trial topographic analysis

Introduction: Non-invasive brain imaging techniques often contrast experimental conditions across a cohort of participants, obfuscating distinctions in individual performance and brain mechanisms that are better characterised by the inter-trial variability. To overcome such limitations, we developed topographic analysis methods for single-trial EEG data [1]. So far this was typically based on time-frequency analysis of single-electrode data or single independent components. The method's efficacy is demonstrated for event-related responses to environmental sounds, hitherto studied at an average event-related potential (ERP) level. Methods: Nine healthy subjects participated to the experiment. Auditory meaningful sounds of common objects were used for a target detection task [2]. On each block, subjects were asked to discriminate target sounds, which were living or man-made auditory objects. Continuous 64-channel EEG was acquired during the task. Two datasets were considered for each subject including single-trial of the two conditions, living and man-made. The analysis comprised two steps. In the first part, a mixture of Gaussians analysis [3] provided representative topographies for each subject. In the second step, conditional probabilities for each Gaussian provided statistical inference on the structure of these topographies across trials, time, and experimental conditions. Similar analysis was conducted at group-level. Results: Results show that the occurrence of each map is structured in time and consistent across trials both at the single-subject and at group level. Conducting separate analyses of ERPs at single-subject and group levels, we could quantify the consistency of identified topographies and their time course of activation within and across participants as well as experimental conditions. A general agreement was found with previous analysis at average ERP level. Conclusions: This novel approach to single-trial analysis promises to have impact on several domains. In clinical research, it gives the possibility to statistically evaluate single-subject data, an essential tool for analysing patients with specific deficits and impairments and their deviation from normative standards. In cognitive neuroscience, it provides a novel tool for understanding behaviour and brain activity interdependencies at both single-subject and at group levels. In basic neurophysiology, it provides a new representation of ERPs and promises to cast light on the mechanisms of its generation and inter-individual variability.

Trends of pre-hospital emergency medical services activity over 10 years : a population-based registry analysis

BACKGROUND: The number of requests to pre-hospital emergency medical services (PEMS) has increased in Europe over the last 20 years, but epidemiology of PEMS interventions has little be investigated. The aim of this analysis was to describe time trends of PEMS activity in a region of western Switzerland. METHODS: Use of data routinely and prospectively collected for PEMS intervention in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland, from 2001 to 2010. This Swiss Canton comprises approximately 10% of the whole Swiss population. RESULTS: We observed a 40% increase in the number of requests to PEMS between 2001 and 2010. The overall rate of requests was 35/1000 inhabitants for ambulance services and 10/1000 for medical interventions (SMUR), with the highest rate among people aged ≥ 80. Most frequent reasons for the intervention were related to medical problems, predominantly unconsciousness, chest pain respiratory distress, or cardiac arrest, whereas severe trauma interventions decreased over time. Overall, 89% were alive after 48 h. The survival rate after 48 h increased regularly for cardiac arrest or myocardial infarction. CONCLUSION: Routine prospective data collection of prehospital emergency interventions and monitoring of activity was feasible over time. The results we found add to the understanding of determinants of PEMS use and need to be considered to plan use of emergency health services in the near future. More comprehensive analysis of the quality of services and patient safety supported by indicators are also required, which might help to develop prehospital emergency services and new processes of care.

Pharmacogenetics-based population pharmacokinetic analysis of efavirenz in HIV-1-infected individuals.

Besides CYP2B6, other polymorphic enzymes contribute to efavirenz (EFV) interindividual variability. This study was aimed at quantifying the impact of multiple alleles on EFV disposition. Plasma samples from 169 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients characterized for CYP2B6, CYP2A6, and CYP3A4/5 allelic diversity were used to build up a population pharmacokinetic model using NONMEM (non-linear mixed effects modeling), the aim being to seek a general approach combining genetic and demographic covariates. Average clearance (CL) was 11.3 l/h with a 65% interindividual variability that was explained largely by CYP2B6 genetic variation (31%). CYP2A6 and CYP3A4 had a prominent influence on CL, mostly when CYP2B6 was impaired. Pharmacogenetics fully accounted for ethnicity, leaving body weight as the only significant demographic factor influencing CL. Square roots of the numbers of functional alleles best described the influence of each gene, without interaction. Functional genetic variations in both principal and accessory metabolic pathways demonstrate a joint impact on EFV disposition. Therefore, dosage adjustment in accordance with the type of polymorphism (CYP2B6, CYP2A6, or CYP3A4) is required in order to maintain EFV within the therapeutic target levels.

Eumelanin-based coloration and fitness parameters in birds: a meta-analysis

Although melanin is the most common pigment in animal integuments, the adaptive function of variation in melanin-based coloration remains poorly understood. The individual fitness returns associated with melanin pigments can be variable across species as these pigments can have physical and biological protective properties and genes involved in melanogenesis may vary in the intensity of pleiotropic effects. Moreover, dark and pale coloration can also enhance camouflage in alternative habitats and melanin-based coloration can be involved in social interactions. We investigated whether darker or paler individuals achieve a higher fitness in birds, a taxon wherein associations between melanin-based coloration and fitness parameters have been studied in a large number of species. A meta-analysis showed that the degree of melanin-based coloration was not significantly associated with laying date, clutch size, brood size, and survival across 26 species. Similar results were found when restricting the analyses to non-sexually dimorphic birds, colour polymorphic and monomorphic species, in passerines and non-passerines and in species for which inter-individual variation in melanism is due to colour intensity. However, eumelanic coloration was positively associated with clutch and brood size in sexually dimorphic species and those that vary in the size of black patches, respectively. Given that greater extent of melanin-based coloration was positively associated with reproductive parameters and survival in some species but negatively in other species, we conclude that in birds the sign and magnitude of selection exerted on melanin-based coloration is species- or trait-specific.

A Modulated Closed Form solution for Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping - A thorough evaluation and comparison to iterative methods based on edge prior knowledge.

The aim of this study is to perform a thorough comparison of quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) techniques and their dependence on the assumptions made. The compared methodologies were: two iterative single orientation methodologies minimizing the l2, l1TV norm of the prior knowledge of the edges of the object, one over-determined multiple orientation method (COSMOS) and anewly proposed modulated closed-form solution (MCF). The performance of these methods was compared using a numerical phantom and in-vivo high resolution (0.65mm isotropic) brain data acquired at 7T using a new coil combination method. For all QSM methods, the relevant regularization and prior-knowledge parameters were systematically changed in order to evaluate the optimal reconstruction in the presence and absence of a ground truth. Additionally, the QSM contrast was compared to conventional gradient recalled echo (GRE) magnitude and R2* maps obtained from the same dataset. The QSM reconstruction results of the single orientation methods show comparable performance. The MCF method has the highest correlation (corrMCF=0.95, r(2)MCF =0.97) with the state of the art method (COSMOS) with additional advantage of extreme fast computation time. The l-curve method gave the visually most satisfactory balance between reduction of streaking artifacts and over-regularization with the latter being overemphasized when the using the COSMOS susceptibility maps as ground-truth. R2* and susceptibility maps, when calculated from the same datasets, although based on distinct features of the data, have a comparable ability to distinguish deep gray matter structures.

Stability analysis of the 2007 Chehalis lake landslide based on long-range terrestrial photogrammetry and airborne LIDAR data

On December 4th 2007, a 3-Mm3 landslide occurred along the northwestern shore of Chehalis Lake. The initiation zone is located at the intersection of the main valley slope and the northern sidewall of a prominent gully. The slope failure caused a displacement wave that ran up to 38 m on the opposite shore of the lake. The landslide is temporally associated with a rain-on-snow meteorological event which is thought to have triggered it. This paper describes the Chehalis Lake landslide and presents a comparison of discontinuity orientation datasets obtained using three techniques: field measurements, terrestrial photogrammetric 3D models and an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model to describe the orientation and characteristics of the five discontinuity sets present. The discontinuity orientation data are used to perform kinematic, surface wedge limit equilibrium and three-dimensional distinct element analyses. The kinematic and surface wedge analyses suggest that the location of the slope failure (intersection of the valley slope and a gully wall) has facilitated the development of the unstable rock mass which initiated as a planar sliding failure. Results from the three-dimensional distinct element analyses suggest that the presence, orientation and high persistence of a discontinuity set dipping obliquely to the slope were critical to the development of the landslide and led to a failure mechanism dominated by planar sliding. The three-dimensional distinct element modelling also suggests that the presence of a steeply dipping discontinuity set striking perpendicular to the slope and associated with a fault exerted a significant control on the volume and extent of the failed rock mass but not on the overall stability of the slope.

Dosing regimen of gentamicin in neonates: evaluation of current guidelines based on a large population pharmacokinetic analysis

Objectives: Gentamicin is among the most commonly prescribed antibiotics in newborns, but large interindividual variability in exposure levels exists. Based on a population pharmacokinetic analysis of a cohort of unselected neonates, we aimed to validate current dosing recommendations from a recent reference guideline (Neofax®). Methods: From 3039 concentrations collected in 994 preterm (median gestational age 32.3 weeks, range 24.2-36.5) and 455 term newborns, treated at the University Hospital of Lausanne between 2006 and 2011, a population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed with NONMEM®. Model-based simulations were used to assess the ability of dosing regimens to bring concentrations into targets: trough ≤ 1mg/L and peak ~ 8mg/L. Results: A two-compartment model best characterized gentamicin pharmacokinetics. Model parameters are presented in the table. Body weight, gestational age and postnatal age positively influence clearance, which decreases under dopamine administration. Body weight and gestational age influence the distribution volume. Model based simulations confirm that preterm infants need doses superior to 4 mg/kg, and extended dosage intervals, up to 48 hours for very preterm newborns, whereas most term newborns would achieve adequate exposure under 4 mg/kg q. 24 h. More than 90% of neonates would achieve trough concentrations below 2 mg/L and peaks above 6 mg/L following most recent guidelines. Conclusions: Simulated gentamicin exposure demonstrates good accordance with recent dosing recommendations for target concentration achievement.

Analysis of parity between protein-based electrophoretic methods for the characterization of oral Candida species

Electrophoretic studies of multilocus-enzymes (MLEE) and whole-cell protein (SDS-PAGE) were carried out in order to evaluate the parity between different methods for the characterization of five Candida species commonly isolated from oral cavity of humans by numerical taxonomy methods. The obtained data revealed that sodium dodecyl sulfate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis is more efficient in grouping strains in their respective species while MLEE has much limited resolution in organizing all strains in their respective species-specific clusters. MLEE technique must be regarded for surveys in which just one species of Candida is involved.

Meta-analysis based SVM classification enables accurate detection of Alzheimer's disease across different clinical centers using FDG-PET and MRI.

The application of support vector machine classification (SVM) to combined information from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and [F18]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) has been shown to improve detection and differentiation of Alzheimer's disease dementia (AD) and frontotemporal lobar degeneration. To validate this approach for the most frequent dementia syndrome AD, and to test its applicability to multicenter data, we randomly extracted FDG-PET and MRI data of 28 AD patients and 28 healthy control subjects from the database provided by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and compared them to data of 21 patients with AD and 13 control subjects from our own Leipzig cohort. SVM classification using combined volume-of-interest information from FDG-PET and MRI based on comprehensive quantitative meta-analyses investigating dementia syndromes revealed a higher discrimination accuracy in comparison to single modality classification. For the ADNI dataset accuracy rates of up to 88% and for the Leipzig cohort of up to 100% were obtained. Classifiers trained on the ADNI data discriminated the Leipzig cohorts with an accuracy of 91%. In conclusion, our results suggest SVM classification based on quantitative meta-analyses of multicenter data as a valid method for individual AD diagnosis. Furthermore, combining imaging information from MRI and FDG-PET might substantially improve the accuracy of AD diagnosis.

A Process Analysis of Males and Females who Attended a Community Based Addiction Treatment Service: Towards an Expanded Paradigm

A process analysis was conducted in a community - based treatment programme for alcohol abuse. The aims of the study were: to evaluate assessment instruments and measures; to measure change following treatment; to monitor gender differences; to assess the importance of early and current relationships; and to evaluate the effects of therapists. Subjects (n=145, males 83/females 62) completed a semi-structured interview schedule, Severity of Alcohol Dependency Questionnaire (SADQ), Short Alcohol Dependence Data Questionnaire (SADD); General Health Questionnaire (GHQ 12), and Alcohol Problems Questionnaire (APQ). A further three non-standardised self-rated measures were devised by the author. Included was the opportunity to obtain qualitative data. Follow up data was collected at 3, 9 and 15 months following first assessment. The SADD, APQ and consumption measures using detailed drink diaries proved the most relevant assessment measures. Following treatment, there was significant reduction in clients' dependency levels at 3 months, maintained through 9 and 15 months. Key client-rated changes were progress in reducing consumption and alcohol problems leading to a better quality of life and health. Qualitative data augmented these quantitative results. Psychological and acquired cognitive behavioural skills emerged as the main reasons for positive change and the treatment programme was found to have played a significant role in their acquisition. It appears that addressing marital problems can lead to a reduction in alcohol dependency levels. Gender analysis showed that males and females were similar in demographic characteristics, alcohol history details and dependence levels. It was concluded that the differences found did not necessitate different treatment programmes for women. Early family relationships were more problematic for females. Therapist performance varied and that variance was reflected in their clients' outcomes.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.